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I always like (need) to have positive things to look forward to. Next week, Mrs Octave and I are headed off to NZ. This is nothing new, every year we do some kind of tour through and end up staying with our son, or we go on a road trip with our son. We are planning to do this later in the year or early next year; however, we have justified to ourselves an extra trip. My son and partner are having a new house built for them. They are painting the place themselves, and the builder has a quite detailed build schedule that they are adhering to strictly. My son and partner have 2 weeks to fully paint the interior, so we have (generously) offered to go over and help paint. We are really looking forward to inspecting the house because it is a little more high-tech than anything we have built or lived in. This house is a SIP build (structural insulated panel). The insulation rating is amazingly good. Another feature is that the house is amazingly airtight. The average Australian home is rated at 15.4; my son's house is 0.38. My initial question was, "Would not this mean that the air quickly became stale?" There is actually a ventilation system called an HRV (heat recovery ventilator), sometimes referred to as an ERV (energy recovery ventilator) Air is constantly pumped in. The air pumped out goes through a heat exchanger and scavenges the heat in the air going out. This place is so thermally efficient that they did calculations for the heat produced by their 2 desktop PCs (a plus in winter and a negative in summer). This house is being built on a jointly owned block that my son owns with is business partner and wife. They have lived in a huge house that is actually 2 houses in one for many years. The business partner couple already have a large house on this block. They are going to tie together their solar batteries and solar panels, which will equal an enormous 45Kw system. From this, they are planning to be at least partially energy independent. Charging 3 EVs has been factored in. Here is the site. The big house in the background has a bottom floor full of workshops for their joint projects. The engineering gear they have is mind- blowing. My son's partner Amazing double-glazed window facing the winter sun ( expensive, I imagine) Ventilation heat exchanger bits and pieces. This was the day they pressure-tested the house.

This is the age of modernist glaring white cabinets and tiles for every modern home. Imagine my surprise to stay at a recently renovated caravan park that is furnished in rustic federation shearer's quarters decor! Our mate OME has started a trend!

Great development if it works.

Can't work my wife out. First she says "Sure! Get yourself a tattoo." Now she's whining about the bagpipers in the garden.

I was on my way to work this morning and thought stuff it, I'm getting a coffee and going to have it at the beach before I start. My daughter told me on the phone it was -4c in tamworth, and here I get to wake up to 9c and this view. It was 14c by the time I got to the beach. I'm starting to catch on life is too short to let this stuff pass us by and work is not everything.

We have a fat white goldfish with a red cap which we've named Trump. Bit insulting to the fish, but they share the same hairstyle, IQ, and belly to height ratio. Also, they both open their mouth constantly but nothing intelligible comes out.

I particularly liked her role in 'To the Manor born". She and Peter Bowles were absolutely hilarious together.

Which is why neighbourhood batteries and a more distributed grid in general makes sense. Keep generation, storage and usage close where possible.

This is you being quick?

In spite of all the stuff going on so far, It's gone beyond just a case of 'What has tRump done now?'.... Quoted from Pearls & Wisdom: "a group of 36 senior neurologists, forensic psychiatrists, general psychiatrists and mental health professionals experienced in the diagnosis of cognitive disorders and evaluation of dangerousness, who had signed an earlier statement in 2024, issued an update on 30 April of this year. They cited examples of Trump’s “marked deterioration in cognitive functioning, evidenced by disorganised and tangential speech, rambling digressions, factual confusions, unexplained sudden changes of course in strategic matters, both national and international, episodes of apparent somnolence during crucial public proceeding. Grandiose and delusional beliefs, including assertions of infallibility…claims that his decision-making authority is unlimited – with no need to consider domestic and international laws and constrained only by his ‘own morality’. Severely impaired judgment and impulse control…Significant loss of self-control (disinhibition) and getting stuck on the same thoughts or actions, unable to let go or move on (perseveration), including seemingly compulsive, manic-like late-night communications – e.g., 150 social media posts in one night.” They conclude: “it is our expert opinion that Donald J. Trump is mentally unfit to be the President of the United States, and that steps to remove him from office must be undertaken with the greatest urgency”. And this bloke has 24/7/365 access to instantly start launching numerous preplanned nuclear ATTACKS. https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/07/for-president-trump-starting-nuclear-war-as-easy-as-sending-a-tweet/

