Jerry_Atrick

I forgot to mention, the laws for getting a licence have changed. You can get a learners at 17 as per normal. At 18, you can get an A1 licence, which restricts you to 125cc still but you can ride on motorways, carry pillions, and not display L plates (P plates are optional in the UK). At 19, whether or not you have the A1 license, yuou can go straight to an A2 license, as long as you train and pass the test on a bike of around 33kw. This allows you to do the same as an A1, but on a bike up to 33 kw. You can get a bile up to 66kw and have a certified restrictor kit to take it to 33kw fitted until you get an A (full) motorcycle license. At 24, you can go straight to the full licence after a CBT has been achieved if you pass the course on a minimum sized bikle even if you have not had a car license. You can also skip the A2 licence at 21 and go straight to the full licence if you have had an A2 license for 2 consecutive years. My son, who is 23, has decided he wants to do the A2 licence, and wants to do some touring with me. That is always nice. Here is a YT vid on getting your licence:

I was a late starter learning to ride a motorbike (as with most things in life, really). When I was 27, I did a one or two day L plate course with a company called Stay Upright. The course was great as it was done at the old RAAF laverton airbase. We were hooning around on Suzuki GN250s and some tank was being put through its paces. Apparently, they were testing it for purchase, and that day the plan was to see if they could roll it. They looked luike they were having fun as well. I never did progress from the L plates. It wasn't that I lost interest, but in the big scheme of things, motorcycling was a lower priority - certainly than flying - so once it lapsed (after a year or two - I can't remember), I didn't renew it. At 31, I moved to the UK and with a haitus in flying, I thought - for a very long time as it turns out - about getting a licence. At the time, in the UK, it was similar to Australia, except that learners (CBT - Compulsory Basic Training) were (and still are) restricted to 125cc motorbies, about 1/2 of their Aussie counterparts. A change in the law came, in the form as Direct Access motorcycle licences. I can't remember the precise rule, but it was something like if one was over 25 and had a full driving licence for over 5 years, they could get their CBT (learners), and then, if they did a minimum of a certain amount of hours training and pass their test on a bike of more than 47 hp or thereabouts, they got a full motorcycle license. Well, I thought about it, moved to Australia for a couple of years, and then returned. In the time I was in Australia, the EU expanded from 11 or so to something like 27, and it seemed most of the tradies from the new countries rocked up ionto South West and West London. At the same timne, London introduced a congestion charge, resulting in a lot of cars skirting the zone. And the problem for me was my work at the time was not in the city - but in Watford. The transport links from my place to Watford was slow, decrepit and passed through areas that were not very safe. Ironically, my last jon before moving to Australia was 2 doors from my new job after arriving back. Before moving to Australia, normal driving to work was about 40 minutes or so.. After returning form Australia, that same drive had around doubled with the sheer volume of traffic on the road. We just had a daughter and I convinced my partner that to be able to at least see her, I should get a motorcycle. I got my CBT in a suburb called Croydon. It is a bit of a shiphole, but the training organisation and instructors were great. In the morning, I couldn;t release the clutch without stalling it. By the afternoon, I was reasonably confident on the road. I really enjoyed it, albiet the bike being a whole 12 hp. On the Monday, I trundled into Motorcycles Direct in Watford and bought a brand spanking new Honda CG125 to spend time getting used to the road and riding before doing the cirect access course. It took a couple of days for them to pre it for delivery (it had to be assembled, etc, and they were quite busy at the time). On the day it was ready, I lugged my protective clothing, helmet and boots, in on public transport! I let my partner know I would be home much quicker than with the car as the bike was narrow and would easly filter through traffic. I was looking forward to being a smug little git passing in between cars stopped in a traffic jam. That very first ride home took almost 2 hours! As a CBT holder, one is not allowed on the motorways, and a motorway was part of my normal journey. And even though it was in peak hour, becasue I would be going against the flow of traffic, the motorway section was always fast (normally 80mph until the end of the line). So, I had to take normal roads home.. And they tend to be a lot busier. Not only that, but as I came up to my first set of lights, the gap between the cars looked decidedly marrpw and dangerous to this 40+ year old learner. So, I ended up on normal suburban roads, stuyck in traffic and not filtering to the front of the queue. To say my partner was not happy when I got home woud earn youy a prize of the understatement of the year. I figured it was useless doing the direct access course if I was too timid to filter through traffic. After maybe two weeks, I racked up the nerve to try it and by