Jerry_Atrick

I hope you're not finnished! 😉

However, my early thoughts are: Blues v Cats.. Both are coming off a bye and both don't like winning off the bye. Unless the team line ups come out showing a marked degradation of playing ability for the Blues, I am going for the Blues @ $1.61 (my UK account doesn't post odds until the Wednesday).Will depend on Harry McKay and Mitch McGovern as well as Port Adeliade and Lions: With Port adeliade suffering a loss to GWS today, and needing to win to stay iin the top 8, despite the Lions on a comeback roll, it is too close to call for me to drop money on. I would be going for Port Adelaide on this one, but their form of late has been erractic at best. If I were to bet on it, at $1.82, it would be speculative and would not throw more than a tenner on it. The local derby sees GWS host Sydney. Sydney is the comp's clear in-form side and GWS, despite beating Port at home today (yesterday by the time you read this), are no match for Sydney. If the odds stay more or less where they are (my odds are usually slightly worse than those in Aus), It will be about £75 on that game - which would be the highest I have bet at once, so sure am I that Sydney will win. GWS' injury list is long, and most of those on the Sydney injury list have being playing the twos anyway. Melboure will account for North, and at $1.15, it is lower than my threshold return, but may drop £30 on it. However, North has shown some real improvement lately, taking Collingwood to a point yesterday, in a high-scoring affair. So, thinking about it, with a low return from Melbourne, and a resurgent North Melbourne, I think I will sit this out, or put £5 on North as the speculative, not that I think they will win. Freemantle v Gold Coast @ Perth: Well, this should be Freemantle depending on injuries. Suns don't travel well and have shown they are improving under Dimma Hardwick as coach, but they are a long way off. Freemantle, I learned this weekend, also don't travel well, but at home seem to be pretty consistent (although list their last home game if memory serves me well.. but I think that was against Sydney). I think they just scrape into my probability of winning threshold, so, @ $1.45 or thereabouts are worth a punt for say, £30-ish.. I can't see any upset on the favourties this round. No doubt there will be one, but it would be a freak of football rather than a belief they have a good chance at it. Maybe North will do it. Now, I wouldn't say I will be on any or all of the above, but my modelling tells me if I did put the bets on I am thinking of at the moment (Blues £50, Port Adelaide £10, Sydney, £75, North £5, Freemantle £30) and I lost it all, I would be down to £82, which mneans I would adjust my figiures to keep it at or above £100. If I won it all, it would be up to £358 (assuming 5 cents worse odds per bet. The reality is I am at about 75% win; 25% loss. On the above, if Sydney lose, as GWS are probably the most likely to cause an upset and everyone else won except North, I would be c. £5 down on this week. Note, I may not bet on any oif the above, nor the amounts I have stated. But they are my thoughts at this point. I also look at the forecast; A rainy and windy day can change the probabilities significantly. You may ask how much time do I spend on research, etc.? It is less than I spent writing this up, because I have a natural interest in the game and follow it anyway, and would regardless. I probably put in an extra half hour a week.. But if IU spent more than 4 or so hours a week following it. I think its important not to overthink it and also vitally important not to follow the so-called "experts". For example, because it was Dusty Martin's (Riichmond) 300th game, most predicted Richmond would rise to the occasion and beat Hawthorn. The game was emotionally charged with 92,000 supporters attending - an the vast majority being Richmond supporters. He opened Richmond's and the games account with a superb kick from about 50 metres.. Arguably the best player ihe game has seen.. Yet, I stuck with the Hawks - not because they are my team, but they are a better side and would rise to the occasion. In the end, it was a 48 point (8 goal) victory to the Hawks. I have also bet against them when I know they are really likely to lose and the odds allow it. Also remember, I have discovered in-play betting, so if I happen to be watchng a game that I bet on, and the in-play odds move in the way I want them to, I will place a small bet and see what happens. It once turned £10 into £70, so you can't rely on just my pre-round bets. Note, I don't make it a habit of watching games I bet on unless Hawthorn are playing or I have some free time. This weekend, I haven't watched one, but could have turned around a loss going for Freemantle and placing an in-play hedge on the Western Bulldogs as they trailed for most of the game, and by quite a margin for a while. I am happy to post my bets... At this stage for the next round, it would definitely be Sydney and Carlton.. The quantum and other teams are to be deciided. But will let you know as I post them. [Edit]. I am now going to watch the Hawks game.

