Jerry_Atrick

Well, this two weeks has drawn to a close. I am sitting in an airport bar (Melbourne Airport, by the way, is ship.. too small.. and $32 for a glass of wine - WTF - I paid $40 for a much better bottle at a Bellarine Peninsula vineyard yesterday) reflecting on this trip. This trip has been.. in a word... "meh". It has been basically visit mum, back at bro's by 2pm and work until ostensibly midnight, but usually an hour or so later.. And I have had this cold that does not want to be killed. A decent shot of nasal spray just before I board should see me right, though. Sounds crap, right? Well, no.. I can say I don't want to repeat this next time. But I can also say, there was enough great stuff to counter the crap. My usual sojourn to Tocumwal never lets me down. For the first time ever (and I have spent a lot of time there gliding), I visited, let alone stayed at the Tocumwal Palms Hotel Motel (I stayed there, too). Probably the equivalent if the "Union" hotel in a rural ton where there is also a "Commercial", it was surprisingly a fantastic hotel. And if you are staying in Tocumwal, I can honestly recommend their accommodation - clean, modern, spacious, bright, well equipped as a motel. The only thing missing was a table to sit at.. but the pub has plenty of those. This was the first time in my life I have visited Tocumwal and not visited the aerodrome. I cancelled the viewing of the on-aerodrome property I was supposed to look at. I decided I just wanted to savour the town for once. I got there about 3pm, checked in and went for a walk, soaking up the atmosphere. And it is a relaxed friendly vibe. Despite my natural aloofness, people would initiate a conversation. Back at the pub, I got a table; a cold VB (it was 27 degrees outside). I sat on the covered patio (is the best way I can describe it). It was obviously too cold for the flies to come out. Showing my antisocial tendencies, I pulled out my laptop and actually logged into work although I was technically on hols. And then I shit down and dropped a post on here. I am now on my second pot of VB (despite Tocumwal technically being in NSW, they use Vic measurements). Some bloke in a high vis walks up to me and strikes a conversation about the weather - and being now a UK citizen with an Aussie accent, I think to myself, "How British!". He works for a local excavation company, and supports. Hawthorn II forgot to mention, I have my 10 year Hawks membership sticker on my laptop). He doesn't believe I live in the UK and want to set up shop in retirement in Tocumwal. Not that a UK person would want to move to Tocumwal.. but someone would want to actually work in their retirement. Tne intervening Saturday, I meet an old mate (who also worked for me in London, but not the same buy I bumped into in the other thread I just posted to). We are at the Harp and Hound in Queen Street Melbourne. As I arrive in Flinders Street, there is an array for men and women in their evening best - most quite drunk and loud, but having a great time and annoying no one, but those who don't like anyone having fun. It is the last day of the spring racing carnival. I have no ide what the race was, but I have to say, I quite enjoyed the sights of one set of people. In the pub, my mate and I set a 4 pint limit. After which, we have a lime and soda each and after a great night of conversation and the odd interaction with others, bid farewell. The trains are so much better than when I lived here and they run late enough that you don't have to worry about Silvertop Taxis anymore (or is it Uber, these days). Second $32 glass has arrived.. F! Mind you, it is a Yarra Valley wine and I am sure is very average here, is like honey to a bee. Friday night just gone and I have booked the day off work (cost me a day of holiday). I take my bro and sis in law to dinner, We decide we will go to the city - well what was Southbank but is ow Southgate. It has changed a little since I left - many of the businesses have gone, but it is basically the same. But before we cross the Yarra, on the Flinders Street side, there is a river bank restaurant to our left.., with a swimming pool. Only some Melbournian would think that would work. No one was in it as it was a cold night, but the restaurant was well frequented. I suggested if we could find an authentic Mexican restaurant, let's check it out. Well, we couldn't.. but there was a Tex Mex restaurant - La Hacienda or soe such name. To be honest, it was a little shmultzy looking. But I have had Tex Mex in Texas (and mist of the US), Australia (with a fantastic place in Clayton before Taco Bill bought it out), and Europe.. and this was the best I have had. After dinner, we walked over Princes Bridge and around the CBD a bit.. It was fantastic. People having fun... no knives, either. Yesterday, I went to the Bellarine peninsula with my brother. I felt absolutely shit. This cold had taken hold But, afger he tended to his retirement property, we stopped at two vineyards (for me to buy a couple of bottles for my partner), Wine tasting is still free. Then we went to another vineyard that did east bites for lunch, overlooking Port Philip bay. I had Bundaberg Creamy Soda.. OMG, what a treat that was.. Good food (entree calamari and battered zucchini we shared), views (despite grey cloud and drizzle). Mind you, I slept for about 15 hours after that trip.. Today, I fly home. By the time I went to renew the insurance on my motorcycle, it had expired so I have to call them. So rather than ride the 2.5 hours home when I get to Heathrow I will go to work, sort out the insurance while there. My next trip is the end of March next year. I will be bringing my daughter, But it will be four rather than two weeks.. and two of those will be traveling.. Oh, and this is my drinking record on this trip, now I am back on the booze. Fist night... 1 glass of red at my bros... Toc.. 3 pots of VB... Saturday with my mate.. 4 pints of some lager.. Friday.. a 3.5% Peroni, and a glass of chardonnay.. Yesterday 6 sips tasting,,, Today, Would estimate 500mls of decent Chardy..

