The spot Brent Crude price is still less that the peak post Covid and presumably from the Ukraine war.
As I understand, the issue is not the capacity to supply as much as the delivery because most of the ME oil comes out of the Persian gulf through Hormuz. So, it isn't even a case of turn around the ships and go another way. I am guessing there are no alternative ports/terminals they can use for transporting non-Iranian ME oil. According to Google. Iran is the 4th largest behind Saudi, UAE and Ira. These three could boost production and send the oil overland to ports/terminals in Saudi if there are any, and ship through the Red Sea., but the Houthis, who are Iranian backed, basically patrol the waters.
The obvious conseuences of this energy crisis is a switch to renewabls and electrification. It may also put pressure on Ukraine as the west may well (as Chump has hinted) start taking on Russian oil - ooh.. wouldn't that bre great for his war chest.
Recession is likely, and as the western governments have largely exhiaseted their reserves and debt ceilings, creating the soft landing as per the Covid/pre-Covd times is unlikely to be sustainable, but it may well hold off a full blown recession.
Chump, though his alienation of his allies, and the growing resentment to the war at home maibkly because oif the inflationary and recessionary impact it will ahve, will put pressure on him to end it soon. He won't want to concede, so he will either find some "pallatble" story, or he will send the ground trrops in, which there are already reports.
I can only see it ramping up at his stage.. Chump will want to end it ASAP and won't back down. And one conseuence is it will hit a critical point where allies of both sides will need to get involved.