I agree with most of your post.. and I agree that those who need to roll over credit every month are susceptible to failure. After all, the stats for new startups is never great. But there are two things to point out. First, those businesses that are needing to use it every time and liable to fail, probably do within 12 months. They will use all credit available to them. The banks aggregate your credit risk across all known forms you can have. If you have a mortgage, a credit card, a car loan, a personal loan, are the director is person of control in a private company that has a company loan and company credit card, chances are they know about all of them them and they aggregate them to give a credit risk profile. So chances are, if you're in stress, they will know. And then, if you default on one of those loans, you default on all of them - that is under the BASEL rules (2.1 to be precise), which Australia has incorporated in its law. So if you are making out your credit cards, chances are the house of cards will come falling down fast. My point is, if you are constantly relying on the most expensive form of debt to keep you afloat, you are only prolonging the inevitable a short period of time.
However, how many of the businesses may (and I stress, may) be using it for the occasional - or even frequent, but not financially punitive cash flow management. For example, you may have a bunch of clients that are poor payers.. As BAS accrues generally in the period the sale was made and not the cash was taken, you would be simply waiting for payment )yes, there are exemptions to allow payment of BAS in the period payment is collected, but that is by far the exception). So, to cover the BAS and prevent punitive penalties, you resort to a credit card. I imagine a fair share of those that avail themselves to their credit cards are in this or some other bucket that doesn't mean they are about to go to the wall. There are over 2.5 million small/medium businesses in Australia at last count; there is ample room for the temporary cover versus go under businesses. Until we know the stats, jumping to the conclusion that all, or even a vast majority are about to go to the wall is just that.. jumping to a conclusion.
But that is thread drift. The thread is about government decisions and unintended consequences.
What no one has picked up on is the fact that the "removal of credit card surcharges" is likely to mean that everyone pays for it whether or not they use a credit card.. and that it hides information from the consumer to give them a choice (or accept it). If I were a coffee shop owner, I may think I don't have the spare margin to absorb this. So, I would look at my sales of both credit and non credit cards; average them out and then apply the addition across all of them.. and the non credit card consumer subsidises the credit card user because I would want to keep my price increases as small as possible. I would say that can become an unintended consequence - mainly because those in the position to make the decision have probably not thought about it.