octave

I think that simplifies a huge problem. There would have to be at least several form factors for very different cars (Rivian - Mini). I feel a problem is that this would lead to the car being designed around the battery, which could hold innovation. I agree that phones should have replaceable batteries (actually you can change the batt on just about any phone but it is a bit onerous) The non swappable battery is just not to make more money but does actually serve a purpose. A couple of months ago I slipped while getting out of my kayak and I fell into chest deep water with my phone in my pocket. The phone was well and truly submerged but it was fine. Any way I digress. Whoa there, that is a big claim. An IC car can last 40 years or more, but this is rare and calls for meticulous maintenance. I have never had a new car and my cars do tend to be older but at some point, mechanics start to complain that they cant get that spare part that you need to get back on the road. Do we want to drive around in a 40 year car in terms of safety features? There are early EVs around that have had their battery replaced. Initially this was expensive however the price is falling. There are 3rd party battery solutions. Cost: 40 kWh battery: Replacement can cost around $6,500 - $7,500. 62 kWh battery: Replacement can cost around $8,500 - $9,500 24 kWh battery: Replacement can cost around $3,000 - $5,000. 30 kWh battery: Replacement can cost around $3,500 - $4,500. I am not sure about that but I will have a look around. It stands to reason that the battery has to be paid for somehow. The battery swap station is not supplying the battery for nothing. Battery leasing, I imagine, would be cheaper up front however, not in the long run. It is like renting a house is cheaper up front than buying a house. When I lived in the bush, I used to go through a 9kg cylinder a week. With the cylinder swap system, you do need to start with a cylinder or pay more for the first one. Mostly I would get them refilled because it was much cheaper. Batteries ARE lasting the distance (see the research). The standard battery warranty is 8 years and 160,000 km, and some now are 10 years or 250,000 km. If I buy a new EV with a brand-new swappable battery and the first time I swap, I may get a battery that is towards the end of its life. Although I think Tesla batteries form part of the structure, this does not mean they are not replaceable. What about the convenience and economy of charging at home? I believe Nio charges to 90%. The charging rate slows down substantially for that last portion of the charge. My son charges his EV to 80% however, for a road trip, he will charge it to 100% He is able to manage his own charging regime. This is not correct. The majority of Taxis in China are not battery swap models. "In China, most electric vehicle (EV) taxis utilize plug-in charging rather than battery swapping. While battery swapping is an option, particularly for commercial vehicles like taxis and logistics trucks, plug-in charging remains the dominant method for EVs in general. China is also rapidly expanding its network of both battery swap stations and fast-charging stations." To be clear, I am not against battery swapping, and I see room for both, but when I eventually purchase an EV, I want to charge it mostly at home from relatively cheap (at the moment) overnight power or my excess solar.

This is one example of an early EV. EVs of this vintage had poor battery management and no battery cooling. In the last 10 years, battery chemistry and construction have improved massively. Don't take my word for it, just search for rigorous studies. If you hope to convince me, you need to post something more than one of the very early examples of an EV https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2024/12/existing-ev-batteries-may-last-up-to-40-longer-than-expected+ https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/ev-battery-longevity-concerns-unfounded-study-finds When it comes to battery swap, I think there is probably a place for it, but let's face it, it is not the solution for recharging large numbers of EVs If you look at countries that are way ahead on EV adoption, battery swaping does not seem to be a flourishing area of enterprise. Of course, at this stage, only one or two models are compatible. The idea that every EV could take the same battery regardless of whether it is a 2-seat convertible a family sedan or an enormous 4-wheel drive a little problematic. The battery for a Rivian is not going to fit in an EV Mini As an example, my son (if his car had a swappable battery) could drive to work for 4 or 5 days and then go to a battery swap centre and spend 5 or 10 minutes getting the battery swapped (assuming no queue) and pay a fee that covers the cost of the electricity, fitting etc. or he could drive into his garage once or twice a week, plug the car in and forget it. At 5 cents a kWh overnight it is hard to see how battery swap could compete. Tesla batteries are exceeding expectations, so what would be the benefit? Apart from that, how would battery swap stations work in the situation in this clip? 637 chargers serving 3300 cars a day

https://www.drivencarguide.co.nz/news/how-long-ev-batteries-really-last-according-to-new-data/

