Australian Federal Election 2022

[kgwilson]

It looks like Frydenburg is gone.  LNP 51, ALP 71 & 10 others at the moment. It's a mess.

[Jerry_Atrick]

And listening to his speech, he is a sore loser.. Rather than congratulate the newly elected and wish them the best in governing for all Australians,, it is how good he has done and how bad they will do..

[willedoo]

8 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Hopefully the LNP will regroup to be a party who ultimately believes in bettering Australia rather than vested interests and becomes a viable oppostiion.

Wishful thinking, Jerry, good luck with that one. With Morrison and Frydenberg gone, Voldemort will most likely be their next leader.

[onetrack]

It's a Labor rout. All the LNP lying and pork-barrelling, and sucking up to mates in big business, has come home to roost on the LNP. In W.A., Labor has won 3 LNP seats no-one ever expected them to win.

Anthony Albanese is our new PM, and I'm glad Palmer and his lying and truth twisting got nowhere. Now, all I need to see is Palmer lose all his defamation cases against McGowan and Quigley.

Christian Porter has lost his good Liberal seat, no doubt thanks to his scurrilous behaviour.

 

It was always reckoned that the W.A. seats would be where the election was decided, and the swing to Labor in W.A. was around 10%. I reckon a lot of wage earners are hoping Labor will redress the loss in earning power of wages over the last 3 or 4 years. Inflation is officially running at 3.5%, but wages are only increasing 1% annually. It's time for a catch-up to massive business profits.

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by onetrack

[kgwilson]

I think now that with an integrity commission (hopefully with teeth) a certainty, climate change a major issue, and better wage and conditions for those on lower incomes as well as health, aged care and education back on the agenda we will see a government with far more compassion and accountability. I also hope that pork barrelling can be put to death as well and the integrity laws should make sure of this. I think now the majority have finally worked out that the LNP is corrupt & fiscally irresponsible. How many hospitals and health care services could we have got for the 5.5 billion they wasted on a cancelled submarine scheme for example?

 

The Greens and Teal independents will support most of this IMO and after the honeymoon will do their best to "keep the bastards honest". The other thing is I really hope they can clean up the toxic culture in Canberra with what looks like quite a few more females in the mix.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Just listenend to SFM's concession speech, which, until he started lying about how much he has bolstered defence, was gracious in defeat..  He has also announced his intention to resign..

 

[willedoo]

2 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

The LNP fella on the ABC panel should be close to their leader - he does seem a lot more level headed...

I agree, Jerry. Simon Birmingham would be the only decent option if they want a shot at the next election. Or if they want to shoot themselves in both feet, there's always Dutton.

[onetrack]

The most glorious part of the election to me, is seeing Clive Palmer win exactly zero seats, despite spending something like $100M, and conning 400,000 dickheads to vote for him!

And the same goes for Hanson and her irrelevant followers. One Nation managed to increase their vote percentage by around 2% - but they still didn't win a seat!

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results/party-totals

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by onetrack

[pmccarthy]

No mo Scomo!

[Jerry_Atrick]

No doubt... the next time the LNP get in, there will a job for the boys for SFM...

 

3 hours ago, onetrack said:

The most glorious part of the election to me, is seeing Clive Palmer win exactly zero seats, despite spending something like $100M, and conning 400,000 dickheads to vote for him!

And the same goes for Hanson and her irrelevant followers. One Nation managed to increase their vote percentage by around 2% - but they still didn't win a seat!

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2022/results/party-totals

 

The ON vote increase doesn't tell the whole story. While ON will see it as somewhat of a victory, the ABC's election analyst made the point that their overall vote was up because of all of those ghost candidates standing where ON wasn't standing before, while their vote was significantly down in the seats where they did stand last time, so, it should give them some cause for concern. It was good to see the Craig Kelly lose his seat, but I fear for > 4% of the population supporting his party.

 

3 hours ago, willedoo said:

I agree, Jerry. Simon Birmingham would be the only decent option if they want a shot at the next election. Or if they want to shoot themselves in both feet, there's always Dutton.

The good oil has it that Dutton is most likely to succeed SFM. Given where the LNP is, and who is left in the parliamentary party, this is to be expected. However, it gives the LNP time to, if they have any integrity, have a cathartic review. This would then allow them time to regroup and hopefully reform themselves so someone like Birmingham can have a more senior role. The risk is, that Albo's team secrew things up, or the global headwinds outside of their control result in economic disaster, so that the LNP in their current form look viable again.

