Jerry_Atrick

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_English https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnaby_French https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/László_Magyar Can't find anyone with a surname of Australian, New3 Zealander, Canadian, or Kiwi (but there are a few people with a first name of Kiwi): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiwi_Camara https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiwi_Chow https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kiwi_Gardner And there are a few others if you care to look.

I agree. these are dexterity professions at the end of the day, for which robotics isn't there, yet. But, if we look at the medical profession, there are already AI based diagnostic services that can do a better job than very well trained practitioners: https://www.nihr.ac.uk/news/new-ai-powered-service-launched-transform-cancer-detection-and-care There is AI assited surgery: https://www.brainlab.com/surgery-products/overview-platform-products/robotics/?gad_campaignid=22014774702&gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw7vzOBhBxEiwAc7WNr-bTvUhd2xifCHStu-okO4oq5o9MSC5hM48hvZBSMAE9fO_DBJGuXxoCINwQAvD_BwE There is robotic drain/sewerage cleaning systems: https://www.srodrobotics.com/product/category/dredging-and-sewage-suction?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=22856888573&gclid=CjwKCAjw7vzOBhBxEiwAc7WNr2fW35dyHvXA8NWv2txpE0rvVH7wI4sUCAIgCWA-ispgrIf3n7nfshoCHWYQAvD_BwE There is AI assited teaching.. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/teachers-to-get-more-trustworthy-ai-tech-as-generative-tools-learn-from-new-bank-of-lesson-plans-and-curriculums-helping-them-mark-homework-and-save All designed to improve productivitty and outcomes. If you improve productivity, you require less production - in this case humans. An ex employee of mine who suffers clinical depresseion (thankfully he still works with our company, but has been promoted and moved to an area where he wants to be - far more cerebral than what my team does), when suffering an episode calls for a large scale mass nucelar war to reset humanity. However, there are nefarious and ethical actors; AI represents a huge opportunity to improve everyone's lives and hopefully remove the mass inequities that fuel hatred, wars, and the like. Of course, we are miles from there, but maybe not as far off as people think.

And here is the chat gpt version: I’ve been saying for a while now that hardware has finally caught up to the point where AI is reaching a real inflection point. We’re moving toward something close to large-scale automation of cognitive work—not just coding, but a significant portion of white-collar jobs. Think about roles like: Accountants Psychologists Actuaries / quantitative analysts Traders, risk managers, compliance and settlements staff Sales and customer support Real estate agents Copywriters, editors, and even parts of journalism Engineers and product designers Architects Legal professionals Healthcare professionals Even scammers, hackers, and other bad actors The list goes on. A large portion of the analytical and process-driven work in these fields is increasingly within AI’s capabilities. That said, AI still doesn’t really have “lightbulb moments” in the human sense. It works by identifying patterns in data, not by suddenly inventing ideas from pure intuition. You won’t get the classic “what if this bus were moving at the speed of light?” moment. But what AI can do is automate a huge amount of the groundwork needed to get from idea to theory. If reports about systems like “Anthropic Mythos” are even partially accurate, we may be edging closer to that kind of capability as well. What this could mean for the workforce Mass displacement of many white-collar roles Jobs requiring physical dexterity (trades, hospitality, fine arts, etc.) remain safer for now—robotics isn’t quite there yet Research roles will persist, though increasingly AI-assisted Management may shrink to a smaller, more senior/executive layer A small, highly skilled workforce will oversee and direct AI systems—domain experts who are also technically capable and entrepreneurial A shift from the gig economy to a “side hustle” economy Economic implications Short term: Cost savings (e.g., the hypothetical $40m) will mostly go to company profits Long term: As adoption spreads, competition increases Lower barriers to entry mean more players → margin compression Over time, this could reduce costs across industries However: If large parts of the population lose income, who can afford to buy anything? Governments will likely be forced to respond—possibly through wealth redistribution mechanisms or similar policies In theory, we could end up with better, cheaper products—but controlled by fewer, more powerful organisations. And as we’ve seen before (e.g., with CRM systems), technology often gets used to cut costs rather than improve user experience. Bigger societal questions 1. Psychological impact Work gives people structure, identity, and purpose. What happens when that disappears for millions? We could see major increases in anxiety, depression, and social instability if this isn’t managed carefully. 2. Education The current model won’t hold. Beyond basic literacy and numeracy, we’ll need to prioritise: Critical thinking Creativity Entrepreneurship We’ll still need professionals and trades—but far fewer of them. So what happens to everyone else? 3. Health and lifestyle If traditional work disappears, what motivates people day-to-day? Do governments start encouraging—or even mandating—physical and mental health routines at scale? 4. Living wage / universal income Two broad paths: Economic contraction (if people can’t afford to spend) Some form of income redistribution to sustain demand This raises bigger questions about whether we’re approaching the limits of traditional capitalism and need hybrid or alternative systems. 5. Migration and demographics Birth rates are already falling in developed countries. AI could accelerate that trend. At the same time, economies still need consumers—so migration may increase significantly, bringing major cultural shifts. 6. Military implications This one speaks for itself. It won’t be “robots vs robots”—it’ll be people using advanced systems against other people, with potentially rapid and devastating consequences. Final thoughts This isn’t just another wave of innovation—it’s a genuine societal shift. It creates enormous opportunity, but also serious risk: Greater concentration of wealth and power Increased dependence on governments and large corporations Potential exclusion from economic life if you’re “locked out” of key platforms And critically, this isn’t something any one country can handle alone—it likely requires global coordination, which historically hasn’t been our strong point. There are very few truly forward-thinking or benevolent governments out there, so realistically, we should expect a turbulent transition.

