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Doesn't that just 'roll off the tongue!'

Finally! Afer a bit of rain on Satruday, which resulted in the cancellatoion of teh local jockey club meeting, the rain started to fall just before dawn this morning. It is the type of rain you raelly want after months of dry. It is gentle, soaking rain that does not result in rushing torrents across bare ground. After only a few hours I see that my drinking water tanks are replenished. Now I will wait to see if any seed that has been in the soil will germinate to give some late summer feed, or at least hold the topsoil together.

I can't read the article, so my response is in generic terms. In terms forward looking at the economy, to be honest, I am probably one of the last you would want an asnwer from. I am not going to get into virtue politics and try and keep this to economics. Chump is using two main levers - tariffs and stimulus, the latter being code word for increasing debt and government spending to stimulate the economy. It is sort of applying the foot brake and the throttle of a motorcycle simultaneously to get a balanced and steady result. He has fiscal policy levers; he is attempting to gain access to monetary policy levers, but let's leave that out of it for now. Economically, he seems to be using the latter to ease the pain of the former. With his political agenda of making America great again, and trying to reclaim the lost economic activity of domestic manufacturing or production, these levers can be weilded as an effective tool in achieving those aims, but only for so long. And there are existing structural issues with the US (and most major western) economies, that length of time before it comes back to bite is shortened. At the heart of it is the theory of price equilibrium (a google sesarch will give a concise but good AI explanation) It explains how prices are correlated to supply and demand. Assume the market for, I dunno, T shirts is in equilibrium - that is the price is set such that the amount of T shirts willing to be consumed by consumers is the same at which suppliers are willing to sell them. You have price equilibrium of supply and demand. If suppliers decide to increase the supply (say to become a dominant player in the market) and the demand does not change, in order to sell the higher volume of T shirts, the sellers will have to start discounting T shirts to a price where consumers are willing to buy the increased volume of T shirts. And of course, vice versa; if demand goes up and supply stays the same, consumers are willing to pay more per T Shirt for that same supply. There are other factors, such as price elastcity, lag, etc.. but let's keep it simple. According to this theory, though, one of two things will happen. If it is a permanent move one way, the price equilibrium will shift. This will usually happen where there is a constraint to one side of the equation. For example, if supply increases, but demand cannot (I dunno - the nuber od train rides one can take in a day??), and suppliers are willing to the increased supply at that price, then the price will stay there. More often what happens is there is a constraint on supply and the price forever changes for the worse (assuming no substitute goods or services are available). The other impact is that where the demand and supply if perfectly correlated (fully elastic), the increase or decrease in price will eventually lead to the supplier or consumer increasing or decreasing supply/demand accordingly which impacts the other's willingness to supply or consume at that price, and prices will eventually revert to their original equilibrium where both sides are willing to supply or consume the same volumes at that price. This is really important, because although we talk about the price of goods and services in this context, money or currency also has a price. And that price is not the exchange rate; it is the inflation rate. Inflation = a lessenign ov the value of money - it is not worth as much as it was. Deflation = increasing value of money - it is more valuable that the goods or services it is being exchanged for than it was, say yesterday. However, inflation is far more prevalent than deflation - so money is forever devaluing, right? Well, yes, and there are two reasons for it. The first is government interventions - monetary policy usually. Governments don't like inflation, because it usually results in a recession or worse. Although in theory, as prices drop, people will buy more of whatever it is, there comes a point where it is not economic for the suppliers to sell at that price. But, a quirk to the price equilibrium theory, when there is deflation, people will put off buying stuff because they know they can get it cheaper in the future. That collapse in demand leads to recessions and depressions. The second reason is simple - there is usually an increasing money supply in an economy. And where you have more of something that you want to exchange for something else that has value to you, you will offer more of that something you have. That is you will increase your supply of money in relation for the other thing you want that has had no increase in supply. The good example is the housing market. Remember when you or your parents could buy an average house in an average suburb for about 3.5 times annual salaries. Today it is something like 7 or more times salary. Why? This may sound mysoginistic, but women entring the workforce enmasse. What that did is put more moeny into to system and into purchasers hands. Supply of housing is relatively stable, especially in established areas, so what happens - you as a family with two working parents instead of one give more money to the seller as you are in competition with other buyers (demand). The net effect in real terms is both parents are now working but still no better off. So, if Chump increases