Jerry_Atrick

🙄 Whn you proffer up ceredible evidence climate change is a myth or economic indicators that in the mid - longer term climate change is not a myth or doesn't offer better returns, I'll stop rolling my eyes. In bond origination > 15 years (which is very common for commerical debt), try and get reasonabel rate finance on a leveraged new fossil fuel project.. Most firms I know ar sying away from this lending because the financial risks are to high and expected returns, in the absence of discriminatory regulation (oh, wouldn't that be ironic) from fossil fuels are looking quite a bit lower. Want to grow an economy? Get it to invest. What needs mass investment? Renewables.. Want a wealthier nation with lower operating costs (forgetting the other benefits), fossil fuel really doesn't add up. I suppose when they eventually stop insuring your house and you have to hold all the risk, as did happen to many in LA, you may change your tune.. I have worked in both government and private enterprise in both Australia and the UK.. and my anecdotal observation is pretty this is much the same across both in similar proportions. The difference is, even at my level, which is currently middle management, I am held accountable for cost and economic management, risk management, and functional output in a way that the civil/public service isn't, even when the public service claim to be. But, I think it is a good thing that reviews of and improvemennt to performance and efficiency are conducted - such as DOGE.. It is the execution in this case that worries me. The people conducting such reviews had costs associated with the regulation. I agree regulation should be implemente on a risk based approach - just look at the over regulation of GA in Europe for no safety gain. But those appointed in charge of DOGE have a definite conflict of interest - regulation costs them.. and affects their profits. Therefore, they have an incentive, in their optimisation of the government services to nobble regulators to make them ineffective under the guise of efficiencies and reducing the cost of government. Also, public bodies have a very different function to private enterprise... and it owuld be better to appoint an independent head and hear evidence from different stakeholders in determining the right way to move forward, balancing the objectives of different stakeholders. Althogh in theory that is the same for private enterprise (after all, if you don't have happy customers,who are stakeholders, they won't buy), in practice, many large corporate companies have shown they can ignore a set of their stakeholders, have lots of waste, and still survive, if not thrive. And their bosses that cause this seem immune to the consequences. Anyone care to see how tough Joyce is doing at the moment? And this is the issue with Trump. No doubt, he will get some good done.. some situations respond well to his ways.. but on the whole, the way he has arranged his henchmen this time does not bode well for a balanced improvement..

And he'll throw in an eyeful of a tower to boot.

I am sure people don't want to drive as far these days as we used to, but the niche I am targeting is probably not so concerned about a 2 or 3 hour drive. For me, the business is more accomodation, with some food and drink, as well as integrated activities.

That may work in Deni for the annual ute muster.. Maybe the Tattersals needs a "Big Schooner" or "Big Pint" out the front?

Ahh.. In that case, emoticons can help where the written word can't 😉

I think (and I stress the word, think) I have been through Mathoura once many years ago.. Don't recall stopping, and it would have been on a drive from Echuca to Deni. Every day I do something like it at work ;-).. Despite my ramblings here, I am reasonably friendly in person to most. I get that quality staff are a difficult thing to procure and even more difficult to retain, especially in more rural areas where younger folk often want to move to bigger centre. And, yeah, I get its hot around there.. Although these days not much hotter than Melbourne, and at least the air is usually drier. Keeping the beer, wine, and bar temperate is expensive, but the pub seems to be kitted with a decent number of solar panels to at least ameriorate the cost somewhat. Don't get me wrong; I would be vey unlikely to purchase it. I was wondering why the motel sold reasonably quickly and while it was not expensive compared to more popular areas, it commanded a decent price... Yet the pub, which appears to be kitted out, has the beer garden and in good order can't get a sniff. The profile of hospitality business I am looking for has to be close to some attractions and has to be at a really good price if I have to add accomodation. This isn't too close to decent attractions. But, I was thinking at the right price, it could be a pet project.

Farq! That is expensive... pints here in London equivalent to $10 - $12

Yes - noticed that.. I think the Edward Rive (more like a creek these days) runs along side it.. Yes, a dying town is probably right.. .Will keep the eyes peeled for other opportunities I think...