Why are we surprised? Trump admires dictators and despots. He has stripped the top level of administration of anyone with knowledge and brains, and replaced them with yes-men. The only required attribute is loyalty (and tribute). He has openly said that the American public won't have to vote again, and is actively dismantling democracy. He has used his position to gain him and his equally disgusting family billions - the most corrupt public figure, let alone president, ever. He supports and enables the worst white supremacists in the country, allows and encourages political violence when it's against his adversaries, and is racist himself. And we're surprised when something like this happens?

It's a bit cool here in Nyngan. We are camped by the river, enjoying a glass of red whilst dinner simmers on our little fire pot. Life's good.

So when my son and partner picked us up from the airport they were planning to go to their sea shanty at the pub club. They asked if we would like to come? We had a brilliant time drinking beer and singing shanties. Many obscure shanties. They also make up the verses for the crowd to join in at the chorus. They have written shanties about public transport and current political issues. The crowd varies in age from 10 to very old. Most people seem to be in their 20s or 30s They sang this shanty bellow in honour token Australian. We had an absolute ball and intend to find a club like this near us.

Just pointing out something many may not have known.

Have been visiting the extended family. Well at least those around SEQ. Really enjoying catching up with all. Especially the younger ones. Last night we booked in to a Gold Coast hotel for a rest. In spite of my general dislike for this part of the world, it is nice to wake up to the sound of surf on a beach.

Nah, he just edited out all his keyboard errors.

Did you know.... If you spell Absolutely Nothing backwards, you get.... "Gnighton Yletulosba", which means....... Absolutely Nothing!

My wife once told me, "Sex is more fun on holidays". It wasn't the best postcard I've ever received

I loved Penelope Keith.

Jerry? Is that you?

To appreciate The Goodies one had to have been exposed to English humour. The show involving pizza and hot dogs suggests to me that it was American, and we all know that American humour is not as intelligent as that of the British. The British made excellent children's programmes. Did anyone ever watch Worzel Gummage starring Jon Pertwee and Una Stubbs? Pertwee was, of course the third Dr Who.

You have to hand it to short people..... They can't reach it themselves.

Some people don't get what a will is........ I mean, come on, it's a dead giveaway.

No one I know Mentioned it. Men's shed tomorrow. I'll ask there. They did something like this over 20 years ago. I was randomly selected to be on the group in the MT Macedon area that formulated various aspects of it. The idea has Merit.. I support the idea of doing such things. It's acting responsibly. Nev.

