Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

It's been said that these Russian 'Turtle' tanks are becoming more common. It severely restricts turret movement so they must be getting concerned about their tank losses.

 

[red750]

[willedoo]

Putler won't be pleased. One of his two NATO lapdogs has been shot in an assassination attempt. Pro Russian Slovakian PM Robert Fico was shot in the stomach with the injuries described as life threatening. I doubt anyone in Ukraine will shed a tear. Fico had vowed to block Ukraine from joining NATO, stopped all military aid to Ukraine when he was elected last year and holds the view that Ukraine is not an independent and sovereign country. He has also been accused of repeating Kremlin claims that the war was started by Ukrainian Nazis. This will certainly shake his Siamese twin Viktor Orban in Hungary.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-05-15/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-shot/103853772

[willedoo]

It's hard to know what to read into putler's reshuffle of positions of those in his close circle. Sergei Shoigu has been removed as defence minister, being replaced by an economist. Some commentary sees this as a recognition by putler that they need to tighten up manufacturing and supply for a long extended war. Previous to Shoigu being dismissed from the defence minister's job, his second in command was arrested on corruption charges. Possibly putin thinks a civilian economist can get a handle on the waste, theft, and manufacturing problems in the defence materiel sector.

 

Security chief Nikolai Patrushev has also been relieved of his post. He's the one most talked about as a successor to putin. The talk has been that Shoigu will take over his job. That makes sense for putin as Shoigu is a long trusted associate. Perhaps putin thinks having Shoigu overseeing the security branch will prevent Patrushev plotting against him. I haven't seen any mention of Patrushev's possible new position. From his point of view, probably as far away from the window as possible.

[facthunter]

Life is so hard for an absolute DICKtator.. Great fighter when HE can't be harmed and doesn't CARE how many DIE as long as it's not HIM.. Nev

[willedoo]

Belgium is supplying 30 F-16s to Ukraine by the end of the year. Added to the F-16s from the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway, the total fleet number will rise to 85. President Zelensky's plane was escorted in Belgium by Ukrainian pilots flying F-16s so some of them are at the stage of flying missions.

[red750]

Vladimir Putin warns of global conflict
Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West on Tuesday that NATO members in Europe were playing with fire by proposing to let Ukraine use Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia, which he said could trigger a global conflict.

 

More than two years into the deadliest land war in Europe since World War Two, Putin has increasingly spoken of the risk of a much broader global conflict as the West grapples with what to do about the advance of Russian troops in Ukraine.

 

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told The Economist that alliance members should let Ukraine strike deep into Russia with Western weapons, a view supported by some NATO members but not by the United States.

 

"Constant escalation can lead to serious consequences," Putin told reporters in Tashkent. "If these serious consequences occur in Europe, how will the United States behave, bearing in mind our parity in the field of strategic weapons?"

 

"It's hard to say - do they want a global conflict?"

[willedoo]

[nomadpete]

5 hours ago, red750 said:

Putin warned the West on Tuesday that NATO members in Europe were playing with fire by proposing to let Ukraine use Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia, which he said could trigger a global conflict.

Of course he would say that. If NATO did permit Ukraine to defend against glide bombs launched fron within Russian territory,  Putin would be defeated.

[nomadpete]

5 hours ago, red750 said:

Putin has increasingly spoken of the risk of a much broader global conflict as the West grapples with what to do about the advance of Russian troops in Ukraine

Putin has also said that this is already a 'defacto' conflict between Russia sn the rest of the world.

 

Isn't it already a (half hearted) global conflict?

 

There is no rational reason for the 'west' ( the rest of the world) to prevent Ukraine from bringing down bombers that haven't yet left Russia, but are launching bombs to kill civillians in Ukraine.

[kgwilson]

Much of Russias nuclear arsenal is very old and many doubt that their ICBMs will even work. The dilema is that who wants to test the theory?

[Litespeed]

He would never use them, he knows it's total death to all.

 

Like any bully he will do anything and say anything until put on his arse.

 

Ukraine should be given everything NATO has to stop the Russian's inside Russia.

[facthunter]

Should be even rules for BOTH sides. Pootain is a bully with a glass jaw. whose word is worth NOTHING.  Nev

[willedoo]

Putler is getting desperate but as always is trying to hide the fact and put on a fake veneer of confidence. They are currently trying extensive meat assaults in the Kharkiv region to draw Ukrainian troops away from southern areas. The only problem is the Russians don't have the ability to fight effectively on multiple fronts. Despite small losses of territory further south and in the Kharkiv region, the Ukrainians are holding the line and continuing to deplete the Russian assets.