the end of that week, I was filtering through traffic confidently and safely. I was still taking longer to get home on account of being stuck on long suburban roads, bt at least it was well under 2 hours. I used to visit the bike shop regularly as I got to know one of the salesman, and ogle the new big-boys bikes. Anyway, one day, I walked in and declared I was going to go back to the school in Croydon and do the direct access course. They suggested using a local Watford school (not so local to me!). So I went theit their suggestion and also very good instructors. I booked a 5 day course over three weekends. Blimey, riding a big bike is easier than the little ones I though, although those slow u-turns took some getting used to. I was booked in for the test at a suburb called Penge. This was, of course, a week day. I took a day off beforehand to practice with an instructor. But on the day of the test, as Penge wasn't that far, I just "nipped out" for the test. The bike I trained on was a Kawasaki ER5. Bugger me! I failed it! I did everything right, except as I did a left hand turn into the T intersection, which was a narrow road, a car parked in the oncoming direction pulled out from the parking space. I braked, and he braked too. Apparently, the examiner judged because the oncoming car had to stop, I was blocking his way and didn't show adeuate control of the bike to stop in time coming out of the turn into the T. I thought it was touch and go as I was quite late in the turn before he motioned out, but it was useless arguing. That was the first time in my life I had failed a test. We re-booked the test, I took a another weekend of lessons and the second time was a straight pass; no lost points. I rode back to the school with instructor behind me and intercoms switched on. The instrutor's voice came over the intercome, "OK Lance.. wait for your own boke to put on some pace" or some such words. As a newly, but filly licnesed moptorbike rider, I wanted to feel what acceleration these things really had. The ER5 is a 500CC 50hp bike, and compared to the CG125, I kept the CG125 for a little while, but would ride it on the motorway.. which was a crack. On a flat surfacec, the 11hhp with full throttle and no wind could get to about 55mph. It is uite embarressing when a fully laden tip truck rockers past you on a motorway. On a downhill, very occasionally I could get it to the speed limit of 70mph. In the end, I ended up selling it after I purchased, off eBay and uneen, a Honda VFR750. I knew all the consumables needed changing - cables, chain/sprockets, etc. I paid an appropriate price. I rode it from Brighton home to Richmond - about 50 miles I would think. It roade really well, except the chain was rattling a bit. I booked it in for a service with the bike shop in Watford, maybe a month or two after I got it. After all, it had a new MOT (Road Worthy Certificate). On the morning it was going to be serviced, I rode north up the M1 from where it starts in London. I was doing maybe 80,ph, when a stonking Merc overtook me at a great rate of knots. The testosterone injectors in the helmet kicked in and I was not having that. So, I decided to show this wanker what he was up against, and I overtook him at about 100mph, where the power band kicked in.. that was somethign I wasn't prepared for! We both ended up racing each other and hit 140mph, at which time, the testosterone hit started to wane while I remembered I had a new born daughter and I decided that was enough. I released the throttle and the bike was soon agian cruising at 80mph. I dropped the bike off at the shop (which was also a Honda dealer at the time). The commented it was a bit rough - a winter hack - but they are great bikes. At lunch time as I was walkign around Watford, I saw the mechanic test riding the bike. In the afternoon, I walked to the shop from work, and went to the service desk looking forward to a serviced bike, but not the repair bill I was expecting. When the service manager told me the bill was a £35, I was stunned. "What? I thought you were going to do a full service and replace just about every consumable there is". He explained that when the mechanic took a side panel they they noticed the frame was bent and there was one more weld than there sholuld have been. My heart sank - earlier that morning, I took a bike that should have been written off and with a weakened frame, and rode it up to 140mph! And I just had a new kid!! Onto eBay it went,. I declared everythign wrong with it, and in the end the highest bid was £50 more than I paid. So not all was lost. I decided the next bike would be a new one. so walked into the Watford bike shop on the Monday after I sold the VFR750. The Hondas were too expensive, but a slick looking Kawsaki ER6f brand new looked great, and was affordable, I thought to myself even idf they aren't as good as Hondas, it is 20 years younger than the VFR750 was, so with the engineering and technoloigy advances in that time, it surely will still be a good bike. I put the deposit down for a new bike without test riding a demonstrator, got 0% finance after negotiating the price down, and a couple of days later was riding a new, albeit boring 650CC bike.. That was 2007 and I had it for 10 years riding it in all conditions and not looking after it terribly well (as it was a boring bike to be honest). I insured it for 10k miles per year, and it did about that. But, in 