I read an article in The Age today of the unlikely PHON voters.. It was taken from Pakenham to Gippsland and based on who the journos interacted with. The Sri Lankan community look like they are very much in favour of PHON citing the need to get immigration under control and focus on importing skilled migrants. Of course, the mines and power stations winding down have had an impact. As usual, governments of all colours allow it to happen without necessary transition plans. Replacing whole industries with a few more public servants hasn't cut it. There were those who have also been struggling, and an ex union leader. Of course, it's not statistically valid enough to say what will happen, but as I sit at the airport and reflect, there does appear to be a groundswell of fundamental discontent with the state of play. I bumped into an ex work colleague fro London, who is Australian and repatriated about 10 years go. He is in work but his concern is it may not last for long. His assertion is that as the latest wave ot IT immigrants are climbing the corporate ladder, they aseem to be favouring their own and not being too equal-opportunity focused. I would normally discount it as someone having a bit of a whinge because they are being overlooked for others better than them, but this bloke has worked for me and I know his capabilities. Assuming he was not lying, he described situations where consistently others far more competent were overlooked for those of similar backgrounds - that resulted in near disaster (in corporate terms of course, which mean screing something up but not ending the earth). Whether or not it is true, perceptions matter and sadly most of the electorate take perception over fact. And that weighs on peoples minds. And the corruption - it seems mind boggling (on all three major sides).

If you could guarantee a benevolent, integral and peaceful dictatorship, life in theory would be very good. But, alas, it isn;t a sustainable feature of humanity. Independents? Even if the independent was inconsistent with your ideology, the power they wield is limited.

You're able to get free electricity today because of solar; not coal. If electricity prices are going to double in real terms it is because governments mismanage the rollout - just like In the UK.

Geez you guys have short memories. SFM and Duttons hot Mike gaffe about our Pacific islanders losing thir countries was far worse.

Didn't the taxpayer gift QANTAS well during COVID and they illegally fired a bunch of people anyway?

