Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

1 minute ago, Old Koreelah said:

More likely, the Russian Federation splinters into dozens of warring tribes.

First out of the blocks would be Chechnya and Dagestan in the south; they have geography on their side for independence.

[willedoo]

If the Russian Federation loses Chechnya and Dagestan, they lose the Caspian Sea, the Caspian Sea naval fleet and all the commercial shipping access to Iran.

[rgmwa]

The Russian population must be feeling very confused as to why Russians are suddenly invading Russia.

[willedoo]

6 minutes ago, rgmwa said:

The Russian population must be feeling very confused as to why Russians are suddenly invading Russia.

Surely even the dumbest, most ill-informed Russian civilian must now realise things aren't going to plan. putler can't hide this one. The best he can hope for is to put the rebellion down then play the hero president card hoping the sheep will rally around him. They've blocked google news since the start of the coup attempt, but you would think Russians could still access proxy servers to find out what's happening.

[Jerry_Atrick]

6 hours ago, willedoo said:

Surely even the dumbest, most ill-informed Russian civilian must now realise things aren't going to plan. putler can't hide this one.

That is true, however, it still doesn't stop them thinking the war - ahem, special military operation - - is justified. There are stories of Russian ex pats calling home and their Russian based relatives not speaking to hem on account that the ex-pats are brainwashed by the Western media, and then they basically disown their ex-pat family members/friends. Of course, it could be a tactic in case the government or agencies are spying on them and they are keeping themselves out of the Gulag or falling down stairs/out of windows.

 

6 hours ago, willedoo said:

but you would think Russians could still access proxy servers to find out what's happening.

It is really easy for a government to instruct its [state controlled] ISPs and possibly telco infrastructure providers to be the "man in the middle" and it is easy for them to see everything that is encrypted.. so they can easily block even VPN and other proxied access.

[willedoo]

At this stage it looks like the coup is a fizzer. Potato head has offered Prighozin and his mercs a base in Belarus, in exchange for Russia not prosecuting them. All the Wagner mercs who didn't take part in it will be absorbed into the Russian MoD. Luka will be happy; he will have a private army that owes him. If it happens it won't be good for the Belorussian opposition.

 

There will be some bad blood for a while as Wagners killed 13 Russian airmen, downing a swag of helicopters and an Il-22 fixed wing. I wonder what changed Prigozhin's mind. In his statements there was a hint of money changing hands. With Russia planning to blow the bridges on the way to Moscow, maybe he put it in the too hard basket and was made an offer he couldn't refuse.

[willedoo]

A possible correction to the above post. The way I read it, the offer of Belarus is for Prigozhin; his men who took part in the rebellion will be free from prosecution, so could stay in Russia. Seems odd that he rolled over just like that. Putler must have offered a substantial amount of cash via his lackey middleman in Belarus. I don't think it's the last we'll hear of Prigozhin's ambitions, unless they give him the window option at a later date.

[rgmwa]

He’d probably be safer moving to Ukraine. 

[facthunter]

I'm sure  all these experienced operators are aware of the "rules">  Nev

[Old Koreelah]

25 minutes ago, willedoo said:

A possible correction to the above post. The way I read it, the offer of Belarus is for Prigozhin; his men who took part in the rebellion will be free from prosecution, so could stay in Russia. Seems odd that he rolled over just like that. Putler must have offered a substantial amount of cash via his lackey middleman in Belarus. I don't think it's the last we'll hear of Prigozhin's ambitions, unless they give him the window option at a later date.

If Prigozhin’s men had any loyalty to him, seems he didn’t return it. How much loyalty will they show to their new masters?

[facthunter]

Mercenaries  do IT for money.  Nev

[onetrack]

This whole story must have so many behind-the-scenes twists, it makes John le Carre look like a fact writer. I wonder what's next? - an assassination or three?

 

Putin must be treating every person who gets within 10 metres of him as a potential assassin, he must be living in permanent paranoiac fear.

