Sanctions against Russia

[kgwilson]

100% a false flag event. The desperation seems to be worsening daily.

[nomadpete]

11 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Sorry Nomad.. I meant my post as a more general point than specifically in response to you previous post.

No need to apologise. My comment was just general observation, too.

[willedoo]

2 hours ago, kgwilson said:

100% a false flag event. The desperation seems to be worsening daily.

A big clue to their nonsense is the speed at which the Kremlin responds with a manufactured statement and so called proof. It happens instantly with every false flag; on the other hand, if they have a genuine setback, the Kremlin has a lengthy silence followed later by a series of conflicting half hearted statements and denials. In this case, they expect us to believe Ukrainian drones flew hundreds of kilometres across Russia undetected, then entered the heavily defended Moscow region and slipped straight through multi layered air defence systems to finally get shot down in the Kremlin yard at 3am just as two fireman happened to be on the dome roof of the senate building and people were awake and filming the exact point of the target. They could have at least bodgied up some false cctv footage.

 

Anyway, it doesn't matter. Today the U.S. did it. Tomorrow Poland will probably get the blame. There's a possibility they really are that stupid that they think the world will believe their capers, but the stronger likelihood is that it has nothing to do with us and is aimed at a domestic audience. Most of the Russian public will believe anything the Kremlin tells them, so it could be preparation for something they plan to spring on their own people. Like more mobilisation or a tightening of control. It certainly will feature in putler's grand speech in four days time.

[Old Koreelah]

Putin’s main handicap is the lack of commitment of it’s people to this conflict.

All he has to do is convince them that Mother Russia is under attack.

[willedoo]

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is continuing his spat with the military top brass. This time he's really lost it. He's released a video where he's standing in front of dozens of corpses of Wagner troops freshly killed that day. In the video he is yelling (almost screaming) at defence minister Shoigu and military chief Gerasimov for depriving Wagners of artillery shells. He's been publicly calling them by some nasty names lately. It's looking like they are all about to implode. I won't post the video link as it involves gore, but it's not hard to find.

[willedoo]

I don't think Prigozhin would be too bothered if he was banished from the Moscow circle of sad sacks. He makes his money through Wagner's mercenary operations in Africa (gold & diamonds) so if Russia turned to shite, he could just locate there permanently and live a life of luxury. I think the only reason he's fighting in Ukraine is because he's Russian; he makes far better money elsewhere.

[facthunter]

Wagners could Possibly Take Russia over. Of course they're fed up with stupidity and confusion but they are doing it for money not any other reason., They've Picked their bed and now they can Ly in it. Who cares about that type of show?  Nev

[willedoo]

Bakhmut has been one big killing field with Wagners being the biggest casualty. The Russians have taken most of it and Ukraine only holds about two and a half square kilometeres of the western suburbs. The problem for the Russians is that they won't get time to reinforce, fortify and hold the town if Ukraine starts it's counter push very soon. By the end of this month, Bakhmut could be back under total Ukrainian control and the Russians will have lost tens of thousands of troops for nothing. The Ukrainians are playing them like fish. Not hard to do if the last 14 months are anything to go by.

[onetrack]

I wonder if Prickochin is going to have a little accident, involving standing too close to an open Russian window?? Seems like it happens when you start to become vocal about the failings of the Putin mob.

[Jerry_Atrick]

I would guess Putin needs him more than he needs Putin... at the moment

[willedoo]

3 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

I would guess Putin needs him more than he needs Putin... at the moment

Good point. Girkin must also be of some use to them as well. With his regular broadcasts of honest opinion on the failings of putler & co.,I'm surprised he hasn't got the golden window before now.

[willedoo]

Prigozhin has said he will be withdrawing all Wagner forces from Bakhmut on the 10th. May, five days time, because the defence ministry won't send them ammunition. He said he's waiting until after Victory Day on the 9th. so he doesn't shame the military memory. For anyone who hasn't followed it, he's been claiming the defence department has nobbled them out of jealousy because Wagners are the ones gaining ground while the Russian army regulars are consistently failing. Some commentators have said the Russian top brass is doing it because Prigozhin is getting all the media attention and they are concerned about his growing influence and power.

[Marty_d]

The more Russian infighting, the better. 

[willedoo]

This is the Ukrainian held section of Bakhmut burning. The Russians have been bombing it with incendiary munitions. Not sure which, either white phosphorus or thermite.

 

 

[willedoo]

putler is desperate for a victory to add to his Victory Day speech on Tuesday, hence the escalation at Bakhmut. The Russians are getting nervous. About 20 cities have so far cancelled their Victory Day celebrations, and putler has cancelled his Victory Day reception where he normally meets WW2 veterans for a function in the Kremlin. He must be scraping the barrel for fresh lies to feed the sheep with.