 

My guess is that putler can see the writing on the wall as more needed Western supplied equipment is coming on line. Things don't happen right now but things like the F-16s, now totaling 85 when delivered and operational, will make a big difference. Another example is Sweden pledging two ASC-890 Early Warning Aircraft to Ukraine. This will give Ukraine eyes in the sky for 200 to 300 klm into Russia as well as the battle zone. For context, Ukraine will have one third the number of AWACS as Russia due to recent losses of Russian AWACS. Another important milestone is Ukraine getting the green light from France and Britain to use long range missiles to strike military targets within Russia. And good on French president Macron for facing up to reality and getting with the programme. He's even badgered Germany's weak, dithering, Kremlin fearing Scholz into agreeing. Scholz has had to be dragged kicking and screaming into support for Ukraine, but he's finally got on the bus with the others and that's a good thing.

 

Another issue for putler is that much needed artillery shells have arrived and Ukraine now has adequate ammunition to match the Russians. It will still take time, but Ukraine's ducks are slowly starting to line up in a row. For putler, he probably has two chances. One is a breakthrough of the lines and gaining a significant amount of new territory before negotiating a settlement that lets him keep it. The other is to negotiate to keep what he has now as the first scenario is not likely. He knows his only chance of keeping some of his lollies is a negotiated settlement which Ukraine would only agree to if they were desperate. putin thinks he can outlast Ukraine and their Western backers, but if the West continues what they've done recently, then maybe total or near total victory will be possible for Ukraine.

 

Even if putler is eventually forced into a settlement that gives them only a similar amount of territory to that which they started the war with, he would be in trouble at home. Even with all the state propaganda and a brainwashed general population, surely he would start to be seen as a failure who almost destroyed his country for little net gain.

[willedoo]

The ASC-890 AWACS aircraft Sweden is supplying to Ukraine is based on the turboprop Saab 340, noticeably smaller than the US and Russian Boeing and Ilyushin AWACS.

 

[facthunter]

They've been in service for ages.  Nev

[facthunter]

The Basic Plane has. Nev

[willedoo]

Sweden is also giving Ukraine all their Pansarbandvagn 302 infantry fighting vehicles, about 170 of them. Other supplies from Sweden are AMRAAM air to air missiles.

 

[nomadpete]

Well that makes the Saab a smaller target. But are they any good at detecting 'incoming!'

Edited May 31 by nomadpete

[willedoo]

Another lot of 75 Ukrainian POWs have returned home. It's good to see the Russians have returned to the prisoner exchange process after pulling out of it for a while. The Ukrainians have been in captivity for two years, mostly from Avostal as far as I know. It's a mixed bag seeing them returning; happy that they are home but sad to see their emaciated state compared to the healthy, well fed Russian POWs being released in the exchanges.

[willedoo]

It looks like the US has followed the lead of their European allies and approved the use of American supplied weapons inside Russia. It's been reported by some outlets that Biden had secretly approved it, but now Blinken has come out and announced it publicly.

[willedoo]

Slow Joe finally made a decision. His dithering has cost a lot of Ukrainian lives over the past two years. American aid is crucial to Ukraine but the US has not shown the leadership and understanding of the situation that Britain and the Europeans have. It's a sad situation where Biden is the best the US has. Many more Ukrainians would die if the orange clown was in charge.

[willedoo]

The US approval is not for long range missile strikes into Russia. It's only for artillery and short range HIMARS rounds to be fired over the border at Russian troops massing near the Kharkiv border. At least it's something that will help.

[facthunter]

The Hold up wasn't Biden's fault. It was the  Republicans not passing the required bill.   Nev

[willedoo]

1 hour ago, facthunter said:

The Hold up wasn't Biden's fault. It was the  Republicans not passing the required bill.   Nev

Nev, you are forgetting the other side of it, the presidential draw down authority. With that, Biden has the authority to order supplies from existing military stocks to be sent to Ukraine and then replaced by US manufacturers and suppliers. It's a separate thing from the aid package that was held up by the Republicans. Biden has always had the ability and authority to supply much needed long range missiles without being constrained by the Republicans blocking aid packages in Congress. Until now the decision not to supply them was wholly due to the administration's dithering based on their fear of putler escalating the conflict. It's an over simplification of the issues to blame only the Republicans as that aid package held up in Congress is only part of the equation. The blame is two fold. Firstly the Republicans blocking much needed aid in Congress and secondly, the Biden administration's indecision and fear of putin in the authorisation of specific use of US weapons against Russia, as well as their shortcomings in managing the draw down process . Those faults are with the administration, and not the Democrat party as a whole.

 

https://www.state.gov/use-of-presidential-drawdown-authority-for-military-assistance-for-ukraine/