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I like the rest of your post, except for this bit. I think you are not allowing for the rapidly rising number of households that are what you call 'jumping the gun'. My solar and battery do all the smoothing needed for my intermittent solar. It has hardly stopped raining for a fortnight, and my battery dropped down to 80%. That is, nil from the grid in that time. A lot of people (finances permitting) are not waiting for the government to solve the problem.

There's Phase Balancing considerations also Lot's of Lost efficiency Possible there.. We have only just begun this Journey . Remember we used to have Horses and Carts or walk and only the very Rich had Cars . Now they are regarded as essential. Nev

Inverters don't contribute to the grid. Batteries help the grid because they smooth out peaks in consumption. There is a huge peak around the time people get home from work and cook dinner. Those people with their own batteries are helping by not contributing to this peak, and those who sell a portion of their stored electricity back to the grid are reducing the need to ramp up power stations or peaker plants. Most of the world is moving in this direction; can they all be wrong?

It would be a BIG Mistake to think that Those running IRAN are stupid.. It's clear where the Bulk of the stupidity resides. Nev

Midsomer.

I maintain that we produce a higher grade of bullshit than AI could.

We will sill need a doctor to sew up our wounds and set our bones. We will need teachers to show our children how to read and count. We will need plumbers to clear our blockes drains and sparkies to wire in our fuse boxes. Every new technology displaces those who performed the activity the is displaced. Humanity always finds something new to do that the technology hasn't caught up with. We are not looking at disaster. We are seeing new opportunities.

We are Not in NORMAL circumstances and it could get worse. Imagine the Hullabaloo if that Happened. Perhaps this will get us a bit weaned off fossil fuel where we can be Held to ransom at the whim and fancy of lots of people and have a cleaner World at the same time. Nev

Sadly, yes... Our village pub is a community pub, the villagers put their hands in their pocket (thankfully one villager is a very wealthy venture capitalist) and purchased the building for 1/3 it was bought by the previous landlord. And we did it up, and it is not bad, but unf. when these things are done by clique committees, the person making the decision on the decor transformed it from a rustic character country pub to a bland restaurant with a bar. Pubs in the UK are (or were), IMHO, a much nicer place to visit than similar ones at lest in the cities. They semed a lot more community focused and less just watering holes. There are historical reasons for this, but, society has transformed in a few ways. First, pubs were known as extensions of one's front (living) room. Because houses tended to be small, puns were where you and you family gathered with friends and their familiy to get together, or celebrate an occasion, etc. My partner noticed that Aussie pubs (both city and rural) were either gastro pubs or tended to be male centric, with women as an afterthought (she was very surprised to see ladies' lounges, for example). Also, though history, most pubs were inns, an under the Innkeepers Act (latest was 1878 before being superseded by the UK Hotel Proprietors Act in 1956), there was a duty to receive or lodge travellers - reasonable cost, etc. Of course, when they were full, they didn't have to receive more, but they couldn't not receive if they had a room or board. From this, British pubs, when I first arrived in the UK in '96, seemed quite welcoming. It was not unusual to have a conversation with strangers, or be invited to sit with people if you were alone. Beer and driking in general was the thing of younger people and it was a very social place. I am not saying Aussie pubs aren;t, but it seemed one needed more courage to go alone, and it would take some time before you branched beyonf yourself or your group to mingle. But, with higher taxes of pints pulled at a pub compared to buying in the supermarket, bigger houses, younger people moving away from drinking, and let's face it, some very ordinary publicans; the move towards a more refined experience, etc, pubs are under threat. I know a bloke who owns a chain of pubs - he does very well.. but they are all very classic/contemporary decorated, they have one or two beers at most and an extensive wine list, and the focus is on an upper mid-market dining experience. And they are all located in the heart of big city centres where there is money. It attracts yuppies - dinks or those with young kids and still money to spend. Since COVD, and the recent oil prices, he has struggled a bit, but still does OK. Our community pub has yet to turn a profit.. The issue is once food service is done - around 9pm, it virtually empties because most of the patronage are older people; the young ones either don't turn up or if they do, they then head off into town for the nightclubs. Similarly at the pub I stay at in Richmond, the publican, who has been there for 35 years, sees mainly older people - 40+ - and they don't drink as much as the younger set used to .

You are not wrong there. I booked a flight from Avalon to Adelaide return for $108. There was an even cheaper option, one way for $44. I did book this before the fuel crisis, though. This is obscenely cheap.