[facthunter]

One CAN hope. He doesn't seem to worry about Lives, Property damage and risk management. It's only JUST that those who live by the sword DIE by it. He's never displayed the bravery and sacrifice HE demands of others and has almost single handedly disgraced the  name "Russian".  Nev

[willedoo]

putin funded an ex convict to build a private army of murderers, rapists and thieves, and shows surprise when they turn on him.

[willedoo]

Wagner's march halfway to the capital highlighted just how weak and vulnerable the rulers in Moscow are. Almost their entire usable army is in Ukraine, and the only units left to protect Moscow are no match for a force like Wagners. If this deal didn't happen, Wagner tanks would be rolling into Moscow today and Rostov would be a war zone of Wagners vs the Chechens who were sent to restore the status quo. The only defences the Russian authorities could put up was tip trucks as roadblocks, excavators digging trenches across roads, blowing the odd bridge, and a rag-tag collection of reservists and police manning sand-bagged machine gun emplacements.

 

Russian air power was of limited use as the convoy was traveling with Pantsir air defence missile units with radar actively scanning on the move. They also had troops in light vehicles at the ready with MANPADS to shoot down helicopters and fixed wing aircraft. The Russian elites fled Moscow for St. Petersburg, including the P.M. and the drunken fool Medvedev. After all that, it's hard to see any other military units having the potential to stage a coup. None of them have the ability, discipline and cohesion that Wagners have. The Russian army is too loose and fragmented to pull something like that off, in my opinion.

 

Needless to say, in Moscow yesterday they had work crews taking down Wagner recruitment billboards.

[facthunter]

I think the point was made how weak Putin's defence really IS. Where does it go from Here?  Nev

[onetrack]

I'm interested in figuring out what 25,000 Wagner mercenaries are going to do in Belarus, now? Sitting around twiddling their thumbs is not what one expects hired mercenaries to do.

 

They are now effectively sidelined from the Ukrainian attack front, they're just observers in the overall scheme of things.

 

Who is going to fill the gap left on the Ukrainian front line by the removal of the Wagner forces? Demoralised Russian regular soldiers? - who have little interest in fighting a war where the objectives are so murky, and the population of Russia is only half-hearted in support, and their military leaders are incompetent? Plus, they're now facing a fresh Ukrainian advance that is backed by the latest and best Western weaponry and training?

 

I'm eagerly waiting for Mick Ryans assessment on this complete shambles on the Russian side. I'll wager he has plenty to say about allowing politicians and incompetent military leaders to run military strategy - particularly where those military leaders have been selected solely on the basis of their loyalty to their leader, not because of their outstanding military strategy skills.

[rgmwa]

I understood the deal was for Prigozhin to go into exile in Belarus (probably in a top floor penthouse suite with large windows) and for his troops to be absorbed into the Russian forces. I guess we’ll have to wait and see what happens.

[willedoo]

I think Wagners have been replaced around Bakhmut with regular Russian troops and Storm-Z troops. Neither would be much chop. Storm-Z is the penal battalions; just a Russian army version of Wagner's released prisoners. There was some talk of a Spetznaz unit replacing Wagners as well, but the Spetznaz units fighting in Ukraine haven't performed overly well throughout the war.

 

The problem with Wagners is that they are set up as an assault unit and are not much use in defensive roles. I don't know what Prigozhin will do with them as he can't take them all back to Africa where the money is. Best guess is the Russian MoD will try to poach them somehow.

 

It's a pity the mutiny didn't go further as it would have eventually thrown the Russian front in Ukraine into confusion and disarray and provided a good window for Ukraine to strike to their advantage,

[facthunter]

Maybe the Sick FAT Man of Belarus should be concerned for HIS future?   Nev

[facthunter]

Not just for his Physical health either. Nev

[onetrack]

The main thing is - the problem called Prigozhin is not going to go away anytime soon for Putin. Both Putin and the Russian military leaders have correctly viewed Prigozhin and Wagner forces as a huge power base that threatens them directly.