More.. I have been saying for some time, the hardware technology has now advanced enough that AI has reached a critical point where it is able to stat to acheive its potential. And that is almost absolute automation. It isn't just coding, by the way.. much of the white collar work will be displaced. Think about these professions: Accountancy Psychology Actuary/quantitative analysts (finance, insurance, etc) Traders, risk managers, settlements staff, compliance staff, etc. Sales Customer Support Real Estate Agents Copywriters, editors, even journalists to some extent Engineers, producte designers, etc. Architects Even scammers and hackers and other crimonals.. and of course, lawyers Health professionals The list goes on. A lot of their work will be replaced with AI as it has the analytical capability to do a lot of the work done by these profressions now. Of course, AI at this stage can't generally have those lightbulb moments as it relies on various probability models of observed data, so sitting on a bus looking at a clock and thinking !hmm, if this bus was doing the speed of light.. what would happen!, but what it can probabl do is automate a lot of the grunt work to get from that to the actual theory. If the reports of Anthropic Mythos are true, though, it may well be a step in that direction, too. What it means for the workforce: Mass displacement Anything that requires human dexterity at this point will still be in demand - I am not sure robotics has yet hit the scale necessary to be able to replace humans in these areas. So tradies, fine arts in painting (not printing), sculpture, etc will remain, labourers, hospitality, etc). Research - as AI can support, but still not theorise in the same way as humans, there will still be research. Management - probably executive only, but apparently Meta did some experiment with an AI version if Zuckerberg and employees couldn't tell. Small workforce driving the AI output. For example, in my area, we would need only a handful of senior people who know how to drive AI who would also be business domain experts and techncally savvy. The will need to be entrepreneurial, too, as they will be looking to drive innovation and an edge against their competitors. And with AI, you can do that very quickly. Will move from th gig economy to the side hustle economy. So, the theoretical $40m saving will: Initially, as Marrty states, go to the bottom line (hopefully I will get some of that if I can make it happen). But this is only inertia However, as more and more companies adopt, and as AI reduces the barriers of entry, competition will eventually take hold. Say, all banks use AI and have reduced their cost massively, we will go for market share and customers to grow our business. That will inevitably lead to lower margins until there is a normalisation of prices and returns. In theory, this will happen over time to all indistrues that use it. The cost of living in theory goes down.. but... There will be less money in the bulk of the population to afford a lot of this anyway. Eventually, as the governments see the issues arising (they are generally hopeless at foresight or at least hopeless on acting on it), they will have to address a burgeoning unemployment situation (country specific), lest there be civil war. This will mean even governments that don't like to step in will have to to redistribute the concentration of wealth as a result. In theory, you shoud get a better product, but it will be in the hands of those that control products. And as we saw with customer relationship management solutions, which had the potential to really improve the customer experience and reduce costs, management colelctively decided to use it to cut costs by offshoring and compounnd the shippy customer experience. Depending on where you are and the geopolitics of the time, will depend on how well a particular society handles the onslaught of change for the majority of the people. But there are a few things to think about from a sociological perspective: Psychological impact: With more time on peoples' hands and very large changes to societal structures in a short period of time, what will be