octave

https://lavablue.com.au/articles/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-the-energy-transition/ Historically, the alarm over mineral scarcity is not new. In 1924, copper expert Ira Joralemon predicted a shortage of copper, essential for electrical power, which would threaten the basis of civilization. Contrary to this prediction, copper production has increased twenty-fold in the hundred years since that prediction was made. One might wonder if future generations will regard the current focus on today's critical minerals as misplaced concern, given the dynamic nature of technological and industrial development. Let’s dig a bit deeper.

Interestingly, technology continues to progress. Whilst opinions seem the vary on the future supply of copper, other options are coming into play. I have read that this technology could be used for EVs but even if not, substituting an aluminium cast coil in less crucial applications will surely free up copper. Many traditional uses of copper are changing, for example, the use of PEX rather than copper for plumbing. https://een.ec.europa.eu/partnering-opportunities/cast-aluminium-or-copper-coils-next-generation-e-drives https://castcoil.de/

Extracting anything from the earth comes at a cost. The less we have to extract the better. Drilling for oil has a pretty large environmental costs. If you are right then the costs of products requiring copper will increase. These products will naturally fall out of favour.

Here is a more succinct way of putting it. Despite increased demand for copper produced from ore in recent years, increases in RESERVES have grown, and there is more IDENTIFIED copper available to the world than at any other time in history. https://icsg.org/long-term-availability-of-copper/

I take that to mean "available" as in what we are able to mine. This is an increasing amount because exploration techniques and mining techniques improve. As an example, years ago, there was thought to be 50 years supply of crude oil left. Today, that number remains the same. Why? Because this time frame is based on "known reserves", as time passes, we have learned how to find and extract oil that in the past was undetectable or too difficult to extract. When the quote says "there is more of the metal AVAILABLE today than at any other time in history, it means that methods of discovery have improved and also extraction. Available DOES NOT mean that the Earth's amount of copper has grown. This applies to oil as well, - "known reserves"

Copper can be recycled, oil can't. In terms of copper availability, according to the International Copper Association. "Despite an ever-increasing demand for copper, there is more of the metal available today than at any other time in history. This, together with the ability to infinitely recycle copper, means that society is extremely unlikely to deplete the copper supply, and copper will continue to contribute to global initiatives, like the SDGs and clean energy." Copper Demand and Long-Term Availability and according to AI While the demand for copper is increasing, especially with the push for renewable energy and electrification, it's highly unlikely we will run out of copper in the foreseeable future. There are large reserves and resources of copper, and recycling efforts and new technologies are expected to help meet the growing demand. Here's a more detailed explanation: Abundant Resources: Copper is naturally present in the Earth's crust, and there are vast reserves and resources that have been discovered and are potentially profitable. Recycling: Copper is highly recyclable, and recycling efforts are expected to play a significant role in meeting future demand. Innovation and Exploration: Mining exploration and new technologies are constantly contributing to the long-term availability of copper. Increased Reserves: Despite increased demand, reserves of copper have grown, and there's more identified copper available than ever before. Demand vs. Supply: While some studies predict a potential shortfall in the near future, others suggest that supply will be adequate to meet demand with continued exploration, recycling, and technological advancements. Economic Factors: Copper prices may fluctuate based on supply and demand, but scarcity is unlikely to be a major long-term issue. Importance for Green Transition: Copper is crucial for renewable energy technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles, so meeting demand is essential for the green transition.

I can only speak for myself, but especially as I have gotten older, I have become more sensitive to motion sickness, not throwing up, but feeling nauseous in cars and trains. On our recent trip around NZ on the South Island, we rented a car (IC). As we were travelling with my son and his partner, he did all the driving, so my wife and I were relegated to the back. As usual, I felt off colour (but suffered in silence), especially on winding roads. Back on the North Island, we did a road trip in the Tesla, again wife and I sat in the back. Same winding roads, however, this time I felt completely fine. I have no idea whether the form of propulsion played any part in it. I do wonder whether the glass roof played some part in it. I even found I could read something on my phone. I do not know whether this is really a thing or not. I few things do occur to me, though. There is a suggestion that regenerative braking might be one issue. I guess one you reduce or turn it off, Simple. I do have doubts about this. As a passenger, I cannot tell if regenerative braking is engaged or not. Another thing mentioned in the article is the brisk acceleration of most EVs. Another suggestion in the article is - "Another factor is the lack of engine noise. The familiar sound of a gasoline engine helps the brain prepare for movement." - I mean, if there is anything in this, are we stuck with having noisy vehicles? I have no idea if there is solid science behind this, but certainly it is the first time I have heard this. I am sure there was resistance to getting off a horse and into a car or plane.

