The Trump Presidency - an analysis

[willedoo]

On 31/01/2021 at 7:02 PM, Old Koreelah said:

What happens next? America has over-used its dollar power to manipulate trade and sanction any country which displeases it. Caught in the crossfire are ordinary people in friendly countries whose only crime was to trade with a country which stood up to America.

Lots of countries would like to get out of the US dollar payment system; Russia and China are reported to be developing a crypto backed by gold.

A lot of countries are trying to break the chains of the petrodollar but it will be a gradual thing and take a long time. Measures have started already, like the crypto plan. All the BRICS nations are talking about the possibility of that one and BRICS will no doubt grow in membership over time. Those countries between them represent a big slab of the world economy.

 

In the immediate recent years, Russia has sold off a lot of USD and increased their physical gold holdings significantly. To replace investment in the petrodollar, they've increased their investments in the Euro. Add to that China and Russia are gradually increasing their trade deals settled in their own currencies. China has to go slow as a lot of it's wealth is in US debt and to dump the dollar too quick would be shooting themselves in the foot. One thing of note is that countries on the other side of the fence to the U.S. are investing in physical gold and not paper gold. They're not silly.

 

If the U.S. dollar slips to #3 currency, I'd say they would be stuffed and the world would change dramatically. The Americans enjoy world supremacy simply because of the power of their currency and the weapons funded by it. The world being tied to the U.S. Dollar has enabled the U.S. to weaponise their currency via sanctions. Take away the supremacy of the dollar and their economic sanctions are not effective. Then all they have left to bargain with is their military force. As the dollar goes down, so does the ability to fund the military. The end game is they lose military and economic supremacy. Where would that leave us? Once Daddy loses his job, we're stuck holding his shirt tails and sucking our thumb.

[facthunter]

Their dollar has enabled them to have a superior way of life at a big discount. Capitalism at work as an enslaver and replacement for colonialisation.. Nev

[old man emu]

19 hours ago, willedoo said:

If the U.S. dollar slips to #3 currency, I'd say they would be stuffed and the world would change dramatically.

Another example of an "empire" failing from within.

 

History repeats itself. This is why Japan has come out of the destruction of its Empire so well. The Japanese way of thinking is organic. It's not "every man for himself", it's "each man for the whole". And since the Nation acts like an organism, it is able to plan past the needs of the current generation to provide benefits for its descendants. The Western mentality is "Me. First; last, and every other bloody time".

 

If History teaches us anything, then the Chinese system should fail within the next 20 years, but it will be replaced by a similar organism to the Japanese. 

[Old Koreelah]

2 hours ago, old man emu said:

Another example of an "empire" failing from within.

 

History repeats itself. This is why Japan has come out of the destruction of its Empire so well. The Japanese way of thinking is organic. It's not "every man for himself", it's "each man for the whole"...

I fear that most Americans cannot change their mindset quickly enough to adapt to the inevitable loss of American supremacy. The greedy elite are getting richer while millions displaced by technological and economic change are fertile ground for the blame game that got Trump elected. Too many of them have drifted so far to the right that some form of civil war is a bigger risk to the USA than any external threat.

If Biden can hold it all together thru the next four years he’ll join the ranks of great leaders like Lincoln and FDR.

[old man emu]

1 hour ago, Old Koreelah said:

some form of civil war is a bigger risk to the USA than any external threat

So many empires are destroyed from within. It is only after the destruction of internal wars that foreign powers walk in, virtually unopposed.

[Yenn]

A log way from J F Ks "Think not what your country can do for you" speech.

It is happening all over the world, just think back a few years and you will see a big change in our own outlook on life.

Everyone seems to be looking to get as much as they possibly can for nothing. If you go against the general run and say I don't want handouts, because they only cause higher taxes, people think you are mad.

Just look at the handouts to pensioners since the start of the Covid problem. Good for some who are in real difficulty, but not necessary for some, but we didn't have any say in it, couldn't even decline it.

[pmccarthy]

When  we were growing up we were told not to put yourself forward, not to make a spectacle of yourself, not to ask for or expect handouts. I think my kids are OK (40 to 50 age group) but the next generation down seems to be living on benefits and taking selfies.

[nomadpete]

My kids might be a tad younger than yours. They can't be convinced that there's an advantage in buying a home. At my age, it should be obvious - no income. How would I pay rent if I didn't own my home?

[spacesailor]

How do you pay the $ thousands, that Home owner,s have to pay annually? .

