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Sanctions against Russia


Bruce Tuncks

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And that was referring to the original Crimean War in 1853.

 

After their wars, the Russians (maybe moreso than others?) seem to leave a blank canvas for the victors to build a new county on.

 

Yes, the more things change, the more they stay the same.

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Mankind's BIGGEST challenge. Getting a  DECENT Government and coping with corruption. POO tin doesn't care about loss of lives and destruction of infrastructure. when he's dishing it out.. Trump's potentially NO better.   Nev

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Gerasimov has finally showed up in public in a propaganda video of him and Shoigu voting. It should put to rest rumours that he was killed in the Crimean command post strike in early January. He doesn't look well so it's possible he might have been recovering from some injuries which would explain his absence. Or he might have just had a bad case of covid for a while. It's hard to tell with Gerasimov as he looks fairly dopey at the best of times.

 

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Every day for the last two weeks, long range Ukrainian drones have been striking Russian oil refineries. Some estimates put the figure at 20% to 25% of Russia's oil refining capacity currently off-line until repaired. The challenge is to identify and be able to knock out critical parts of the refining infrastructure to cause longer term loss of production. A lot of strikes in the past have hit storage tanks which is not such a big deal. Damaged storage can easily be isolated and worked around. The latest strikes seem to indicate that the Ukrainians are getting more accurate and going for the higher priority components in the refineries.

 

It also highlights another problem for Russia. They know these attacks are occurring almost daily and yet they can do nothing to stop them. I've read some opinions that the Russians have had to move a lot of air defence systems to Ukraine to replace losses there which consequently leaves Russia relatively undefended. It looks like the attrition of Russian air defence systems at the front is starting to bite.

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I saw a report on ABC this morning that Russia is taking advantage of the high youth unemployment rate in Nepal, offering good wages and rapid citizenship to Nepalese youth to go to Russia. They interviewed one chap who said they first went to a camp, which was like a holiday, where they were taught to fire a rifle. After five days they were taken to Ukraine.

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The putin propaganda billboard in the foreground of this photo has the slogan 'Stability!' written on it. The backdrop is another one of Russia's oil refineries burning after Ukrainian drone attacks.

 

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The encouraging thing about the latest rounds of drone attacks on Russian refineries is that the Ukrainians seem to be getting a high degree of accuracy and are hitting high value targets within the refinery complexes. In a lot of the recorded video of the strikes, it looks like the distillation and cracking towers are burning. Video of one refinery being hit a couple of days ago showed the drones on descent, then turning in a U turn dive to hit specific targets.

It's the tall things they need to hit:

 

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Edited by willedoo
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He did even better in the Donetsk People's Republic polling 95%. I wonder if the election officials door knocking with two accompanying armed soldiers could have influenced the vote there. 

 

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This graphic shows locations and some distances of refineries that have been damaged. Currently 14 out of Russia's 30 largest refineries have suffered drone attacks.

 

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Edited by willedoo
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Putin is now IN really for as long as he wishes. He Cooks the Books and is surrounded by crooks. It's all the fault of the West. Well maybe but who initiated the Special Military Operation that's gone on for many more than the three days promised. They will shower you with Roses...  Nev

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Russian defence minister Shoigu has announced they will be creating two new ground armies. As a comparison of numbers involved, the new armies will be larger than the combined armies of of France, the U.K., Germany, Poland, Spain, Sweden and the Netherlands. putler will no doubt have to order another round of mobilisation now that his election is over.

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One big issue in the Russian/Ukrainian war has been the sustainability of artillery. It's been very much an artillery war and it's been decades since anyone has seen this sustained rate and volume of fire. One big problem has been barrel wear. Even if manufacturers could keep up with demand, artillery pieces still have to be taken off line for servicing and barrel changes. One example is the Panzerhaubitze 2000 self propelled howitzer the Ukrainians are using. The barrels are wearing quicker than expected due to the combination of a long 52 calibre gun firing at long range targets up to 55 kilometres away. A lot of equipment has never before been used at the intensity seen in Ukraine, so it's been educational for western militaries.

 

Budget documents released this month scrapped U.S. plans to double the range of the M109 self propelled howitzer by developing the new M1299 howitzer, with the problem being an unacceptably low barrel life. The M1299 has a 58 calibre barrel firing 155mm rounds out to 98 kilometres in tests. Before scrapping it, they delivered a battalion of 18 prototypes last year for testing, but the barrel wear problem hadn't been solved. The wear in artillery barrels is caused by rate of fire (causing overheating) and in this case, long-range shots using maximum charges which causes excessive kinetic stress on the barrel.

 

Two shell types were developed for the M1299; a ramjet version from Boeing and a sabot design from BAE Systems. A simple fix would be to increase barrel thickness, but the long 58 calibre barrel on the M1299 has enough balance problems with the current barrel thickness as evidenced by the added autoloader having to be redesigned down from 31 shells to 23. Photo below is a M1299 prototype.

 

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A screen grab of Russian defence minister Shoigu visiting a munitions factory. Russia now has their growing economy firmly on a war footing and is ramping up arms production. I guess this is stage two of putin's 'outlast the West strategy'. So far, he's in with a chance helped by weak western political will combined with sanction dodging western companies and arms supplies from allied countries like Iran and North Korea. The U.S. and a lot of European countries are asleep at the wheel; they think if they stick their head in the sand, putler will go away. They just don't get it. If nobody crosses the nuclear line, whoever has the most bombs, men and shells will win.

 

 

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