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I always like (need) to have positive things to look forward to. Next week, Mrs Octave and I are headed off to NZ. This is nothing new, every year we do some kind of tour through and end up staying with our son, or we go on a road trip with our son. We are planning to do this later in the year or early next year; however, we have justified to ourselves an extra trip. My son and partner are having a new house built for them. They are painting the place themselves, and the builder has a quite detailed build schedule that they are adhering to strictly. My son and partner have 2 weeks to fully paint the interior, so we have (generously) offered to go over and help paint. We are really looking forward to inspecting the house because it is a little more high-tech than anything we have built or lived in. This house is a SIP build (structural insulated panel). The insulation rating is amazingly good. Another feature is that the house is amazingly airtight. The average Australian home is rated at 15.4; my son's house is 0.38. My initial question was, "Would not this mean that the air quickly became stale?" There is actually a ventilation system called an HRV (heat recovery ventilator), sometimes referred to as an ERV (energy recovery ventilator) Air is constantly pumped in. The air pumped out goes through a heat exchanger and scavenges the heat in the air going out. This place is so thermally efficient that they did calculations for the heat produced by their 2 desktop PCs (a plus in winter and a negative in summer). This house is being built on a jointly owned block that my son owns with is business partner and wife. They have lived in a huge house that is actually 2 houses in one for many years. The business partner couple already have a large house on this block. They are going to tie together their solar batteries and solar panels, which will equal an enormous 45Kw system. From this, they are planning to be at least partially energy independent. Charging 3 EVs has been factored in. Here is the site. The big house in the background has a bottom floor full of workshops for their joint projects. The engineering gear they have is mind- blowing. My son's partner Amazing double-glazed window facing the winter sun ( expensive, I imagine) Ventilation heat exchanger bits and pieces. This was the day they pressure-tested the house.

This is the age of modernist glaring white cabinets and tiles for every modern home. Imagine my surprise to stay at a recently renovated caravan park that is furnished in rustic federation shearer's quarters decor! Our mate OME has started a trend!

Great development if it works.

Can't work my wife out. First she says "Sure! Get yourself a tattoo." Now she's whining about the bagpipers in the garden.

I was on my way to work this morning and thought stuff it, I'm getting a coffee and going to have it at the beach before I start. My daughter told me on the phone it was -4c in tamworth, and here I get to wake up to 9c and this view. It was 14c by the time I got to the beach. I'm starting to catch on life is too short to let this stuff pass us by and work is not everything.

We have a fat white goldfish with a red cap which we've named Trump. Bit insulting to the fish, but they share the same hairstyle, IQ, and belly to height ratio. Also, they both open their mouth constantly but nothing intelligible comes out.

I particularly liked her role in 'To the Manor born". She and Peter Bowles were absolutely hilarious together.

Which is why neighbourhood batteries and a more distributed grid in general makes sense. Keep generation, storage and usage close where possible.

This is you being quick?

In spite of all the stuff going on so far, It's gone beyond just a case of 'What has tRump done now?'.... Quoted from Pearls & Wisdom: "a group of 36 senior neurologists, forensic psychiatrists, general psychiatrists and mental health professionals experienced in the diagnosis of cognitive disorders and evaluation of dangerousness, who had signed an earlier statement in 2024, issued an update on 30 April of this year. They cited examples of Trump’s “marked deterioration in cognitive functioning, evidenced by disorganised and tangential speech, rambling digressions, factual confusions, unexplained sudden changes of course in strategic matters, both national and international, episodes of apparent somnolence during crucial public proceeding. Grandiose and delusional beliefs, including assertions of infallibility…claims that his decision-making authority is unlimited – with no need to consider domestic and international laws and constrained only by his ‘own morality’. Severely impaired judgment and impulse control…Significant loss of self-control (disinhibition) and getting stuck on the same thoughts or actions, unable to let go or move on (perseveration), including seemingly compulsive, manic-like late-night communications – e.g., 150 social media posts in one night.” They conclude: “it is our expert opinion that Donald J. Trump is mentally unfit to be the President of the United States, and that steps to remove him from office must be undertaken with the greatest urgency”. And this bloke has 24/7/365 access to instantly start launching numerous preplanned nuclear ATTACKS. https://johnmenadue.com/post/2026/07/for-president-trump-starting-nuclear-war-as-easy-as-sending-a-tweet/