I don't have a lot of time, so. I will try to be quick (given I have only skimmed the posts since OME asked the question). The algorithm is not predictive in the sense of predicting the future. The predict what you meant by what you typed, and whether or not their response will make sense. For example, if you asked how many legs a dog normally has, it will predict that 4 is the correct answer; not that my some genetic mutation caused by increasing radiation in the atmosphere, they will grow 5 legs in the future. Well, not unless you ask it, anyway. But even if you did, it would use existing data to try and predict the correct answer based on the data it has, not to perform its own scientific analysis and determine for itself. It may take the factors and apply it to an existing theory to mimic scientific analysis and intelligent conclusion drawing, but it is not doing that itself. In terms of AI implementation, it is likely to be a lower level language such as C or C++ = not python because it is too slow; the end point AI functions can be done in Python, but that is on a precomputed large dataset - usually. The algorithm will be surprising small.. usual Bayes theorem or something similar. It is able to be repeated over billions of nodes - or data points. The code will likely be recursive in building the precomputed data set to apply simpler probability maps across the data you provide. And it will likely be recursive in using that map to answer your question. By recursion we mean the same code calls itself.. So, you will be able to crawl heterogenous data sets, over and over using the same code developing deep nested stacks (well, heaps to be accurate) of responses from which it will map as many of the different types of data that can be used to probably represent what ever bit of data it actually is. Tagging data is old these days.. That is what these maps do. This of something like if you type the number 4 into your LLM. That is easy, because it is represented by whatever coding mechanism you are using... and there are only a handful of coding mechanisms - ASCII, EBCDIC (not used anymore) UTF-8, UTF-16 and a few others. But, they are translated to the discrete representation of 4 to AI. No thinking required. Now, say you provide it a scanned doc, which contains the number 4 somewhere. It has to read all of the pixels and look at the shape of each character to determine if it is a letter, number, whitespace, part of a diagram, etc. Say it worked out it was a digit. Now it was to work out what digit it is? It has to look through its maps/nodes and get the most likely digit it is.. it predicts what digit is is because it spits out a probability index of what it has been taught what that digit could possibly be, across any digit which it may match. Is it a 4, or is it a H.. It also has to take into account font. As you know, a 4 can be represented very differently in different fonts... So, the sort answer to your question is that there will be a set of probability algorithms that will read data, build probability maps, and then apply the same probability algorithms to inputs and compare to what it has learned. Machine learning means it constantly refines its probability maps. The technical implementation is likely to to be a lower level language (a lot of Python maths/stats libraries are written in C++).. and there will be a lot of recursion.

How do you writ up the insurance claim?

I knew I liked De Havillands for.some reason

The Trump administration has just instructed the FBI not to investigate any incidents involving ICE anymore, saying that ICE will do that themselves. That’s not going to work out well. ICE is becoming Trump’s racist paramilitary wing like Hitler’s brownshirts.

All things considered, I find gravity somewhat attractive.. It creates an atmosphere all of it's own. Nev

Some guys formed a band they called 999 megabytes. Still haven't got a gig.

That's my excuse too. I'm really much younger than I look.

Well, a week has passed since I arrived on these fair shores.. I decided to travel up to Tocumwal today to look at some land that may feature in my retirement. But, a nice surprise - I reconnected with my ab initio flight instructor of over 30 years ago! It was fantastic to meet up We flapped the gums chatted about old times and of course our different journeys; and I happen to be in town of the evening of the local aero club meet. So, will do the three S's and trundle off shortly to meet the local aviation fraternity, Doesn't get much better than that!

We messaged our son in NZ to remind him of our flight details. My wife referred to us as FIFO workers. My son's message back was "f***ing Australians, coming here and taking all the jobs"😆

In similar news, because I was born with brown eyes I've never had a period.

From the Guardian...

In a post near the beginning of this thread I mentioned that I became interested in photography when a workmate of my father gave me a 35mm camera. Neoca 35mm - my first camera I later purchased a twin lens reflex camera which took a 2+1//4" film negative. I never got into film processing, taking my negatives and transparency films to a chemist or camera shop for processing. Twin lens reflex Then I went digital so I could do post processing on the computer. I bought a Panasonic Lumix FZ20 camera which had a 12x zoom lens, great for airport photos. Unfortunately I lost it at an Avalon Air Show. It was a particularly hot day, and at the end of the show I was heading to the exit, suffering from a bit of heat exhaustion. A staff person on a golf buggy offered me a lift to the first aid room. I placed all my goods, chair, esky, camera, etc. on the back seat. When we got to the first aid room the camera was missing. I was pretty devistated. I assumed it had fallen off when we bumped over a gutter. My wife found a secondhand Lumix FZ40 which had a 24x zoom lens in the Trading Post for much less than I paid for the FZ20. It had belonged to the late father of the advertiser. That is the camera I use today in addition to my phone cameras. Lumix FZ40 I have an old iPhone 6 whichhas been decommossioned as a phone, it has no sim card. However it takes good photos, is small and light and fits in a tee shirt pocket, and is very easy to transfer images to the computer. My actual phone, a Samsung Galaxy, takes probably slightly better photos than the iPhone, but is large, heavy, like a brick to carry, and is a nightmare to transfer photos.