[onetrack]

It'd be good to see the Ukrainians launch a massive king-hit on the Russian troops just as they're celebrating Victory Day. That'd be a nice pyschological kick in the nuts.

[facthunter]

It doesn't work that way. Putin can drop anything anywhere in Ukraine but even a firecracker on HIS Place will mean all out Nuclear war on the West.  Nev

[willedoo]

I wouldn't be digging a bunker in the back yard just yet. Most so-called world experts in the intelligence community think there's little likelihood putin will use nukes. As far as small battlefield tactical nukes go, they say he would have little to gain and everything to lose. putler has had plenty of his red lines crossed already and still no nukes. Look at the nervousness of western supporters. Almost every major weapon system now in use in Ukraine took a long time to get there because the eventual suppliers feared it would cause an escalation with the risk of nuclear conflict. They said it about supplying tanks and now there's hundreds of western tanks in Ukraine and still no nuclear bomb. Now they're saying the same thing about supplying fighter jets.

 

putin is a lot of things, but he's not completely bat sh*t crazy. Aside from the fact it's not just one man with a red button that enables a launch, putin knows that if he launches strategic nukes at the west, Moscow and most of civilised Russia would cease to exist twenty minutes later. He wants to win, not lose everything. Another factor could be lack of trust in his own nuclear shield. If the state of their military is any yardstick, there's no guarantee their nuclear forces are anywhere as capable as they make it out to be. He would have to look at the scenario that his nukes get shot down while the enemy's nukes make it to Moscow. There's a lot of risk vs benefit issues for him to think about.

[rgmwa]

It will be interesting to see whether Biden and NATO eventually decide to give the Ukrainians F16's if Russia escalates their war in the country. Aren't some Ukrainian pilots already being trained on them, or did I imagine hearing that a while ago?  

 

[willedoo]

2 minutes ago, rgmwa said:

It will be interesting to see whether Biden and NATO eventually decide to give the Ukrainians F16's if Russia escalates their war in the country. Aren't some Ukrainian pilots already being trained on them, or did I imagine hearing that a while ago?  

 

Yes, as far as I know that's right. They must be at least considering supplying them post war. I would guess the Americans will hold off on F-16's while the war is on unless putin escalates and gives the U.S. the political excuse they need to supply them. In that case, it makes sense to have a head start on training pilots and ground crews. I recon the F-16 would be ideal for Ukraine.

 

They are also training on A-10 Warthogs, so there must be plans to eventually supply them as well. The Americans would probably have plenty of them to sell or give away. The U.S. was going to de-commission the Warthogs a while ago, but then decided to keep them going for a while longer.

[rgmwa]

It was the A-10 training I'd heard about.

[kgwilson]

Prigozhin has announced the Wagner group will be leaving Bakhmut on 10 May due to his ongoing feud with the Russian military who have not been supplying him with the ammunition he wants. He is screaming at Shoigu & Gerazimovin in a video uploaded to Telegram that shows bodies of his Soldiers behind him & in another he has a paper in his hand apparently for Shoigu advising of the withdrawl with about 50 Wagner mercenaries standing behind him. We'll see if this is true.

 

Also in anticipation of the Ukrainian counter attack Russia has begun to evacuate civilians from the Zaporizhzhia area around the nuclear power plant This is a big concern for the international nuclear energy watchdog as many of these people are required to keep the plant running.

[willedoo]

4 hours ago, kgwilson said:

Prigozhin has announced the Wagner group will be leaving Bakhmut on 10 May

Apparently Kadyrov's rabble is replacing them. There must be some goats left in Bakhmut.

[willedoo]

There's unconfirmed reports that the Russian administration in Melitopol is bailing out and heading to Crimea. Reports are of empty offices and blank Russian passports scattered about. If the Ukrainians make a heavy push in those areas, it makes sense for the Russian forces to pull back to Crimea and defend it. The Kerch Bridge has been closed to civilian traffic, and also rumours that the ferries have stopped running. I don't know what that would be about. Maybe the amount of Russian civilians leaving Crimea is getting a bit embarrassing for the government.

 

Also the Ukrainian military intelligence is claiming the Russians have moved most of the Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol and relocated them to the port at Novorossiysk in Russia. The suspense is getting a bit much. I don't think too many people know what tricks the Ukrainians have up their sleeves. Probably a left hook and a right jab at the same time.

[Bruce Tuncks]

It doesn't make sense to me that Melitipol is about to be abandoned by Russia. This town is near the shores of the sea of Azov, and is clearly of great strategic importance.