COVID-19 Virus.

[red750]

No! Victorians did a good job. Daniel Andrews got us into this mess. (See my relevant post in Quickies part 2.

[Admin]

All Australians should realise how much damage Daniel Andrews and the Labour Party did to the whole country and it was the Victorian people that suffered but ultimately through their suffering did what they could to come out of it...Every Australian, and their children, is now going to have to pay even more for years to come because of Daniel Andrews. I really hope we remember the failings that caused all of this and not the fact we fixed it.

[willedoo]

3 hours ago, Marty_d said:

So... does that mean that Daniel Andrews did a good job? 

Some people must think so. Dictator Dan and his Dastardly Labor Party are rolling the opposition in the opinion polls.

 

And in Queensland the horrible border closing, economy crashing Labor government has had a big win with a 11 seat majority. So what's going on; has the Labor Party washed people's brains?

Edited November 20, 2020 by willedoo

[old man emu]

 

1 hour ago, Admin said:

I really hope we remember the failings that caused all of this and not the fact we fixed it.

 

I wonder what the story would have been if the Conservatives had been in government in Victoria. Was the spread of the disease really exacerbated by Government policy there, or was it spread because of an attitude of the people who refused to heed the advice of health professionals? It seems to me that the politicians forming government could not stand on every street corner to tell these egocentric people  to take precautions, anymore than the same politicians could stamp out illegal drugs.

[Admin]

24 minutes ago, old man emu said:

 

 

I wonder what the story would have been if the Conservatives had been in government in Victoria. Was the spread of the disease really exacerbated by Government policy there, or was it spread because of an attitude of the people who refused to heed the advice of health professionals? It seems to me that the politicians forming government could not stand on every street corner to tell these egocentric people  to take precautions, anymore than the same politicians could stamp out illegal drugs.

There is always a minority group.

 

Interesting that Corrine just told me that on the midday News on the radio, it was reported that a recent survey of Australians, sorry can't provide the details for credibility, that 65% of those surveyed said they would not take the Covid vaccine. The even more interesting thing is that 65% is made up mostly of females and young people.

 

So, I can see restrictions coming in saying things like "proof of vaccination required when purchasing an airline ticket" or "sending children to school" etc etc etc

[red750]

OME, there are a number of contributing factors. Firstly, quarantine locations should not be in the middle of the CBD. The same thing happened in Adelaide as in Victoria. There are too many incentives for people in quarantine to break iso and go for a coffee etc. Out in the boondocks, there is nowhere to go.

 

Secondly, people working in quarsntine locations should be banned from having second jobs. Pay them enough so they don't have to. A Melbourne security guard had a second job as an Uber driver. The cleaner in the Adelaide centre had a second job delivering pizzas and covid.

 

Thirdly, a large percentage of spreaders are ethnics. Yes I'll get shot down for this. But either they have limited fluency of English to understand the messages, don't watch/listen to enough mainstream media to hear the directions, or their cultural practices (large family or religious gatherings, etc.) overrule the directions to "Stay Apart, Stay Safe".

 

And then of course there are the ratbag deniers who cry "Hoax!" A lot of people have died from a hoax around the world.

[Bruce Tuncks]

No, Andrews  has not done a good job. The rules which allowed the second wave were very poorly thought through. Hotel quarantine in the middle of Melbourne for example. Quarantine should be on an island as anyone with half a brain knows.

And Red correctly summed up the ethnic contribution.  I think the Andrews government are too politically correct to see this but it is really there.

That Adelaide outbreak was ( I think ) an Indian family. What we know is that a Hindu temple was a place one of them at least visited.

I'm amazed that 65% would NOT take a vaccine. Maybe there is a big difference between saying something and actually doing it.. One of the things about the US polls was that people who voted trump in a secret ballot had said the opposite to a pollster.

But I sure agree there should be a payoff for something like getting vaccinated.  Like having fewer restrictions as was suggested.

 

 

[nomadpete]

I don't like to see this discussion becoming a partisan issue. That's been a major cause of the American covid tragedy.

 

What ever happened to common sense? The whole population (regardless of their party beliefs) has been given heaps of notice that the most important way to limit the spread of this pandemic is:

*Wash your hands. Often.

*Use sanitiser when entering a place

*Maintain social distancing

*If you can't do that, stay away from crowds

* If there is a lot of transmission wear a mask. I blame cultural arrogance, apathy, and plain childish rebellion against authority.

 

In our country, as we have seen in USA, allowing it to become a party bashing symbol just gives people an excuse to be silly.

[old man emu]

2 hours ago, red750 said:

A Melbourne security guard had a second job as an Uber driver

That makes me really question the licensing of people working in the security industry. If you live in the Capital cities you notice that the majority of people doing shopping centre and other stationary security work are apparently Indians. It seems only to be a few years that we have had large numbers of people coming here from the sub-continent. How can they comprehend our laws and the restrictions on powers of arrest if they have only been here a short time? Luckily they don't seems to be doing armed security work, with all the dangers to the Public that entails.

