ALP Retain QLD - Was it COVID or Anything Else?

[Jerry_Atrick]

As thread title says - was it the incimbent's performance on COVID that played the major role, or was it other things such as economy, services, etc?

 

I have been in and out of an ABC News Live stream of the election - This will be the first fixed 4 year term for the QLD parliament. Assuming it runs that length, this will mean Labour has had power in QLD something like 29 out of 35 years (or some such amount)... Is this not in stark contrast to just about the rest of Australia (maybe SA excepted).. Interesting, too, that Anna P's seat has only been held by a P(sorry, can't spell her name) since its creation in 1992. Also interesting the opposition leader hasn't conceded and Labor has won an absolute majority of the seats....

 

Quite extraordinary.. unthinkable when I first emigrated back in 1996.

 

 

[willedoo]

Yes Jerry, it was a bit unusual for the Premier's team to jump the gun on the speech. The opposition leader started her concession speech a few minutes after the Premier did, so the two of them were delivering speeches at the same time.

 

As far as the covid factor, it had a lot of bearing on the result but my personal opinion is that the government would have been returned even if covid had never been. It would have been a tighter race, no doubt. Queensland being Queensland, there was nothing normal about the results and there was a big variation from seat to seat rather than an overall big trend. For instance, in my area the LNP look like losing two seats to Labor which is almost unthinkable.. It's always been strong LNP country because of the high level of small business owners and self funded retirees. Self funded retirees tend to vote LNP as they think their retirement money is safer, but this time they might have rewarded the government for the border closures.

 

The collapse of the One Nation vote would have hurt the LNP in preferences as well. Adding to that a lot more of the lost One Nation vote flowed to Labor instead of the LNP. The LNP were delivering a lot of contradictory messages on the border closures which didn't help them. They keep slamming the government for closing the border on the CMO's advice, yet say if elected they will follow the CMO's advice. That combined with some unfunded election promises costing multiple tens of billions might have made some voters think they were full of BS.

 

Covid was a factor due to the governments perceived good management of it and the opposition's mishandling of their response to it. But the Premier's personal popularity and respect played into it as well. If you lived interstate and read only the Murdoch press, you would think she's some sort of hated demon, but the reality here is quite different. It's like a two sided coin - Murdoch press on one side, reality on the other.

Edited October 31, 2020 by willedoo

[willedoo]

Reading through some of the results this morning, it's not good news for the LNP. They might lose four seats but the other aspect is the swing against them in a lot of seats. This reduces the margins for the existing seats they hold and will make the next election a lot more difficult than this one. The LNP are now in a position where the only chance of winning the next election is if the current government completely stuffs up resulting in a landslide against them.

[Yenn]

The older Queenslanders were obviously going to vote Labor. The pandemic has hardly affected them and in some cases they are better off with all the handouts they got. Younger voters were affected, jobs were lost, but they could see how much worse off people in Victoria were and in fact still are. Deb Frecklewherever said a few silly things in the lead up to the election and they were not forgotten, plus they tried to use Campbell Newman as a campaigner and that went down like a lead balloon. One great potcome was the demise of Jackie Trad who lost her seat to the Greens. It was declared that she had not committed any crime, but have you ever heard of a politician being found committing any crime. Remember Joh. Bond was convicted of bribeing him, but he was never convicted of being bribed.

I have heard it said that the pandemic played into the hands of incumbent pollies, but I wonder what would happen if Victoria had an election now. Would the electorate b so happy that he delivered them from an ever increasing no of cases that they would vote him in again. Rather like religion when the believers praise God for delivering them from an act of god.

[willedoo]

Covid was definitely an election factor but Campbell Newman is making a bit of sense for a change. He's telling the LNP to wake up and stop blaming covid, pointing out the fact that LNP polling was well down in the 30's of primary vote before covid came along. After losing 11 out of the last 12 elections, I'm sceptical of the LNP having enough talent to remake themselves into a viable alternative government. Maybe splitting back to a two party coalition is not such a bad idea after all.