Flights are cheaper than is sustainable. . Make the Most of it if that's your thing. The Main purpose is to Appreciate where you Left. No one's interested to know where you've been or see your selfies. Lots of Places are ruined by Tourists especially from BIG UGLY Monster Cruise ships.. Nev

China is Probably doing the Sensible and Responsible thing more effectively than Most. Rent seekers in Corrupted Capitalist Places put a Brake on it to maintain their Profits They don't want competition which is what makes capitalism efficient and keeps costs down. Nev

I am not quite clear what you are saying here, but here is my understanding of it. During the day I am using my own electricity. My excess is sold to the grid for a tiny 8 cents a kWh, which they resell for 30ish cents a kWh. I appreciate that I am using the network; however, I would expect that the large disparity between the price they by my KWh and the price they resell takes into account the cost of the network of this transaction.

When i moved to my new property I installed a new solar array & a battery. Total cost after subsidies. $11,600.00. I have charged my EV exclusively from the solar supplemented by the battery when solar generation falls below 7kW. I am now a VPP (virtual power plant) & buy & sell energy on the wholesale market. Also for doing this I am getting another $675.00 rebate. The company I am with charges $25.00 a month to manage my system. I was getting 2.7c/kWh & now I get much more as I sell what is in the battery when the price rises during peak demand. The sun is almost gone today & the export price is 19C/kWh so my battery is exporting. This will stop when I begin using power for cooking etc. My battery is usually full by 10am & unless I have the EV charging my solar production is constrained so i don't export at a negative value. The software they have is called Smartshift & it manages the Inverter. I have been a wholesaler for only a few weeks but I am well in credit after paying the monthly fee. My original payback was 5-6 years & now with my EV costing zero to run & the ability to export only when the spot price is hign, that has reduced to 2-3 years

Lots of aluminium smelters running of renewables - mainly hydro. But, here some that are all or part running off solar. Many of those that are currently part solar, are looking to expand solar capacity.. Except for the Alcoa plant in Portland, where they are looking to go offshore wind. Energy is one function of the issues with Bell Bay. They are basically a small smelter with similar operating costs - power being the most variable. They ae suffering economies of scale issues and whilst power proces are one thing - and significant, they are just a small fish in a sea of bigger fish.

In Europe, they are now doing what is called balconnny solar. It's pretty much plug and play, and renters can take it with them if they move. There are also other schemes, such as solar sharing schemes. These are in their infancy; however, but they are evolving as technology improves. Solar systems for apartment buildings Community Solar Banks Program The Australian Government’s Community Solar Banks Program is supporting the installation of shared solar and clean energy technology in apartment buildings and other multi-unit dwellings. The government’s investment will provide shared solar systems and help to lower electricity costs for up to 25,000 households. Shared community solar banks help households who can’t install their own systems. This will allow more households to benefit from renewable energy, including people who: rent their homes live in apartments can't afford to install their own system. The Australian Government is partnering with states and territories to deliver the program. To find out what support is available in your state or territory and how to apply, visit the Community Solar Banks Program page .

Did she, must look it up.

Any extra solar and storage Helps everyone. Don't listen to the Nay sayers on this one. Nev

I'm not. I hope this doesn't hurt our relationship.

No, 'In god we trust' refers to himself pictured above the text....... except when he is actually jesus playing doctor. I've seen a picture of that, too. On the interwebby thingo.

Sell it in a Place where it rains, before electric takes over. It's a stranded asset with a diminishing Market value. I have Lawnmowers that belong in Museums. Nev

I haven't started my mower for two years.

So you Keep saying. but are we Jumping the gun (Not a very scientific saying) or Being slow on the Uptake and held up by the NO People and Coal worshippers with THEIR Vested Interests.? Nev

I thought those small vilalges with high murder rates were only in Midsummer.

untitles 522E modified2-1.mp4

Not at my place. Therfe was more moisture on a dead dingo's donger than came from the sky.

Well, this isn't good. I live about 5km from here, luckily, so far the wind seems to be blowing away from us. This surely is not good, given the fuel situation.

Not being negative, just being realistic. Australia is/has become a quarry and I am concerned for my kids and grandkids future. Recently did a course with some workers from Bell Bay. All were in their early 20's, I wander how they are feeling! Build a new plant. We need some industry. Exporting our carbon emissions overseas is not good for Australia prosperity or the worlds carbons emmisions anyway. Far better to do some value adding here economically or environmentally even if it does mean keeping our coal for longer. Even if intermittents are going to work, we aren't ready for them and jumping the gun is costing us.