Apparently, commercial building owners can lease their roof space to a company that will put up solar panels. https://upstreamenergy.com.au/solar-solutions/roof-licensing

I have just been reading about megachargers. I think perhaps what is being missed by those who say you can't supply enough power to charge 10 vehicles simultaneously at a fast rate is the fact that these megacharge facilities that exist right now rely on storing energy in a large battery (battery buffering). These batteries can be charged 24/7 from the grid and supported by solar, etc. China's ultrafast EV charging station can charge 20 cars in 8 minutes

I have often come across or been sent this cartoon or similar versions. Besides the fact that most grids do not rely solely on coal and the fact that every year the percentage of renewables increases, it ignores the fact that petrol and diesel are also reliant on power from the grid. Of course we need to compare like with like, so for EVs this must include all inputs and likewise for IC According to AI It takes approximately 4 to 6 kilowatt hours (kWh) of electricity to refine one gallon of gasoline. This is equivalent to the energy needed to power an electric vehicle for roughly 16 to 24 miles, depending on the vehicle and its efficiency. Breakdown: Refining: The core refining process consumes about 4-6 kWh per gallon. Total Energy Input: This figure doesn't include the energy used for extracting the crude oil, transporting it to the refinery, or delivering the gasoline to the pump. These steps also require energy, some of which may be electricity. Comparison to EVs: A typical electric vehicle (EV) gets around 4 miles per kWh. This means the electricity used in refining a gallon of gasoline could potentially power an EV for 16 to 24 miles. Important Considerations: Efficiency: The efficiency of refineries and EVs can vary, so these are just estimates and Oil refineries are highly energy-intensive, and their electricity consumption varies widely depending on size, complexity, and specific processes. A medium-complexity refinery with a 150 kbbl/d capacity might need 50 MW or more of electricity. A rough estimate for a 30 MMTPA (million metric tons per annum) refinery is around 300 MW. Electrification of refineries, using low-carbon electricity for process heating, is a key strategy for reducing carbon emissions. Here's a more detailed breakdown: General Energy Consumption: Refineries consume a significant amount of energy, with some sources indicating it can be as high as 5-10% of the energy content of the crude oil processed. Electricity vs. Thermal Energy: While a large portion of a refinery's energy needs are met by burning fuels for process heating, a considerable amount of electricity is also required for various processes, including pumps, compressors, and other equipment. Factors Influencing Consumption: Refinery size, complexity (number of processing units), and the specific mix of products produced all affect the total energy and electricity demand, according to Concawe. Electrification Potential: Many refinery processes can be electrified, meaning they can be powered by low-carbon electricity sources, which is a crucial step in decarbonizing the industry. Example: A refinery processing 100,000 barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil might consume 6.3% of that amount in energy, with a portion of that being useful power (electricity). Cost: While electricity might only represent a small percentage of the total energy consumption in a refinery, it can account for a significant portion of the total energy costs.

The idea of shopping centre carparks with solar panels and charging stations is already a reality. Electric vehicle fast chargers have landed at Elizabeth City Centre

I agree. This is already starting to happen. There are a few that have already been in operation for a few years shopping centres such as Chadstone in Victoria and Elizabeth in South Australia. I am familiar with the one in Elizabeth SA, as I visit this area 4 times a year. Elizabeth Shopping Centre – Solar Car Park Shade and Membrane Structures Australia

This looks like similar to the unit i this vid. In this case, it is connected to the grid and when the battery is full and or demandis low it can sell back to the grid. Also, this was installed in 3 hours.

I believe Tesla already has a Megacharger for their semi trailer at their factory, and that they are building 46 in the US that canoutput up to 1.2Mw https://evchargingstations.com/chargingnews/tesla-develops-46-megacharger-stations-for-semi-trucks/ https://kempower.com/solution/megawatt-charging-system/

I do get your point, but I think the 5-minute charge is unnecessary. I am guessing that a charging station will not allow large numbers to charge simultaneously, and it will come at a cost. By the way, no Tesla can charge at that rate anyway; few cars can. It does not seem to be a killing blow to the adoption EVs Interestingly, BYD who I believe is pioneering 5 5-minute charging, don't believe there is much demand for it at the moment, especially given the cost-to-benefit analysis.