Why are we surprised? Trump admires dictators and despots. He has stripped the top level of administration of anyone with knowledge and brains, and replaced them with yes-men. The only required attribute is loyalty (and tribute). He has openly said that the American public won't have to vote again, and is actively dismantling democracy. He has used his position to gain him and his equally disgusting family billions - the most corrupt public figure, let alone president, ever. He supports and enables the worst white supremacists in the country, allows and encourages political violence when it's against his adversaries, and is racist himself. And we're surprised when something like this happens?

It's a bit cool here in Nyngan. We are camped by the river, enjoying a glass of red whilst dinner simmers on our little fire pot. Life's good.

So when my son and partner picked us up from the airport they were planning to go to their sea shanty at the pub club. They asked if we would like to come? We had a brilliant time drinking beer and singing shanties. Many obscure shanties. They also make up the verses for the crowd to join in at the chorus. They have written shanties about public transport and current political issues. The crowd varies in age from 10 to very old. Most people seem to be in their 20s or 30s They sang this shanty bellow in honour token Australian. We had an absolute ball and intend to find a club like this near us.

Just pointing out something many may not have known.

Have been visiting the extended family. Well at least those around SEQ. Really enjoying catching up with all. Especially the younger ones. Last night we booked in to a Gold Coast hotel for a rest. In spite of my general dislike for this part of the world, it is nice to wake up to the sound of surf on a beach.

Nah, he just edited out all his keyboard errors.

Did you know.... If you spell Absolutely Nothing backwards, you get.... "Gnighton Yletulosba", which means....... Absolutely Nothing!

My wife once told me, "Sex is more fun on holidays". It wasn't the best postcard I've ever received

I loved Penelope Keith.

Jerry? Is that you?

What is happening in the ME will give a real Impetus to EV sales. People don't want to be hung out to dry every time someone does silly things with supply.. Nev

To appreciate The Goodies one had to have been exposed to English humour. The show involving pizza and hot dogs suggests to me that it was American, and we all know that American humour is not as intelligent as that of the British. The British made excellent children's programmes. Did anyone ever watch Worzel Gummage starring Jon Pertwee and Una Stubbs? Pertwee was, of course the third Dr Who.

You have to hand it to short people..... They can't reach it themselves.

No one I know Mentioned it. Men's shed tomorrow. I'll ask there. They did something like this over 20 years ago. I was randomly selected to be on the group in the MT Macedon area that formulated various aspects of it. The idea has Merit.. I support the idea of doing such things. It's acting responsibly. Nev.

I don't have a lot of time, so. I will try to be quick (given I have only skimmed the posts since OME asked the question). The algorithm is not predictive in the sense of predicting the future. The predict what you meant by what you typed, and whether or not their response will make sense. For example, if you asked how many legs a dog normally has, it will predict that 4 is the correct answer; not that my some genetic mutation caused by increasing radiation in the atmosphere, they will grow 5 legs in the future. Well, not unless you ask it, anyway. But even if you did, it would use existing data to try and predict the correct answer based on the data it has, not to perform its own scientific analysis and determine for itself. It may take the factors and apply it to an existing theory to mimic scientific analysis and intelligent conclusion drawing, but it is not doing that itself. In terms of AI implementation, it is likely to be a lower level language such as C or C++ = not python because it is too slow; the end point AI functions can be done in Python, but that is on a precomputed large dataset - usually. The algorithm will be surprising small.. usual Bayes theorem or something similar. It is able to be repeated over billions of nodes - or data points. The code will likely be recursive in building the precomputed data set to apply simpler probability maps across the data you provide. And it will likely be recursive in using that map to answer your question. By recursion we mean the same code calls itself.. So, you will be able to crawl heterogenous data sets, over and over using the same code developing deep nested stacks (well, heaps to be accurate) of responses from which it will map as many of the different types of data that can be used to probably represent what ever bit of data it actually is. Tagging data is old these days.. That is what these maps do. This of something like if you type the number 4 into your LLM. That is easy, because it is represented by whatever coding mechanism you are using... and there are only a handful of coding mechanisms - ASCII, EBCDIC (not used anymore) UTF-8, UTF-16 and a few others. But, they are translated to the discrete representation of 4 to AI. No thinking required. Now, say you provide it a scanned doc, which contains the number 4 somewhere. It has to read all of the pixels and look at the shape of each character to determine if it is a letter, number, whitespace, part of a diagram, etc. Say it worked out it was a digit. Now it was to work out what digit it is? It has to look through its maps/nodes and get the most likely digit it is.. it predicts what digit is is because it spits out a probability index of what it has been taught what that digit could possibly be, across any digit which it may match. Is it a 4, or is it a H.. It also has to take into account font. As you know, a 4 can be represented very differently in different fonts... So, the sort answer to your question is that there will be a set of probability algorithms that will read data, build probability maps, and then apply the same probability algorithms to inputs and compare to what it has learned. Machine learning means it constantly refines its probability maps. The technical implementation is likely to to be a lower level language (a lot of Python maths/stats libraries are written in C++).. and there will be a lot of recursion.