I never thought you were real.

Gee Jerry. Thanks for the update. I think we are in for an interesting rollercoaster ride. My attempt to digest all the implications is like trying to predict what chump is going to say or do next.

I agree. these are dexterity professions at the end of the day, for which robotics isn't there, yet. But, if we look at the medical profession, there are already AI based diagnostic services that can do a better job than very well trained practitioners: https://www.nihr.ac.uk/news/new-ai-powered-service-launched-transform-cancer-detection-and-care There is AI assited surgery: https://www.brainlab.com/surgery-products/overview-platform-products/robotics/?gad_campaignid=22014774702&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw7vzOBhBxEiwAc7WNr-bTvUhd2xifCHStu-okO4oq5o9MSC5hM48hvZBSMAE9fO_DBJGuXxoCINwQAvD_BwE There is robotic drain/sewerage cleaning systems: https://www.srodrobotics.com/product/category/dredging-and-sewage-suction?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22856888573&gclid=CjwKCAjw7vzOBhBxEiwAc7WNr2fW35dyHvXA8NWv2txpE0rvVH7wI4sUCAIgCWA-ispgrIf3n7nfshoCHWYQAvD_BwE There is AI assited teaching.. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/teachers-to-get-more-trustworthy-ai-tech-as-generative-tools-learn-from-new-bank-of-lesson-plans-and-curriculums-helping-them-mark-homework-and-save All designed to improve productivitty and outcomes. If you improve productivity, you require less production - in this case humans. An ex employee of mine who suffers clinical depresseion (thankfully he still works with our company, but has been promoted and moved to an area where he wants to be - far more cerebral than what my team does), when suffering an episode calls for a large scale mass nucelar war to reset humanity. However, there are nefarious and ethical actors; AI represents a huge opportunity to improve everyone's lives and hopefully remove the mass inequities that fuel hatred, wars, and the like. Of course, we are miles from there, but maybe not as far off as people think.

The real concern is that AI might make the contributors to this forum obsolete.

The Net can be hacked. Nev

Just grap a Net and Yahoo!

Just another thing to Increase the depressed state we are in already. Stop the World , I want to Get off.. Nev.

