Sanctions against Russia

[nomadpete]

16 hours ago, willedoo said:

Speculation is increasing that putler's butt-plug, Alexander Lukashenko, might be dead........ He was sick at putler's Victory Day parade

Maybe ate something while he was visiting?

[onetrack]

It was almost certainly the cup of tea he had, that reacted badly with him.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/15/images-of-lukashenko-released-after-rumours-over-belarusian-leaders-health

 

Edited May 16, 2023 by onetrack

[Marty_d]

5 hours ago, nomadpete said:

Maybe ate something while he was visiting?

So confusing when they have the polonium right next to the sugar...

[willedoo]

He looks like he's lost a few kilos during his stay in hospital. This time he's got the left hand bandaged; it was the right hand bandaged when he was in Moscow for the May 9th. Victory parade.

[willedoo]

One positive about the Ukraine war is the weakening of Russia's military. If potato-head died or was deposed, putler would struggle to muster enough forces to take over Belarus. Having said that, the Belorussian military is relatively small and weak. There would only be two scenarios post-Lukashenko; either a pro Russian mob would take over, or the pro Europe mob.

[Marty_d]

Which one's potato head?  I've peeled spuds similar to both. 

[pmccarthy]

5 hours ago, willedoo said:

He looks like he's lost a few kilos during his stay in hospital. This time he's got the left hand bandaged; it was the right hand bandaged when he was in Moscow for the May 9th. Victory parade.

He's changed hands, and they can’t stop him doing it.

[kgwilson]

The Belarusian batallion of the Ukraine army is a lot smaller than the Belarusian Army in Belarus, but is better equipped and better trained. If Lukashenko went & Putin wasn't able to prop his lackeys up I reckon there would be a lot of desertion of Belarusians across to the Ukrainian side. Either that or the opposition that really won the last election would form a new democratic government & Putin would become even more isolated.

[willedoo]

In a diplomatic coup for Russia, foreign minister Lavrov has signed an agreement with Uganda that neither country will be the first to deploy weapons in space. The world can now breath easy knowing that Uganda will not lead the space weapon race. At the same time he was hosting the Ugandan foreign minister in Moscow, China was holding it's first China - Central Asia Summit with the leaders of ex-Soviet Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Russia wasn't invited to join the group. But who needs all that when you've got Uganda as a new best friend.

[rgmwa]

Well if Uganda doesn’t go first, which seems like a pretty safe bet, I guess Russia has just ruled itself out of the game too. Provided you trust the Russians of course.

[rgmwa]

Looks like the Ukrainians may finally get some F16’s, although who knows when.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Yeah, except for one niggling thing.. this war is probably costing the US the same as it is costing Russia (in hardware, not lives).. and the Repulicans are playing politics with the debt ceiling; there has been reports that the deal to get the house to approve the increase of the debt ceiling will be to wind down support for the Ukraine. Huh! Who would have thought even 10 yers ago that the US republicans would abandon their "rather be dead than red" slogans for Putin, of all people?

[Bruce Tuncks]

Seems silly I know about Uganda and space. But there is a book in which the moon was colonized by Nigeria, because all the rest wanted too much woke stuff which would have made it all too expensive.

[onetrack]

I must say I'm surprised that the Ukraine hasn't made overtures to the Taliban to relieve them of the burden of trying to own and operate US$380B worth of U.S. weaponry and equipment abandoned there.

Surely there must be a stack of U.S. aircraft that the peasant Taliban will never fly? - and they're probably looking for money to keep their economy going, too - seeing as the constant planeloads of U.S. dollars has dried up with the overthrow of the Kabul puppet regime.

[rgmwa]

The Americans would take a dim view of Ukraine dealing with the Taliban to get their abandoned equipment, most of which has probably been trashed by now.

[willedoo]

6 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Yeah, except for one niggling thing.. this war is probably costing the US the same as it is costing Russia (in hardware, not lives).. and the Repulicans are playing politics with the debt ceiling; there has been reports that the deal to get the house to approve the increase of the debt ceiling will be to wind down support for the Ukraine. Huh! Who would have thought even 10 yers ago that the US republicans would abandon their "rather be dead than red" slogans for Putin, of all people?

The problem for the Republicans is that they fail in basic mathematics. For a very small fraction of the U.S. defence budget, the Americans have destroyed most of Russia's military capability without firing a single shot themselves. That's a bargain by any calculation.

