Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

As if Russia couldn't get any crazier, Prigozhin and his Wagner forces have crossed back into Russia's Rostov region in an attempted coup. He says he has 25,000 men and is calling on the National Guard to join him. They are also contacting former Wagner contractors and the 30,000 prisoners who have served their time and gone home to Russia.

 

He says Putin's position is safe and the coup is only directed at the Ministry of Defence. Columns of armoured vehicles have been seen in Moscow guarding the MoD, and army chief of staff Gerasimov has ordered air strikes and attacks on Wagner forces. Prighozin says the border guards welcomed them and let them through without a problem.

 

It looks like all his rantings against Shoigu, Gerasimov and the top generals wasn't a bluff after all. It will be hard for putler to explain this one to the sheep. Expect press releases from the Kremlin stating secret Ukrainian neo-Nazi biolabs have slipped mind bending substances into Wagner's drinking water. Everything is going according to plan.

 

There might be a few flights from Moscow to South America soon.

[facthunter]

This outcome was to a great extent Predictable. Maybe it will be a  turning point in the whole fracas, that was meant to be over in a matter of days with the locals throwing Roses.. Nev

[willedoo]

It's a big gamble by Prigozhin. This is from the Russian Prosecutor General's Office:

"On June 23, 2023, the Investigative Department of the FSB of Russia has initiated a criminal case against Prigozhin E.V. under Article 279 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation on the fact of organizing an armed rebellion. His actions will be given a proper legal assessment. This crime is punishable by imprisonment for a term of 12 to 20 years"

 

Prigozhin has got a long way to go to Moscow and could only pull it off if enough regular military defect. At this stage, you would have to say he's got Buckley's chance, but who knows, anything could happen. He must be either very confident or deluded.

[kgwilson]

The good thing is that dissent in Russia is growing. More and more ordinary Russians now have friends or relatives that have been killed of wounded in the war. The problem is still that most of these do not come from the upper and middle class Russians who live in the St Petersburg or Moscow areas.

 

How many top quality troops has Prigozhin actually got left? Most of the recruited criminals got killed at Bakhmut. He said himself that Wagners lost 20,000 there.

[willedoo]

He's claiming 25,000, but how many are quality troops is just a guess. Some media claims said he was using the crims as cannon fodder to preserve his core force of professional mercenaries. He might only have a few thousand quality troops. To pull anything off, he would need the military intelligence GRU on side. They answer to the MoD, but have their own special forces troops. If he got them on side, then they would still have to convince the FSB.

 

Going by his statement, he's going after Shoigu and Gerazimov, then back to the front line in Ukraine:

 

"PMC Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped. They neglect the lives of soldiers. They forgot the word “justice”, and we will bring it back. Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist. Everyone who will try to resist, we will consider them a danger and destroy them immediately, including any checkpoints on our way. And any aviation that we see above our heads. I’m asking everyone to remain calm, do not succumb to provocations, and remain in their houses. Ideally, those along our way, do not go outside.

 

After we finished what we started, we will return to the frontline to protect our motherland. Presidential authority, Government, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Rosgvardia, and other departments will continue operating as before. We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers. And we will return to the frontline. Justice in the Army will be restored. And after this, justice for the whole of Russia."

 

[facthunter]

What's all that supposed to mean?   Nev

[willedoo]

I think he fancies himself as being the one who can win the war for Russia. With that done, he's a national hero next in line for putler's throne. He should stay away from windows though, just to be on the safe side.

[willedoo]

Rostov is a very important area for Prigozhin and his forces. There's a number of large logistics and storage centres there; enough gear to arm a division, but no division of troops, only conscripts and wounded guarding it all. Also the navy's Black Sea Fleet command centre is located there. Maybe his plan is to control enough so that large sections of the military and the GRU choose his side. He might be able to consolidate something big enough without having to march to Moscow straight away.

Edited June 24, 2023 by willedoo

[willedoo]

This is a very low res video screengrab, but it's reported to be Wagner forces and tanks surrounding the headquarters of the Russian Southern Military district in Rostov. It could be a dodgy claim as it's 6am there and would hardly be light yet. Rostov is also a huge shipping hub as all the Don river shipping goes through the delta there into the Azov Sea, then into the Black Sea.

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by willedoo

[onetrack]

Prigohzin's deluded if he thinks he can pull off a coup with his small number of mercenaries, and trying to get other Russian combat units on side. The Russians will simply turn their substantial forces on Wagners mob and eliminate them. They have reached "zero usefulness" now, in Putin's and his Generals view - so getting rid of them is now, the only option to save Putins arse.

 

I'd expect Putin and his Generals will put out a strong and repeated message now to Wagners soldiers, to either join the regular Russian forces, or be wiped out. Mind you, for the average Wagner soldier, the choices are - 1.) be wiped out by Ukrainians .. or 2.) be wiped out by Russians directly ... or 3.) be wiped out by Putin's mob, using you as cannon fodder. What a set of choices.

 

Meantimes, the Ukrainians must be doing Toyota leaps, and High-fives, watching all this unfold .....

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-24/wagner-boss-yevgeny-prigozhin-mercenaries-march-into-russia/102519616

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by onetrack

[facthunter]

IF someone  had written a book with a plot along the lines of this event it would be regarded as  far fetched and pushing the bounds of reality.   Nev 

[Jerry_Atrick]

Oh, Mr. Putin. What a mess!!!

