I've come to the conclusion that my hypothesis is WRONG. The British did not go to Botany Bay to establish a base for agriculture and commerce. They went there to create a dumping ground to releive the congestion in the hulks and prisons which were filled with souls whose crimes we now consider to be at the lowest end of criminality.
I've reached this conclusion through a bit more reading. My main source that lead me to this conclusion is the book 1788 by David Hill. (See notes below for book identification)
From this book I learned thatin 1717 the British parliament passed an Act which enabled the transportation of felons to foreign shores. At that time those shores were those of the American colonies, to which some forty thousand convicts were taransported (into slavery) over the following sixty years. Convicts committed to transportatin were sold by theo goalers to the shipping contactors, who took them actoss the Atlantic and sold the prisoners to plantation owners for the duration of their sentences.
In 1777, the Parliament passed the Hulk Act, which allowed for the confinement of convicts in decommissioned British naval vessels on the Thames and other English rivers and ports. This was seen as a temporary measure until the American insurrection was quashed, but those colonies were granted independence in 1783 through the Treaty of Paris. leaving Britain with no place to transport convicts to, and crowding began to get bad in the hulks. So, based on the promptings of Sir Joseph Banks that the east coast of New South Wales (as Cook named it) would be a great place, in depth plans were made to sens an advance party to establish a colony to which thousands of convicts could be sent in future.
The problem with Botany Bay was/is that it is no good for agriculture. (I grew up on its shores, and I know what the soil is like - crap.) Joseph Banks doesn’t come out of it very well. He enthused about Australia as a verdant land of opportunity when (a) his own notes were less effusive, and (b) he’d seen hardly anything of the place and was only here for a week. All he had done was collect a lot of plants. He obviously knew nothing of the requirements for agriculture.
If these comments raise your interest in that bit of histroy, I recommend the book to you. After reading it, you will wonder at the survival of those convicts, Marines and officials during their first few years on these Fatal Shores. You can chase up the book with these details:
Author: David Hill
Title: 1788, The Brutal Truth of the First Fleet,
Publisher: Random House (William Heinemann)
ISBN: 9781741668001