Wow.. I would have thought Hepburn Springs and surrounds would be a never ending money spiinner. It is a beautiful part of the world. I recall staying at the Lake House in Daysleford and it was packed and expensive (this was when our then only chold was not even a year old, and staying at my brother's in Melbourne). The accomodation was amazing and of course the setting was gorgeous.. but, I have to be honest, the food and drink, given the cost, was, "meh". We have a similar issue with pubs here, where people who should not be running or in the front of house in a pub buy them, and wonder why they start losign money. I have been thinking of what can be done that the pub in Mathoura. It is not a destination like central Vic and many other areas of Aus. It has some minor tourism from what I can gather. To make it a weekend destination pub would require investment in consructing accommodation. It doesn't have to be fancy, but needs to be good enough to attract the city folk, as does the food. But, apart from a dodgy golf course, not much else on offer there from what I can see. So, big risks and is the potential reward worth it (I wonder if Stephano Di Pieri would go halves?) As a local, I imagine if the other pub is owned by an established local, it will be impossible to compete with.. but I think putting on good, cold, fresh (i.e. pipes cleaned regularly) beer, and decent pub grub shold go some way.. But looking at it, it isn't the profile of place I want, but at that price, it could be worth a crack. I am just trying to see the unique selling point that could be brought to it to make it a goer.

Seems to be OK now.

For the next phase in life, I have been looking at businesses, predominantly in the southern NSW Riverina (or northern Victorian area boardering the southern NSW Riverina) area. I am looking predominantly at hospitality businesses to get a feel for the prices. I know if you are looking solely at those advertised for sale, you are likely to pick up a dud. Good businesses go very quick, especially those where the opwner can employ people and still have a decent return. Now, the reason for hospitality is I have a specific marketing vertical in mind; therefore the nature of the hospitality business is important, as is its profile, offering, and proximity to a number of facilities, as well as accessibility options. The reason for the southern NSW Riverina is proximity to what I think is its larger market. In my searches over the last what must be 18 months, this pub has been for sale for all of them: https://www.anybusiness.com.au/listings/mathoura-nsw-2710-accommodation-tourism-hotel-food-hospitality-restaurant-3309521 OK, the business isn't what I am after, and it is not quite in the location I need. There is at least one other pub in Mathoura and with a 2021 population of 1,002, it is hardly a big enough town to support one pub, let alone two. For as long as I can remember, the pub has been advertised as a freehold going concern for $400K. That is way below I think would be building value, so I am guessing there is some law or coventant stopping it being converted to something else. But, in the same town, this came up not long ago and is already under offer: https://www.anybusiness.com.au/listings/mathoura-nsw-2710-accommodation-tourism-motel-3414944 . Yeah, I get it is probably having revenue and profitability issues.. but it looks like a pub with the right operator can turn things around. I know since e-commerce, the traffic of salespeople has probably dropped right off, and it is probably not the hottest tourist town in the Riverina.. But surely it looks good to turnaroound - or am I missing something?

Well, given the first article, I think if Penny does that, she shoes a nous in international diplomacy not attributable to many others.

I can spot a gap in the market, here. Will have to look up the APRA regs sooner or later, so may start now. Reverse mortages are just long term bridging loans; the interest compounds daily over time, and you will find even a small loan will eek out a lot from your estate if it goes for more than three years. And, while I don't know the regs in Aus, over here, they haircut to the value of the property is huge such that if you live too long, you're in a right mess before you die as the financer owns the lot and can turf you out. Whe nlending, the most imprtant risk factor is your income over your basic living costs, today, and estmated in the future. However, a lender can somewhat mitgate it by locking in longer dated swaps; the rate being higher than shorter dated ones.. which will account for a slightly higher interest charge. Also, the charge on the property will cost as there will be legals involved. Unsecured, it will be very tough to get a loan unless you are free of debe and own your property outright. Again, I don't know Australian law, but over here, before the beneficiaries of a will get their hands on the estate, all debtors must be paid out. If the law is the same in Australia, as long as all the necessary rgulations in originating the loan are complied with, the lender will get their grubby profits. As I said, this looks like a gap in the market. Maybe I will set up Aussie Pensioner Loans. Edit.. I have had to borrow to finish the house, and it is moving nicely to the poitn where I am not sure I want to sell. I spoke to my broker, and I am close to retirement age.. and they say they have no probs fudning me on a 25 year mortgage.. and the pension pot is not quite as high as I would like, yet.

