Jerry_Atrick

Once Howard started running down the reserves, neither party has grabbed the problem and fixed it.

A cynic may say this is going to script - albeit a bit slower and with a bit more resistance. US takes control of the largest oil reserves in the world - Venezuela; one that supplies a lot to China at favourable terms to the Chinese. Who else sells oil cheap to China? Russia and Iran; both because of embargoes and sanctions. China is a key economic competitor to the USA.. and is able to do so with the help of cheap oil. And, although it is weaning itself off oil, it is still the second largest consumer of oil at 16.4 million barrells a day according to Google AI. Notice how even the rest of the world has unoffically cooled from embargoes and sanctions of Russian oil? Yes, Russia will continue to sell China its oil, but as there is now more demand for it, the price will rise. China will have to pay more. That will cause a rise of input costs to Chinese industry and inflation at home. Not a great outcome, for China, but it will put the brakes on its economy and level up the playing field in global trade. According to Google AI, China has about 28bn barrells of oil in proven domestic reserves. That would give it around 1,800 days of oil at current consumption if it exhausted its current proven reserves. Of course, there will be more, but it will want to keep as much as possible for national security. Israel is increasingly looking like a side show in this - a distraction from what is the real intention. Anyway, they are now off in Lebanon, apparently targeting Hezbollah. Interesting how they are not involved in the peace talks with Iran nor featuring in any news with respect to at least tabling with the US what would be necessary for peace with Iran. As, Roosevelt said, "In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way." Sincerely, Cynic and Conspiracy Theorist

I was out of Australia when he was PM, thankfully. Although a mate of mine back in Australia was spitting chips over his performance. I asked who he voted for.. Was the Libs.. He knew what Abbott and his motley crew were like, yet he still voted for them. I told him he couldn't complain - he got exactly what he voted for. Apparently, the press for Labor was worse and Rudd probably didn't do himeself any favours, either.

As I said in my post, you will find some examples that buck the trend - or the exceptions. But even in that vid, the current PV solar panels are an Aussie invention, which to paraphrase the fella in the vid, was given away to the rest of the world. We are inventive, but need to get entrepreneurial. The company in the above vid are, at the end of the day a niche provider - that could engage similar markets such as the Middle Eash, and African climates as the longevity is their uniue selling point. But form the vid, their focus seems solely Australia.

Me neither. but the first movers in highe tech industries often get an advantage and retain it. Nethlerlands still leads windill manufacture even though China is in on the act. Tesla still retains a decent share of the market in the wake of massive Chinese investment and number of entrants to the market. Despite Europe and Japan this time being the laggard, they too are able to have an EV market that, thanks to Chump, s growing. Australia seems to sell its IP off and not willing to invest for the long term gains. China produces things cheaper - US and European manufacturers set up there and own the IP and the profits, at least. Even the vid says the good profressor was about dissemination of information - i.e. give away the IP? One of the reasons was there was little reception outside of advanced scientific (e.g satellite) use. We just don't embrace the future that well. A lot of people fall into the "Ok, renewables" or whatever the technology is expensive to deploy. When has capital intensive industries been cheap to deploy?: But these developments often displace the industry that was cheap to run... we never seem to learn the lesson. Returns are based on innovation investment, not operational costs. That is what I meant by another lost opportunity - we develop the future, but we don't embrace it and capitalise on it - systemically (yes, there are a few examples where we buck the trend). I see it being the same in the UK.. And now, oddly, which Chump making America grate again, his desire to roll back the ages is putting the US farther back, quicker than it has been going.

Sadly, it looks like yet another commerical opportunity missed by Australia, but at least we are starting to realise the benefits, even in the face of stiff propaganda provided courtesy of the fossil fuel industry through both social and mainstream media, soaked up by a largely but decreasingly gullible public