2017, there was just too much wrong with it to keep it on the road. So, I sold it for parts and with other things going on (like being back into flying), riding took a pause for a while. The COVID lockdowon came and I thought I wouldn't work in London again. A motorbike was far from my mind as working out how to eek out a living in the regional cities was pressing on my mind. Of course, I ended up working in London and now commute with a car. But it is incredibly frustrating at times, because I still have to rely on public transport. That, in itself, is not bad, but, if I just miss a train into London, at that time of the morning, it is a 30 minute wait. Guess what? This week, I was running well on time for the train after my commute, only to be stopped at road works and then missing my train by a minute. A half hour wait ensued. Then when I get to Waterloo, it is a faff to get to Liverpool street and takes the same time to get three miles as it does to get from North Sheen to Waterloo on the slow (stopping all stations) train, which is about 15 miles. And last night, leaving the office, I got to Waterloo at 8:02; two minutes later than the train to my station leaves. Guess what, it is a half hour wait to the next one. But, with a bike, I can ride all the way to Liverpool Street and park for free. No waiting for trains, issues with train strikes or faulty signals/points that brings the network to its knees. And there is no congestion charge. And, if I get a young enough bike, there is no ULEZ charge either. So I decide, I have had enough and am going to take up riding again. My choice of bike is the Honda NC750X, as it offers a little more weather protection than the Honda NC750S (competely unfaired). The reason is these bikes are only 55hp, but have a lot of low down torque, rev low so are never stressed, and they have a range of upt to 80mpg. The problem is, even early ones are around £3,000+ pounds unless they have really high milesage or someone is desperate to sell. But as this is a commuter that is going to be used on motorways at all hours of the morning and night, with salt, grime, etc. I don't want to spend £3,000+ Enter the CBF1000. A much understated bike, this has a detuned 1000cc firebalde engine, so has a lot of torque and doesn't rev hard, but pumps out 97hp (new). It is a bigger bike, faired better, and is ideal for longer distance touring. Although I am commuting, the distance from my place to central London is 170 miles using the mortorways, which is what I would nornally use as they don't often get animals on them and there is sufficient motorway services to stop, revive, and survive. There are two downsides compared to the NC750s. .First, fuel consumption is not quite double the NC750s at between 45 and 50 mpg. Secondly, the NC750 doesn't seem to have anything that commonly goes wrong with them. In other words, the design is pretty sound. However, the CBF10000, especially the Mk 1 (2006 - 2010) suffers a problem where the stator burns out regulalr - about every 15k - 30k miles I think (it may be less dependent on riding style). The problem is the stator sits in the engine housing bathed in hot oil, and that it produces high current which dissipates heat into the oil. Combined with a shunt type reg/rectifier which dumops excess current to ground resulting in heating the regulator and stator, both end up burning out. The answer is to replace the regulator with a MOFSET or series regulator and to ensure the engine oil is topped up. Of course, getting an uprated stator will help, too. I guess they gave that part of the design to an intern! But the benefit of a CBF1000 over an NC750 is price. And I found a beaut for £1,500. It isn't perfect, but it is a lot better than the VFR750. A lot better! And it is comfortable, clean, and everythign works -even the stator, which was rewired a few thousand miles ago. . The bike has a little over 40,000 files. Mechanically it seems great. All of its documentation checks out. So a deposit put down and I collect on Monday, which is the start of two weeks off work for me. My partner will drive me the almost 2 hours to pick it up. I will ensure there is enough oil in the bike and then ride it home. Thankfully, the weather is forecast to be sunny, of cold: The ride home is quite good. The bike is in a nice Cotswolds village called Northleach. It is not far from Cheltenham. A wide enough road out of the village to a dual laned A road, which runs to the M5 motorway - from memory about junction 12 or 13. From there, it is the M5 south all the way to Taunton (Junction 25) and then about 15 minutes on town roads and then country lanes home. I am looking forward to it, even though I haven't ridden for quite a few years. On Tuesday, it will go for a full service and check over - just to be sure, as well as its MOT (RWC), as that expires on December 18 and once a vehicle hits three years old, a valid MOT for the vehicle is required to legally drive it on public roads. It will also have heated grips and storm guards fitted. And I may get them to fit a USB powerbank. The rest of the two weeks will be mainly DIY, but I am going to get my aviation medical in Oxford, so will probably ride there if the weather is goof enough. And then, on the morning of the 2nd of December, my first commute to London from Halse will begin at around 3:30am. That will be the test of whether or not I made the right decision.