the impact on the individuals and the community. We see our worth in our work, we need to be occupied, etc. What impact will there be of being able to sit around and do nothing? How much of th ecommunity will fall into chronic and sever mental illness - anxiety, depresseion, and worse? What will be be doing to avoid this sort of thing on a bigger scale than we already habve today? Education: No longer will our current education system and approach be relevant. Of course, we need to know the three Rs, but a much bigger emphasis will have to be on critical thinking (pollies don't generally like that), entreprenuership, and the like. Naturally, traditional subjects will remain as we will still need the professionals, trades, etc. Just a lot less of them. What to do with the rest of the population - the worker bees or ants, so to speak? Health: Will we have to start mandating some sort of physical and mental health management/exercise. What gets people out of bed today won't exist tomorrow and it is not apparent what will replace it for the vast majority tomorrow. Those old vids of China and I think Germany where people were mandated to attend mass physical exercise classes may well be needed going forward. Living wage: With so many people potentially being displaced, there are two options - one, a virtual collapse of the economy as the crticial mass can't afford anything so all this automation will yield nothing; or as I mentioned earlier, redistirbution of income to keep the economy and poeople going. Does everyone get a living wage - enough to put a roof over their head, food in the stomach, utilities paid, and some left over to spend money and keep the economy going. Econimics is always a law of diminishing returns, so is this the point that heralds the implosion of capitalism and necessity of socialism (which is not communism)? Do we have to rethink the term dole bludgers? Intensified migration and culture change: We are already seeing virtual collapses in birth rates amongst developed countries. Part of it is the cost of upbringing, but my guess is that it is more around the fact that many couples want a blend of preserving living standards and being able to lavish more on fewer kids than having to spread the same across more kids. And, wit mortalisty rates so low, you don't have to have 10 kids in the hope that two or three make it. More families are happy with 1 child than three; I was very happy with just the one for that very reason. With AI, where it is either harder to have kids because you can't afford it, or it is easy noit to have kids because of a living wage to everyone, in order to keep the economy going, you will still have to have people to give the money to, in order to spend it, in order to generate the economy. Third world will be behind the curve and looking for the juicy lifestyle this can bring.. or just free of their oppressive regimes. That can mean only one thing.. There will be no room for anti-immigration. You need someone to wipe your posterior in old age, it ain't gonna be a born and bred person. Wuth intensified migration, expect culture change. Military: I don't need to go into that.. we should all be able to see what will happen there. But let's not pretend it will be robots against robots.. It will be people using robots (drones, etc) against people who try to deploy robots to defend themselves. Once the barriers are broken, there will be carnage far quicker than Iran's protest suppression until a surrendr (if one is even listened to). There are other areas to consider, but the AI revolution (and that is what it is - a revolution) is a great opportunity and a great threat. It frightens me to say it, but we will be far more dependent on our governments' actions and approach than many other waves of change that have come across society. It will further concentrate wealth and power in a smaller number of corporates. If you don't do what they say, they will cut you off their platforms and lock you out of society. I use the term governments in the plural as it will require a global approach. Sadly,m there are few turly benevolent governments, so we are in for a tough ride.