Edited June 24, 2023 by Jerry_Atrick

[rgmwa]

Prigohzin's plan of a quick detour into Rostov to give his MoD enemies a thrashing and then going back to the fight in Ukraine seems insane. They won't let him get away with that, especially when he's basically criticising Putin's decision to attack Ukraine in the first place. His goose is cooked I suspect, but the Ukrainians must be cheering him on.

 

[pmccarthy]

There is a theory that Prig is doing Putler.s bidding because Putler is afraid of the army guys and needs someone to stop a coup.

[willedoo]

Maybe Prigozhin purposely planned the coup attempt for Saturday morning knowing most of the Russian officers would be sleeping off Friday night's vodka sessions.

[willedoo]

The coup would be highly amusing if only half the rumours were true. In the early stages of reporting and social media leaks, sifting the wheat from the chaff is the tricky part. It's been claimed Wagners have taken over the Rostov southern military district headquarters, and that Gerasimov has fled the headquarters and is attempting to hide in a friend's apartment in the city. If any of it is true it would make a good movie one day.

 

Another story is that Kadyrov's goat interferers have been ordered to block Wagner's access to Moscow.

[willedoo]

Some of the videos circulating claiming to be Wagner convoys on the move look more like the National Guard (red stripe on the truck body).

 

It's odd that a coup is attempted right at the point Ukraine is getting all their ducks lined up for a major counter-offensive push. The Ukrainians have been hitting a lot of logistic and ammunition storage sites and bridges in the last few days. The front line Russian artillery has only about three days supply of shells on their artillery trucks and it's getting difficult to re-supply them. The Ukrainians have reportedly been using artillery launched RAAM mines to mine the back roads behind the Russian front lines. I'm not sure about that; I read somewhere that the RAAM mines weren't suitable for hard roads and airfields as they can break easily when landing on hard surfaces.

 

Either way, there's been indications the Ukrainians are preparing for something big, so it's a bad time for Russia to declare war on itself.

[willedoo]

It seems to be a very confused situation. Prigozhin has definitely made it to the southern military district HQ in Rostov, but whether he controls it is doubtful. They've released this video of him at the HQ in discussion with Shoigu's deputy defence minister (bloke on the left with the mustache). They look fairly relaxed.

 

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672463016586014720

[willedoo]

It's looking like Wagners are moving with more than one single force. Multiple unconfirmed reports have come in that Wagner forces have secured Voronezh region as well, and are moving on Volgagrad and Krasnodar with little resistance. If the rumours are true, Wagners would control an area in Russia larger than all the Ukrainian occupied territory including Crimea. The videos of Wagner columns moving through Voronezh show a lot of tanks on low loaders as well as other military vehicles. That area is halfway to Moscow, only a few hours drive.

 

Other unconfirmed reports say that an entire special forces brigade has defected to them, and the Russian Storm-Z released convict battalions have said they will support Prigozhin if he needs them. Probably in 2 or 3 days time it might be clearer how much of it is BS.

[willedoo]

Need more popcorn for this. Shooting has started in Voronezh, and Wagners have downed a couple of Russian helicopters that were attacking their convoys. In videos you can see Wagners traveling with radar trucks with radars active, so they seem to have mobile air defence as they go.

 

Flight tracking has picked up an increasing number of private jets around Moscow with no declared destination or Turkey as a destination. Earlier today, putler's Belorussian mate's private family jet was logged leaving Minsk with the transponder off over Russian airspace, then later appearing over Turkey. Maybe Luka is moving his family as a precaution.

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by willedoo

[Old Koreelah]

3 hours ago, willedoo said:

Maybe Prigozhin purposely planned the coup attempt for Saturday morning knowing most of the Russian officers would be sleeping off Friday night's vodka sessions.

A very likely scenario. Easy to laugh at Russian unpreparedness, but our own record is not wonderful. When once our military was called upon to defend Sydney from an aerial threat, they failed dismally and visiting British forces had to save us!

https://uselessinformation.org/the-ghost-plane/

https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/71676908

[Marty_d]

Ok, wishful thinking here - best case scenario is Prig and all of Wagner wiped out, in the process Putler, most of the Kremlin and half of the Russian army destroyed, country then spends a generation or 2 rebuilding and thinking seriously about how bad an idea it is to invade neighbours.

I know, it's a fantasy.

[willedoo]

29 minutes ago, Marty_d said:

I know, it's a fantasy.

But it's a good one.

[willedoo]

It could be an entertaining day tomorrow. The Wagner column heading to Moscow is said to be 50klm long. If they travel through the night without too many problems, they will be in Moscow tomorrow afternoon. Flight data shows the Russian government Il-96 planes having left for St. Petersburg. Maybe putler's last stand will be in his home town. I keep having visions of the movie 'Downfall'.

[Old Koreelah]

More likely, the Russian Federation splinters into dozens of warring tribes.

So many ethnic groups have long been under Russian domination, there’s sure to be lots of wanna-be national founding fathers. The question is, will they be Ataturks or Kim il Songs?

 

We’re told that some Oligarks have already set up their own militias in preparation.