 

What about the food delivers of all types? They, too seem to be of a swarthy appearance, and the restrictions on going out have lead to a boom in the number of delivery services. Also, it is the younger generation with their Smartphone culture that readily use these order-online and get it delivered services. Then the young people go out to crowded entertainment locations to spread the virus.

[Marty_d]

I'm glad we're not generalising.

 

But seriously folks, just think about what a bullet we've dodged here- so far.

 

In the USA they've passed a quarter of a MILLION deaths.  When that hits around 300,000, which it will relatively soon, that'll be about 0.1% of the population of the entire country.

 

If we had a similar death rate here we'd have had 25,000 deaths.  As it is we've had 907.  Our death rate is 1/25th of theirs, per capita. Or less than 1/250th in total.

 

For all the chatter from the weirdos, rednecks, whack jobs and "sovereign citizens", as a proportion of the population they're pretty small.  Most of us have done the right thing, accepted the restrictions - and in the case of Victoria they were pretty hard for people - and basically showed common sense, putting the good of the community above our own individual wishes.

 

Even our ineffectual ad-man of a PM did a pretty good job.  So did most premiers, obviously there'll be some dissenting views on that, but it'll be interesting to see the polling for even the polarising ones like Andrews.

 

As for the thing about 65% of people saying they wouldn't have the vaccine, I seriously question that.  Look at the immunisation rates for children in this country, I think it's up around 90-95%.  Once people see the vaccine safely being used I would not be surprised to see similar take-up.

 

I'm bloody proud of Australians, especially you Melbournians.  Well done.

[willedoo]

16 minutes ago, Marty_d said:

So did most premiers, obviously there'll be some dissenting views on that, but it'll be interesting to see the polling for even the polarising ones like Andrews.

It's not good news for the LNP; Dan's on a roll.

 

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8568-roy-morgan-survey-on-voting-intention-and-approvals-in-victoria-november-12-2020-202011111454

[willedoo]

It's interesting watching the vaccine development process. Seems to be still a long while off mass immunizations at this stage. Probably by years end or early next year we might get some idea of the effectiveness and safety of the various vaccines in development. After that, the logistics will be worked out and the various contenders will vie for a slice of the money pie. Some estimates have put the carve up at up to 100 billion US dollars globally.

 

There are estimates in Russia that the vaccine export income will be more than either their annual arms or grain exports.  It doesn't look like any one silver bullet vaccine will win out. Most likely scenario is the Russian and Chinese vaccines dominating most of the second and third world market and the Western developed vaccines dominating the market in the West. We only seem to hear about the big ones in the press but according to the WHO (not the band), there are 48 vaccine candidates in clinical evaluation and 164 in preclinical evaluation.

[Yenn]

Don't compare Dan and his Labor party with Anastasias Labor party. From there handling of the problem there can be no comparison. While we don't necessarily agree with either leader plus we may noot have all the facts, one thing stands out Anastasia knew what she was doing and stuck to her guns. Dan is still wondering what he was doing and if he really did it, or did someone else do it for him. From where I sit in Qld, I am very glad that we don't have Dan for Premier, but not too worried about labor being in power. Our LNP party was found wanting in the recent election, due in no small part to the leader making stupid statements and being backed up by the PM. That was more a kiss of death than a help because it is obvious S Morrison hates Labor.

[old man emu]

You have to remember that the economies of Victoria and Queensland are based on very different things. Queensland's economy is Primary Industry and Service industry (tourism) based, while Victoria's is manufacturing and business administration. That means that the citizens work in completely different environments, which affects the spread of communicable diseases like the 'flu and its nasty cousin COVID.

 

Queensland could maintain its economic activity because a large proportion of the workforce could work at wider spacings. A lot of people could go about their activities without coming into the social distancing boundaries. Not so in Victoria where people often work in close proximity to others in offices and indoor places of work. All Anastasia  had to do was shut the door to non-residents to keep the virus out and maintain a good proportion of the economic activity. Dan ( nor Gladys) could do that. Anastasia's might have been juggling three oranges, but Dan had to juggle a cratefull. 

[Yenn]

Australia has 1089 cases of Covid and 35 deaths per million population. Would you rather live here, or in a country with 60 cases and 3 deaths per million? No it is not the USA, which is beyond worrying about.

Edited November 30, 2020 by Yenn
Spacing

[Jerry_Atrick]

According to John Hopkins University, Australia has a COVID deat rate of 3.63 per 100,000; that makes 0.363 per million... https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality Scoll down the page and there is a table that can be sorted on deaths per 100,000.

 

Remember, there was literally two real mistakes makde - one with the cruise ship and that was very early on; and the Melbourne hotel saga... That is how quikcly things can get out of hand which, by European and definitely US standards, were very minior incidents.