[Yenn]

Maybe the fat fool had an influence on the result. Clive Palmer made a lot of fuss about how bad Labor was and everyone could see he was wrong, so they voted as he suggested they shouldn't.

I don't think LNP got any help from Palmer, or Scott Morrison or Campbell Newman.

[Marty_d]

Yeah but the fat fool had the impact he wanted on Labor in the last federal election.

[willedoo]

6 hours ago, Yenn said:

I don't think LNP got any help from Palmer, or Scott Morrison or Campbell Newman.

or themselves; the Queensland LNP are their own worst enemies. Time will tell if they finally figure out why they've lost 11 out of the last 12 elections. If they're still blaming Covid in four years time, it will be 12 out 13.

Edited November 2, 2020 by willedoo

[onetrack]

The LNP in Qld have done the same as the Liberal Party in W.A. - relegated themselves to a position of irrelevance, simply because they have constantly ignored the electors and their wishes, and kowtowed to big business and lobby groups.

 

And I'm actually thrilled that the idiots who voted for Palmer last time have seen through the fat fools BS and diatribe. Palmer only lives for one thing - more money for Clive Palmer. He's a bigger BS-artist than Trump.

 

In W.A., Palmer has turned the entire W.A. Govt, and 98% of the States population against himself. His BS lawsuits, trying to claim $30B from the W.A. Govt for a mining project that was knocked back, and suing Govt MP's and Mark McGowan for defamation, is typical of his bully-boy thug tactics.

And I'm glad McGowan has counter-sued for defamation, because Palmers outbursts against McGowan are just outrageous, and a pack of lies.

McGowan and the W.A. A-G, John Quigley (a lawyer) are feeding it back to Fat Boy in spades, and Palmer will waste every single cent he spends in W.A. early next year, trying to win over the W.A. voters. I reckon he won't even get 10% of the votes in W.A. that he got in this Qld election.

 

McGowan has the support of 90% of West Aussies in recent polls, it's an unheard-of level of support for a pollie or a Premier.

[Yenn]

After hearing Deb Frecklington concede victory to Anastasia, where i thought she did just about all she could to look good in defeat and stressed that she would continue to lead the LNP, we hear today that she has resigned as leader, wanting family time. That was a big turnaround and it was obvious that she would have a hard time leading, so why did she say she would continue and then give up. It shows how little thought she put into the process and that as also apparent from her spruiking before the election.

Labor only had to do as the health experts advised and they could not be faulted, any problems were the fault of the advisers and if as happened it all went well, the reason was Labor did the right thing. What you call a win, win situation.

[facthunter]

It's a must do after a defeat at elections. Leadership is spilled almost automatically. She had been referred by her own team for some sin or other. not long ago. Her own electorate support wasn't high either as I recall. She was doing a "bluff" job saying she would remain as leader .. It really meant nothing.. Nev

[willedoo]

It was highly unusual for her to say she would continue on in the concession speech. I think she might have got carried away in the moment and didn't think it through, probably with a lot of her supporters at the venue urging her to stay. A heat of the moment thing.

[old man emu]

4 hours ago, Yenn said:

we hear today that she has resigned as leader, wanting family time.

"Wanting family time" now means "If I don't get out now, my kids will be orphans."

 

These people go into political careers and put everything into getting themselves into positions from which they can benefit. There's nothing left for their families in these early years. When the fundament hits the air circulator and their misdeeds are exposed, they suddenly have pangs of remorse for not being the parent they should have been. Then they try to get sympathy by saying that they are discarding their careers for family duty.

 

I bet any politician who drops out on Friday to have family time is busy on Monday chasing a job where they can utilise the network they created while in politics.

 

 

[Yenn]

Willedoo. That was the problem with her from way back. She opened her mouth without thinking. At least Queenslanders recognised the problem and voted accordingly.