@Grumpy Old Nasho - you really need to stay away from TV.. It is mainly American fed BS that doesn't even apply in their legal systems. War crimes are covered under the Crimes Act (Commonwwealth), making it a federal office; not a state offence. It is an indictable (serious) offence. However, there is no federal criminal court, the court of the first instance will be the supreme court of whichever state he is in, which is NSW. Under NSW law, all indictable offences require a trial by jury, except where, in the court's opinion, there is so much publicity that would impact almost anyone from being unbiased and potentially predisposed to a guilty verdict. But, this does not apply to federal offences thanks to s.80 (I think) of the Aussie constitrution, that requires all commonwealth (fedral) indictable offences to be tried by jury. The Bondi gunmen are also to be tried in the NSW Supreme Court in the first instance. In both cased, the defence may (and will likely) petition the court that a trial by jury would be prejudicial to the defence. If both succeed, then the outcome will be different for both defendants. Roberts-Smith will walk free. As the court will deem he cannot be granted a fair trial by jury, and the Aussie constitution requires those charged with a federal indictable offence are tied by jury, the court has no choice. It's as simple as that. Of course, the prosecution will appeal it, but if the decision is upheld, Robert Smith is a free man. In the case of the Bondi Gunman, there are 59 offences including murder, attempted murder, terrorism, firearms, etc. For the NSW state offences (murder, attempted murder , some of the firearms offences, some of the terrorism offences), he will still be tried - but by a judge only or a number of judges. He does not automatically walk free. If the defence do not agree, he will still be tried by jury. Unlike Roberts-Smith, he has no "get out of jail" card, if you will excuse the pun. But there's more.. the procedure is slightly different, especially where the judge has to give reasons for finding of fact (where a jury doesn't), It is hard to quantify, but because it holds the judge to a higher level of scrutiny, is is argued tha ut us harder to get a convuiction because they judge requires more to eliminate reasonable doubt (standard of proof the prosecution must provide) and less to introduce doubt on the balance of probabilities (standard of proof required by the defence). Every new editor (TV, magazine, radio, etc) in the country knows this. So, your theory that all the hype with Roberts Smith and the relatively low coverage of the Bondi Gunman is to lynch Roberts-Smith is so far from reality, it beggars belief. It is in Roberts-Smith best interests that there is as much bombastic coverage showing him as guilty as possible. With every press story that can predispose people to an opinion, the defence case stengthens that he can walk away a free man. Similarly for the Bondi Gunman, as if the defence will have less to do to introduce reasonable doubt (not that that will happen) or intorduce a defence (e.g. mental impairment - still slim but probably he only one he has got form what I saw as provication has to be proximate). By the press not covering it obsessively, they are prroviding less than they could to the defence to give them their best short at walking away. But, if you want to reverse the situation and have all the coverage on the Bondi person and none or less on Roberts-Smith, then you are virtually guaranteeing he will be tried, and possibly allowing enough of a sliver of hope the Bonid gunman can rely of some defence (though I doubt it, because criminal mental impariment is a much narrower definition than clincial definitions).

Winding path (to the find the missing letters, above)

This is the first time I have tried an AFR artivle for eons and I am sure my IP address has changed since I last accessed as I recently changed ISP. My guess is they allowed free use for a short period.

A prodigee of Abbott? Be careful what you ask for.

Indeed.. It looks like the "other alliance" is a bit stronger than ours: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-supplies-iran-with-cyber-support-spy-imagery-hone-attacks-ukraine-says-2026-04-07/ That't thank thanks Chump gets from Putin.. Of course, Chump won't see it that way.

The original article I saw was either on the ABC or The Age website (when I go tot he Guardian, it usually only feeds me British based or, for global news, what it considers important or interesting for Brits. There was no mention of CGT for the primary residence, but there was mention on negative grearing being removed from all but a private investor's first investment property; It must have been The Age, as I doubt very much the ABC wouls pull an article for a reason other than it iwas plainly inaccurate. But here is what I found from teh ABC: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02-04/capital-gains-tax-changes-among-options-as-labor-weighs-housing/106306738 And it only mentions CGT discountsd being removed from investment properties. Which, IMHO, is the correct thing to do. Inherited properties that are then used by the beneficiaries to rent out (i.e. become an investment propety) should be required to have a surveyor's valuation at the commencement of them being advertised for rent so that the CGT clock starts tickign with an accurate assesment.. Or maybe ion this case, because of the emotional ties, maybe wait 12 - 24 months and if they sell in that period, then it is CGT free; after that the valuation has to be obtained and CGT has to be paid on a subsequent sale. Of course, this creates a perverse outcome on an intergenerational basis. Keep the original home in the family and pass it on to subsequent generations = no tax. Convert it to cash to invest in some other form of asset/wealth building investment, and you pat tax, and have less to invest and pass on. Would have to look into the stats of how many homes are passed onto multiple generations to work out the real impact. Be that as it may, it would be incredibly uunfair to CGT the primary property anyway. Not because of the fact it was already paid for by post tax dollars and insn;t an investment per se, but a place to live; but also, the deduction being inflation rate is not representative of the true inflation rate of a house. Unless you are moving into a care home of some sort, you are likely to be purchasing another property to live in. As house price inflation often skyrockets past the normal inflation rate and the price increase of houses is excluded from the inflation calculation, if you sold your house and had to pay CGT on it, you could not afford at least a similar standard of house - you would be going backward. And this would probably stall the housing market (except for those thast had to sell) and foprce prices up even further - no supply but a demand still will tend to do that. Labor, or Albo is not stupid.

