Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

This is Wagner's military field commander and the alleged founder of Wagners, Lt. Col. Dmitry Utkin , ex GRU special services officer, Ukrainian born. putler would lie in his bunker having nightmares about this bloke. Progozhin's insurance policy.

 

 

[willedoo]

There's theories that the mutiny was a false flag with putin in on it. The idea being that it attempts to shift blame and focus for the military failure from putin to Shoigu and Gerasimov, providing an excuse to dump them with putin saving face and remaining the hero in the eyes of the public.

 

One thing going against that theory is putin's address to the nation where he called the perpetrators traitors of the worse kind. It was a long speech and he appeared extremely angry. It was the most animated and geared up I've seen him since the start of the war and it didn't look like he was faking the anger.

[rgmwa]

Also Prigozhin’s statement that the Ukrainian invasion was based on the lie that they needed to de-Nazify the place directly undercut Putin’s narrative. Hard to see that being part of a false flag script.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Interesting.. I would say regardless where he is in tehe world, while Putin is alive and in control , he is a marked man.

[rgmwa]

Utkin looks even meaner than Prigozhin. I read that he is probably a neo-Nazi.

[onetrack]

Bellingcat, the Netherlands-based investigative journalism group, has a couple of interesting articles on both Utkin and Prigozhev. Bellingcat seem to think the actual control base for Wagner forces lies within a group of senior officers in the GRU, and even Prigozhev is just their frontman. But I also read where Progozhin has largely financed Wagners from his restaurant business earnings.

 

Doesn't seem likely that you could finance a private army from a few eateries, so it seems more likely that Wagner is actually funded by the Russian military or perhaps by corruption within the military. After all, private armies are often a good financial investment, they quite often come back with useful "war prizes".

 

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2020/08/14/pmc-structure-exposed/

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concord_Management_and_Consulting

[pmccarthy]

It may have been a commercial disagreement between Prig and the generals. He was not being paid as agreed, or they were preventing him from achieving targets for key payments. The resolution was simply a few hundred million dollars for him to go away.

[Bruce Tuncks]

My understanding of the turnaround was that the support prizhogin was expecting from other oligarchs etc was not forthcoming, so this made the offer from Belarus more enticing.

[onetrack]

Gee, I have to do more proof reading, I just realised I misspelt Prigozhin's name 3 times in my last post. Maybe I need to find a good nickname for him, Bruces "Prize-Hogin" sounds good.

[willedoo]

13 hours ago, onetrack said:

Doesn't seem likely that you could finance a private army from a few eateries, so it seems more likely that Wagner is actually funded by the Russian military or perhaps by corruption within the military. After all, private armies are often a good financial investment, they quite often come back with useful "war prizes".

It's possible the restaurants are just a side line. His catering company has had contracts catering for schools, government and the military involving billions of dollars. In one year alone, his company made more than one billion USD supplying meals and food to the military. I don't know if any direct government money went into the start-up, but once established, Wagners would be well paid for their work in Syria, Africa and Ukraine. Possibly a lot of equipment was given to them by the military. Wagners also do alright from gold and diamond revenue in Africa.

 

Edit: correction to the above reference to the military catering contract, the contract that year was for 1.2 billion USD, contract price, not profit.

Edited June 26, 2023 by willedoo

[willedoo]

I wonder if the Wagner mutiny is just the preface of things to come. Russia might be on the brink of a long period of instability. The leadership of the country is becoming increasingly weaker, and the military has almost ceased to be a united structure. The command structure is particularly fractured and inept. Added to the shortcomings of command is the low standard of ordinary troops plus corruption and negligence resulting in a severely degraded military capability. The result is that the state was incapable of stopping an armed column of rebels from advancing 600klm towards the capital in one day.

 

Russian military units that are supposed to be loyal to the state either turned a blind eye, or supported the rebels. Wagners is not the only private company; others have sprung up including a private army formed by state oil company Gazprom. putin's habit of surrounding himself with half-wit nodding yes men has left him vulnerable in a sea of shite. The problem for him is the tide might be just about to turn and wash more shite his way. Russia might be headed back to the wild west days of the 1990's. It looks like some cash got putin out of this fix in the short term, but to survive he will need more than bribes. He'll need raw power and that seems to be slipping away.

[spenaroo]

He needs a decent Military leadership,
and tactics that are not carried over from WW2.

the soldiers see the current leaders as incompetent. I think the Ukraine missile strike that killed the soldiers lined up for a speech from a leader who was several hours late is a good example. no wonder that Wagner who has the results and is actively calling out the stupidity, gets support.
plus its one thing to kill the enemy... they aren't us. Its another to kill someone the same, but in a different uniform.

And the spending has been on the wrong places. they are following the Nazis at the end of the war
spending on super weapons ( a hand full of "stealth" fighters. nuclear torpedo's, drone carrying submarines)
leaving the regular forces ill-equipped and outdated.

I don't see this as the end of Putin, But it may be the end of the "special military activity" in the eyes of the people. enough to wake them into seeing it as a war, and one that actually might effect them personally.

[willedoo]

Whatever happens to the current leadership, we are not going to see Russia become a peaceful, democratic country for a very long time, if ever. It's not a matter of just getting rid of putin; the rot is entrenched and layered right through. The west has a dream that some poster boy messiah will rise to power with the support of the people and lead the country to normality, but that's all it is, just a dream and a fantasy. It's not going to happen.

[kgwilson]

The best thing that can happen is happening. Continued ineptitude, infighting and jockeying for position with corruption at every level. Poorly trained troops and poor leadership are not helping them either. The only major issue IMO is that if there is a shit fight & Putin is pushed out, someone even worse may take the reins.

[rgmwa]

1 hour ago, willedoo said:

Whatever happens to the current leadership, we are not going to see (...) become a peaceful, democratic country for a very long time, if ever. It's not a matter of just getting rid of (...); the rot is entrenched and layered right through. The west has a dream that some poster boy messiah will rise to power with the support of the people and lead the country to normality, but that's all it is, just a dream and a fantasy. It's not going to happen.

At least Russia and the USA have something in common.

 

[facthunter]

Anything like that is not going to happen without calamity and massive instability. within Russia. Nev

[willedoo]

[willedoo]

This is the Ilyushin Il-22M signals intelligence plane that Wagners shot down on their march to Moscow. It's been reported that ten crew members died.

 

[spenaroo]

along with a couple of helicopters.

 

apparently they caused more damage to the Russian air force then Ukraine did in the previous month.
... which goes to show the equipment isn't the biggest failing in the Russian forces.

[Old Koreelah]

All conflicts seem to result in “friendly fire” casualties that cause long-term animosity between people who are technically on the same side. Most are honest mistakes, but his was deliberate killing of their own.

I doubt the Russians will be forgetting this any time soon. 

[facthunter]

The average Russian has NO say in anything at all.  Nev

[Old Koreelah]

25 minutes ago, facthunter said:

The average Russian has NO say in anything at all.  Nev

One reason Vodka is so popular.

[facthunter]

That's where you wake up frozen to death. How good is that?  Nev

[Marty_d]

To be fair, there are worse ways to go - especially in Russia.  I don't imagine Polonium poisoning is very nice.

[Bruce Tuncks]

i'm reminded of the guy who woke up dead with his dog...