tariffs, the price of the goods/services imported into America are higher and in theory, the consumer will want to buy less of them. But why do that? Because, the price at which they can be sold fom domestic manufacturers economically is higher and to try and even out demand between importers and domestic manufacturers is price (assuming quality/specification is on par). In other words, you are artifically cheapning money against imported goods. As I mentioned, assuming the quality, specification, amenity etc is simiar, responsible citizens would look to buy locally made, but at least through simple distributions, there would be a higher percentage of the domestically made product sold. Of course, there is a lag here, because where there was no manufacturing, it takes time to get it up and running. And that's where the stimulus comes in. It can be freebies to the people - as was the inflation reduction act. And some of Chump's is.. But it can also be setting the barriers to entry into the sector lower to get investment moving quicker and manufacturing churning stuff out quicker, too. That hass a knock on effect of creating employment and when there is a ready supply of labour, that will be a very good thing, because it won't increase costs (salaries) too much. Once construction is over, depending on the automation levels, there will be some permanent, sustained increase in employment over time. But now you have a lot of money now artifically entering the economy. More people are employed, which is a good thing and they can buy more stuff. Demand increases, but because there is more money in the system. Inflation is initially kept in check because there is usually some capacity in an economy to absorb short term changes in demand and supply without material impact on prices. Suppliers can supply more to meet the demand (or maybe there was already an oversupply). Everything is nice. However, once that capacity is used up, things start to change. Suppliers are now in a position where there is excess demand over normal supply volumes - the previous equilibrium price. What happens? People with more money still want the stuff and if suppliers can';t or don't want to increase the supply, they charge more. Consumers enter into comeptition with each other and pay the higher prices. You have inflation - or devaluing money.. because the money supply was increased. The money supply increase can be "natural"; i.e. a product of normal economic activity or it can be through government injection of new money - stimulus. This is usually done through a) printing money (bad - look at Germany in the 30s) or debt (less bad, and used properly as well as contained, can be very good). Either way, if done to excess, it is not sustainable, because, after all, the piper has to be paid (pied piper, not the aircraft company). Just look at quantitative easing, which was increasing the money supply.. it was really good to start with as it stabilised everything by gradually increasing the money supply. But they left the taps on for too long and inflation went ballistic. If they had of started turning off the taps earlier and took longer to do it, there would have been little impact on inflation. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. What Chump is doing is short term lever pulling.. He is creating that cosy bubble to protect everyone now. He will be in lag territory as the economy has capacity to absorb it and things will be humming along nicely. It's nice and artificial, but reality will kick in. With his attempt to get the levers of monetary policy, which can artifically increase inflation through interest to keep the lid from blowing off, influencing lower interest rates in the face of an artifically booming economic engine is a recipe for disaster as there will be more money floating in the system because it will be easy to get hold of. Enter the credit multiplier, which even further increases the money supply. What happens is I earn say $100. I put $50 in the bank. Multiply that by say a million people. Three is $50m in the bank. Now I want to start a business. So I borrow $1m. Others want to biy a house, a car, a holiday of a lifetime, etc. In the end, $45m of that money is lent out. The economy is now $95m. Now, the people/businesses we have spent the money on bank some of that money, after expenses, etc. Say, $20m is banked back as deposits, the other is spend on their expenses, and those that were paid bank say $10m of that.. The system now has the original $50m + the $45m lent but still has $30m in the bank and ready to lend out. And so the cycle goes until it essentially runs to a crtical reduction at which the economy can't sustain itself, and people start defaulting and the whole thing unravels (of course that is an overdramatisation). Say the borrowing rate is on average 10%. It makes it reasonably difficult to service large loans. Now Chump comes along and adds $50M to my economy. Whoa.. As a bank I don't want it sitting in my accounts as a liability - it is costing me money. So I want it lent out. But initially, demand hasn't changed, so what do I do? I reduce my interest rates to shift it. And this increases demand for lending, further pumping money into the economy and keeping the cycle going. But, with even more money in the economy, the same population can pay more for the same stuff, and eventually inflation will skyrocket. Then things get more expensive, and eventually people can no longer afford it as the money creation cycle slows. Then demand drops, employment drops, taxes drop, etc, The government has debt and the piper is coming along for its next payment. The proiblem with Chump is he looks to be weilding these levers for very short term political gain and the debt to the piper ever increasing. One day the piper will come calling and the house of cards that has now been built, rather than the solid foundation will fall.