Well, no but aoart from say the Commonwealth Bank and Telstra - most don't have their roots in privatisation of such recognisable brands. But almst all excet the consultancies have a strong claim to being Australian birn and bred and in a spirit of being Australian that is pivotal to their emotional marketing. Most aso market heavily in their contribution to Australian society. So the fact one has a catchhrase the spirit of Australia does not mean that they ar the only ones trying to market the same message in differnt ways. Absolutely. All pollies should not be allowed to join the Chariman's club based on a conflict of interest. Even in the allegedly more corrupt UK, those sort of pers are against Erskine's rules of parliament (the closest thing to a written constitution the UK has). Then decisions such as not allowing QATAR Arlines to fly to Australia shortly after COVID lockdowns were dropped would have less of an air of biased protection, Of course, the biggest protection is no government nor the ACCC are going to force the airport operators to surrender a portion of QANTAS slots and gates to other airlines to brig in true competition, Allwe have now is, in reality, a two airline system we always had, but with companies making profits. But, I accept that the pricing has improve significantly for the consumer. But this got me thinking. Is this short term bonuses to the execs that the journos are all writing about? I am sure part of it is that.. but I am also sure there is a longer term plan. QANTAS is a publicly listed airline. In order for it to continue to provide a return to its shareholders, it has to provide growth. One of the problems QANTAS has is it is generally an expensive airline. That is OK in Australia for two reasons. Firstly, the cost of doing business in Australia makes QANTAS competitive to Virgin Aus or Blue or whatever it is called today. The brand loyalty and sheer capacity over its competitor makes it formidable in Australia even if it costs a bit more.. That brand loyality is really strong in Australia. But its route model is one that is based around flying people domestically and flying people between the rest of the world and Australia. That means the market is somewhat capped. An to be honest, QANTAS is usually far more expensive than the other airlines getting you from the rest of the word to Australia. In this trip and the last, the cheapest non-code shared trip was double the price of QATAR last time and Singapore this time. Double! Even before I shredded brand loyalty thanks to the move of maintenance overseas, when I went to QANTAS first, I wouldn't take that much of a hit. I could have got code share flying some airline I wouldn't normally to the middle east and then QANTAS from there, I think.. There is no doubt a bit of profiteering and yes, Joyce gutted the company, which was driven largely by short termism. However, the only way I can see QANTAS growing in anything more than too much CPI once the short term cost reductions are made is to grow its international network. That is difficult enough due to capacity constraints globally, but impossible with a high cost base that has to make a profit. For example the last time I flew from London to San Francisco was with JAL. That's right, a Japanese airline. Their model is (or was) routes all over the world. Unless I was doing multi-city, no one is going to take o flight of the route to get from Tokyo to San Francisco and back. They may integrate it into their trunk routes, but it is designed to be a service from London to the USA. In order to improve growth in the future, QANTAS execs may be thinking they need to expand their routes to attract pax not intending to visit Australia. As these people are likely not Australian, they have no brand loyalty (generally - I do know a couple of yanks that will only fly QANTAS when the route supports it - thanks to Rainman). So, in order for Australia to compete on the big stage, it has to lower costs to it can price v quality compete The obvious is to move back office ops to a cheaper location and automate as much as possible.. That is my alternate theory.

Th QANTAS (or iIMHO, QANTARSE) shipping 840 jobs off to India (and hiding the fact there was an AI element) seems to hve created a bit of a backlash. But this is not the first time they have done it and won't be the last. In fact, the earliest I know of was in the mid 90s with Telstra offshoring a lot of its information technology jobs, too. So I asked chat to generate me a table of private and publicly listed Australian companies that have off-shored jobs from Australia. Its context response is: "I’ll consolidate this into one table and distinguish four measures: Australian roles transferred, offshore staff hired to support Australian operations, proposed transfers, and jobs brought back onshore. I’ll exclude global headcounts unless there is evidence they serve Australian operations." Here is the table: So offshoring not necessarily that bad, but look at the second table - People they outright hire overseas to support Aussie operations. .which means rather than create the job here, create it somewhere else. Also, note that there are a couple of offshoring initiatives I know of that are missing, so this is an understatement. Consider there are no resource/mining companies in that mix. And the QANTAS maintenance outsourcing.. So, I would suggest the numbers are a lot higher than the above and a decent more number of companies Also consider that there have been foreign takeovers of Aussie companies that may have shipped jobs O/S before the takeover but certainly did afterwards. And this does not include foreign companies.. e,g, IBM and the like, which no doubt take work in Australia (e.g. build government department a bespoke system) and then ship the work to a low cost destination. I am not saying IBM have done this... it is hypothetical, but it is a good way for the government to get the benefit of cheaper overseas resources without directly offshoring its operations. So, I get the backlash against QANTAS. But, there is a lot more doing and have done so for a long time, And I bet QANTAS are betting, like the backlash when they exported maintenance jobs overseas, it will all die down and because they have the lion's share of the capacity in Australia (airport slots/gates), it will blow over and not materially impact the bottom line And, no other copany on the above list seems to have suffered as a result of that they have done..