Once again you sling mud with no substance and show your bias against Israel,.. IHaven't heard you reliably debunk much, if anything with fact Who's biased? Pot calling kettle, etc etc

I see FIFA haven't stripped him of their inaugural peace prize. I wonder who gets their second one?

I may be thick, but I genuinely don't get what you are saying. How does all humans being equal equate to being pro-Palestinian? Believing they are unfairly treated by the Israelis is one thing (whether that is true or not - I can no longer be arsed getting into that argument), but being pro-Palestinian because all humans are equal sort of ignores the horrible inequities in Palestinian controlled areas (Gaza and Ramallah) - as well as other Arabic or Islamic nations - I dunno, like Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi, Iran, Afghaistan, many ogf the other 'Stans, and the like. Unless killing gays because they are gay, or beating your wife legally and even being instructed on how to do it, legal honour killings, discrtimination against far east labourers, slavery, etc is treating everyone equally. You know - like in Israel whihc has the largest - because the only gay pride; where foreign workers are treated the same as local, where Palestinian citrizes have the same rights and one was even the previous deputy PM, and there have been Palesitnian cheif jidges of the Israeli high court. Where women are eqqual and marital rape, wife beating, etc is against the law. Where even a soldier will be held to account for killing a Palestinian terrorst after they have injured aoir killed other Israeli soldiers. Where before 7 October, Israel provided necessary medical care to Gazans and Ramallans despite there being lots of hospitals in those two areas - some hopefully withoput weapons cahces under them. Where Israel provided Gazan with the water supply (and still do) despite Hamas firing rockets at them almost daily. Where many Gazans used to work in Israel with the same rights and conditions as Israelis and could move about freely (they were justifiably searched oin their way into Israel because of the risk of them wearing bombs). Hang on.. Where is their vocal opposition to Russia that does commit war crimes on a daily basis, targetting civilian infrastructure? Where is their vocal oppostiion to the many wars and conflicts in the middle east that don't involve Israel? I can't recall much more than a scant reference to Iran, and even then it was more about the illegal Chump/Net war and not the 30,00+ civilians killed (although this could be because the newspapers and the ABC don;'t gibve them much coverage). Then, yeah. good on the Greens for sticking with their morals. Give them a clap. They're just being perfect and it's not anti-semitism at all. Shame though, because most of heir policies, if implemented properly, seem pretty good. Would I vote for them despite the above? Actually, probably, because thankfully in the incredibly unlikely event they got in, they cold probably block exports and imports to/from Israel. I don't think wither country would lose sleep over it. Given it is unlikely they would get in, the additional primnarly vote would hopefully send a message to the majors to lift their game in the other areas.

I don't agree with everything you have written, but the sentiment is spot on, IMHO.

One of the big tax perks that is gaining a lot of attention lately is the directors loans. The more you make and the more you borrow, the more you save in tax. In many jurisdictions there is (or was) a threshold for converting directors loans to dividends. It typically was about the same as the zero tax rate. For the rest, you set up a commercial rate between the director and the holding company; the loan will cover the repayment agreement, which can be very minimal. As you receive this money as a loan, there is no tax payable. The tiny repaymnent terms, just enough to be considered a legal contract, mean that the interest earned by the company and tax paid is minimal or the income from interest is offset by the admin costs. When you finally die, you have no assets in your name to repay the loan, your estate is bankrupt (your ownership of the coompany is returned to the company and distributed to the remaining shareholders, usually your family. Voilla! Virtually no tax paid. Blind or secret trusts are another good way as they often benefit from tax deductions not available to private people and you can't tell who is the beneficiary to loob tax against when they exit the trust (either through death or some other form). Apart from some family trusts, which now attract dfifferent tax treatment, the UK has effectively limited the life of any trust to 80 years, after which the lessor of capital gains, probate taxes, stamp duties, etc must be paid.

It's a bright future he have. This came from a weekly AI newsletter I get: npm is a package manager for javascrip and used to deploy most web apps.

The couldn't pronounce him guilty at a press conference - unless they want the trial and the charges to be dropped from subjudice. I was merely taking on the position of a civil law case, and on one of the alleged murders, at time was an unarmed and restrained person. As I mentioned, I don't know muc about military law, and the conjecture was based on civilian law. However, surely, a PoW has a right not ro be murdered. For that one case I mentioned, it does not seem in dispute - at least in the court of public opinion - that the victim was partially bound (hands/wrists) and gagged, and unarmed. At that stage, is he a PoW - I would imagine it to be dependent on the circumstances - and that it does not need someone to be physically locked up. I'll read the pdf later and get back.

I haven't seen what you refer to, but if it is so, then you are right . The problem is today, there is a lot about virtue signalling without allowing the process to take place to make a determination. Until, that something makes their virtueness look a biut ugly,. then it is dennial followed by wiait for due process.