 

In the wrap up, Birmingham made a good point when both he and Plebuszuck (sp?) were asked about the quality of the mandate.. With 1 in 3 primary votes that Labor was able to attract, and a minority of seats, it is hardly a strong mandate. The Greens look set to be big winners on the night. Yes, the Teals have done well, but are still independents. The Greens, as a party, are always stuck with a stigma. They now have 3 seats and lead in Brisbane. If they can take 4 seats, they increase their total number of seats by 400%.

 

But I think Birmingham missed a point, and the ABC were too acquiescent to make it. It was clear the electorate didn't hand Labor a clear mandate, but moderateed it with the Teals and the Greens. Birmingham categorised the cause for the LNP defeat as being out of touch, while the electorate not handing Albanese a decisive victory as being a question of competence. He went on to cite the LNP's track record of delivery - including how well they handled COVID in the end. Well, I can't recall teh federal government doing that much, and sadly, the ABC journos (nor Plebeszeck) brought it up. Bad form, ABC.

 

I actually think the big loser out of this is Labor. Firstly, they could never hope to take the seats the Teals have taken. But, this election was theirs for the taking and now at best it will be a minority government; at worst it will be a coalitiion for them. They had a 0.2 swing against them (so howe that translated into more seats, I am not sure) and a drop of 2.9% of the primary vote. That is not good when as their main competitor really had a bad night dropping 24 seats so far, which is about 13% of the seats in the lower house. Labor's Liberal-esque shenannigans in Fowler may cost them.

 

 

And in the Senate, the LNP look to end up with a total of 30 seats, against the ALP 25, and then Greens 12. For this election, the ALP will only win 1 more than the LNP...

I see some fractiuous times ahead for the ALP.

Edited May 21, 2022 by Jerry_Atrick

[nomadpete]

You are probably getting some well earned rest after your election marathon.

 

The big question remains.

 

After all your in depth analysis (and thank you for that), what is the prognosis? When are you arriving? We still make some nice, affordable reds, you know.

[onetrack]

Yes, I have to agree, Labor could have done better. The big swing was to the Independents and the Greens. The LNP lost 20 seats, but the Independents picked up 11 seats, and the Greens picked up 4 seats - so the net gain for Labor is only 5 seats, which should be cause for great concern for them.

 

I really shouldn't gloat, but I absolutely relish that donkey Craig Kelly getting his arse handed to him on a plate, with the loss of his seat.

[nomadpete]

The big plus for government, is that we have more independants involved. Maybe the new incumbants can get things happening without the major opposition party constantly blocking decisions just because their policy is to oppose.

Maybe, hopefully, parliamentary debate will be allowed without constant censure motions.

Maybe democracy will begin to function.

 

[kgwilson]

Something that I was not aware of is that Albanese, as leader of the house in the last Labor minority government more than anyone else made the government work according to Laura Tingle the ABCs Political commentator.

 

"He is a superb negotiator and coalition builder: Skills that will be crucial whatever the final numbers. And that sets the culture for his government. His Leader of the House, Tony Burke, is an equally wily negotiator.

 

There are multiple options for Labor if it wishes to negotiate on particular issues, and significantly a path through roadblocks that have held Australia back for a decade on climate change.

 

A proper integrity commission looms which could help re-establish some sense of probity in government and trust from voters. And an indigenous Voice to Parliament may also finally make progress.

 

It's the most transformative election you can imagine: Both in the country and in the way we govern ourselves."

[facthunter]

Morrison "Junked" respect for the Parliament by having it sit a record low number of days and the "CABINET" Invisibled" the Federal Opposition on purpose. Question Time was a gut wrenching farce that most could not bear to watch, and it's been deterorating since T Abot. This resulted in the emergence of the TEAL Candidates which were all against Lib seats based on Integrity ( No ICAC) and action for global warming. Another big factor was Morrison's appalling lack of empathy with women.  Frydenburg lost a lot in Victoria for lobbing hand grenades at Victoria, where Kooyong is..  It's considered the Electorate of LEADERS and Josh definitely aspired to be PM, no doubt about that.. This election may provide a much needed reset  for both major Parties. The LNP "arangement" is never disclosed to the public and was the "Tail wagging the Dog" in matters of Climate.  Nev

[red750]

Call me ignorant if you like, but please explain this. If the government does not provide the facilities and infrastructure required, it is accused of failing in it's duty, but if it does, it is accused of pork barrelling.