[facthunter]

The Republicans have "Lost IT" big time. Trump has shorted out their minds. Nev

[kgwilson]

Wagners have finally taken Bahkmut after about 10 months and the loss of around 70,000 troops. The word is that after securing some trenches they are going to move out. This whole saga is completely crazy. The entire city has been reduced to rubble. Nothing is left so they have gained nothing but a bit of ground. When the counter offensive happens the Ukrainians will most likely just go around it and cut off whoever is left there (probably Russian army conscripts) defending a complete wasteland.

[nomadpete]

In view of that, (Russia takes Bakmut, and then.....) perhaps the west and the EU will be more motivated to support Ukraine?

 

In the longer term, this conflict seems set to neutralise Russia's importance on the world stage.

 

Who will that leave?

 

Should we pal up with.......  USA, or China, or the EU?

[rgmwa]

I think China see us as something of a blot on their landscape given our geographical position and the fact that we have a lot of what they want but we lack the respect they feel we should give them. A group of us spent five weeks travelling in China in 2010. It was a great trip and we all liked the Chinese people but I remember our guide in Chengdu was a bit of a bombastic type. The conversation got onto how he viewed Australia. He said, ‘Well, there’s only 25 million of you’. Chengdu’s population is about 21 million. I think the Chinese leadership sees us in much the same way.

[willedoo]

Bakhmut is a very hollow victory for the Russians. All they get is one big rat trap ready to spring shut on them. Controlling 100% of the rubble that was Bakhmut doesn't give them any more control over vital roads leading into Ukrainian held territory. The Ukrainians have been eating away at the Russian flanks north and south of the city, and Ukrainian forces still control Ivanivske just to the west which is high ground overlooking Bakhmut. Wagner's are doing the smart thing by pulling out and going back to Africa while they still have some professionals left. Defence is not their thing anyway as they are set up primarily as assault troops. Bakhmut is a death trap for the Russian regulars who will be left holding the can. The place is ripe for encirclement.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Yes.. agree, and hopefully when the Ukrainain offensive kicks off, it will result in large scale retreat of the Russians and their private army as well. However, there is a chain of thought that, after almost a year of fightling it may deal a moral blow that will set back the Ukrainain defence.

 

The news that the US has allowed western jets to be used and fighter pilots are being trained could not come at a better time.

 

[willedoo]

16 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

However, there is a chain of thought that, after almost a year of fightling it may deal a moral blow that will set back the Ukrainain defence.

Jerry, I'd be surprised if it came to that. The troops fighting in Bakhmut and the military commanders have all long known the big picture there, ie: to tie down and destroy as many Russians as possible while buying time for the rest of the military to prepare for the counter-offensive. The troops there have had regular visits from the top commanders and even the president himself, so I think they would be well briefed on the strategic reasons for holding Bakhmut and would have been prepared for an eventual withdrawal at the right time. The situation awareness would be helped by the fact Ukraine has always had road access to the town and have been able to rotate fresh troops in and out.

 

The obsession with Bakhmut seems to have all been on the Russian side. For them it's become politics and pride and a symbol to redeem some face in spite of their serial failures. For the Ukrainians it was important in the early stages to hold the city and deny the Russians highway access from there to more important centres north. But as time went by and the Ukrainians saw Russian large scale offensive capability diminish, Bakhmut became a strategy playing on the Russian obsession. In the end, it was massive amounts of Russian artillery bombardment that made holding the last sector of Bakhmut not viable. My guess is that most, if not all of the Ukrainian military would see what's happened there as a victory in spite of the huge losses. Russia now has the rubble and can't advance any further at this stage.

[nomadpete]

I guess the Ukranians have kept the Russian focus on one city, thereby limiting the Russian 'total destruction' strategy to one city. This is a better outcome than having all that bombardment happening to a number of cities.

A risk management calculation that results in fewer civilian casualties over the longer term.

[rgmwa]

Although the US has now relented on the F16's and training of Ukrainian pilots is likely to commence soon, the reports also say that it will take many months before any NATO aircraft are seen in the conflict. I wonder how true that is or whether they are deliberately downplaying the time it will take. I would have thought it would not take too long to train experienced fighter pilots to fly these planes and learn the systems. Maintenance and support would be another issue, and I suppose the logistics of providing adequate facilities could take a while if they have to set up in Ukraine.