While the press focus on equities in terms of how the economy is going, the real bellweather is the bond markets. These were surprisingly robust over the last couple of days. As most algorithms will head to US Treausry bonds (USTs) as a safe haven, as the stock market came crashing down, the USTs yields came down, which means the prices went up. This is because USTs are considered risk free. However, the credit bond markets, which are bonds made to companies, also was suprisingly robust on Thursday after the announcements. There are three classifications of creit bonds - financial institutions, investment grade corporates and non-investment grade corporates - or junk bonds. The difference between investment grade and "junk" is that investment grade are usually BBB- and up in the Moodys ratings. Junk can have ratings or be non-rated. It is important to note it is normally the credit quality of the bond itself, and not the issuer, that is important.
Anyway, the junk bond market sell off started in the US yesterday, and this is because there are fears of recessions. Some of these are fairly string companies, such as US Steel and Dole Foods. The spreads (between the offer and bid price that market markers provide) is the highest in 17 months. At the moment, the markets are saying to Trump, "this dont look too good" If a US Treasury inversion comes, where the 2 year yield curve is higher than the 10 year yield curve, then its run for the hills time.