There are striking similarities between UK and AUS politics. Normally, I would say to predict what is going to happen politically in the UK, just look at Australia's recent past.
The libs impending implosion and the lurch to the right are the two exceptions, where the UK leads, but Australia is following. The conservatives have been out of ideas and losing relevance for a long time. Brexit was a way they could lay the blame of the malaise they imposed on the country and solve it in one foul swoop. Of course, when that didn't work and the chickens came home to roost, it showed how hollow they were - out of touch with the electorate; out of touch with business; out of touch woth foreign policy.. the party kept on proffering candidates who seemed to be stuck in the old colonial days. Brexit initially delivered the conservatives a large swing from Labour. But they have no oether swung back, or swung to Reform - Nigel Farage. Brexit was a protest vote - people who were on the margins, which seemingly more and more of what should be the middle classes find themselves.
Conservatives followed suit - their party in disarray, not representing the rank and file. First, they tried emulating reform. Once it became clear that conservative voters had shifted, so too have some of the lesser qualified conservative MPs. Reform took third place in the popular vote in the last elections; I would say they are even money, if not staring down taking first place of the popular vote at the next. They are unlikely to grab the premiership due to the concentration of their votes, but taking the popular vote is a big boost. Yet, their policies will hurt the ones that vote for them most.
Australia is heading that way. The Libs are more and more irrelevant. They have a habit of nominating candidates that are less and less competent. Lib voters are moving to PHON. As the Libs implde, some will see the personal value of defecting to PHON. Labor lost some ground in the primary vote in the last polls. That is probably more attributed to Bondi and general incumbent blues than a shift to PHON at this stage. There has been no Brexit moment to pull Labor voters away. But, there are things creeping in that may move Labor voters at a higher rate. There is stuff like the NACC, where Labor have proved not much better than the Libs at the end of the day. That is minor in the scheme of things, but these sorts of things that can be the straw that breaks the camel's back, Despite Australia looking after its poorer and lower mddle classes better that the UK, we are seeing a wider gap between the haves and the have nots; we are seeing constantly increasing costs of lving, and hot topics like property rental and purhcase prices spiralling continues unabated. The result, more and more people will feel forgotten, get pi55ed off and cast their prtest vote.
The difference between the UK and Australia is that voting in Australia is compulsory (or at least getting your name marked off the electoral roll is, anyway). This will mean those thast are p155ed off are more likely to cast a protest vote than in the UK, because many who would say normally vote conservative wouldn't turn up for the election - which happened in the last UK general election. Of course, Australia has a preferential system rather than first past the post, so that works in favour of keeing PHONies out., But don't bet on it.
Libs and Labor have lessons to learn if they don't want a rabid right wing mob with significant power.