Rates , water , power, gas, and that never ending, insurance !, for building &  contents, inside the Home.

spacesailor

[facthunter]

There MUST be more to life than paying off a shitty house alongside a lot of other shitty houses and endless cars which you turn over every 3 years  for 1/2 price all of which look much the same. People don't OWN houses in Europe like they do here and life goes on.  IF you pay rent that's all you pay bar electricity. Invest in something else. The land is the major VALUE. The House is obsolete  in 40 years. Not portable and you lose a packet every time you sell with taxes and charges.  Rent and it's trashed and you can't get them out.  Nev

[nomadpete]

As a home owner I only pay rates ($800pa) and structure insurance ($500pa)

 

That's $25 per week.

Rent for similar home = $$600 per week.

 

In later life that's a game changer.

[nomadpete]

I once had a friend who scoffed at my parents for owning their little home. She'd say things like 'Why would you want all the stress of owning your home, what with all the stress and expense of maintenance.'

Many years later, she couldn't afford to rent and was eventually reduced to living in a hut on the driveway of a Sydney lawyer's country escape home, in return for keeping an eye on their mansion whilst they were away. This was only a couple of years ago.

 

Initially renting is cheaper than buying but after a couple of years, the tables turn and it's cheaper to own. As long as you repay the mortgage a bit quicker than the bank asks (when I was young, I paid ten dollars a week extra), owning is cheaper in the long run. And when you retire, you aren't paying rent.

Edited February 3, 2021 by nomadpete
Autocorrect got me again

[spacesailor]

Blame those Councils AGAIN !.

GREEDY B,s put your rates up just to force you out, and the big end of town demolishes your family home to build  giant skyscrapers for imigrants,  paying cheap rent, working for peanuts, with that council bending over backwards to to get a NAME for themselves.

It,s now happening in my " low density residential  area " 

Now " medium density Mixed business ".

And, the first high rise is pushing past all the residents objections, with councils help.

Our first long time resident has sold out, ( he is next door to the development. ).

The house is worth about ( l,m not good at maths ) 10 times it,s purchase price.

SO is a good investment.

spacesailor

 

[willedoo]

A court in Iraq has issued an arrest warrant for Trump charged with the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

[willedoo]

Interesting to see the ratings figures for the U.S. cable news networks since his Orangeness has gone. The left leaning networks have suffered the most with CNN the worst hit, dropping 44%. MSNBC is down around 20%. Murdoch's right wing Fox News has got off lightly at around 5%.

 

From those figures, I can only guess that left leaning anti-Trumpers were hungry for any bad Trump news to feed their hatred of him and now that he's gone there's not much reason to tune in. On the other hand, Fox would have a steadier, rusted on audience. Just goes to show that bad news sells and is the better business model for the media.

 

https://variety.com/vip/cnn-primetime-ratings-fall-post-trump-1234897869/

Edited February 4, 2021 by willedoo

[Yenn]

Brietbart are still doing OK

[willedoo]

20 minutes ago, Yenn said:

Brietbart are still doing OK

No matter what happens, the comedy channels always do ok.

[octave]

On 03/02/2021 at 3:00 PM, pmccarthy said:

When  we were growing up we were told not to put yourself forward, not to make a spectacle of yourself, not to ask for or expect handouts. I think my kids are OK (40 to 50 age group) but the next generation down seems to be living on benefits and taking selfies.

 Every generation since the dawn of time has fallen into the trap of believing they are the last worthy generation.  I really loathe stereotypes  such as "millennials" as well as  "boomers"    To say that millennials are living on handouts and spend their time taking selfies is a little over top I think.  If we take millennials as being those born between 81 and 96 (so 24-39), do we not get looked after by people this age when we go to hospital?  Go down the you local military base and see if you can find an 24 to 39 year olds?     Who flies our aircraft when we fly interstate or overseas? 

 

For the last 20 years I have worked mainly with people in their mid twenties.  Just about all of them have been impressive, well educated and enthusiastic. Most of these people were doing their masters in music and or education and they were working to support themselves while they study.   My generation (I am about to turn 59) got free tertiary education. In my 20s I was able to buy a house, I did not have a HECs debt to pay first. 

 

Every generation faces different challenges.   Every generation has different priorities and this may be confusing to older generations but this has always been the case.   

 

Do people really and truly think that the majority of people between 24 and 39 spending their days living of benefits and taking selfies?  Look around you.

 

Sorry bit of a rant but stereotyping (in either direction) is a pet hate of mine.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by octave

[Marty_d]

Agree 100% Octave.

 

I work with people in their 20's who are highly intelligent, motivated and confident.  