Re nuclear, We have oodles of solar, wind, and wave... Re cost blowouts.. well, I wouldn't worry - I have never worked on a nuclear plant that didn't have one, and Hinkley Point C, in 2016 prices is going fro an original £18bn to £35bn in 2016 money (about £46bn in today's money). According to Google AI, Australian industry is moving to solar: Again, you can stick to old ways of doing things and hamstring us with high costs. Well done. Making Austalia Competitive Again (MACA).. Maybe that is all we will be able to afford to eat - MACCAs When I first entered the nuclear industry - now 30 years ago, I was all for Australia getting coasstal nuclear power stations. The renewable technology was not really there yet and it made a lot more sense that staying with coal - especially since we bloody well own the resources needed to run the darned thiungs. But we also have abundant sources of renewable energy and the technology has progressed immensly since then. Nuclear is, for Australia, the new fossil fuel. Even in the UK, where the sun is variable at best, wind is being used as is solar. Rooftop solar, before the Iran war, was steadily pickung up and the government ar debatign about whether to make it mandatory for new build properties.

At this early stage that is what will happen I would expect concentration in the AI market and costs to go up a bit, too

Claude.io from Anthropic is considered the bee's knees for coind. They have just released Mythos, it's next gen.. except they haven't released it to the general public. Apparently, without specific training, it identified zero day and other vulnerabilities. It is claimed to exceed the capability of all but the best developers: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2026/04/08/what-is-claude-mythos-and-why-anthropic-wont-let-anyone-use-it/ The software development industry is already being turned on its head. I used claude.io to quickly develop a prototype app that is fully industrlalised (i.e. uses all the correct data, application, user iunterface, security, distributed, and scaling techniques, complete with application and server health monitoring and the like). On the free version, it took my about two months because they have much stricter usage limits than ChapGpt. But, it was exceptionally well written code - and I didn't have to tell it what technoogy to use.. I basically said this is what I need, and it did the rest. Many companies are turning to AI.. a lot of Intergrated Development Environments (IDE's), which are th programs where you write code, debug, ibuild, etc, have AI already integrated. However, Claude is next level stuff already. Mythos basically will make the software development industry almost entirely automated. We are currently hiring a lot of software developers for a big new program of work - it is huge. I won't go into numbers, but from about September/October last year, I have increased my analysts fby a factor of 10. We have been hirign developers (we already have a reasonable number) - looking quadruple our developer count. Despite it being a buyers market, we are finding ti tough to find quality candidates and we are paying decent rates for London. So, I will be proposing to our AI team adopting an AI dev tool for our project. We have to deliver a shed load in a year, which is why we are looking to hire an army of people. But, for literally a few hundre dollars per user per month, we can get exceptional throughput. And here's the interesting thing: It can write the code and a separate AI bot will review the code and suggest improvements. If they are accepted, the improvements are fed back intoi the code writing bot as well. So, what does this do to the industry? It doesn't kill it entirely... The first thing I predict will be a virtual removal of programming languages.. Of you think about it, programming was originally writing a bunch of 1's and 0's in a specific way and took an eternity. And then, Assembler/Assembly (depending on which side of the tracks you were born) was developed as a human readable extraction of the CPU instructions. You had to learn Assmbler for each processor family (and sometimes individual chips). That saved a lot of time compared to the binary coding and the instruction set was somewhat standardised for standard operations. This is effectively a second generation language. Then came 3GLs - these were BASIC. fortran, COBOL, C, and these days Java, C#, Python and the like. They are general purpose langiages that are feature rich and provide a programmer all of the control needed, but the difference is that the language applied to any computer (wlell, almost).. as a compiler or interpreter to convert that code to binary code (executable code). So, in theory, if I wrote a COBOL program on an IBM Mainframe, it would compile and run on a PC with a COBOL compiler. The truth is there are extensions and platform specific functions. Although, Java, C# and Python have fixed that by being interpretative, and the use standard library extensions. 