A husband walks into Victoria’s Secret to buy his wife a sheer nightgown. The clerk shows him several options ranging from $250 to $500 - the more sheer, the higher the price. He picks the sheerest one for $500 and heads home. He gives it to his wife and asks her to go upstairs, try it on, and model it for him. Upstairs, his wife thinks, "It's so sheer it might as well be nothing! I'll just model naked, return it tomorrow, and keep the $500 refund for myself." She appears naked on the balcony and strikes a pose. The husband looks up and says, "Good grief! For $500, you'd think they'd at least iron it!" He didn't see the punch coming and should be able to see out of at least one eye by the weekend.

How do you writ up the insurance claim?

I knew I liked De Havillands for.some reason

No point posting them here then, Nev.

The first thing they'd do is start sending friendly emails to random blokes......

I took an instructional flight from Moorabbin today. To be honest, there's a lot I could write in the gripes thread, particularly around a) the commerical properties that have gone up, and b) the introduction of landing fees. The urban sprawl is there - the training area has less and less open country. But, that is progress. But, the flight was quite a good one. Just practiced stalls and forced landings.. Didn't die, to that is a positive (for some, I guess not ;-)) The young instructor was very professional and a natural instructor.. sad that an airline or other jet career beckons.. The flight was in an Archer with full EFIS.. Took a bit of getting used to - to be honest would need a bit more time to get comfy with it (and a manual and some prep time). Weather played ball as well.

The Trump administration has just instructed the FBI not to investigate any incidents involving ICE anymore, saying that ICE will do that themselves. That’s not going to work out well. ICE is becoming Trump’s racist paramilitary wing like Hitler’s brownshirts.

Some guys formed a band they called 999 megabytes. Still haven't got a gig.

The Republicans wish he'd stop going on about the 2020 election because it's not helping their chances, but at the same time he's doing everything he can to rig the November election beforehand and scheming to disrupt the results if the Democrats look like winning. He's trying every trick in the book to assert his control over the States' ability to run their elections, but fortunately a large number of State governors, both Democrat and Republican are determined to keep him out of it and ensure their elections are run fairly. It's amazing how in Trump's world, elections are only free and fair when he and the Republicans win but rigged beyond recovery when they lose.

Well, a week has passed since I arrived on these fair shores.. I decided to travel up to Tocumwal today to look at some land that may feature in my retirement. But, a nice surprise - I reconnected with my ab initio flight instructor of over 30 years ago! It was fantastic to meet up We flapped the gums chatted about old times and of course our different journeys; and I happen to be in town of the evening of the local aero club meet. So, will do the three S's and trundle off shortly to meet the local aviation fraternity, Doesn't get much better than that!

We messaged our son in NZ to remind him of our flight details. My wife referred to us as FIFO workers. My son's message back was "f***ing Australians, coming here and taking all the jobs"😆

From the Guardian...

My Dad had one also, it was his first rangefinder camera after trying to use an old clapped out bakelite camera that someone must have given him. He took lots of family photos with the Neoca during the 1950s. In his latter years he gave me all the negatives which I still have, stored safely. He developed them himself and they look pretty good. Unfortunately Dad's Neoca was stolen, so, for nostalgia, I bought one as part of my collection, and also as a bit of family memorabilia.