More.. I have been saying for some time, the hardware technology has now advanced enough that AI has reached a critical point where it is able to stat to acheive its potential. And that is almost absolute automation. It isn't just coding, by the way.. much of the white collar work will be displaced. Think about these professions: Accountancy Psychology Actuary/quantitative analysts (finance, insurance, etc) Traders, risk managers, settlements staff, compliance staff, etc. Sales Customer Support Real Estate Agents Copywriters, editors, even journalists to some extent Engineers, producte designers, etc. Architects Even scammers and hackers and other crimonals.. and of course, lawyers Health professionals The list goes on. A lot of their work will be replaced with AI as it has the analytical capability to do a lot of the work done by these profressions now. Of course, AI at this stage can't generally have those lightbulb moments as it relies on various probability models of observed data, so sitting on a bus looking at a clock and thinking !hmm, if this bus was doing the speed of light.. what would happen!, but what it can probabl do is automate a lot of the grunt work to get from that to the actual theory. If the reports of Anthropic Mythos are true, though, it may well be a step in that direction, too. What it means for the workforce: Mass displacement Anything that requires human dexterity at this point will still be in demand - I am not sure robotics has yet hit the scale necessary to be able to replace humans in these areas. So tradies, fine arts in painting (not printing), sculpture, etc will remain, labourers, hospitality, etc). Research - as AI can support, but still not theorise in the same way as humans, there will still be research. Management - probably executive only, but apparently Meta did some experiment with an AI version if Zuckerberg and employees couldn't tell. Small workforce driving the AI output. For example, in my area, we would need only a handful of senior people who know how to drive AI who would also be business domain experts and techncally savvy. The will need to be entrepreneurial, too, as they will be looking to drive innovation and an edge against their competitors. And with AI, you can do that very quickly. Will move from th gig economy to the side hustle economy. So, the theoretical $40m saving will: Initially, as Marrty states, go to the bottom line (hopefully I will get some of that if I can make it happen). But this is only inertia However, as more and more companies adopt, and as AI reduces the barriers of entry, competition will eventually take hold. Say, all banks use AI and have reduced their cost massively, we will go for market share and customers to grow our business. That will inevitably lead to lower margins until there is a normalisation of prices and returns. In theory, this will happen over time to all indistrues that use it. The cost of living in theory goes down.. but... There will be less money in the bulk of the population to afford a lot of this anyway. Eventually, as the governments see the issues arising (they are generally hopeless at foresight or at least hopeless on acting on it), they will have to address a burgeoning unemployment situation (country specific), lest there be civil war. This will mean even governments that don't like to step in will have to to redistribute the concentration of wealth as a result. In theory, you shoud get a better product, but it will be in the hands of those that control products. And as we saw with customer relationship management solutions, which had the potential to really improve the customer experience and reduce costs, management colelctively decided to use it to cut costs by offshoring and compounnd the shippy customer experience. Depending on where you are and the geopolitics of the time, will depend on how well a particular society handles the onslaught of change for the majority of the people. But there are a few things to think about from a sociological perspective: Psychological impact: With more time on peoples' hands and very large changes to societal structures in a short period of time, what will be the impact on the individuals and the community. We see our worth in our work, we need to be occupied, etc. What impact will there be of being able to sit around and do nothing? How much of th ecommunity will fall into chronic and sever mental illness - anxiety, depresseion, and worse? What will be be doing to avoid this sort of thing on a bigger scale than we already habve today? Education: No longer will our current education system and approach be relevant. Of course, we need to know the three Rs, but a much bigger emphasis will have to be on critical thinking (pollies don't generally like that), entreprenuership, and the like. Naturally, traditional subjects will remain as we will still need the professionals, trades, etc. Just a lot less of them. What to do with the rest of the population - the worker bees or ants, so to speak? Health: Will we have to start mandating some sort of physical and mental health management/exercise. What gets people out of bed today won't exist tomorrow and it is not apparent what will replace it for the vast majority tomorrow. Those old vids of China and I think Germany where people were mandated to attend mass physical exercise classes may well be needed going forward. Living wage: With so many people potentially being displaced, there are two options - one, a virtual collapse of the economy as the crticial mass can't afford anything so all this automation will yield nothing; or as I mentioned earlier, redistirbution of income to keep the economy and poeople going. Does everyone get a living wage - enough to put a roof over their head, food in the stomach, utilities paid, and some left over to spend money and keep the economy going. Econimics is always a law of diminishing returns, so is this the point that heralds the implosion of capitalism and necessity of socialism (which is not communism)? Do we have to rethink the term dole bludgers? Intensified migration and culture change: We are already seeing virtual collapses in birth rates amongst developed countries. Part of it is the cost of upbringing, but my guess is that it is more around the fact that many couples want a blend of preserving living standards and being able to lavish more on fewer kids than having to spread the same across more kids. And, wit mortalisty rates so low, you don't have to have 10 kids in the hope that two or three make it. More families are happy with 1 child than three; I was very happy with just the one for that very reason. With AI, where it is either harder to have kids because you can't afford it, or it is easy noit to have kids because of a living wage to everyone, in order to keep the economy going, you will still have to have people to give the money to, in order to spend it, in order to generate the economy. Third world will be behind the curve and looking for the juicy lifestyle this can bring.. or just free of their oppressive regimes. That can mean only one thing.. There will be no room for anti-immigration. You need someone to wipe your posterior in old age, it ain't gonna be a born and bred person. Wuth intensified migration, expect culture change. Military: I don't need to go into that.. we should all be able to see what will happen there. But let's not pretend it will be robots against robots.. It will be people using robots (drones, etc) against people who try to deploy robots to defend themselves. Once the barriers are broken, there will be carnage far quicker than Iran's protest suppression until a surrendr (if one is even listened to). There are other areas to consider, but the AI revolution (and that is what it is - a revolution) is a great opportunity and a great threat. It frightens me to say it, but we will be far more dependent on our governments' actions and approach than many other waves of change that have come across society. It will further concentrate wealth and power in a smaller number of corporates. If you don't do what they say, they will cut you off their platforms and lock you out of society. I use the term governments in the plural as it will require a global approach. Sadly,m there are few turly benevolent governments, so we are in for a tough ride.

Yeah, you'd think Land values would have Plunged with all the deaths. I think the local pub has closed. Just a sign of the times. Nev