4GLs made a relatively brief appearance, in that they were higher level 3GLs - an attempt to make programming more English like and democratise development to the users. Ironically, langiages like Python, which are modern 3GLs have done more for that than the 4GLs. There are 5GLs, but they are largely obscure. But AI - especially such as Claude will, IMHO, replace computer languages as we know it. They will become English (or other human language) builders. At the moment, they are code generators.. I asked Claude to develop my app using Java and specific frameworks (though it suggested some better ones than I requested, so I went with its suggestion). When it did create a bug, a quick prompt fixed it. The article above talks about usign humans for reviewing the code, but I would suggest once there is critical mass of confidence in the technology, code will no longer be required. For example, you have your series of prompts to build an application. Claude (or other AIs) can generate the executable (or interpretive bytcode, a sort of executable) direct - no production of human readable code required. It will be tested and if it works, it can be deployed; if not, adjust the prompt, rebuild and retest. Back to my team; about 1/2 of my analysts are ex developers/software engineers - like myself. We have very good business domain knowledge and reasonably good, if outdated software development knowledge. My idea is that we are given a system architecutre (data lake, data frameworks, service platform, user interface platforms - e.g. desktop, tablet, phone), asd we start crafting the prompts to build the system. The first will be the data model, of which there are industry standards we can tweak. I would suggest we will have the data model done, say, in two days. We can use AI to populate the database and then write tests to ensure it works property. Say 2 - 3 days. Within 5 days I can have something that would take as maybe a month to get what we think is right and would probably take 2 analysts and some database admin support. The I can start building the individual functional services asnd UI, as well as integration to other systems. Let's say 2 months to build, system test, performance test, and have the users acceptance test it. The it is a deploy to the production environment. In fact, we could easily automate the testing, as well as for updates, any regression testing. Say add 2 months, maybe with a lead tester/QA person, an architect part time, a senior dev part time to review stuff, and maybe a database administrator part time. Otyherwise we would use analysts - probably between 3 and 5 because of the number of functions we have to deliver. And the best thing is, even if it produces spaghetti code (which it doesn't), I don't care, because what is important to me is the promtps that build the system. And you don't need to be a linguist or an expert in the coding or the specific language, database, user interface technology to use it. In fact, in my little home experiment, Clause inferred much of what it had to do without me needing to even hont at it. As I said, I can't give you exact numbers, but our non-AI plans are close to 100 people all up, with a minimum viable product at about a year, and then the full enchilada in two years.. and there will still be kinks to iron out, performance issues, regressions in releases, etc. But with maybe 5 analysts and a smattering of other support, I cam have the whole enchilada within 6 months. Now work out the man days. In the UK, there are about 220 working days for professionals.. 100-ish people * 220 days * 2 years = 44,000 working days. And my business has a cost of using manual processes and elevated operational controls from day 1, but reducing as more is delivered over a two year period. Now I have, say all my staff in an AI world on it full time (which I doubt, but let's go with it) = 110 days * 9 (5 analysts, 1 developer, 1 QA, 1 DBA, 1 Architect): 990 days. Assume $1000/Day per person. Without AI, $44m; With AI: $990,000. Assume $500/mo per user (that is what a company a friend of mine is paying Anthropic for Claude): $27,000 gives a total with AI of $1,017,000. Even if I am really, really optimistic, and we quadruple the estimates, that is $4,068,000, noit quite 10% of the costs of doing it the old way. It is going to be a bumpy ride, but in theory, all services should get cheaper once widespread AI adoption kicks in.

I was taught to earth to the body of the car - e.g. via a bolt (not of lightning), mount or similar.