Hey @Admin (Ian).. Site is really slow at the moment.. Hope it's not a DDOS attack

Can you pls repost, @nomadpete; for some reason, I can't find it. In terms of threat to jobs, well, it depends what you mean. AI, like any other technology, is a tool for automation. Automation necessarily means replacing somethign a living thing does with a machine, usually cheaper and more reliably. In other words, automation disrupts the labour market. If we think of cars, if it weren't for the recreational and gambling aspect of horse riding, the horse may well have gone the way of the dodo. Noe, carriage makes, farriers, and those connected to the horsing industry, in relative terms is a small fraction of what it was. However, it was replaced by jobs in the automative industry from manufacturing, to selling, to maintaining, to parts, to customisations, etc. I haven't done the maths, but at least in absolute terms due to the decreasing real cost of owning cars and increasing population, the automotive industry employs many more people than the equine industry, and I am guessing that is also in real terms as the middle classes evolved. The point I am trying to make is that as a disrtuptor, technology will only be a problem for the workforce as a whole if it doesn't create more jobs than it takes away, or there is sufficient capacity in the economy and its growth trajectory to take up the slack. In my days of programming, the more radical papers were suggesting my industry would render global unemployment in the 90% range. It was clearly a furphy for anyone in the industry, because it was more about efficiency than replacing jobs. And the other jobs that were created did not require a masters degree in maths and data and computational science to get work. The AI boom, I think, though, is more problematic for the labour market than previous technology. Most techology was discrete in its application. It was more about optimising the work than replacing a human. As an example, I used to work on enterprise asset management systems in the nuclear sector. It was about helping the engineers, health physicists, techicians, bean counters, warehousing, and even buyers have the requisite information at their fingertips. We did dabble in early AI predicitive maintenance techniques, but most of the cerebral work was carried out by a person. AI is very different. As an example, I put this prompt into Chat GPT: "can you write me a stand alone java program that simulates an aircraft artificial horizon that banks a plane when using the left and right keyboard buttons and pitches the plane using the up and down arrow buttons" Attached is the source code it wrote. ArtificialHorizonSimulator.java If you have java installed on your machine, you can execute this by typing "java ArtificialHorizonSimulator", or on Windows you may be able to double click the file. There is no nasties in it, and you have the source to check, but run iut through your anti virus to be sure: ArtificialHorizonSimulator.class(you will also need these in the same directory): ArtificialHorizonFrame$1.classArtificialHorizonFrame$ArtificialHorizonPanel.classArtificialHorizonSimulator.classArtificialHorizonFrame.class It did have some foibles., the pitch line between the artifical sky and ground didn't move and when you banked, it was a square and didn't fill properly: Pitch is now > 40 degrees: (red is my addition) Bank looks like this: You can see it has a square background, so the edges aren't filled. But it took all of 2 minutes and even a qualified java graphics programmer would have taken a lot more time to get this writing it by hand. So, I then asked chat GPT to moth the sky/land relative to pitch and to fill in the background properly, and then to add an altimeter and directional gryo and show relative indications: It didn't quite get it right: But with clearer prompting, and I guess the paid version. less than 5 minutes to provide this is a lot quicker than writing it by hand. And an experienced developer can take this, put the finishing touches on it, and voilla! The thing about AI over more discrete automation is it can do a myriad of things. At work, we use AI to record meetingds, type up minutes and action points, put them in the Outlook tasks with follow ups. Seems remedial, but companies used to hire juniors to do that sort of thing.. not as many juniors are requied. The front office are now experimenting writing prospectuses and pitches for new products. In risk management and trading, we have been using AI for a while, reducing the need for the cerebral staff. When quantum computing comes along, AI will be taken to a different dimension - not because of any groundbreaking new algorithmic advances, but sheer data processing output. AI won't remove the need for the labour market, but it will be the biggest disruptor, and at the moment, I can;t see what will take the place of a significantly reduced demand for many of the people out there now. @Marty_d's work colleagues are right.. There will be a rise of skilled AI prompters; not because AI woll totally replace the workforce, but as it can ouput stuff far better and quicker than humans, it will fill a lot of roles that plug holes, leading to a significantly reduced demand for people.