I agree with this, and that was the sentiment of my post. However, this time, I feel, AI is different and sill substantially impact the job market negatively in a sustained way. There will be new jobs that are created - I think AI prompt engineers and trainers are one such job: https://www.simplyhired.co.uk/search?q=ai+prompt+engineering&l=london But it is the rate of redundancy versus the rate at which new jobs will be created is my concern. Looking at the table above gives no idea of the rates and the impact on the economy. One thing it doesn't take into account, also, is that the more AI advances, the more it becomes self sufficient, so even with the jobs that will show little exposure today will become under threat. For example, for Cybersecurity, there is already specialist AI that forecast new threats, both through technological and physical channels. Do we get to a point where AI can learn and research and develop predictions and detection much faster than the human? If AI displaces 20% of the workforce, that is one in 5 economic resources being idle and that wlll be a problem. My point is that AI won't displace all jobs, let alone all job types. But it will significantly reduce demand much faster than it will add it; and it will continue to do so.. Unless society is prepared to reorganise itself and rethink taxes, welfare, work-life balance, etc, it will get very ugly. Sadly, humanity these days shows a real resistance to embracing and adjusting to structural change. Humans, however, are resourceful, and as was shown in some experiment where people were given a living wage and did not have to work, they actually didn't sit in front of the telly, but they launched micro-enterprises and sought to increase income accordingly. That is OK for a small population marketing to the restof the world. I am not so sure it is sustainable for the majority or a large part of the population.