Isn't that the basis of my post about the intention? I have no doubt about this. But that doen't, IMHO, change the fact that oil is the primary interest of the US, and Israel in this case is a smokescreen. I am not suggesting Chump is even driving it.. he may well be a puppet. The empire is in decline alright; the fall of Rome comes to mind. They won't go bankrupt for some time; and it is doubtful they ever will. The UK would have defaulted on its debt in 1976 but got an IMF or similar loan to keep it afloat. This was because of a sharp drop in teh £, but that was caused because of a banana republic type economy at the time. I think it is fair to say the UK never really recoverd and the EU gave it a bit of a lifeline. The US is likely to go the same way. From a credit risk perspective, a country can never go broke. It can continue to print its way out of problems, which will compound its internal economic woes; if they have debt denoted in a foreign currency they ahve to print more and accept hyperflation; if it is in their currency, their creditors get less. In credit risk, we treat each sovereign country as a going concern. We attache a CLR - Country Legal Rating; this means that we determine a ranking of how much they conform to the law. The US (even under Chump), the UK, Canada, Australia, NZ, most of western Europe and some of the central/eastern European countries all rank 1 (highest). Whilst their credit ratings will move, they are generally considered almost risk free (techncally the US is risk free, but that may change) in the sense that even if they default in their payments, you do eventually get it back with the back interest paid; it costs you to fnd the difference of the duration, though.

Don't blame me.. You assumed I meant pollies.. I would say this guy (if he is still there, and no doubt, his successor will do just as well, if not slightly better) gets paid pretty handsomely: https://www.themandarin.com.au/281154-david-fredericks-climate-change-energy-the-environment-and-water/ Given it's his boss that cops the flack.

The current mid rate (between buy and sell) on the wholesale markets is $1.91 (rounded to nearest cent) to £1 Normally I would take the sell rate as, if I was converting, that's what I would pay. But since I am earning £ anbd paying £ and you fellas are earning (or have) $ and paying $, it seems better to use the mid rate.

The senior ones, when including fringe benefits and then the lobbying, er, consulting gigs afterwards don't seem to do too badly

Diesel is £1.92 where I am. At the mid rates, it is $3.65 at time of writing. Petrol is £1.52, which is $2.89.

I don't disagree with this. Of course Iran is a threat to Israeli interests (i.e. survival) and US Interests. But what are US interests? Israel? Only to the extent Israel supports the US and contributes technology to US military. What other interest does the US have of the Middle East? Is it protecting it out of the goodness of its heart; or because of the extraction of oil from the Arab states there? As well as the profits that flow from services supporting their construction and oil industries. So, if the US is protecting its interests, it is really protecting oil, right? But what other interests does the US have? Well, it has an interest on containing China's industrial might, because, as we saw in WWII, indistrial might helps win world wars. It can't stop China getting hold of solar panels and rare earth minerals unless it invades China, which I think even Chumpo would work out isn't a great idea. Also, I would suspect there owuld be one or two other gulf states that would also be happy if the Iranian regime toppled. Who is to say they didn't lend their voices to this? I din't say it was a good idea. Let's face it; Chump's belligerent ideas are rarely any good. I was just proferring up a theory that isn't mainstream - but one that I thought may have some weight even at the beginning of this conflict - although I hadn't really thought about the China angle. But, I can think of one case where poking the bear good and proper would likely have solved at least one conflict.

Well, life on the CBF1000 continues. It is actually a very good all round bike.. I feel like I can tour on it all day, yet it has a little lean forward, and you can throw it nicely around - it won;t win any races, but is a smooth and responsive in line 4, with reasonably well matched suspension. It is a bit of a winter hack in places and now the weather is better, I will attack some of the rust spots. The stator still seems OK.. but I have narrowed the electrical issue I have with it. I have finally sorted out the heated grips, and they have a led that flashes green when it detects a drop below about 12.8volts or some such number, indicating the system is not charging and the ignition is switched off. And, whenever the high beam goes on or the brakes are applied, the light immediately starts flashing. As soon as they are released (or the high bean goes off), the led goes back to normal operating mode (red light for high). I have a USB connection and when it is drawing a current, it doesn't affect the heated grips, so I am thinking there is an issue with the wiring around the lighting. The switchgear is hard to get the high beam to stick on - but not a problem with the flash switch. Should be fun to trace.