Just to add to the studies regarding EVs. One study suggests that EVs have 80% more "issues" and a German study shows EVs have a lower breakdown rate. Germany’s Allgemeiner Deutscher Automobil-Club (ADAC) published an analysis of breakdowns attended by its “Yellow Angel” service responders. The breakdown rate for combustion engines was 9.4 breakdowns per 1,000 vehicles in 2024, compared to just 3.8 for electric cars. Study shows EVs suffer fewer breakdowns than ICE vehicles Here is a transcript for Unbiased Straight Facts website A NEW STUDY INTO ELECTRIC VEHICLES HAS FOUND THEY BREAK DOWN FAR LESS OFTEN THAN GAS-POWERED CARS. BUT, DIFFERENT RECENTLY RELEASED DATA FROM A SEPARATE ORGANIZATION IS CLAIMING EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE. RESEARCH BY THE GERMAN AUTOMOBILE CLUB INDICATES EVS MANUFACTURED IN THE PAST FIVE YEARS HAVE SHOWN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER BREAKDOWN RATES THAN THEIR GAS AND DIESEL COUNTERPARTS. THEIR STATISTICS SHOW EVS BUILT BETWEEN 2020 AND 2022 HAD AN AVERAGE BREAKDOWN RATE OF 4.2 PER 1,000 VEHICLES- LESS THAN HALF THE 10.4 PER 1,000 RATE OBSERVED AMONG COMBUSTION ENGINE CARS. HOWEVER, THE UK’S AUTOMOBILE ASSOCIATION HAS CAUTIONED AGAINST ASSUMING ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE MORE RELIABLE. THEY SAY EVS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RATE OF BREAKDOWNS, POINTING TO CHALLENGES UNIQUE TO ELECTRIC MODELS—SUCH AS JAMMED CHARGING CABLES AND TECHNICAL GLITCHES. ALTHOUGH, THE AUTOMOBILE ASSOCIATION’S FINDINGS DID ALSO CLAIM THAT MOST EV ISSUES ARE FIXABLE ON THE ROADSIDE- WITH 90% OF BREAKDOWNS BEING RESOLVED WITHOUT A TOW—COMPARED TO 86% FOR GAS AND DIESEL VEHICLES. IN TRYING TO RESOLVE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE TWO CONFLICTING DATA SETS- IT IS IMPORTANT TO LOOK AT WHAT INTERESTS THE PROVIDERS OF THIS INFORMATION MAY BE TRYING TO PROMOTE. FOR EXAMPLE, THE GERMAN AUTOMOBILE CLUB’S PRO-ELECTRIC VEHICLE REPORT COMES AS THE ORGANIZATION OPERATES A NETWORK OF EV CHARGERS ACROSS GERMANY- AND HAS PREVIOUSLY PROVIDED FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO INITIATIVES THAT PROMOTE ELECTRIC MOBILITY. MEANWHILE, ONE OF THE AUTOMOBILE ASSOCIATION’S OWNERS, CVC CAPITAL PARTNERS, HAS INVESTED BILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN MULTIPLE OIL AND GAS COMPANIES AROUND THE WORLD.

The problem with reliability surveys is that there are often vested interests at play ON BOTH SIDES. A new study conducted by Europe’s largest automobile association has found that electric vehicles (EVs) are less prone to breaking down than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles of the same age, which can suffer two and a half times as many breakdowns as electric cars. EVs more reliable than ICE vehicles, with the best and worst electric cars identified (April 2025) I think the language in the 80% story is interesting. In one iteration of this story it says 80% more "issues" and in another 80% more problems I would love to see the raw data. The closest the article comes to data is; "The most common issues for electric cars include faulty charging systems and poor assembly, such as misaligned body panels and loose interior fittings." Only one of these issues relates the the car being an EV. I know early Teslas had alignment issues but I understand this has been mostly fixed. There is absolutely no reason why, for example, an MG4 EV should have any more body panel issues than its IC counterpart. Another issue is that many EVs have software that reports even minor issues automatically. It is a common story in the media that Tesla is recalling a million vehicles for a fault. When you track down the story, the recall actually means an over-the-air update. It is important to look at the data dispassionately, whether you favour EVs or IC and to realise that on both sides there are vested interests as well as unconscious bias, again on both sides.

Turns out that this vehicle is back on the road.

I believe most petrol stations make most of their profit from their convenience stores. I suspect this is why pay at the pump is still relatively rare; they need you to come inside. I often use a BP app which means I don't have to go inside to pay however there are all sorts of discounts on shop items that I could only redeem by going inside.

My son's first EV was a BMW I3 Rex (range extender). This is not really a Hybrid. It had a built-in motor, which I believe was a BMW motorcycle motor. When the battery got to a certain level (which I think you could decide) the motor would automatically start up and replenish the charge (with certain limitations) This concept was discontinued as battery tech improved. https://www.motortrend.com/reviews/one-week-2016-bmw-i3-rex

So here is an extremely detailed tour of Redwood Materials, a battery recycling company. This video is an hour long, so I guess most people won't watch it so here are a few key points. This business is profitable, and it does not receive any federal subsidies. Apart from making money selling materials recovered from batteries, it also makes cathodes. At the 38-minute mark, it shows you another one of its income streams. They have 20MW of Solar panels They have 60MW of battery storage, which comes from 800 used EV battery packs. As well as using this power for the factory, it is able to sell power to the neighbouring data centre at a price less than the grid and still make a profit.

I agree, but I also marvel at how long we have been constantly burning petrol. I wonder how many litres of petrol has been burned around the world in the time it takes to type this.

I am not sure how many EV battery packs end up in landfills fill however, this is and will be getting more and more absurd., A battery pack with 70% of its original capacity is still useful. Here are just 2 examples Enel inagurates 10 MWh second-life battery project at Italian airport