At my age, it won't take my job, but to be honest, I am at this job long enough that a redundancy, though not life changing, would be very nice. But for people in their 30s down, it will be firghtening

Yes... Apologies - too higher level skimming and not enough reading.. (Was bored in a meeting at the time). I am not sure the stock market ever reflected the wellbeing of the masses except for that short period after the war, where workers rights were better respected because the demand for labour well outstripped the supply. Note, in the graph, the red line I think shows job openings, rather than employment. Interestingly, up unitl very recently, the job openings largely tracked the S&P 500.. However, lately it climbed will it and started to fally only very recently. The graph is too small for me to see the timeline, but, assuming the last 5 or so years, I think it is a culmination of a few factors (intuitively - not through stats): COVID Hangover.. During COVID, jobs were protected, but there was a fall in new openings for many reasons. Uncertainty, uptick in automation, etc. Profits, however, thanks to online retailing and the like remained strong. But investment in automation also rose or more likely was coming to fruition. Those Amazon warehouses use a lot less people to do the same thing than warehouses previously did. Increasing fiunds available for investment push up prices of quality companies, like the top 500 on the NYSE because there is more supply of cash, but a fixed supply of top quality stocks. That could cause the S&P value to rise regardless of the underlying economy - it can become stagnant but with more demand of those stocks, prices will go up. AI adoption. About 5 years ago, companies started grappling with AI. And regardless of the myth it doesn't take jobs but lets you do yours quicker, it does take jobs: https://www.theregister.com/2025/11/06/ai_job_cuts_senate_bill/. At the moment, the economy can abosrb the job losses, and this is where economic lag comes into the picture. More and more people get laid off, but profits soar due to lowering costs as a critical mass of layoffs has yet to hit, and because when people are laid off, they still have some cash. When that critical mass hits, and the consumer cash pool starts drying up, revenues will start to drop, and then profits will, too. Stock prices will drop as, at the end of the day, all economic activity is the result of consumer spending. No comsumer spending results in no business, results in no tax, results in no spending. I can't remember if it is in the article or I read it somewhere else, but unemployment in the US has been forecast to hit 20% thanks to AI. Unlike previous tech trends that have led to wild unemployment forecasts, this one seems sustainable. I hope I am wrong, but I already use AI in my daily work that saves me a heap of time. While it may not (yet) replace me, it will probably come to a point where I won't hire people when I would have previously. So, it may not be lay offs, but simply deferred or, for want of a better term, deleted hiring. Eventually, through civil war or starvation, the S&P will normalise with the open job count, but earth will be scorched, the billionares will be on Mars and all will be fine.

In San Francisco, cars have to yield to pedestrians virtually everywhere. It is like the roads are daubed with a great big zerbra crossing everywhere. If a pedestrian wlaks to the curb to cross the road, the cars have to give way. I had no idea and about 1/2 way between intersections I decided I would cross the road.. They are wide fopotpaths (sidewalks), and the cars can see you coming and they slow right down hoping would cross before they get to you. Of course I had no idea, so by the time I gout to the kerb, the car was at a crawl. "Oh, come on! What are you waiting for? Hurry up!" I exclaimed to myself before I realised he was stopping to let me cross. I thought it was an extremely considerate, if over the top driver, but someone corrected me that it was a nw law (since the last time I visited). The other law that California has, which I like, is on certain usually mountainous windy roads, if you have moer than 5 cars behind you (and you are causign a queue), you have to legally pull over when safe and let them pass.

The most commoon ratio quoted in reference to share prices is the price/earnings (p/e) ratio, which measures the stock price against the earnings per share. There are other formulations as well, such net asset value, etc. but the accounting treatment skews such valuations and they don't take into account good will. There are different p/e ratios - thee is the forward (projected) p/e ratio, historical average p/e ratio, and current p/e ratio. Also it is important to understand a share prioce isn't valued based on its financials today, but what those financials will be in the future. That is why sometimes, for example, Citrx (a US company that has a vitual monopoly on remote working software) had massive profits over the Covid lockdowns, yet their share price fell at the same time. Historically, the average p/e ration have been around 15 - 18: 1; these days it is around 25 more or less... Valuations also depend on demand and supply. The supply of moeny to invest drives demand. As pensions and super, etc have been mandated, the amount of money to invest increases. This creates an increase in demand of quality investments - e.g. for equities (shares). This will drive the price of quality or potential future quality shares. Tesla, for example, reached a p/e of 400. In other words, it would take roughly 400 years to return each $ invested at that p/e ratio. This was driven by that other market factor - herd mentality, whgich drives bubbles such as the dot com of the 1990s, railways in the 1800s and tulips whenever that was.