Yeah I get that. I think, though, that it is setting the bar very high. You must be able to refuel in 5 minutes flat. The long trip I did with my son's Tesla we never charged it to more than 80%. Each stop coincided with a piss stop or lunch or coffee. Other than lunch I don't think we stopped for more than 10 or 15 minutes. Sure, there are those for whom this would not be good enough. Some folks want to drive for hours without a stop. I guess the point I am making is that the naysayers construct these edge cases where they need to charge in 5 minutes, but this I would suggest, is rare. I get that charging 10 Teslas in 5 minutes simultaneously would be a bit of a stretch; however, I doubt that this is going to be how people charge and that it would be price prohibitive. The video from the charging station at Schengen is interesting. It takes about an hour to charge for a whole days driving. The taxi driver gets an hour a day to relax. The cost is a fraction of the cost of petrol and the historically polluted air of this city is improving. This sounds like everyone is winning.

OME have a look at some of the videos I have posted.

"Large batteries are increasingly being used to support EV charging stations, providing several benefits like reducing grid strain, enabling faster charging, and enabling grid stability through Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) technology. These batteries can act as buffers, storing energy during off-peak times and discharging it during peak times, or when there is a high demand for charging, helping to manage the load on the grid". https://www.power-sonic.com/blog/battery-buffered-ev-charging/

Some very large charging stations, Shenzhen 637 chargers. these are not superchargers but yes all these taxis do charge at once (30 40 or 50 Kw) Merkingen Germany 250 chargers of various capacities. Barstow California 120 superchargers

Are you saying it takes 1Mwh to put 100Kwh into the battery?

How do you arrive at that figure? EV charger efficiency typically ranges from 85% to 95% for Level 2 charging, and slightly lower for DC fast charging. This means that for every 100 kWh drawn from the grid, 85-95 kWh are effectively stored in the vehicle's battery. The efficiency can vary based on the charger type, age, and maintenance. Elaboration: Charging Efficiency: This refers to how effectively electricity from the grid is converted into energy stored in the vehicle's battery. Level 2 Charging: This is the most common type of charging for home and public charging stations. It generally has a high efficiency, typically between 85% and 95%. DC Fast Charging: While DC fast charging can be quicker, it may have slightly lower efficiency compared to Level 2 charging. Energy Loss: Energy loss during charging primarily occurs as heat due to the conversion of AC power from the grid to DC power required by the battery. Factors Affecting Efficiency: Charger type, age, maintenance, and the vehicle's on-board charging system can all affect the overall efficiency. Importance of Efficiency: Higher efficiency means less energy is wasted during charging, potentially leading to lower electricity bills and reduced environmental impact.

I cant think of any country that is pushing for immediate EV adoption. Most countries have targets for 2030 to 2035, and this only applies to the sale of new vehicles.

Is it impossible to build a factory that has large power requirements in a country town? Some countries have a high EV uptake. Is Norway's grid collapsing? Are there enormous queues to charge? Certainly, Norway is not a vast country, although it is quite hilly and cold, which doesn't help. The premise that we don't have enough power rests on the idea that things never change.

Sure, at the moment, the grid could not support universal EV ownership. But are you saying that the grid has reached its ultimate capacity? Once upon a time, travel in remote areas in petrol cars was difficult. We are comparing a mature petrol distribution system with a developing charging network. Elsewhere in this forum, people have expressed an opinion that Australia should get back into manufacturing. We could say we don't have the power or grid to support lots of factories. This would be short-sighted. You build the grid you need. I don't believe there is any scenario where the number of EVs on the road increases massively in a short time. If you drive around the outskirts of most large cities, you will see vast estates being built. All of these houses require electricity. The grid has to grow to meet demand, and it will. As far as EV adoption goes we are way behind many other countries. This means the experiment is being done for us. Are other countries' grids with greater EV adoption collapsing? If enough people are driving long distances in the country and the facilities are insufficient, isn't this then a business opportunity?