Just catching up on this thread. Apart from some misstated knowledge of the First Nations' which I will deal with later, there are three main threads of negative impact immigration. The first is the impact on the housing market and how it pushes up prices. The recent developments of tax changes have already seemed to knock that one on the head, but it is too early to determine if that is the case, and I will explain why in a second. But, as a rough and ready set of numbers, I got Google to give me the following in a table: So, what does it compare (all sourced from ABS data): Each year from 2000 to 2025 EOFY. The net migration into Australia The natural increase in the population (non-immigrants) Net dwelling additions to Australia - that means number of new dwellings built minus the number of those demolished. The average number of people per immigrant household The average number of people per non-immigrant household The new immigrant homes needed based on the number of immigrants divided by the average household size The new homes needed for non immigrant families The surplus or deficit of new dwellings built minus the sum of immigrant and non-immigrant houses required. This is rough and ready by any measure. For example, we don't take into account the number of bedrooms per new dwelling. But on this measure, only 6 of the 26 years there was a deficity in the number of new dwellings constructed versus the estimated new homes required across both the immigrant and non immgrant dwellings required. The biggest deficit was 77k homes in 2022-23, immediately after Covid. Pre-Covid, the biggest deficit was 7.5K. The biggest surplus was 142,500 dwellings in a year! With the exception of 2024-25, which ad a small surplus of 2,700 most years of surplus were well into the 10s of thousands. This is especially important because of the compounding effect. Every year, immigrants come, and then the next year some/many will have a baby or 2. That baby further increases the population. That is reflected in the domestic and not immigrant size and skews the figures at is is deemed one domestic person in the household of domestic population.. and increases the number of dwellings required according to the stats. These are two examples of statistical error, but the numbers of surpluses involved for the amount of years would indicate that the issue of immigration on housing in de minimis; or marginal at best. There goes that claim that immigration has a big impact on the housing costs. The second, on crime, it is hard to get stats. The reason why is because an immigrant is considered someone who is born overseas, and with young kids committing crimes, many may well be born in Australia and considered part of the domestic population. In addition, the ABS does not publish statistics by ethnic origin. So the best I could come up with is this from AI: It's not much, but it points to a debunking of the myths. My anecdotal observations in the UK is that crime, with the exception of hate crime, is linked more to socio-economic issues than specific ethinic backgrounds. But like Australia, the UK statistics Office doesn't publish such information, at least according to Google. The third is the dilution of Aussie culture ("traditional Australian"). This is a little too subjective for me; the behaviour of Aussies differs on socio-economic and location. Just look at Melbourne Football club members, for example. And if you think Aussies are laid back, well, they weren't compared to their UK cousins, at least pre Covid, that is for sure. But, that was my impression. And, they certainly don't or didn't swear anywhere near that of the Brit, nor did they drink anywhere near as much, either (NT excepted, I guess).. Again, that was my observation, which may be different to yours. But I get the feeling Aussies have this view of themselves as somehow unique.. My travels have busted that myth to me. However, I do get that people who have a vastly different culture and physical appearance can come across as not integrating with the local culture. There is a difference between people coming here and doing well, and people coming here, doing well, and integrating. But that does not mean they have to not wear what they want (Australia is about freedom of choice, right). Nor does it mean they need to fit into everything a "traditional Aussie" would do.. Many years ago, if you didn't smoke, you weren't Australian.. Despite the tobacco wars, there has been a big shift in attitudes to smoking, drinking, and I think those with massive muscly cars are considered either bogans or correcting for other deficiencies. I doubt much of this is the result of immigration., yet our cultural values have changed. Even marital rape is now illegal all over Australia since 1996 (though it was progressively made illegal from 1976). Think about it.. Marital rape was acceptable in modern Australia. Sometimes, it is good to have a cultural change.