The ex colleague I had lunch with yesterday who has been unemployed for some time. She works at the coal face in IT and says at that level, it is now who you know and not what you know. Her last three gigs were as a result of contacts. Some of it is displacement by AI. Some of it is offshored. In the absence of a complete tax overhaul so mega profits can be taxed to support s population for which there will be very few jobs at he coal face, I suggested a tax on jobs offshored (so not technically displaced by AI). If a company has operations in Australia and a job is being performed overseas in direct support of the Australian operations, then the firm should have to pay a tax to cover the displacement of the local working population. For new foreign start ups, they have a year to ramp up their local employment after which the tax will apply. Of course there are some pragmatic hurdles that have to be overcome such as identifying the roles overseas, but governments have put in "solutions" for trickier issues.. I am sure the right brains applied could come up with something no matter how imperfect

My MIL volunteers in an op shop (called charity shop in the UK). They benefit from full relief of business council tax (rates) and of course, largely volunteers (I think there i a paid manager - but they will not be on much money). My MIL said revenues are up since the cost of living crisis, and that people who one would not normally associate with sopping at op shops. I wonder if that is the same here (in Aus as I type ;-))

Had lunch today with an ex work colleague I have not seen since 2005. When she worked with usm she was 20 years old.. She now has a family and is nice and settled. We had 21 years of catch up and it was great to see her again. We had lunch in a cafe in Dorcas street, just around the corner from Clarendon Rod, South Melbourne. Itis a lovely part of Melbourne with old architecture, but nice wide streets. Food was a little pricey, but good quality.. we strolled to a cafe on Clarendon Street and watched the world go by reminiscing about the good old days, having a moan about growing old, etc. The only rel complaint was the parking stasi.. they were in force and swooped quickly in expired motorists. I managed to avoid one but a few seconds. The $105 bill is not that big its about 80 pounds in London these days if you pay it in 14 days and doubles if you pay it in 28. But, where we were, there were plenty of spaces empty.. as there were shops as well.. so I am not sure it was because of the parking fees and fines there was so many spaces. When there are that many, they should probably allow 2 hour free parking - if you stay longer then you get the bill.

Beautiful day in Melbourne, today. Life is good.

It does look dire for Labor. Of course, the only poll that matters is on election day and sometimes when it looks like a drubbing some of the usually faithful that were intending to vote the other way do return, but that is a huge gap - even if it is a biased poll and taken from voters only in the electorate of Hawthorn (where I have only seen signs for the Lib or indepdendent). Thankfully I am no longer on the register (and it's too late to re-register). I would be quit despondent. There really isn't too much different between ALP and LNP in what they are offering. All three of the majors seem to be pretty well corrupt. Haven't heard boo from the Greens... I think I would be going independent.

That should read Monday back in England is going to be fun. I was on a phone at the time, so I can only plead autocorrect (from a typo, anyway)

Hey babe; take a walk on the wild side.

I haven't seen his whole press conference, but everything in that snippet made sense at least to me. Of course, I would go for a complete and radical overhaul of how taxation would work...

Here is someone who has a plan to help people. I haven't seen the whole press conference, but we need more people in politics thinking like this: Note, it is mainly foreign shareholders that really benefit from the current arrangements and yes, business won't like it, but when there's enough money still to be made, they will stay Norway, Qatar, and a host of others have proved it.

I am not meaning to be a sinophobe, but China is positioning itself to be a global superpower like no other. Like the many countries but more recent stark examples such as Japan, Korea, and Taiwan, they start with a cheap labour force and other factors of production and start manufacturing the basic goods.. almost commoditised types of goods. It is cheap, breaks and generally OK to throw away after a while But then they invest in technology and manufacturing processes and their cheap goods soon become durable and relatively high quality. You only have to look at the Chinese car manufacturing industry to see how that has come leaps and bounds in a very short period of time - about 10 years in major exports (yes, they have had a domestic car industry for much longer time and they have been exporting cars for a longer time, too.. but not at mass scale as today). Certainly in my life time, Australia never really enjoyed comparatively lower costs of labour or other factors of production. So we are always going to struggle to compete. Although there was a vibrant manufacturing sector, it was largely domestic.. Now, China is advancing into the high tech manufacturing and doing a good job of it. But unlike the other countries named, there are two major differences: the population and size of the economy as its wealth from exports increases.. and the government still has largely autocratic control and it decides on the allocation of resources, unlike western type economies where managers focusing on the short term share price and bonuses as a result decide the allocation of resources. And the Chinese government plans for the long term. With a cashed up government thanks to exports and control over industry, China is perfectly placed rise to be the (not a) global superpower. That is a little dramatic but not improbable. Sorry for the thread drift.