I remember when I was working in the US abut 25 years ago or so, there was an ad for some Chrysler that had very long service intervals. A quick search found this forum saying 2 years unlimited mileage but I recall it being per mileage and a lot longer: https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=23&t=915296 Anyway, apparently the Mini Countryman, at least in Aus, as an "on condition" servicing regime (fast forward to 14:10 of this vid): So, even if older cars have long intervals, I would not buy one second hand with too many miles on the clock. My parnter has a Countryman - same colour - but I drive it the most since 2020, when the ULEZ charge was brought in London, as ours meets emissions requirements and we don't have to pay. We bought it witn 1,000 miles on the clock and touch wood, nothing gone wrong with it with almost 50K miles (not kms) on the clock. Because of the London ULEZ charge, I use it going to London (it is exempt of the charge), so now, most of its driving is motorway miles. However, I ensure it (and the XC90) have their oil changed 6 monthly/5K miles and a service every 10K miles regardless.

Back to Trump.. well in this case the village people.. shows that principles are only as deep as one pockets are willing to bear, or how much one can make: https://www.dw.com/en/nothing-gay-about-it-what-connects-donald-trump-and-the-village-people/a-71313815?mobileApp=true

A gay band doing a gig on a super right wing president's swearing in.. That does make me chuckle.

Gripe of the week - Me! I have been under the pump at wirk for the last few weeks.. and I have been skimming rather than forensically reading emails. Unf, I bloody-well agreed to something that I didn't want to, because I thought it was about something else. When my manager questioned if I had responded to the request, I had let her know that I hadn't even received the request. She insisted the team responsible for sending it had. As we were speaking the team member who sent the request responded they were delighted I had agreed. I hurriedly found the original email, and realised it was cunningly cloaking the subject of the email - not intentionally. You see, a similar request was being made of a subordinate, and the descriton of the person was generic and I assumed, as I was managing that and expecting the request of me to come in later, that it was about him. Confirmation bias. F! Now I have to do soemthing I don't want to, wasn't mandatory, and now I have to attend sessions that I really, really, want to avoid. In my younger days, I would have spotted that very quickly. My gripe; Getting old!

He has moved the swearing in ceremony indoors because the forecast is cold.

An oldie but a goodie

Yeah, but won't pollutants in the air corrode it?

Yet, people still vote for him Would I vote for Trump? Probably not. Reason, a lot of what he stands for that I oppose means more to me than the stuff I consider good policy. Also, he is a felon with impending charges, has manged to corrupt the system the first time around, and of course, has the backing a the more powerful MSM corporations. And of course, he has been found, albeit on a civil basis; balance of probailities rather than beyoind reasonable doubt; as a rapist. The rather long investigations would have resulted in grafting and corruption charges in relation trying to really steal the election, and of course, his business accumen leaves a lot to be desired, and his "Art of the Deal" shoud be Art of the Shady Deal.. Remember he has been broke a few times, and relies on not paying people to keep his wealth, or as OT has pointed out, corruption while int eh presidency to increase his weath. I am not sure they are the qualities I would look for in a leader that has to govern for everyone. I could be wrong, though. I do think, though, he is somewhat maligned as well. Despie his many foibles, his bellicose and bullying have got results in certain circumstances. And it's not that other presidents haven't had some of these shortcomings (OK, rape not, but sexual exploitation, definitely). At least with Trump, what you see is what you get.. .The others do what they can to hide their lesser acceptable traits. Yes, he is nuts and dangerous, but not smart enough to do that much damage without a lot of support. That is the problem this time around; the people he has got in for the jobs are a lot more pernicious than the previious lot. But, while he is irrational and random, he is not unpredictable. Follow the money or the glory or the girls, and he is very predictable. OK, blustering on about ttaking Greenland by force was a little unpredictable. The other thing about Trump is, if he does something and it does not achieve his agenda, he has no problem changing course. There is no pretence in that respect. It's not working; he "backflips." While the press and many people see that as a weakness or failure, I see it is being real and a positive. Would I vote for hi? No. Do I see him as bigger threat as a lot of democrat leaning people do (of which I would consider myself one on most policy)? No. Do I consider people who voted for him idiots or would I deny anyone who voted for him something because they voted for him? No.

Netanyahu has thanked Trump; apparently his bellicose approach spooked negotiators back to the table. Most of the papers are crediting him with it. It's a positive step.. but not yet a done deal.. there are still some things to finalise the first round to a truce and then second round of negotiations to start by th 16th day of the truce.. As I have read there are two red lines for Israel.. return all the hostages and disarm Hamas.. The first has been written about in the articles I have read but not the second. Would be a big concession for Netanyahu for that not to happen. My point is, Trump will still have to deal with this..

Do you hit the equals button in between.. if so, that is expected as you have asked it to do that equation first and then apply the results to the next equation. If you don't it may be a setting or it is a bug