Nuclear puts out a lot of heat and needs water, cost heaps to build reflected in the Price Private enterprise wants to do it. Nuclear test site will remain dangerous forever, effectively.Can't be used for quick response either, like Batteries or Hydro. Todays demand fluctuates wildly. Nev

I wish someone would tip a barrowload of sand on each of those Trevago guys.

As I was creeping into bed, she asked, "You are drunk again, aren't you!". "What makes you think that?", I asked defensively. "You live nest door."

"English is what happens when Vikings learn Latin and use it to shout at Germans, and then the French shout back!"

Ah... The smoke must have escaped the system. Just go to the dark side and buy a BMW. Here is my little beast K1200R 21 years old and 121,000 km and feels like new.

Well, positives are things are slowly moving forward. Currently preparing for Wednesday's flight to Melbourne. I realise it has been 8 years since I have been to Aus. Ship! Time flies. Not going to tell you which day in case you alert immigration 🤣 Although I could be out for as much as a month, I will be travelling light - hoping to get away with carry on only. I don't think I will, so it will probably be a small backpack. Also, on the reno front, things are picking up. I am not sure if I mentioned the need to rewire a floor of the house. Not a terribly big job, but more cost. That was found when they pulled a fuse board out to replace with one up to current regs. The spaghetti behind it, including a circuit that bypassed it altogether made some of my early coding deliverables took well written. We have found a tradie who is working through stuff. He has done these doors we had to put in for building regs; but the building inspector allowed us to not procure fireproof doors or even install them to be a barrier against fire spreading as the listed (heritage) building officer would be dead set against them even being installed. And that is the regulatory environment we are up against. Now, the downstairs loo and bootroom, that I made major progress on until work really heated up are done, and the formal living room is under way. If this fella keeps it up, I think we will be done by mid August and ti will be on the market. And he is doing a good job, too. And on the work front, an opportunity to climb the greasy corporate ladder opened up. I was invited to apply, but because of my plans, declined. I was supporting the application of a colleague, but it looks like he won;t get it either, and it will be an outsider. Which is fantastic, because that person will be both of our manager. Things are transforming at work where it will slim down in the not too distant future. I have already been implementing a succession plan where today, apart from being the doyen of our delivery function, my reports are coming right up the curve and even a contractor has been earmarked to be a sucessor. So, a new person in that almost exec role will want to stamp his or her authority and make changes - and as I don't feel I owe that person anything, the conversation will be something like "don't let anyone go on my account." Employment laws will mean they will have to make me redundant - and that will mean enough to accelerate this reno and put it on the market and take a little while to sell. Even if the latter (which I have been trying to engineer for about 12 months now) doesn't work, I am hoping by the end of the year, it will be all done and dusted.

Our discussion around climate change has centred on power generation and ICE cars v EVs. But, it is a muilt-pronged approach required. As the rest of the world clears its heat sink, China is building its up: https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/plants/trees-in-chinas-great-green-wall-appear-to-grow-faster-than-natural-forests-study-finds Where fossil or nuclear makes sense, it should be used. The reality with today's technology, there are fewer and fewer places it makes sense. And should the political shift to drive a shift to local storage and distribution, the use of rapidly outdating technologies will make even less sense. We talk about the economics of doing it, but we rarely talk about the economics of not doing it. And economics is man made, anyway... the real cost (ie. outcomes) of not doing will lead to socio-economic costs far beyond the pure economic cost of doing it.