 

[facthunter]

I think you could work it out by yourself. Giving taxpayer  money to people or organisations that are your donors for instance, is corruption. There are established ways of applying for grants. Nev

[willedoo]

10 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

They had a 0.2 swing against them (so how that translated into more seats, I am not sure)

Preferences from a large Green vote.

[kgwilson]

The Pork Barrelling related to government grants not government facilities and infrastructure. The process of application has a range of criteria and points are given where the application meets these. Once the department has provided the list of recommendations to the minister they should be ticked off in order of priority.

 

BUT this didn't happen. Remember the Sports Rorts saga (colour coded applications) when Bridget Mckenzie chose to ignore the recommendations and give the money to sports clubs in marginal LNP seats almost exclusively. She resigned & then got her job back when Barnaby got the Nationals leadership back.

 

Here is a list of the Morrison Government "Snouts in the Trough" back in 2019.

 

https://www.crikey.com.au/2021/06/30/golden-age-pork-barrelling-list-snouts-trough/

 

It also extended to the NSW LNP government and eventually led to Gladys Berejiklians downfall. She even boasted that she thought it was OK saying every government does it. Wrong, it is not OK & her successor has distanced himself from such comments.

[willedoo]

I must have missed something on election night and have been trying to figure out what was historic about Labor's win. Albo, in his speech to the party faithful, said Labor made history on the night. After he left, the ABC journo covering the venue then said it was an historic night for Labor.

 

I know they've won elections before, so that's not historic. Ditto for governing with a minority. The only way I can see they made history is by winning government with a record low primary vote. Is that it, or is there some other great part of history I missed?

[willedoo]

It would be a good thing if the Greens made implementing some of their better policy a condition of support for the Labor government (if it doesn't get a majority). The one I like is including dental in Medicare. I don't think anyone seriously expects free and expensive cosmetic work, but it would be nice if pensioners and low income people could get the holes in their teeth filled. We are a so called affluent nation of people with bad teeth.

 

In Queensland, the waiting list for non urgent work at the free hospital dental clinics is at least two years. To get seen to straight away, you have to meet the criteria of being an urgent case, eg: toothache that prevents sleep. Under the old system, you could get the work done at the dental hospital. They also served as a training role for new student dentists under supervision of a fully qualified and experienced dentist. As a result, they would take the time to do a good job, and try to save the tooth where possible, in the process providing valuable training for the student.

 

That's now changed and has been farmed out to private dentists. The hospital gives you a voucher for $260 to go to a private dentist on a list of participating dentists. We all know how much you get from a dentist for $260. They can't get the pliers out quick enough. It's a crook system.

[willedoo]

The Tamil family from Biloela will be happy.

https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/election-2022-tamil-asylum-seeker-family-to-return-to-biloela-after-labor-win-c-6891441

[Marty_d]

Well, I'm bloody relieved.  I don't even care about Labor winning majority (I reckon democracy works better if the government HAS to deal with the cross bench) and while there's a lot being made of Labor not doing all that well, could I just remind everyone that they are 1 party, where the LNP is actually 2.  Given that all the Nationals actually kept their seats, that means that all the seats the LNP lost were from the Liberal party, so compare their current size to Labor.

 

Given that the teal independents were mostly running on climate policy, and the Greens have increased their share, means that the primary focus should be on sensible carbon reduction policies.  This is Labor's chance to negotiate and get things right - as kg pointed out with the ABC story, they have the skills to negotiate so if they use them they will be able to improve the country.

 

The only downside from this election is that Voldemort retained his seat and in fact may get the leadership of the LNP.  I see him as a destructive force much like Abbott so really not looking forward to hearing his sound bites.

 

But yes Craig Kelly getting the bum's rush has immediately increased the average IQ of Parliament, and the other fat moron spending $100 million or however much it was for absolutely no benefit is just gold.

[willedoo]

As far as Dutton goes, for the next three years, who really cares. Best case scenario, his margin is now down low enough to get the boot next time. That's assuming Labor do a good job and get re-elected next time, and pick up a few more seats. If he becomes leader of the opposition and they are polling badly in a couple of years time, he might also fall victim to musical chairs.

[willedoo]

Only my opinion, but I don't think Australia could have a better, smarter foreign minister than Penny Wong. I've long thought she would be the obvious PM choice if she was in the lower house.