I will post if you want.. though usually make my mind up on the day before or the day itself

OK, like it or not, it's that time of week again... From my now 3 week ago high of £200 return on my original £50 kitty. I took at £70 hit and then a marginal gain to be @ £200 even last week. Well, I went almost strictly back to my system despite it still being part of the bye rounds (hopefully next week is the last of them) and I am able to say I am back to where I was three weeks ago (slightly north, actually): My deviation from my system this week was a small bet (£10) on who I thought was likely to win, but not above my 90% sure threshold; so had I not taken the bet, I did not try and hedge this time, the end result was I am £10 less than if I had not taken the best. Also, unless I hit a losing streak, I have not dipped below a £100 balance in my betting, so at the moment, I will likely finish with a 100% return at the end of season. Not bad for a few months work. I have also learned, the concept of illisionary superiority is still alive and well. How I think I can beat the system when millions of others try it, I am not sure. I guess I rely on them betting with their emotions.

Thanks, Peter

(BTW, I agree, Labor, or more accurately, Albanese politically slit his own throat - but not be this false accusation of splitting the country - but by allowing the bigoted and greedy in this society to seize the agenda and spouting their Kool=Aid, which seems to have been lapped up by most).

Farage will no doubt take voters away from teh Conservatives. In fact, one (and only one so far) puts Reform two percentage points ahead of the Conservatives https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/reform-uk-overtakes-pm-sunaks-conservatives-opinion-poll-2024-06-13/ However, BoJo won what the call the "Red Wall", which is a bunch of Labour stronghold seats in the North of the country, and typically the most depraved. These were amongst the highest concentration of Brexit voters in the country, and they will swallow the Kool-Aid and the bottle with it for good measure. It is here that I think, when it comes to putting pen onto paper, that Reform will do not too badly, and Labour has to win many of these seats to get into power. What will possibily save Labour is the electoral system is "first pas the post", which if 50%+1 vote is where the post is, is a misnomer. The winner of a seat is the candidate that polls the most votes (tick/cross in teh box).. Often they are won with less than 35% of the vote. This may save Labour because Reform may see big gains in these seats, but maybe not enough. If it were preferential or proportional voting, it may be a different story, to be honest. All the major parties have released their mainfestos., The Conservatives was largely derided as nonsense; the Lib Dems as aspirational; Reform Party's "Right of Centre" manifesto has been labelled as, "extemely right of centre" (note the clever play on wards where he does not say how far right of centre), so you can guess whats in it. Incedibly, a Conservative leaning radio presented last night labelled the Labour manifesto as uninspiring, not innovative, bland, etc.. he was really deriding ot for its lack of ground breaking policy, and then went on to say how it was clearly the best manifesto amingst the lot of them for putting the country on track. For someone who has publicly stated he would never vote Labour, he was basically saying, of the lot, you're (as in the UK public) are much better off with Labour's polices, so you may was well vote for them.

Here's my random thoughtts.. 1. Whereis Onetrack? Is he still moving out of his warehouse? 2. Has anyone heard of or from @Old Koreelah latelly (been meaning to post this question for a while)?

Behind a paywall, so you know the drill re javascript blocking... https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/a-920-page-plan-lays-out-a-second-trump-presidency-nadine-has-read-it-and-is-terrified-20240614-p5jlqc.html

Of course, there will be people (hopefully) who mourn our passing. I was referring to innocent bystanders who shouldn't be traumatised from seeing a random stranger crashing and dying in front of them. But, somehow, I think you knoew that...