I always fact check everything anyone writes and I hope people will fact check what I post. Your figures are correct but with some caveats. In the following, I have omitted the calculations that validate your figres because as I say, they are correct. I am happy to provide links. What is potentially misleading? The statistics themselves are not wrong, but they can be misleading if they're presented without context. 1. China is much larger than it was in 1980 Since 1980: GDP has grown by roughly 50–60× (in current US dollars). Industrial output has exploded. Electricity demand has increased enormously. Hundreds of millions of people have moved into cities. An eight-fold increase in coal use is partly a reflection of China's enormous economic expansion. 2. Coal is growing, but so are renewables One of the unusual features of China's energy system is that both statements are true: China consumes more coal than ever. China is also installing renewable energy faster than the rest of the world combined. In 2024 alone China added approximately: 277 GW of solar 79 GW of wind bringing total new wind and solar additions to 356 GW in a single year. Non-fossil sources accounted for 56% of installed generating capacity, although fossil fuels still produced about 63% of electricity generation because coal plants are used more consistently. 3. Coal consumption isn't the same as coal-fired electricity Coal in China is used for: electricity generation steel production cement chemicals industrial heat Someone using these figures to argue that "China is building huge numbers of coal power stations" is oversimplifying. The statistics refer to total coal consumption, not just coal burned for electricity. 4. Coal's share of China's energy is slowly falling Even though the absolute amount of coal keeps increasing, coal is gradually making up a smaller share of China's total energy mix because renewables, nuclear, and natural gas are growing even faster. Overall assessment I'd rate the statement as: ✅ The numerical data are accurate (assuming the EIA dataset is the source). ✅ The 4% increase is correct. ✅ The eight-fold increase since 1980 is correct. ⚠️ It omits important context, namely that China is simultaneously undergoing the world's largest expansion of renewable energy while still increasing coal use to meet rapidly growing electricity and industrial demand.

That is a bold claim to make without evidence. The short answer is no. There is no credible estimate that connecting Snowy Hydro 2.0 to consumers requires $1 trillion in grid upgrades. Here's where the claim appears to come from. What Snowy Hydro 2.0 actually costs The project has experienced enormous cost overruns: Original estimate (2017): $2 billion Revised estimate (2023): $12 billion Snowy Hydro now acknowledges the final cost will be higher than $12 billion. Some independent analysts (Bruce Mountain and Ted Woodley) estimate the total economic cost could reach around $42 billion, but this includes: construction, financing (interest), and Snowy 2.0's share of major transmission projects such as HumeLink and VNI West. Even critics of the project are talking about tens of billions, not hundreds of billions. Where does the "$1 trillion" come from? There are a couple of possibilities. 1. Confusing Snowy 2.0 with the entire energy transition Some opinion pieces have argued that Australia's entire electricity transition—generation, transmission, storage, distribution upgrades and financing over decades—could approach very large figures. For example, one recent opinion article claimed: about $450 billion for transition infrastructure plus around $600 billion in financing costs and rounded this to roughly $1 trillion. It was not referring solely to connecting Snowy Hydro 2.0 to consumers. That estimate is controversial and is not an official government, AEMO or CSIRO estimate. 2. Simple exaggeration Sometimes numbers grow in online debates. Someone may have taken: "$42 billion for Snowy" plus "Australia's grid will need hundreds of billions of investment" and turned it into "Snowy needs a trillion dollars of transmission." There is no evidence for that statement. What do official bodies estimate for transmission? Australia does need significant transmission investment regardless of Snowy 2.0. AEMO's Integrated System Plan includes projects like: HumeLink VNI West Marinus Link EnergyConnect These collectively amount to tens of billions of dollars, not hundreds of billions for Snowy alone. The purpose is to connect new renewable generation across the National Electricity Market, not just Snowy Hydro. Is Snowy 2.0 competitive? That's a separate question. There are legitimate criticisms: huge cost blowouts years behind schedule uncertainty over final cost batteries have become much cheaper since Snowy 2.0 was conceived Many energy economists now question whether Snowy 2.0 would be approved if starting from scratch today. Others argue its enormous storage capacity and expected operating life (many decades) still make it valuable for grid reliability. The "$1 trillion to connect Snowy 2.0" claim isn't supported by any credible estimate. Even critics of the project put Snowy 2.0's total cost at around $40–42 billion, including construction, financing and associated transmission. The "$1 trillion" figure comes from some opinion pieces estimating the possible cost of Australia's entire long-term energy transition—not the cost of connecting Snowy Hydro 2.0 to consumers. They're two completely different claims. So I'd rate the original statement as: "Connecting Snowy Hydro 2.0 costs $1 trillion" → False "Snowy Hydro 2.0 has become extremely expensive" → True "Australia will need major transmission investment during the energy transition" → True "Those transmission costs are all because of Snowy Hydro 2.0" → False