Some anti fascist people are already working to identify and make public the identity of ICE officers, especially those proven to have used excessive force. It's exactly like the nazi brown shirts. You shouldn't expect to remain anonymous while following unlawful and inhumane orders.

It all depends on how much money you've got, what your dream is, and how much determination you've got, to achieve that dream. One of the most amazing restorations I've seen is a split window Kombi, salvaged from the Higginsville Pumping station - where the entire front of it had been cut off, the body stood on its front, a huge chunk cut out of the side of it, and then it was used as a dunny!! But a bloke set his heart on having a fully restored split window Kombi, and he recovered every part of that "dunny Kombi" and restored it to superb driving condition!! It reportedly cost him $100,000! Why anyone would do this, to end up driving a gutless old pile of VW crap, is beyond me! But that's just my opinion! This is the Kombi when it was used as a dunny, I can't find photos of it when restored, I did see them on Instagram, but can't find them now.

I am getting through my copy of Peter’s book, nice to have a break from fiction for a bit. Some real interesting stuff in there. the amount of golden ounces pulled out of that ground is staggering. £3 an ounce might have been a fortune then, but t the ridiculous prices seen lately the numbers are staggering.

It wasn't actually sold, it was a 99 yr lease. A pretty cunning way of getting around FIRB examination. But an undesirable deal, regardless, and basically a bloody outright stupid deal.

OK, you two. We know that you each sit on the otehr side of the fence. We accept that. What is not acceptable is personal attacks. Please play the ball and not the man.

Jerry is either a skilled typist or he has mastered voice-to-text. Good on him!

Yes the article I quotes is behind a paywall. But the seemed to loint out that quantitative easing, when added to the interactions you listed, can bring about some big financial swings. The big question is: will these hit tle voters pockets before their midterms? Will Chump force the interest rate down? Etc. Thanks @Jerry for taking the time to explain. (Ten out of ten for good typing, too)

The man who would be king is a good old movie. He was good in the hunt for red october as well.

Roger Moore (sounds like a porn star name) was the least "action hero" type of any Bond. I think the best was the last, Daniel Craig. Some of the fight scenes, especially in the first of his, were excellent.

Keep the beautiful heritage sites for public use not seel cheap and make billions for untaxed private profit . Start taxing properly and it would not be a problem.

My copy arrived today.. Looks like @pmccarthy is (probably once again) contributing positively to Australia's balance of Trade 😉

PHON has NOT got ONE Lower House Seat OR any Policies other that RACIST hate ( which changes according to the Occasion) and Bagging Labor She's Funded By Gina Reinhart who is worth 37 Billion and some of that Assistance ? will (and is ) coming under scrutiny. All the People rushing to Her are Malcontents and mostly Nats who have a complex situation in ARE in Queensland where there is ONLY a SINGLE Party. Hansens Popularity is Highest in Qld. HER approval rating is Only Based on Polling of a relatively small number of People. Murdoch is Pushing her but the Main damage is caused by the Behaviour of the NP to their Partner. in the Unholy alliance, called the Coalition whose Main Purpose, Particularly Lately was to Keep Labor Out. The NP more supports Coal and GAS interests than that OF Farmers and say NO to anything Labor proposed. The NP don't actually represent a LOT of people but a fair bit of area and they are rusted on voters. When Election time Come s scrutiny of what Policies are In Place& How they are likely to work Might Bring some reality into the equation and see How the DIVERSE views of the NEW additions to Pauline's Party will share the Power and Pecking order. STABILITY. Can't see it happening. Nev

