Two weeks to go and just about everyone has written the Carroll government off. Most of the talk is not if they lose, but by how much. Now that they've pissed the Greens right off and lost Green preferences in a lot of seats, the hurdle just got bigger. But you never know until it's over and stranger things have happened. I'll never forget the Shorten election loss. He had opinion polls indicating that Labor was home and hosed to the point where Labor faithful at the election function room were cracking the champagne at close of polls. An hour later, those same people were a sad and sorry sight wandering around shellshocked. So anything can happen on the night.
A surprise win for Victorian Labor would be a godsend for Federal Labor, but the reality is without a Labor win in Victoria, the best case scenario for the Feds is a Coalition minority with One Nation support. That gives them the hope of a chaotic, unworkable government making Labor look good for a return next time. It would also give the Feds more validity to their looming battle against One Nation and the Coalition in eighteen months time. On the flip side, the worse case scenario for Federal Labor is a Victorian Coalition majority that doesn't need One Nation. Especially if it goes on to be a stable, popular government. In that case, it would be a big negative for Labor's federal campaign. Certainly not your average state election; the whole country will be watching this one.