And when the Libs are in, dp they run the state, or the country? Or who's interests are served? The last Lib federal government ended up where electorally? Lost blue ribbon seats they governed for the people so well..

It isn't the only source.. closest on the phone (in London at the moment).. But, correct.. until validated, it is only a "may"

I have to admit I have only seen this story here and know nothing about it.. But, I am guessing 14 days is aimed at people who don't travel much.. if he had no reasonable way to get the firearm returned without significant disruption to his schedule, given it is many hundreds of miles away and can't be used by him, I would not be against an order to return it within three days of arriving back in Florida to account for arriving late on a Friday eve of a public holiday. I would also expect the same to apply to any other felon.. although have to take into account their (and his) mental state and likelihood of using it egregiously. Sometimes you have to look beyond the literal interpretation to the purpose.. Courts do that all the time

If I know the end is near, I'd like to go the same way.. but without anyone watching as I don't want to cause others trauma

The housing (for purchase) shortage in Vic may be tempering thanks to land tax:

When he was informed he received the knighthood, he genuinely expressed both no idea what it was and its unimportance to him

@Marty_d, your response is my point.. Almost all socio/psychopaths (aka pollies) hold out to be something they aren't and the gullible buy it. It plays to their prejudices.. Which is why I think it is deeper than populism. It is a deep-ingrained hatred.

Wanna fix the housing crisis? Get ris of negative gearing.. period. Worked here.

I am probably a bit more lefty than most here.. maybe the exception of Marty. I am definitely "woke".. But, I have to admit, I cannot understand the hatred of Jews through the years.. maybe because I was brought up in a household that. apart from the commercialisation of Christmas Day and Easter, was largely brought up in an atheist - or at least non-believing family. It wasn't until I was engaged to a Catholic that IO even knew why Fridays were bog for Fish 'n Chips and hadn't set foot in a chuch.. or even the significance of pancakes. And why there is a lot of cheap wine. One thing I could not understand as a kid, was why Jews were so hated. I had 6 schools in 12 years.. and in each school at different parts of Melbourne , there were many people that openly hated them. Even on these forums, there have been a few (and I stress a few), with apparently little experience direct;y with them (although one did have, but ignored many others of the complaints he had of them), openly hated them. Religion (including Judaism) has a lot to answer for... But apart from the Palestinian issue, throughout history, what wars, or atrocities have they systemically performed? Yeah, they may think they wre the chosen ones, but I had a discussion with a devout Catholic who was adamant that her friend who converted to Judaism to marry her love picked the wrong religion - not the real one.. so all religions subliminally believe they are the chosen ones (as far as I am concerned). I would love the day where people say, "I couldn't care of your beliefs, I will judge you on your contribution to society, except where there is a bona fide reason why society needs to care for you... " That would be the day himanity saves itself from its own implosion. BTW, Many more Muslims, and others, do respect the country the have migrated to.. The press are great at highlighting the exceptions, not the rule.. but they portray the exception as the rule.

Welcome to my nightmare! 😉

How on earth did this become the Gripes thread?

Yes.. I understand that; my point is we have been living with it for a while so businesses have had time to adjust.. yet they are still falling like flies it would seem. We have a similar system here.. yet housebuilders seem to have survived... Also I doubt the salaries are 80% of costs all up these days.. And the price of Commodities has very little correlation to costs.

They're sociopaths..

I am completely perplexed by this statement.. The facts simply don't support it. Despite the MSM, especially Murdoch, waging a bitter personal campaign against Dan Andrews and then Labor (there goes your can't say a word against them theory), Victorians kept voting them in.. in increasing numbers.. I don't recall any of the crap that any of those you think life would be better under happening in Labor's time. But hey, go and live in the USA under Trump, Russia under Putin (or better still, Ukraine), or somewhere like Syria which does have a leader that is somewhat similar to Hitler.. or Nortk Korea.. and then tell us life is better..