 

What is worse, is that Prigozhin has correctly called out the lies, deceit and corruption that is the ruling Russian elite today (a bit rich, of course, coming from a bloke who is a convicted thief).

 

But Prigozhin is just not a thorn in Putins saddle - he's a thorn capable of growing into a bloody great Bougainvillea tree that will gouge chunks out of him at every opportunity.

 

Putin is trying to kill off and remove this thorn - but it's going to be virtually impossible to do it - unless Prigozhin is delivered a nice cup of Polonium tea, or poked with a Bulgarian umbrella tip.

 

It's variously reported that Prigozhin controls somewhere between 25,000 and 50,000 Wagner mercenaries in the Russian region. There's no way he's going to let half of his fighters go join the regular Russian military - no matter what they promise. He knows - and he'll be telling his troops - that no-one can trust what the Russians tell them.

 

The Russians are not going to be able to amalgamate anywhere between 10,000 and 30,000 Wagner mercenaries into the Russian military, when Prigozhin has been telling them repeatedly - "These are the pricks who are getting you killed, by failing to deliver!"

 

And of course, if half the Wagner forces actually do defect to the Russian military, there goes half of Prigozhin's power base, and half of his ability to threaten the Kremlins leaders.

There's no way Prigozhin will allow this to happen, he will want to continue to keep his private army as it is, under his control, and allowing him to say what he wants against the Kremlin - and to give him the ability to further recruit civilian Russian opposition against the current Kremlin leaders. Be assured, Prigozhin won't be going quietly into the night, unless it's in a Russian-orchestrated coffin.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-25/wagner-march-on-moscow-putin-vulnerablities/102520386

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by onetrack

[Marty_d]

Oh, I reckon Putin or his proxy Lukashenko is brewing up the kettle right now.  Putin has been made a fool of (by someone else this time) and he won't be able to let that slip.  One or the other of these rabid dogs is a dead man walking.

[kgwilson]

My money is on the Prig. Putin has been able to manage the Russian media and the older ex Soviet population but the cracks are now quite visible. Wagners could quite easily generate a coup in Belarus as Lukas military is reportedly not that flash. The fact that it only took a few hours from Putins threat to arrest the Prig and his men to "alls well" and no action will be taken is a pretty good indication of the Prigs influence. Lapdog Lukashenko is desperate to maintain some sort of relevance with his involvement.

 

Not only that the Oligarchs are reputedly flat out recruiting their own armies.

 

This has to have an effect on the Russians fighting in Ukraine especially after the Prigs statements that the whole thing has been a charade. They are already being beaten back in the initial skirmishes of Ukraines counter offensive and their softening up strategy of major disruption of Russian logistics.

 

Prigozhins motivation is money and power and he seems pretty pissed off about Russian corruption. He won't stay long doing nothing in Belarus & he won't be going back to Ukraine. Africa & money beckons but so does his Russian loyalty and desire to weed out corruption despite the fact that he was once a theif.

 

And of course the only benefactor is UKRAINE.

Edited June 25, 2023 by kgwilson

[willedoo]

One better option for Prigozhin is to lose his lower quality troops to the Russian army then take his professionals back to Africa. Gold and diamonds beats polonium tea any day. Russia is a crazy enough country to be a traitor in the morning and be pardoned and cashed up by nightfall, so they would most likely let him ride away into the sunset if that's the option he preferred.

 

I think there's only one reason putler struck a deal with Prigozhin and that was to stop him rolling into Moscow and really upsetting the apple cart. There's also more to it than Prigozhin who is essentially just the front man and the public face of Wagner. putler knows Wagners are still there, are still heavily armed and still commanded by founder Dmitry Utkin who is a nasty piece of work. If anything happens to Prigozhin, it's on again. Wagners don't need Prigozhin to function. I think putin would fear Utkin much more than his old mate Prig. putin is not the one holding the big stick here.

Edited June 25, 2023 by willedoo