Jerry_Atrick

BTW, you can replace drawing balls in an entry with this bit of python code: import secrets def draw_numbers(): return sorted(secrets.SystemRandom().sample(range(1, 45), 6)) print(draw_numbers()) That is it..

The outcome is totally random - yes. As I mentioned, a historical simulation may show a more or less universal distribution of drawn numbers, in which case the odds and the probability would be the same for all practical purposes. However, a historical simulation may show certain combinations of number drawn more often than others material enough to be a pattern or series of patterns emerging that increases the probability of sets of numbers being drawn. The draw is stall random, but the probability - and that is all it is - a probable and no guaranteed - set of drawn numbers may become higher than any old random selection. This could be because of say manufacturing imperfections of the balls where minutely different weight distributions result on some balls being more likely to be scooped than others.. And it could be that the probability if subsequent balls being drawn changes depends on what ball/s were previously drawn for the same reasons. In order to prove it, you would need a lot of data, including that of the factors that we define as determinative to the probability - but without those factors, we can only rely on the historical number draws. Given the permutations and combinations, coming to a single set of numbers likely to be drawn using a historical simulation would improve the probability - but only marginally at best. These simulations predict probable outcomes over various scenarios and normally a confidence level is provided. And it will be a probability map. So for example, it may give a probability for each number of that number being drawn first. For each number, it will give the probability of every other number being drawn second. Then for each number drawn second of the number that was drawn first, it will come up with a probability of each number not drawn yet to be drawn third, and so on. Taking this approach, there are 130m nodes in the map for each number drawn first. So, if 1 is drawn first, there will be a map of 130m possible permutations and combinations. Now multiply by 6 and that is how big the probability map will be. You can use a binary coefficient approach to reduce it, but you attenuate the probability calculation as a result because we don't know the factors that are causing some numbers to be picked more than others. Anyway, for a 6/45 lottery draw, the probability map reaches something like 900m nodes, each with a confidence factor. Of course, if we could pick our numbers just before each number is drawn, we could really improve our probability of winning. But we can't, so the only way to really improve the probability is to try and predict what the first through 6th number is going to be dependent on what we think the first number is going to be. So, in defining our confidence level, we have to look for any other correlations. As we have virtually no other known factors, the only thing I can think of is to look at time based cycles and add that to the algorithm to predict the different potential numbers to draw. And that is the rub. Coming up with one most likely to draw is not really going to to reduce it much; intuitively, I would reckon you need to put around 200k minimum bets on it spread across the different scenarios. And, it is still not guaranteed. I have no idea what the cost of a singe entry is, or 200k entries are against the normal prize value. So, it may be futile.. buit the above is a glimpse of algo trading (well, that would get smashed in the markets.. so I would not recommend it). Now I am rambling as I have had my first wine in 6 months - a Jim Barry McLaren Vale.. and very nice. What impressed me is my local Majestic Wines knew exactly which aisle I was heading for when I entered the shop... I digress. Anyway, chasing the single winning entry will probably not yield too much more likelihood than the basic odds.. it is how you play the probability map.

I currently live under a Ln optional voting and fist past the post system. I am not sure Farage would have been successful given the low voter turnout (44%) delivering him a 27% vote of the total electors in his seat

Sadly, this is as much as a reflection of society as it is of the media. If society didn't watch it, the media wouldn't produce it. Of course, if that is all the media publishes, it leaves people with only a choice not to watch and do something else.. and as creatures of comfort or convenience, people will probably take the idle path.