No so good for union apparently https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-11-09/live-updates-england-vs-wallabies-nations-championship/107351328?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other And according to the article, England have beaten Australia 12 of yhe last 14 times. Money back in England is not going to be fun

Old time rock and roll

Yep and the LNP continued to grow it at the same rate from 2013 to 2019.. switch looks very different to what the curve looks like since Albo came to power.. But that was my point.. Albo's government in real terms has flat lined debt - actually reduced it; yet the press are blaming him for the high debt levels caused by previous governments both LNP and ALP

Ahhh.. Blame the current bloke for the previous guy's failings. In the current value of money, here is Australia's debt curve... Adjusted for inflation of course.. So, the total debt in today's money has reduced slightly since 2022 not long after Albo had taken over. The graph steadily increases since the previous ALP government, continues during the LNP (we'll excuse the rate of increase over the 2 year COVID period).. Albo gets in and it steadily reduces, with a slight increase but still below the levels he took over. Yep, I agree.. with pollies, it's other people's money. But it clearly isn't Albo's debt - it is the previous guys.. the ones a lot of people think are the safe pair of hands with the economy because that's what the media owners want them to think. He could do his bit to reduce the debt further - property tax gas exports, reduce corporate welfare, etc. But the press don't like that.

Aren't those Christmas lights in a certain section of Amsterdam?

A lot of news seems to point to the Republicans finally realising that Chump is... a chump and the electorate have cottoned on. A lot of Republican congress people are apparently very concerned about what he will get up to over the next couple of years and how it could further erode their jobs come next election. Whilst it won't be easy, there is talk that he may well not make it for much longer.. The problem is, who will replace him?

This was my route Wednesday and Thursday (with the obligatory overnight stop at Tocumwal): It was a very pleasant drive. Back in July, it was straight up and back.. There were potholes on the Hume and the Golbourn Valley Highway.. Not a lot, but enough, and certainly big enough to cause some real problems (I did hit one.. it thankfully did no discernible damage, but it gave me a bloody decent jolt.. And I wasn't going fast - maybe 70km/h. This time there were no potholes for most of the same route to Tocumwal. In fact, when you turn onto the Newell Highway that road is in bloody good condition, and makes the NSW roads look decidedly unmaintained. The route form Tocumwal via Echuca and Bendigo was a bit differnt, but to be honest, not much worse for most of it than I recall when I lived here over 30 years ago. Quite bumpy in places and dips galore. There were clearly areas where if they weren't attnded tom potholes would form in the not too distant future. There was a town - I can't recall which - maybe Rochester or Huntly - where there were a disproportionate number of potholes and I do recall two potholes on the Murray Valley which happened to be the width of my wheelbase as I did hit them before getting to Echuca - but they weren't deep and not terribly bumpy. Of course if cars/tricks keep hitting them it won't be long before they are bumpy. You could see lots of repaired potholes - some looked very temporary. I am not sure why they attacked only the holes though - some areas of road were visibly damaged around the holes and they should have repaired the whole section. But, I guess there is a need to get the holes plugged ASAP. I came off the Calder/Tulla freeway at Bell Street to Bulleen Road then back on myself a bit to Burke Road and then onto Moorabbin airport via the South Eastern and Warragul road. I absolutely agree with this: The amount of what look like B-Doubles compared to when I last lived in Melbourne rolling through suburban roads (I don't recall any when I last lived here) is amazing. I understand the economics to the companies operating transport businesses and that use them, but it was a bit of a brain fart on many levels to increase the weight on all but very specific routes (I am sure they are not allowed down streets, but some roads didn't seem designed for them).