There are striking similarities between UK and AUS politics. Normally, I would say to predict what is going to happen politically in the UK, just look at Australia's recent past. The libs impending implosion and the lurch to the right are the two exceptions, where the UK leads, but Australia is following. The conservatives have been out of ideas and losing relevance for a long time. Brexit was a way they could lay the blame of the malaise they imposed on the country and solve it in one foul swoop. Of course, when that didn't work and the chickens came home to roost, it showed how hollow they were - out of touch with the electorate; out of touch with business; out of touch woth foreign policy.. the party kept on proffering candidates who seemed to be stuck in the old colonial days. Brexit initially delivered the conservatives a large swing from Labour. But they have no oether swung back, or swung to Reform - Nigel Farage. Brexit was a protest vote - people who were on the margins, which seemingly more and more of what should be the middle classes find themselves. Conservatives followed suit - their party in disarray, not representing the rank and file. First, they tried emulating reform. Once it became clear that conservative voters had shifted, so too have some of the lesser qualified conservative MPs. Reform took third place in the popular vote in the last elections; I would say they are even money, if not staring down taking first place of the popular vote at the next. They are unlikely to grab the premiership due to the concentration of their votes, but taking the popular vote is a big boost. Yet, their policies will hurt the ones that vote for them most. Australia is heading that way. The Libs are more and more irrelevant. They have a habit of nominating candidates that are less and less competent. Lib voters are moving to PHON. As the Libs implde, some will see the personal value of defecting to PHON. Labor lost some ground in the primary vote in the last polls. That is probably more attributed to Bondi and general incumbent blues than a shift to PHON at this stage. There has been no Brexit moment to pull Labor voters away. But, there are things creeping in that may move Labor voters at a higher rate. There is stuff like the NACC, where Labor have proved not much better than the Libs at the end of the day. That is minor in the scheme of things, but these sorts of things that can be the straw that breaks the camel's back, Despite Australia looking after its poorer and lower mddle classes better that the UK, we are seeing a wider gap between the haves and the have nots; we are seeing constantly increasing costs of lving, and hot topics like property rental and purhcase prices spiralling continues unabated. The result, more and more people will feel forgotten, get pi55ed off and cast their prtest vote. The difference between the UK and Australia is that voting in Australia is compulsory (or at least getting your name marked off the electoral roll is, anyway). This will mean those thast are p155ed off are more likely to cast a protest vote than in the UK, because many who would say normally vote conservative wouldn't turn up for the election - which happened in the last UK general election. Of course, Australia has a preferential system rather than first past the post, so that works in favour of keeing PHONies out., But don't bet on it. Libs and Labor have lessons to learn if they don't want a rabid right wing mob with significant power.

Willie, the Australian gold price has been over AU$7,000 for quite some time. The price was above US$5,000 for the whole of the last week in January, and again for the last week.

Crazy prices for split window Kombis. I remember them as an underpowered tin box on wheels. But they had a lot of character.

That's ok Nev, enjoy your junk free retirement. I haven't quite got to that stage yet; achieved the retirement part but still haven't cured the junk addiction.

spielberg the director

To each his own. Nev, you do what you enjoy in life and I'll do the same.

I would assign those to a labor supporter. So what's the point?

Driest start to the year since 2009 in Melbourne with some gauges not recording 1 mm since mid November.

Are you talking about the foreign investment review board? More a rubber stamp. Who would have allowed the Darwin port to be sold to foreign interests at all, let alone China?

Has Trump ever paid what he owes? You have to wonder why anyone would take on a job for him. How does he keep lawyers working for him?

I have no desire to watch "Melania, The Movie". BUT... I am most curious about E. Jean Carroll. Want to hear the story of the woman who took on Trump? The one who beat him in court. Twice. https://askejeanfilm.com/ The thrilling adventurous life of beloved advice columnist and journalist E. Jean Carroll, the only woman to beat Trump in court. Twice. "Ask E. JEAN" is the story of E. Jean Carroll’s life, from her early days as Miss Cheerleader USA to her rise as a journalist, author, and advice columnist. Carroll broke barriers as the first female editor at Esquire, Playboy, and Outside, helping to redefine women’s roles in media with her sharp wit and fearless voice. In recent years, she stirred public discourse by standing up to power, becoming the only woman to beat Donald Trump twice in court.... But I don't think she gas managed to make gropenfuhrer to actually pay her the court ordered compensation.

Did you know that artists are not paid a fee for performing at the Superbowl halftime show? The NFL picks up the bill for staging the show but does not pay the artists a fee. The exposure of being on such a show is considered sufficient compensation.

That's a low bar.

He is a cunning linguist.

I doubt WE really have that Luxury. Trump is NEVER WRONG. (but I think it's MARY Trump they are referring to). America has started all recessions lately and this Fool could do the really BIG one, because HE's Clueless, Vain and Greedy beyond Belief. He's only EVER been in Real Estate where his Exaggerated Reputation was used to the full .Now He uses Stand over Tactics and tears up existing agreements and Treats Former Allies Like $#!t. THIS Damage will take A LONG time to repair if Indeed It is Possible at ALL. Once Shunned, Twice SHY. Who in their right Mind would TRUST PUTIN also? Bare Faced LIES to the United Nations. Nev