 

Also note a lot of the countries that how lower rates than Australia. At least one is gripped in a civil war, and there are many who's access to health would be patchy at best, so we have no real way to know what the real figures are. I would also wager than not too many get foregin visitors who would have carried the virus to any great extent. Many also, are not where I would like to live regardless of how well they are doing with COVID. Yep, others have done better that are also great countries - NZ, Japan, Taiwan, etc. Australia's not the best, but amongst its peers, it has done a pretty good job...

 

 

[Bruce Tuncks]

You mean 36.3 per million jerry, I know this is just a typo. I like the point about not trusting some countries figures.

[old man emu]

I'd like to point out some bright spots.

 

This year, Schoolies was cancelled in Queensland due to Covid. In previous years we have lost one or two young people to foolish accidents. This year we didn't.

 

Over the past couple of years we have endured the death by drug overdose of young people at music festivals. This year we didn't.

 

Is is correct to say that COVID has saved more young lives than it has taken?

[willedoo]

Moderna is claiming their mRNA vaccine candidate is 94% effective and has applied for emergency use in the U.S.. They're also saying trials show a 100% effectiveness in preventing severe cases. That's bases on 30,000 trial volunteers out of which196 volunteers contracted COVID-19. Of those 196, 185 were given a placebo and 11 were given the vaccine. The 30 severe cases were all in the placebo group which is about 16% of the placebo group with COVID. Of the 11 COVID cases that were  vaccinated, 16% equates to about 1.7 cases. So that means Moderna's claim of 100% effectiveness is based on less than two people getting severe symptoms. Some could argue that the sample is too low to claim any percentage of efficacy.

 

It's no wonder that the WHO when commenting on AstraZeneca’s claims said that they need more than press releases to evaluate the vaccine. The press seem to be talking up the results which probably need a lot more reviewing yet. But the important thing is that they all seem to have high levels of effectiveness and so far, not many side effects.

[Jerry_Atrick]

12 hours ago, Bruce Tuncks said:

You mean 36.3 per million jerry, I know this is just a typo. I like the point about not trusting some countries figures.

I wish it were a typo - complete brain flatulence, I'm afriad.. Maybe confirmation bias crept in...

 

And to think, I recently passed a maths exam...  Glad I wasn't converting kgs to lbs for fuel calculations at the time...

 

[willedoo]

Things are starting to move on the vaccine front with the U.K.'s approval of the Pfizer vaccine and public vaccinations starting soon. The other genetic vaccine by Moderna is also claiming a similar effectiveness of around 95%. It's starting to look like AstraZeneca's monkey vaccine might get left behind with a 70% average effectiveness.

 

Meanwhile, Russia is also planning to start mass vaccinations next week with their Sputnik V human adenovirus based vaccine, also with a claimed 95% effectiveness. It will be voluntary and free to all citizens with front line workers the first to receive it. The Pfizer vaccine is looking like a good bet for Australia at this stage. I think Australia is in a good position at the moment due to our low case numbers and control of the virus. The two countries starting vaccinations next week are in a dire position and need to rush things, whereas by the time we have the volumes of vaccine available here, they should be well tested. With our low numbers we can afford to sit and watch for a while.

[Yenn]

If any country needs to rush things it is the USA. 3 weeks ago they were saying India was getting bad, but now USA has 4 million more cases than India with less than  third of Indias population.

USA has over 20% of world cases with 4.25% of world population. If Trump gets his way every democrat voter will get the virus, that seems to be what he is aiming for.

[Jerry_Atrick]

I wouldn't be so quick with the Pfizer vaccine... What the press don't tell you is that the UK have mooted that they will not hold drug companies liable for problems that develop that weren't picked up in faast track testing and approvals. The EU has come out and criticised the approval process as not being thorough enough (in so many words). Yes, there may be some Brexit brinkmanship in it, but the EU are in just as much a hurry to get something to their population and although they have had some protectionsist shennenigans, I don't think they would in the case of a supranational emergency (well, maybe if they thought they weren't too far off Bauer or someone like that coming up with the goods).

 

My view is that anything coming out of the UK machinery of government or regulation is not to be trusted. After Public Health England's advice on what to do with self-isolation when 3 pupils at our daughter's school contracted the disease was perplexing and it reeked of political direction of keeping the schools open at all cost. We elected to have our daughter self-isolate and then get tested. The school had since had more cases and some teachers had contracted it. Sorry... I don't trust anything that steaming pile of BS that sits in Westminster at the moment... And that goes for both sides of the divide...

 

[Marty_d]

5 hours ago, Yenn said:

If any country needs to rush things it is the USA. 3 weeks ago they were saying India was getting bad, but now USA has 4 million more cases than India with less than  third of Indias population.

USA has over 20% of world cases with 4.25% of world population. If Trump gets his way every democrat voter will get the virus, that seems to be what he is aiming for.

Fortunately, on average the Democrat voters seem to be slightly smarter - they don't crowd into stadiums unprotected during a pandemic...

[red750]

How long before His Orangeness decrees that only Republican voters can get the vaccine, in the hope that Democrat voters catch the disease and die?