Of course, no AI or other software can change the odds of winning. But I would argue odds and probability are statistically two different things. The lotto is a totally random selection of 6 or so numbers from 45 (depending which lottery it is you are playing). That gives 1 in 14m-ish odds. We'll leave the system entries out. If you buy a ticket - you have exactly 1 in 14m-ish chances of winning. That is the odds regardless. Assuming you have randomly selected the numbers or say used a child's birthday week in, week out, you are likely to have the same probability as odds. But if you use some sort of historical simulation - especially something like a path-dependent Monte Carlo simulation which assumes randomness in the probability chain, you may detect certain patterns of numbers which come up more often than others. The more data sampling points you have, the more likely these patterns will repeat. However, below a certain threshold, the simulation is meaningless, and you would have to introduce variables into your simulation that you thought were material - that could be simply the combinations of numbers, slight imperfections in the balls that result in certain balls being in the scooping place more often relative to others, the order in which the balls are selected may also change that, the humidity even, etc etc. The point is, with enough historical data, you won't need to observe all those other minutiae factors as the patterns will tell their own story... And you may find, it can better predict the numbers likely to be drawn... and although your odds are exactly the same because it is a totally random draw, your probability of striking it lucky may increase. Of course, because the draw is totally random, it is not fool proof.. But it may say something like, for each number, if it is drawn first, this is the likely set of drawn numbers, and if the number drawn second is x, this is the likely set of following drawn numbers, etc.

I know, but it was funny.

I did rip this off Farcebook (while looking for a cheap and cheerless runabout before getting the next car)

Yes.. they are.. In terms of thread drift, I meant not changing it solely to a discussion about Tesla.

Back to climate change and combating it.. I haven't looked at the video yet, but as I understand, replacing the tanks with batteries and the ICE engine with motors, we are looking at c. 677 kms with a fully loaded truck. I did a google search and a Kenworth loaded to 44000lbs (number sticks in my head for some reason) will have a range of 1200 - 1800 miles - so around 2,000 to 2,800 kms give or take. I doubt any truck driver would do that in a day, but then I thought road trains loaded to their max weight after which AI told me it was 1,400 - 2,400 kms. I am guessing a truck with a single driver only will not do much more than 677kms in a day. But without changing stations, it would be interesting to see how long it would take for those big batteries to recharge sufficiently. Over here, the smaller commercial fleet is electrifying rapidly. This will put pressure on the grid, but will have to drive renewables to help.

At the risk of thread drift, they may be, but the used EV market is, at best, immature still. Also, I guess the used market is a measure of what has been, not what is coming. And, although not a fan boy, I like Teslas.. My point is that Tesla's engineering - once pioneering - seems to have been well overtaken. Yes, the Chinese have the state subsidies Tesla doesn't directly get (and probably indirectly reduced significantly since Musk's spat with Chump), but even in the innovation stakes, Tesla seems to be falling behind.. The Cyberfluck was a vanity project gone massively wrong., so let's discount that one. But, they have been at EV trucks for years and it looks like they have yet to crack that one. Their EV car offerings don't seem to have moved that much, and their quality control (at least in the USA plant) is apparently still woeful. And we shoudl remember, Tesla is a single company, not some institutionalised dev and research centre. Of course, they are a single company that is multi-faceted facing a whole industry (or number of industries). and I should have contextualised my observation to the EV market rather than everything Tesla does.. And maybe that is part of the problem for Tesla (not including Spacex in that).. They are in so many pies, will they be tha jack of all and master off none. So, I asked Chat where they stood against their competitors for innovation. There were too many categories to take a screen shot, so here is Chat's analysis (lazy, I know): AI Driving (autonomous I guess): Strongest commercially scalable but competitors have better proven tech Robotaxi/Cybercab: Middle of the range AI hardware: Most vertically scalable - ahead of the pack Batteries; Middle of the range on technology (still leading commercial position). Fast charging: Has been overtaken - Now at the lower end of the pack. Note, that could be commercially - Chat didn't say, so lets say it is in the middle of the pack now technically Charging Ecosystem (I am guessing this is the commercial bit): Ahead of the game with over 80k installations Grid batteries: Still ahead of the game Commercial humanoid robots: Potential there; behind the pack for deployment. Solar home energy - Still ahead of the pack. This was the prompt I used: "what are teslas latest technology innovations and how do they compare to the competition" So overall, they are they are still technically innovative - yes.

BTW, sitting on an electric double decker bus - clean air, no resonating vibration and no heat from the engine getting onto the back seats

I wonder why, despite the corporate shenanigans, Tesla's engineering falls behind like it does

The Trivago ads over here featured ab Aussie voice. I don't get ads much as I only watch YouTube channels that rarely play them.. or streaming..