I agree that it does get more difficult. We have picked the low-hanging fruit. On the other side, there is innovation. The grid used to be a one-way street; however, now the grid is much more complex. I take from the grid and give back to the grid. Coming innovations, such as vehicle-to-grid, will be important. Net zero is not just about generating electricity; it also covers carbon removed by natural methods and things such as carbon capture and storage. I view the net-zero target as aspirational. (I would like to lose 10kg by the end of the year, but 7kg would still be good.) If renewables truly are going to double the price of electricity or cause regular blackouts, the public will not tolerate it, and it will be modified. Technology continues to advance. When we built our solar power house in 1990, the most efficient and cost-effective light was quartz halogen bulbs 20w each or 30w (12 volts), where we needed more light. My present LED lights are super efficient compared to the older technologies. I remember paying $595 per 60-watt solar panel; now you can get about 400 watts for about $200. My present solar system (grid-connected) did receive subsidies. Yes, this did come from the taxpayer; however, I am not the sole beneficiary of this. A good example is during hot weather. My solar is powering my aircon and some else's. In other words, during times when a lot is asked of the grid, I am contributing to the grid. The same goes for batteries. I would suggest that if a new coal-powered power station were to be built, it would require substantial subsidies from the taxpayer.

Just skimming through a report from Energy Networks Australia suggests that prices went up in 2024due to high gas prices. "Electricity residential prices (real $2023) are forecast to increase significantly by 2024 due to volatility in international gas prices. » While prices are forecast to stabilise by 2030 there will be slightly higher network prices due to higher input costs. » Prices rise again between 2030 and 2040 associated with firming the system to enable the transition to renewable generation. » Energy sales from electrical vehicles will help reduce network prices by FY2050, helping to bring down energy prices through improved utilisation. However, this will be offset by the need for transmission investment to connect renewable zones." Of course, changing the way we generate and distribute power will have some up-front costs but sticking with the old does not seem to be a viable option. I note that Bluescope is quite active in renewable projects for it's own operations. I disagree with the notion that we are rushing at breakneck speed towards renewables. In 2013 14.76% of power was from renewables and in 2024 it was a little under 40% Yes Australia does only produce a small amount of the total CO2 however if you added the emissions from all of the countries that produce under 2% it is a meaningful contribution. Also do we want to be a backwater that relies on old technology? Whilst China is a huge polluter it is also adopting renewables at a fast rate. It is like turning around a super tanker, but it is happening.

You do have to factor in the different ways people refuel EVs. My son only uses a public charger when on a road trip, perhaps once or twice a year. It makes no sense to pay 60 cents a kWh at a public charging station when he can do it at home for 5 cents a kWh. If we are talking time to refuel, the EV only requires you to put the plug in when you get home from work.

I would agree that it would be impossible to be 100% renewable tomorrow. The history of renewables has been that when it was 5% the naysayers would claim that this was the limit and the grid would become unstable. Every year, the percentage of renewables grows. I believe it is now almost 40%. This, of course, is not evenly spread. Tasmania, for example, is 100% renewable (mainly hydro). There are several countries that are at or extremely near 100%, so it is possible. Of course, many of these countries have natural assets that make it easier. The naysayers often have a point, but that point was valid several years ago. It reminds me of folks who criticise EVs for only having a minuscule range or for taking 8 hours to charge. These are valid arguments if it were 2005. The old arguments often don't get updated as technology inevitably improves. In 1990, we built a house and designed and installed a simple solar system. Our house ran on 12 volts, although later we added an inverter. It was expensive and a little bit like camping. As the years went by, technology improved and became cheaper. In our house, now we are connected to the grid; however, we generate about twice what we use. The next step will be a battery. This does not mean we could be free of the grid again because there is a seasonal aspect to the power we generate. This may change as battery tech continues to advance. In this country, there is a huge potential for renewables. Whilst it is not always sunny everywhere, it is usually sunny somewhere and likewise wind. With modern HVDC and uHDC transmission and improved storage technologies, renewables become more and more viable. Where we are at the moment, with around 40% being renewables, means the EV you charge off the grid is 40% (on average) free from fossil fuels. I can only see this as a good thing. Next year, it might be 45% free of fossil fuels.

This is worth watching. It critiques another clip that compares an EV and an IC on a road trip and points out how dishonest it is. This clip does contain facts and figures so it can be fact-checked.