Had no idea it existed

That, and money is why I am not buying a new bike. I have ridden my vfr750 in the snow. Would have bought another, but they aren't ULEZ compliant costing me £12.50 a day riding in London

That looks a little like Bells Palsy

Just treated myself to this little beastie: https://www.facebook.com/marketplace/item/25219301277695614/?referralSurface=messenger_banner&referralCode=2 Yep, it is old, but at £1,500 compared to others, it is a steal.. and is in pretty good condition. I won't pick it up until next week.. I have aleady insured it (£420 fully comp without any no claims bonus as it has been more than 3 years since I have ridden, but includes Europe wide beakdown cover and helmet/clothing insurance). I already ordered a set of Oxford Pro silcone heated grips at a knockdown price on sale. Will get some storm shields (muffs are too daggy), boots, jacket, glives, trousers next week from here: https://jsaccessories.co.uk/ As it needs its MOT by 18 December, will put it straight in for a service/MOT. The headlamps seema bit dim, so will either replace the bulbs or get LED units. The sprockets are a little on the worn side, but the chain looks OK.. .sidearm is still forward and slack looks good. The regulator/rectifier has just been replaced and the stator has been rewound (these are common problems on early CBF1000's). However, I may splurge on an uprated stator. They aren't cheap. The tryes will probably last through winter, which is good... It is a winter hack/commuter for getting me to and from London, without the hassle of waiting 1/2 hour for a train if I just miss one in the morning, and without the 30 minute on average shlep form Waterloo Street to Liverpoos street, whichever way I go, and the timetables where the connectingg service I need seems to pull out just as my service is pulling in (I am talking transport connections - minds out of the gutter, please ;-)) These are well underrated bikes and except for the stator, virtually bulletproof. The valve clearances were done about 5,000 miles ago, but I will get the mechanic to check them, anyway. I can do the rest of the stuff myself. Will have to dig out old tools and the bike stand.. Edit: It doesn't come with a top box, but I happen to have one with a plate just like it. Can't wait!

Until one sells, one can't realise the capital gain as a return. But, what residential investors have been doing in Australia for years is to profit from that + negative gearing. It goes something like this. Buy a run down hovel at next to nothing. Refurb it as cheaply as possible to increase the value of the property. Have the bank value the property, which goes up - often by multiples of 10%. The loan to value ratio decreases. So, say you bought a house for $400K (I know, an impossibiolity in the cities in Australia anymore). Say you borrowed $300K to buy it. You renovate it for $15K and it takes the value to $500K. Where you had a 75% loan to value, you now have a 60% loan to value. You use the additional value as collateral on the next loan. Some banks will proxy this as a deposit on the next house, because they will poolk the houses as collateral under the one loan, and increase that one loan. Therefore, you don't need a new deposit because the icreased value of the first home means allows you to increase your borrowing as your collateral has increased. So, you buy a second home to tip in as collateral on your first loan, and because that house has value, it increases the collateral, which allows you to borrow the cost of buying that second house without having to put in more money yourself (maybe except for legals/converyancing and stamp duty). You refurb that house, and so the cycle goes on. Sadly, I was financially illeterate, like most of us are, for a very long time. By the time, I learned about what was possible, it was too late - at least for the Aussie market, which is a perfect residential investment market - for investors. Over here, the dynamics are totally different and it doesn't pay at all unless you incorporate and make it your full time occupation. Unless you want to get ionto a certain segment which should have been outlawed decades ago. You may be paying back more than the rent pays, in which case you can offset that against your income as negative gearing. Done properly, you don't have to pay any tax on your normal income. Which frees up money to put into the legals and stamp duty of the next property. Rinse, and repeat. @onetrack is correct - with property, it is both income and capital gains that should be taken into account. However, our tax standards don't require it.

Sorry OME.. I tried to break it down in terms of derivatives. There is a lot to go through to make sense, I suppose. I just don't have the time to write up the real basics, but there is plenty online. If you have the inclination to spend the time, you can do the foundation level of the chartered financial analyst course here: You can skip the quantitative methods and go straight to issuers. It will give you good insight to the markets and basic instruments. Here is his level II stuff: And here is a level II course (the above fella doesn't seem to have one) Note, this is not a trading course. but from a buy side, or asset manager perspective. There doesn't seem too be free video courses of Chartered Institute of Securities and Investments.. which has a trading component.

