Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

6 hours ago, Bruce Tuncks said:

It doesn't make sense to me that Melitipol is about to be abandoned by Russia. This town is near the shores of the sea of Azov, and is clearly of great strategic importance.

It's very strategic, being at a major crossroads. If Ukraine held Melitopol, they could cut off all mainland road access from Russia into Crimea. The only way to service Crimea would then be air, shipping or the Kerch bridge.

[willedoo]

Since the war started, there's been quite a lot of memes and jokes about Russia's two-headed chook emblem. Here's a couple of them:

 

[willedoo]

I wouldn't like to attempt guessing any predictions for the expected Ukrainian counter offensive; anything could happen. Logic tells you that returning Crimea to Ukraine would be the biggest gain for Ukraine and the biggest loss for Russia. Naturally, by defaut, re-taking Crimea would mean the return of land in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. It's hard to see it viable for Russia to hold Luhansk and half of Donetsk oblasts in the long term after the loss of Crimea.

 

U.S. intelligence has assessed that putler's remaining rabble have lost the ability for any more major offensives. They are saying he most likely realises that and will stick with Plan B to defend and hold what they have, thus denying Ukraine NATO membership. The dilemma for Ukraine is that they need a total victory and peace to qualify for NATO membership. If putler manages to hold on to any Ukrainian territory, the only way for Ukraine to gain NATO membership would be to cede that land to Russia in a peace agreement. The only way to guarantee long term security is to join NATO, and the only way to do that is to win and expel all Russian forces, or give putler land.

 

The only problem with that theory is that putler doesn't want Ukraine in NATO. To prevent that, he will keep whatever portion of conflict going that he is capable of, and will not take a land for peace offer. To end the war, possibly the only way is a total victory for Ukraine. Even then, as long as putin is in control, the threat is not gone.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if Ukraine tries to sucker-punch the Russians like they did last time when they took back most of Kharkiv province while the orcs were expecting it at Kherson instead.

[red750]

The head of Russia's mercenary Wagner group said on Monday that according to preliminary data his troops were beginning to receive the ammunition they needed, and reported heavy fighting in the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut.

 

"Today, the groups advanced a maximum of 130 meters (400 feet) ... Fierce fighting is going on, but the groups are continuing to advance," Wagner said in an audio message posted on social media.

 

"According to preliminary data, we are starting to receive ammunition. We have not (yet) seen it in practice."

[red750]

Victory Day celebrations were much downgraded this year, with only one tank (all he has left?) and no airforce flypast.

[rgmwa]

Interesting article: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/09/opinion/putin-ukraine-war.html

 

[onetrack]

The article below explains at length what a Ukrainian retaking of Crimea might mean as regards a Russian response.

 

The retaking of Crimea by Ukraine could harden Russian opinion against them, and cause a major increase in popular support for Putin, and a substantial expansion of the War.

 

https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/05/putins-holy-grail-myth-power-and-the-retaking-of-russian-occupied-crimea/

[Old Koreelah]

On 10/5/2023 at 10:41 PM, rgmwa said:

Interesting article: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/09/opinion/putin-ukraine-war.html

 

Hidden behind paywall.

[rgmwa]

23 minutes ago, Old Koreelah said:

Hidden behind paywall.

Pity. Basically saying Putin can’t win because his plan A has failed, he has no plan B, but can’t afford to lose because Russia doesn’t like losers, and so has to keep going with plan A because he has no other options. Can’t win, can’t lose, can’t stop.

Edited May 11, 2023 by rgmwa

[Jerry_Atrick]

I think if you just register you can read it.. I just used a little used Google account to register with.

Edited May 11, 2023 by Jerry_Atrick

[nomadpete]

7 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

.. I just used a little used Google account to register with.

I'm NOT paranoid, but..... Nevertheless THEY will track you down.

[facthunter]

Putin's an idiot. Basing a risky venture on a  "made in Heaven" unlikely assumption. Don't start something you don't know how to stop.. His answers to most things are "destroy and Kill" and strut his "tough Guy" Image. What is he covering up?   Nev

[onetrack]

He was raised in East Germany and raised on Communist fables and taught the crafts of lying, deceit, spying and utter ruthlessness by the worst of the Cold War Russians.

He still lives in a fantasy land where the West is "out to get" the Russians, and Russian ideology and culture is superior to anything else in the world.

 

He also lives in permanent, paranoiac fear that someone close to him will top him, same as he has topped so many others, to get into the position of power he's in now.

 

Wars are won just as much on the psychological angle, as on the battlefield. The Ukrainians are clever enough to understand this, and this is the reason why they have never struck any Russian civilians, nor even attempted to strike down Putin or any of his henchmen. Besides, why strike down idiots who are leading their country into disaster? They might get replaced by someone far more dangerous.

 

As Mick Ryan says, there's an old saying in the military, "when your enemies are making a lot of mistakes, don't get in their way".

[willedoo]

12 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

I think if you just register you can read it.. I just used a little used Google account to register with.

You can read it with Javascript turned off in your browser. My advice to anyone, depending on your browser, is to install an add on extension Javascript switcher. It will place a widget on your toolbar and Javascript can be toggled on or off with a mouse click rather than having to go into your browser settings. I use it all the time to bypass paywalls. It won't work with all sites, but probably half of them will work with JS off,

[willedoo]

4 minutes ago, onetrack said:

He was raised in East Germany and raised on Communist fables and taught the crafts of lying, deceit, spying and utter ruthlessness by the worst of the Cold War Russians.

A small correction, he was born and raised in St. Petersburg and was posted to East Germany when he was a KGB officer.

[willedoo]

[Bruce Tuncks]

I like to think that as well as proving that dictatorships are weaker than democracies, this war will show everybody that corruption makes you weaker than you thought. Even in Australia, we have far too much corruption and we are weaker because of it.

[Old Koreelah]

58 minutes ago, Bruce Tuncks said:

I like to think that as well as proving that dictatorships are weaker than democracies, this war will show everybody that corruption makes you weaker than you thought. Even in Australia, we have far too much corruption and we are weaker because of it.

I suspect that was a major factor in Albo’s victory over the other lot.
I suspect Australians have a lower tolerance for rorts than most nationalities.

[red750]

Here is a catalogue of the military hardware lost by Russia in the Ukraine...

 

Lost hardware slideshow.

[Old Koreelah]

Not easy to look at. Most of those would contain the sad remains of a few poor buggers.

[willedoo]

MSN slipped up on the first one; it has Ukrainian markings on it (white cross).

[willedoo]

Speculation is increasing that putler's butt-plug, Alexander Lukashenko, might be dead. I don't know if we could be that lucky; he might be just really crook. He was sick at putler's Victory Day parade and flew straight back to Minsk to a government hospital and hasn't been seen since. Russian doctors are reported to have flown to the hospital, and there's been reports of a Russian government jet landing in Minsk; a jet that normally ferries VIP's around.

 

[Bruce Tuncks]

Gosh I hope you are correct old K in that Australians have less tolerance of corruption than most .

[red750]

Ukraines new brigades - slideshow.

[kgwilson]

The West has supplied a lot of equipment to Ukraine but at one stage, I think after the offensive last Summer, Russia was the largest donor of military hardware to Ukraine. It was very handy too as Ukraine already had trained personnel to use it.