I had an odd experience at work yesterday. A work colleague and I sparred quite some time ago- around the time of the election - about Chump; he was defending Chump vehemently and of course I took the opposite position. We respectfully agreed to disagree and left it at that. I probably wrote about it on this thread. Yesterday was the first time in eons we were in the office coincidentally. To be honest, I had totally forgotten our conversation, but he dragged me aside and quietly conceded he was very wrong about Chump,, Interestingly, the final straw wasn't the criminal activity nor the corruption, but the invasion of Iran...

I managed to get a great deal online for a Citroen C3 1.2l petrol manual for hire since my Volvo's diff decided to poop itself on the weekend. But, imagine the horror on my face when they didn't actually have one and the only car they had that they wouldn't charge me extra for was a BMW i-4 M Sport, with range just shy of 300 miles. I was not impressed at all 😉 So, I have this fancy sparky car for the princely sum of GBP 95 for the week (around $190).. plus GBP45 for the excess insurance. I suggested they do a 6 month rental but the manager told me they are paying about twice for the lease on it I have had it 36 hours now; picked it up from Exeter airport. I love it. It is probably a cut above the MG4 Urban I am looking t, but taking away the fancy stuff, it is soooooo smooth. And there's enough road noise to cover for the lack of engine growl. What I really love is you can park just about anywhere there is a charger and as long as it is plugged in, at least on council parking areas, you don't pay car parking fees.. it doesn't have to be charging. Though, some people have abused it so our council is bringing in limits post charging complete. Virtually every supermarket is installing fast chargers. I stopped at the Sainsburys in Richmond and the price for a 400kw/h charger - not that I got anywhere near that - was 62p/hr with my nectar (loyalty) card or 72p/hr without it. I did top up the car last night before the commute to Londong this morning at a 200kw/h charger in the council car park - that was a rip off at 92p/kwh. I did get some range anxiety this morning on the way in. wanted to make sure that I had enough to get to the services tomorrow, so stopped at Reading Services and aid 92p/kwh. FFS, how can the vendor of a council site - and the council - allow the same cost as a services and the charger at the council site was 1/2 the recharge rate of the services! Out council is stuffed (another thread I know). . Compared to the Sainsbury's charging,, the services costs were expected as they are about 20 - 30p a litre more for petrol. But the real advantage is that you can almost park anywhere near where you want to go and charge up while you do whatever you want to do, That council car park was around the corner fro where we went to dinner on Sunday night. So, if I am low on fuel, I can park nearby and while chowing down, shipping, or whatever, the car fuels itself. Now, if that charging point happens to be full, the satnav in the car will direct you to the nearest that is available at the charge rate you want. Back to the driving.. It is as smooth as silk and the acceleration is brisk to say the least.. think pushing you into the back of the seat like an F18 with your lips and gums compressing against your cheek bone fast. Sorry Jeremy Clarkson, some ICE based Porsche simply doesn't compete (a fiend as a 911 targo or something - admittedly older - and it is quick - but nothing like this). BTW, it doesn't matter what speed (at least to about 70mph) one is doing.. the acceleration feels much the same.. break neck. Because it is a heavy car, and with a lower centre of gravity, it really sticks to the road.. And I mean sticks. I have thrown it around roundabouts and corners at speeds that were pushing my innards outwards from the sides.. but the car stuck to the tarmac like it was a fly to flypaper. And braking is almost a thing of the past, except for emergency braking. After about 20 minutes of driving on the motorway, I worked out how to just use normal foresight to come off the accelerator enough to put s smidge of electricity back into the battery, but more important to the environment, massively reduce the asbestos dust that is being generated I have had my Volvo for 13 years - it is a big old lump that I rarely drove respectfully.. and in that time I went through a set of pads once... and at the same time discs.. As a cheapskate, I found OEM aftermarkets a darned sight cheaper than the fleecers (IMHO) of the main Volvo dealer somewhere near me.. so I am not saying regenerative braking will save me a lot of money... but the environment has to be worth something, right? But there are some niggling things - not all to do with the car or the battery/technology. But, some were to do with the car. Despite the car's supposed 200kw/h charging