A derivative is a financial instrument that derives its value from an underlying financial instrument. The most commonly known one is an option - the right - but not the obligation - to buy or sell a financial instrument at some future time for an agreed (strike) price. Depending on whether the option is on the buy or sell side, it will rise and fall with the underlying instrument - typically shares for retail investors. What your describing could be a derivative, but is more likely the credit multiplier effect which exists in any economy that facilitates lending. What is happening is collateral, in the form of future promised cash flows, is being put up as collateral for borrowing money. This is a form of leveraged finance and has leverage risk. It can be a derivative (such as a repurchase agreement, commonly known as a repo), or it could be a bog standard loan sold off in the loan markets. Or it could be an asset backed security (ABS), which package loans into an asset pool and sell cash bonds off the back of them. They are not technically derivatives, but collateralised loans. Although the structures are different, they are all forms of financing lending. A repo, is considered a securities financing transaction as it offers up a financial security (e.g. bond, share, exchange traded commodity derivative) and receives money in return; at the end of the agreement, the security is returned to the borrower, and the cash is returned to the lender. Different structures have different rules and problems associated with them. ABS is the riskiest to the economy, however, Lehmans failed by gaming the repo market in what was called repo105. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Repo_105). It used short dated repo agreements to get risky assets off its balance sheet and have case in the bank at reporting times.. was the gist of it, anyway. But that was a fraud as opposed to market operation. The value of USD $610tn in OTC derivatves was a couple of years ago from memory. This oft quoted value, whilst true, is the notional value of the market which bears little semblance to the amount of the actual value of the market, which as I recall was arounf $20tn. And that is because almost all derivatives are a future swap of cash flows based on some financial measure. For example, an FX forward is where two counterparties agree to swap foreign currency at some pre-agreed exchange rate, sometime in the future. For example, I may enter into a forward rate fx contract with you, where I give you $100,000 AUD, at .63 USD. On that future daye, I will give you $100,000USD and you will give me $63,000 USD. The notional in USD is $63,000, but that is not the value of the trade. The reason is that is not the value of the trade is because if I default on the $100,000, you don't give me anything. You keep your $63,000 and have lost nothing. Well, sort of.. We measue the loss in what is called xva and credit risk, as well as the difference in the spot price and the forward price. If the AUD was up a a lot, say it went to .68, that would mean you could have converted yout $100,000 received from me into $68,000 USD; you have lost $5,000 on my default. Of course, it the AUD went down, you are ahead of th curve because it means you don't have to worry about taking less from my $100K then you gave me. The true value of the derivative is calculateed daily with discounted net present valuation calculations well into the future. Some derivatives can go on for 50 or so years.. But we tend to value them on 1 day, 3 day, 5 day, 7 day/2week, month, 3 month, 6 moonth, 12 month, 3 year, 5 year, 7 year, 5 year and 30 year basis - depending on how long they have to run. The maths is complex, and I don't pretend to uinderstand 1/10th of it. The chaining of loans as collateral is an oversimplification of the issue, especially in the credit multiplier sense. Yes, bonds can be reused as collateral. But, a) they have haircuts to their value applied; b) wrong way risk further recudes the value we can take, and c) there is usually some economic value/output added along each link. And, at least in Europe, there are tight controls on this and big fines for not complying (reporting is mandatory). So far, these seem to have acted as a strong deterrent.. I know from experience how seriously we take compliance and only a buy side firm, Aviva has had a breach worth fining - and that was for the breach of reporting rather than collateral reuse (we self-declare breaches of reporting and fix them very quickly).

I think Australia fits that bill somewhat

They all have a loo in 'em I am a bit buggered today. Problem with long office hours and age is the old body ain't (sooory @old man emu about the Amahericaaamism) what it used to be. and I have used muscles a) I haven't used for years; and b) didn't realise I still had. The skip is alomst full.. One pile is gone to the chagrin of worms and spiders, though the robins loved the pile going. The big pile of trash (sorry again, OME) is about 1/2 way done. I will fill the skip tomorrow - and yes, if there was more than one person, we may have got a little more in than I have.. though there isn't too much air in the skip). Tomorrow morning, walk the dog for his weekly 6 miler; finish filling the skip, then off to Cheltenham to look at a Honda CBF1000 which is on for next to nix to replace the car for the commute to London (which will mean no more missing the trains and waiting 1/2 hour). Yeah, I know the stator is an issue with them, but I have a cunning plan to make it last a little longer. Proper servicing! Photos on Monday (your time) to show the difference. Oh forgot.. need to do the gutters, too.. F! that is a pain of a job.. 11 or so metres of carbon fibre tubing to suck the leaves from the gutters and blast the downpipes.. I think my next house will be in Cooper Pedy... no gutters to clean!