Either way, he would have been excused from service - too dangerous to his own men. .Can't shut up which is not good on a patrol, I imagine.

How on earth then, did you get your flight radioo operators licence? Did they only have morse code in those days? 🙂 (double "o" intended on radio for Scottish accent effect)

I agree, Nev. I haven't served, but have worked closely with active serving personnel, some of whom were in the elite force of their country. I would always defer to someone who has served for a more considered opinion, but my observation was that the special forces personnel were selected and traing based on their mental toughness and fortitude. A lot of the physical training is about building the mental toughness. This no doubt has an impact, but one thing it does mean is that they are more likely to see somethng through then your average soldier. And when they choose to operate outside SoP and commands, it is more likely because they intended it. Whether that intention is pure evil or the result of what they have experienced and some form of PTSD or other mental impairment should, rightly so, be determined by a court of law - Is this going through the civil or military courts? This is the same of anyone charged with murder; it is not the police job to pass judgement; it is the prosecutor to determine if on the evidence there may be a good case to answer; and then on the judge/jury or military panel (apols if that is no longer the case - I don't really know too much about military law). If it is a civil trial, they will have to establish which state it comes under (most likely territory - and therefore federal criminal law). Regardless, they will have to prove two elements beyond reasonable doubt - actus reus - guitly act - and that it was he who caused the death with no intervening factors; and then b) mens rea - guilty mind (in Aus, they now call it the fault element). They will have to prove, subjectively, i.e. that in Robert's -Smith own mind rather than what a reasonable person would think, that he intended to kill (or commit grevous bodily harm) or was criminally reckless (not negligent) to whether or not the deaths would occur form his actions. Both have to be proved beyone reasonable doubt. Then there could be defences, of which mental impariment is one. Interestingly, the defences only have to be proven to a balance of probability - more likely than not - that the conditions for the defence occured. I would imagine it would be a similar apprach in military law. What is widely reported is that he had an unarmed civilians with arms tied behind his back, and if I recall correctly, blindfolded, stand at a ledge of a ricky outcrop, in which Roberts-Smith intentionally kicked the person over thee outcrop. Assuming it to be accurate in that case, the actus reus is definitely there, and the facts would storngly suggest the reuisite intention ir criminal recklessness. That would then open the defences. Extreme provocation is a partial defence these days; so the provocation of comrades being killed previously in an ambush (the previous day) may come into it, but probably not as the law was changed to virtually immediate provocation - so an immediate reaction to provcation. Anything else is a cold blooded intention. There are a couple of other defences but from memory none would really apply. He would have to show on the balance of probability that he had some form of mental impairment and PTSD is one that the court will accept. He only needs to show it was likely rather than definite. So, there is a lot to play out here. And he, like everyone else deserves a fair trial. It is high time it came.. If he is found to have suffered mental impairment, the court will order an assessment and potentially lodgings at a suitable HMAS instituton. The assessment may determine he is no longer suffering or if so, he does not need lodgings as long as he submts to and maintains prescribed treatment.

It's the accent... 😉

Looks like the Labor government are finally considering reforming the residential rental market taxes around CGT and Negative Gearing: https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/property-shift-flagged-for-aussie-investors-as-interest-rates-rise-and-tax-changes-loom-060042724.html (I can;t find the original article I found - that will have to do). This, to me, is a positive step. Of course, if you are a big private investor in residential property, then you will probably disagree. But, it tries to strike the right balance between using housing for housing (preferably affordably), and enough incentive for investing in residential property to keep rentals going. But the aim should be to get people into their own houses. Yes, in some countries in Europe, rentals are the norm, but these are markets with very different structures to Australia, and there is usually some rental price controls in place. For example, in the UK, there are some mansions in Notting Hill and Holand Park under rent control - ironically where the renters can pass their rights in succession - i.e. it transdfers to theur surviving family or benefciaries. These are literally renting for less than a thousand pounds a year, and the owners are stuck with them as they can't evict the tenants except for breach of lease. In Europe, similar conditions exist, but they are a little more favourable to the investor. In Australia, we don't have such controls. Imposing these will probably implode the residentiial rental market. Also, we have space. As an investment market, resdidential dwellings is horribly inefficient at allocating capital as the demand will be there regardless of whether an investor buys a poperty of a live-in owner. One downside is that it could lead to house price deflation over the longer term, so if you are borrowing with a very high loan to value ratio, your home is likely to not be in the black for some time; and if you want to sell with a higher mortgage, you may find the sale price may not be enough to cover the balance of the mortage. Of course, the poliy is designed to minimise th eimpact, but it is a possibility. The conservatives here were a bit more brutal, and it dfid cause negative equity for a lot of people for a while.