Now, all we need, is to get Nomadpete to do proofreading on his posts! 😄

Washington is the backer of the $US, but the Federal Reserve is charged with keeping the U.S. monetary system stable and functioning properly. The Federal Reserve is independent of any political demands and consists of 12 Reserve Banks and a committee that sets U.S. monetary policy, with particular emphasis on interest rates, which are a key monetary driver of any economy. The overwhelming belief amongst U.S. politicians is that the Federal Reserve must operate completely independently of any political interference and be allowed to make monetary policy corrections that it believes are needed to keep the U.S. economy and the $US on an even keel. However, the Tangerine Toddler believes he alone has to totally control the monetary policy of the U.S., and I reckon a lot of financiers and economists lose a lot of sleep over what would happen if the Tangerine Toddler got his way, and took control of the levers of the money machine. https://www.clevelandfed.org/about-us/understanding-the-federal-reserve

It seems that Musk blocked Russia's illicit use of the Starlink network a week or so ago at Ukraine's request. It's now hampering Russia's communications and use of drones on the front which is obviously good news for Ukraine. Lets hope he doesn't change his mind next week.https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/starlink-used-by-russian-forces-deactivated-battlefield-ukraine-says-2026-02-05/

I wouldn't be trying to rebuild Motors Gearbox's etc. Try getting Low mileage Motors out of bikes with ALUMINIUM Frames like some (Modern) Indians some BMWs and Buells .You can't repair the frames. Nev

I used the example of Glenbrook because, to me at least, it seems pretty clear-cut. Glenbrook during my time always seemed to be being refurbished. I think the most recent was in 2022 to the tune of $7.6 Million. My first-hand experience is 35 years old, but at that time, it was much more like a gentleman's club. This is a building that, for the most part, the public is not able to visit. My point is not that there should be a fire sale of just about everything, but that these things should be rationally weighed up, and yes, emotion can be part of that equation. Staged refurbishment of a prized heritage building in a live operational environment

Picked up some ratty bike bits today. 2x 1984 model CBX750F Honda 4's. One assembled that's a potential runner and a second complete one in bits, motor with a stuffed crankshaft. There's bits and pieces there I can use and might part some of it out eventually. All the plastics and fairings are there (in the back seat). It cost bugger all.

I agree Daniel Craig, was the best action bond and a far more rounded character, not a shallow cad like Moore or a more serious but still brutish and chauvinist Connery. The best old Bond was in my humble opinion, is George Lazenby a school mate of my dad in Goulburn. Lived a block from each other, he was a playboy in real life and didn't play the studio game nor want to be stuck in a role. Pity he was offered to continue in the role for more bond films. He was the Bond that was not brutish to women, showed his emotions and married only to see her killed at the end. Much more the Daniel Craig character but back 50 years. I am still a Connery fan but never saw a Moore film I liked.

It was the Aston Martin DB5. Don't worry the passenger will be nervous anyway.

IF you were Roger Moore you'd need a Bullet proof REAR WINDOW in your DB 4 too. Nev

On the opposite side of the lake from the pits. When it wasn't closed for the race, I drove on that road every day going home from work.

There are many other areas of government waste that can be directed to facilities. And many who are allowed to pay no tax who should Priorities.

Don't dare criticize anything Labor does. Nev said so. If Labor sold off the Harbour Bridge and Opera House, that would be OK with Nev.

He's not cheating. He's simply the best. (Which, replacing "He's" with "you're", is the next answer)

The military buildings in question are all heritage listed, and hold enormous emotional attachment for many, due to their links to all major wars. Plus, their architecture and construction quality is excellent, as it is with all military buildings.

I wonder what price they have put on Fort Denison? Really great harbour location.

You could NOT be MORE wrong . I talk to a Lot of War veterans . Some from the USA. When I meet groups of them anywhere on Bikes I go and have a yarn with them .The most helpful Instructor I know was an ex POW in Changi. He's in one of the Pictures taken and is Just Bones. HE is the Person who is responsible for supporting Me continuing to train and get a flyting Job I've also flown with WW2 ,Vietnam and Korean war Pilots most of whom have experienced things they don't want to speak of. Vietnam Vets got red paint thrown on them when they returned. Nev

For the hotrodders, Ed Iskenderian, of the "Isky Racing Cams" fame, passed away yesterday at the tremendous old age of 104. He was a real character, like so many hot-rodders. https://carbuzz.com/remembering-edward-isky-iskenderian/