I don't know what these supposed "handouts" are, besides free tertiary education someone who was in their 20's in 1980 could buy a house for around $36,000 in Hobart, while the average salary was $12,500 - so a house cost less than 3 years salary.  Fast forward to 2020 and your median Hobart house price is $560,000 while average Tasmanian salary is $71,000, so a house now costs almost 8 years of salary.

[pmccarthy]

Fair cop, I don't disagree. 

[nomadpete]

Marty, you are not comparing apples with apples there.

 

The first new home I bought (Brisbane) was priced at $24,000. Current homes seem to start at about $480k now. Which seems to support your comparison.

BUT

That first home, in 1976, was about 76 sq Mtrs, on a 16 perch allotment. It was 3 bedroom, one bathroom. Highset so there was room to park a car in the open uunderneath. I couldn't afford the furniture, so made do with packing crate style ,as most people did when starting out. My take home wage was around $7500pa as a qualified tradesman. Factor of 3.2 Years earnings.

 

Current new homes are usually four bedroom, three bathrooms, two car garage with electric roller doors, theatre room, air conditioning, decks for outdoor living, landscaping and double the floor area of my starter home. The take home wage of a tradesman is now around $80,000. Factor of 5.6 Years earnings. But it is twice the house!

 

I think that if a simple 3 bedroom house was costed out ( nobody seems to build them now), it might come in at half the price of the current house price. This supports the view that the 20  - 30 year Olds have much higher expectations than I did at that age. Maybe they are more privileged than I was? Or did I just live better within my means?

 

So, it is not a fair comparison of affordability.

 

PS, our youngest has recently bought a 2 bedroom starter home for $200,000. He is recently qualified as a tradie, earning about $100k pa. (In the hand). Although not a new build, it is nevertheless possible to buy a livable dwelling for two years earnings! And because he has a smaller mortgage than most, he will own it much sooner than most.

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by nomadpete
big fingers, small screen

[Bruce Tuncks]

My next-door neighbor built himself a small 3 bedroom house and I reckon it was a bad investment. It will be hard to sell when the time comes. It did not save him much and it is the land price which has grown the most.

Where my daughter lived in a Melbourne suburb, it was common to see an old house demolished. It had been bought only for the land.  For about 700,000 dollars.

Far from blaming the younger generations, I reckon they have been ripped off by the oldies. That land cost nothing much to start with.  

 

[old man emu]

1 hour ago, nomadpete said:

our youngest has recently bought a 2 bedroom starter home for $200,000. He is recently qualified as a tradie, earning about $100k pa. (In the hand). Although not a new build, it is nevertheless possible to buy a livable dwelling for two years earnings! And because he has a smaller mortgage than most, he will own it much sooner than most.

When you are playing Monopoly, champion player Bjørn Halvard Knappskog said that one of the biggest mistakes people make is "turning their noses up" at smaller properties. Buying everything in sight will help you have leverage options later on.

 

https://www.insider.com/monopoly-tips-how-to-win-2018-1

[nomadpete]

I'm not blaming anyone. Blame is such a waste of time.

 

I'm just pointing out that housing affordability depends, in part, on the balance between income and expectations. Unfortunately many folk forget to add.... Balance between desires and needs.

 

IE, we all need a roof over our heads but we don't need a theatre room and a separate bathroom for every occupant. But if our income has enough extra in it to have a theatre room and four bathrooms, that's fine. I just don't like people making out they are hard done by when they try to buy a Rolls Royce while they are on a Morris Minor budget.

 

 

[octave]

NomadPete I would suggest that there would that properties at $200 000 are extremely rare and that a wage for a younger person of $100 000 is also not the norm.  Whilst it may be possible to find the occasional property at that price the property has to also be within travel distance of a secure job. The affordability of properties verses wages is something that is measured. 

 

The affordability of houses or units  is more than just house prices verses wages, we must also take into account the general cost of living, electricity, rates etc.  And of course the big one for younger people HECS.  Many younger people I know are not keen to commit to another large loan until they have paid off their HECS debt.

 

I agree that many new houses built today are large but are these large houses being bought by by 20 something year-olds? 

   

I believe I had it quite easy when I built my first house.  My wife and I were on pretty much the average wage and we were able to buy a half acre block and build a substantial house.    Every era has its challenges though, when I built my house interest rates were 17% tempered a little by the fact that we obtained half of the money from a defence home loan which was at a lower rate and my wife worked at a bank so we got a slightly lower rate. Another advantage was that at the time wages were not stagnant as they are now.

 

I guess we could crunch all the numbers and work out whether it is easier or harder now but either way I don't think  it says that todays younger people are less worthy than we were.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by octave