Different pollsters ask slightly different questions, but a lot of them lately seem to be polling primary intentions and not preference direction. Gender and age group is usually asked for analysis. A lot of it is probably swayed by immediate events. For example, in the latest morgan poll, the Greens have picked up 3% and Labor is down 4. Morgans think that 3% Green gain at Labor's expense is because of Albo and Co. going all the way with DJT and the Greens taking a stance against the US/Israel strikes. Some of the analysis is interesting. There's been a trend for a while now of the youngest age group, 18-24, moving more to the right. The Greens and Labor have lost support in that group to One Nation, independants and others, but the Greens have gained in all groups 25+, whereas Labor has lost in all age groups and both genders. One Nation gained support in all age groups under 65. Some polls a couple of weeks ago showed ON gaining among young women more than young men. A bit of a reverse from it's historical male dominated support.
I think One Nation is the wild card, and come next election, they will have either fallen on their face or put egg on a lot of other faces. The Greens are what they are. What you see is what you'll always get, 10 to 12%. If Labor stuffs up enough, the Greens might get 15% briefly but they just don't appeal to enough of the population to acheive anything higher than balance of power in the Senate.
Nev, you're right about the Nats/Libs being in big trouble. At the moment they are well and truly wedged. All Labor has to do is sit tight and win. Of the small amount of Labor primary votes bleeding to the Greens, most would return in preferences. Labor would feel a lot more comfortable having the Greens on the left than the Coalition would feel having One Nation on the right. It's like the Coalition has driven their Ford Ranger into a parking space designed for little noddy cars, and now they're stuck and can't get out. Go to the right, they lose the centre, go to the left and they lose the right.
Interesting that the Nats have elected a Victorian moderate as deputy. More than likely for balance. Matt Canavan can talk the talk to try to woo voters back from One Nation, and Chester can try to butter up the Libs. Smoke and mirrors.