Thanks, @red750 Let me assure you, it was a momentarily lapse 😉 Not too much aluminum in that pile, thankfully.

The sad fact is, investors will pay for people who make them money. And the more money they make the investors, the more the will pay the people that make them the money. The only exception are those that will preserve their life a bit more. And, capitalism's major flaw is that there is no such thing as a perfect - or fully competitive market. Left to its down devices, the market will become skewed to those who own more assets than others. So, if you control some of the larger amoutns skewed amount of resources, you will pay big for those who preserve and increase it more than would otherwise happen. Why do you think lawyers and accountants are some of the best paid professionals in the western world? The other sad fact about life is most of will work for money, regardless of what that industry does. Why do I work in banking? Not that I have a love for finance and financial services; it pays a hell of a lot more for much the same cerebral work as I was doing in power station. Banking is full of really clever people (sometimes I am genuinely embarressed interviewing some people given what they have achieved outside banking). And we get them doing very mundane things. And they do it because we pay them 100% plus miore than they get doing what they love. Banking can do this because they have traditionally been money making machines. When I joined banking from nuclear, I was excited because it was so hard to get into as an experienced candidate, but not experienced in banking. I thought the technoloigy and methodology must be out of this world. The reality was they were so very far behind at the time, because if there were porblems, they could just chuck more money and people at it, and preserve the chaos rather than take the cerebral time to think about the most optimal way of doing things. The reason - imagine you're a fast moving consumer goods company where volumes are high and margins are low; or a power generator where it is much the same thing (except for their trading arms, of course). Every penny you can add to the bottom line is massive as they work on net margins often less than 10%. When I entered banking, their net risk adjusted margins (i.e. taking a charge to cover risks that may or may not materialise) was over 60%! No incentive to be really innovative. Since the crash, things have changed. Actually, as banking now realises how climate change is affecting the world, and more importantly, the risk posed to its business model, I am now beginning to feel some pride in working in banking - or at aleast who I am working for - as we are starting to aggressively move away from some of our exposures to high polluting and high-emitting industries and fund climate and earth improving industries.

Actually, it is atypical of major politicians from the major parties; it is typical of the ones who make the news, and sadly for a a few that reach the top. There is no popular interest in those that work tirelessly with high ethics and morals - people don't get excited by that; so there's not much news on it - if any. We all like to complain about something and the press to their darndest to feed our wants. I don't see too many ALP high flyers (at least in federal politics) embroiled in contraversy... Much to my surprise, Albo seems to be doing a good job of balancing the needs of the coutnry against powerful corporate and foreign political interests... with ethics and morality. And he is the top pollie in the coutnry.

Well, I didn't get as much done last weekend as I hoped as my back was out before I even started, but here are some photos: 12 yard skip - biggest you can get. Got a bit of junk in. Heap of junk to go.. Hidden under it is a bunch of rubble Another junk pile to go. Will probably need a second skip :-( Gotta fill the skip this weekend!

I'm a tiny teapot short and stout

ohm my! this is degenerating

That joke is polarising.... 😉

You'd be surprised at how many "normal" people support Chump. There s a fella in our office who largely is left leaning, but is an ardent supported of Chump and believes the conspiracy theories that the world is just against him for no good reason. Of course, he is just one person, and it shocked me he would wholeheartedly support Chump... But if he would.. you can bet your bottom dollar there are a lot out there who would. Hanson is pandering to those who support her or maybe on the fence...