"English is what happens when Vikings learn Latin and use it to shout at Germans, and then the French shout back!"

Ah... The smoke must have escaped the system. Just go to the dark side and buy a BMW. Here is my little beast K1200R 21 years old and 121,000 km and feels like new.

All I can say is 'Yep, He did this'..... Tomahawk cruise missile. The United States burned through over 1,000 Tomahawks in Iran — ten years’ worth of production. Each one’s fin actuators run on samarium-cobalt magnets. China mines and refines 99% of the world’s samarium and placed it under export licensing on April 4, 2025. To rebuild the inventory, Raytheon must turn to Beijing for samarium. Patriot PAC-3 interceptor. The seeker uses samarium-cobalt (SmCo) to slew its guidance head; the radar’s traveling-wave tubes use SmCo to focus the microwave beam; yttrium-iron-garnet phase shifters tune the array. Replenishing the 1,200-plus interceptors expended in Iran requires roughly 1.2 to 2.4 tons of high-temperature SmCo, plus yttrium oxide. Between 2020 and 2023, China supplied 93% of U.S. yttrium imports. JASSM-ER stealth cruise missile. The fin servos and seeker run on neodymium-iron-boron magnets (NdFB) doped with dysprosium and terbium for thermal stability. Strip out the heavy rare earths, and the magnet demagnetizes in flight. Roughly 1,100 missiles expended translates to between 1.5 and 3 tons of NdFeB feedstock. China refines the vast majority of the world’s dysprosium and terbium. F-35 Lightning II. For a decade, the Department of Defense itself has repeated that each F-35 contains 920 pounds of rare earths. The strategically critical content is the high-temperature SmCo and dysprosium-doped NdFeB in the engine actuators, electric drives, and radar. These are materials Beijing has placed under license. So US used up most of their ammo in Iran and now need China's permission to reload.

Well, positives are things are slowly moving forward. Currently preparing for Wednesday's flight to Melbourne. I realise it has been 8 years since I have been to Aus. Ship! Time flies. Not going to tell you which day in case you alert immigration 🤣 Although I could be out for as much as a month, I will be travelling light - hoping to get away with carry on only. I don't think I will, so it will probably be a small backpack. Also, on the reno front, things are picking up. I am not sure if I mentioned the need to rewire a floor of the house. Not a terribly big job, but more cost. That was found when they pulled a fuse board out to replace with one up to current regs. The spaghetti behind it, including a circuit that bypassed it altogether made some of my early coding deliverables took well written. We have found a tradie who is working through stuff. He has done these doors we had to put in for building regs; but the building inspector allowed us to not procure fireproof doors or even install them to be a barrier against fire spreading as the listed (heritage) building officer would be dead set against them even being installed. And that is the regulatory environment we are up against. Now, the downstairs loo and bootroom, that I made major progress on until work really heated up are done, and the formal living room is under way. If this fella keeps it up, I think we will be done by mid August and ti will be on the market. And he is doing a good job, too. And on the work front, an opportunity to climb the greasy corporate ladder opened up. I was invited to apply, but because of my plans, declined. I was supporting the application of a colleague, but it looks like he won;t get it either, and it will be an outsider. Which is fantastic, because that person will be both of our manager. Things are transforming at work where it will slim down in the not too distant future. I have already been implementing a succession plan where today, apart from being the doyen of our delivery function, my reports are coming right up the curve and even a contractor has been earmarked to be a sucessor. So, a new person in that almost exec role will want to stamp his or her authority and make changes - and as I don't feel I owe that person anything, the conversation will be something like "don't let anyone go on my account." Employment laws will mean they will have to make me redundant - and that will mean enough to accelerate this reno and put it on the market and take a little while to sell. Even if the latter (which I have been trying to engineer for about 12 months now) doesn't work, I am hoping by the end of the year, it will be all done and dusted.