capacity, it only peaked at 120kw/h and only for a short period. It averaged 50 I would say, and reduced significantly as the charge rate went up. This meant, when the battery was at 45% charge coming into Reading, it was a good 40 minutes before it got to 85%, I did a bit of research as to why that would be the case and there are two reasons.. a) something wrong with th charging system or b) I didn't pre-condition the battery, Although I didn't.. it was after a 100 mile trip at 75mph and I would be very surprised if it was not warm enough to take the faster charging. I got similar recharging rates this afternoon at Sainsbury's and I forgot to pre-condition - but it was 28 degrees. I have put a post it note in the car to pre-condition the battery before the next charge. But, although not necessary in this case and I know the battery charge rate is probably better on a non-hire car, 40 minutes was a bit shit. Thankfully, at my age, I managed to get two pees in the service's dunnies, rather than the regulatory one. So, I feel the ore expensive charge rate was justified in this case. But seriously, as my daughter did point out, if you are low and in a hurry, liquid fuel is going to be quicker. But how often does that really happen? One of the rubbish things about renting a BEV is that you only have what charging cable they give you. And it will rarely be a 3 pin power point plug. And I will be darned if I am going to buy a GBP* 50 adaptor for the week (but I may well be paying for it in higher electricity costs of public charging stations). OK, that has nothing to do with electric vehicles per se, bit it would have been gppd for the standard plug to the the basic power point plug of the country. Of course, the UK domestic plug is a beaut and easily handles 32 amps; and I am sure Aussie ones do, too. but with a rental, at least in the UK from this major brand, you have to either buy an adaptor (assuming you have a 32A socket) or pay more at public charging points/stations. And one of the issues is the sheer inconsistencies of the infrastructure. I sort of lump the problems of it. You know those lively distributed charging stations/points? They aren't monitored like the pumps of a servo (at least when it is opened). So, there are a lot that are vandalised. Oh they have CCTV, bit a balaclava sporting scrote on a stolen moped on a path of destruction is hardly going to be concerned about being caught on CCTV in a country where non violent theft is not even investigated anymore. Then you have basic incompatibility - with the car and the payment method. The Taunton Crescent car park, which was remodelled at great ratepayer (council tax payer) expense while at he same time reducing capacity beyond that from just the installation of BEV chargers, did not seen to recognise my rented car, nor despite the instruction signs indicating otherwise, my debit card for payment, I spent about 10 minutes faffing about before giving up and moving to the next place. And on top of that, my shit council (IMHO) charged for parking in addition to the rent they receive, and I am guessing the commission on that expensive per KW/H charging costs. Of course, if you can't charge your car they aren't earning the commission. Most of my gripes are about charging.. but like the above, are nothing to do with the car itself.. but, like the curtailment costs of Scottish wind generation, crap planning and implementation Serioulsy, how decision makers get into decision making jobs is beyond me, So, after giving up on the Crescent car park, I went to the next closed place with decent charging rate chargers - the Taunton Marks and Spencers Car park, and realised that they closed that car park not too long after closing.. and given I was there not too long before closing,, it rally wasn't an option staying as the beemer did not come with the optional root top tent to be used in the case of such a circumstance. The Beemer satnav told me the next closest fastest chargers was a Morrisons Supermarket carpark.. Morrisons is a cross between IGA and Ken Bruce in terms of its demographics (if you're not from Vic, you're not mad; you have never heard of Ken Bruce nor seen his quality ads with a stuffed cockatoo on his shoulder). I arrived and although the supermarket was going to be open for at least anout 1.5 hours, they set up bricks and bollards to block us now frustrated and somewhat nervous BEV drivers with only 48% battery left.. My dog.. With only 100 miles range left, where I am going to find a charger that works, is going to be open and will read my worn out debit card? The council buildings.. and they are, IMHO, mongrels for what they charge. Compared to the Devon council, IMHO, they are charlatans. Sadly, SWMBO is becoming a technophbe.. so I can't persuade her to go for the Beemer.. So it is an automatics M4 Urban... Petrol that uses a funny cable to deliver the petrol - that is because it has to be filtered properly.