How can we have a half decent argument if you say stuff like this?

I always fact check everything anyone writes and I hope people will fact check what I post. Your figures are correct but with some caveats. In the following, I have omitted the calculations that validate your figres because as I say, they are correct. I am happy to provide links. What is potentially misleading? The statistics themselves are not wrong, but they can be misleading if they're presented without context. 1. China is much larger than it was in 1980 Since 1980: GDP has grown by roughly 50–60× (in current US dollars). Industrial output has exploded. Electricity demand has increased enormously. Hundreds of millions of people have moved into cities. An eight-fold increase in coal use is partly a reflection of China's enormous economic expansion. 2. Coal is growing, but so are renewables One of the unusual features of China's energy system is that both statements are true: China consumes more coal than ever. China is also installing renewable energy faster than the rest of the world combined. In 2024 alone China added approximately: 277 GW of solar 79 GW of wind bringing total new wind and solar additions to 356 GW in a single year. Non-fossil sources accounted for 56% of installed generating capacity, although fossil fuels still produced about 63% of electricity generation because coal plants are used more consistently. 3. Coal consumption isn't the same as coal-fired electricity Coal in China is used for: electricity generation steel production cement chemicals industrial heat Someone using these figures to argue that "China is building huge numbers of coal power stations" is oversimplifying. The statistics refer to total coal consumption, not just coal burned for electricity. 4. Coal's share of China's energy is slowly falling Even though the absolute amount of coal keeps increasing, coal is gradually making up a smaller share of China's total energy mix because renewables, nuclear, and natural gas are growing even faster. Overall assessment I'd rate the statement as: ✅ The numerical data are accurate (assuming the EIA dataset is the source). ✅ The 4% increase is correct. ✅ The eight-fold increase since 1980 is correct. ⚠️ It omits important context, namely that China is simultaneously undergoing the world's largest expansion of renewable energy while still increasing coal use to meet rapidly growing electricity and industrial demand.

Let me see if I have got this straight.. your position is that fossils/nuclear provide energy security over renewables (and its related tech)? If that is so, then the above post sort of throws that out the window faster than a Putin dissident. Scotland are paying power stations to mot produce power because of a failure to plan execution of upgrading to renewables. They asked to have all this extra capacity in the form of renewables added to the grid that cannot handle it. That is a policy or politics failure. Not a renewables can't meet "baseload" failure. It is akin to building a new suburb with only bicycle lanes but to be extra green, adding driveways with electric car chargers and declaring it an ice car free green suburb - and they crying EV cars aren't practical transport for a suburban life. That is called overpaying or underinvesting in energy security... the payments they make to compensate the owners for the governments cock up probably would have gone a decent way to grid upgrades. On the other hand, Raring power station was availing itself of a government guarantee because, even presumably fully amortised, wasn't predicted to be economically viable (ie produce power at a price that others could and make money).. in the supposed economically most effective way being a privatised market. Isn't that the government being tapped by the fossil fuel industry for energy security? BTW, Origin don't currently opt into the scheme as they are predicting, again fully amortised, it will not lose money We can find individual cases with all forms of generation that have not gone to plan or need a bail out. And all forms receive some form of government subsidy. That is policy because of energy security

Into the above arguments, we could factor in the rapid adoption of home batteries. According to one report there are about 400,000 home batteries installed in the first half of 2026. This alone must noticably reduce peak load on the NEM. Consequently, lowering peaking generation and therefore driving down overall retail electricity prices even for non solar householders. Even small home batteries are designed to reduce peak load on the grid. Sure, it isn't a complete transition to 'intermittents'. But the trend is gathering momentum in the right direction.