Sanctions against Russia

[facthunter]

Thats ALL Putin Knows. Same as the Mafia. Nev

[kgwilson]

I just watched the ABC doco on Putin. Very much an American viewpoint but it gives an interesting comment on Putins character and ruthlessness throughout 5 US presidencys. Biden was there throughout and the only one to (finally) draw a line in the sand. Clinton didn't want to rock the boat, Bush was just a fool, Obama didn't want to rock the boat and Trump was/is a complete idiot.

[rgmwa]

Putin is betting that the West will eventually  get tired of the fight and walk away, and he may be right. If his man in the White House, Trump, gets back in next year he’ll definitely pull it off unless he gets done in by his own side first. 

[Marty_d]

Another good analysis by Mick Ryan on the ABC.

[willedoo]

A Russian newspaper has reported that Prigozhin got back all his money that the FSB confiscated when they raided his St.Petersburg headquarters. They say his driver arrived with a power of attorney and picked up the confiscated loot, reported as 10 billion rubles (111 million USD equivalent), hundreds of thousands of U.S. dollars and five bars of gold. That should keep him going for a while.

[willedoo]

When they talk about Russia having thousands of reserve tanks in storage, a lot of them are basically vintage scrap metal. The way things work there, anything of value inside them would have been stolen and sold years ago. Early in the war last year they needed to quickly replace tanks lost in battle. Even with the more modern T-72's they had trouble getting numbers operational again as engines and electronic components had been stolen.

 

[nomadpete]

What do you think about Mr Biden offering banned cluster bombs to Ukraine?

 

I hope that Voldomeyer says "Thanks but no thanks".

Would NATO or EU think it's OK to welcome such a nation into their fold if Ukraine uses munitions that will continue killing Ukrainians for decades into the future?

 

I think that US is showing a lack of ethics by offering these things in the first place.

[spacesailor]

The ' cluster 'debris is already there ! .

With love from ' mother Russiia ' .

And no one complained. 

spacesailor

[facthunter]

The Ukranians want them and they will be used within their own country. The "DUD" rate is supposed to be very low with the US product. Russia has Mines everywhere, already.  Nev

[nomadpete]

Anti personnel mines are the worst kind of pollution. They render land unusable from decades after a war ends. You can't justify using them just because Russia uses them.

And I hear that these particular devices have been banned, which means most people consider that they shouldn't be used.

Edited July 8, 2023 by nomadpete

[nomadpete]

Well from aljazeera news.....

"worth $800 million.

The move will likely trigger outrage from some allies and humanitarian groups that have long opposed the use of cluster bombs."

But USA military claimed that the gift....

 

"would not include older variants with (unexploded) rates that are higher than 2.35 per cent."

 

The USA has said they have 3 million cluster bombs to offer.

 

Nobody has suggested how many bomblets are in a shell. But these 155mm howitzer projectiles will deliver tens of millions of bomblets of which 98% explode. That leaves lots of small unexploded ordinance for kids and farmers to find when they return to their land. So their admitted 2% dud rate translates to thousands of potential civilian casualties.

 

Also note they are old stock, left over from Iraq.

Edited July 8, 2023 by nomadpete

[spacesailor]

ALL TRUE .

America is getting rid of their stockpile. 

spacesailor

[onetrack]

The Vietnamese have lost 100,000 people to unexploded ordnance from the Vietnam War, that is set off accidentally. We buried whole minefields of M16 "jumping jack" mines to "get rid of the minefields" when we left Vietnam in 1972/73. Those M16's are still there, probably down 2.5 to 3M originally - but getting closer to the surface all the time as the country erodes away.

 

Whole new suburbs are built in Vietnam with serious quantities of UXO under them. Cluster bombs and Anti-Personnel mines are the worst invention of mankind.

In Vietnam, we even had AP mines with plastic casings, so you couldn't pick them up using a mine detector. They were just blast mines, not shrapnel mines, designed to just blow your foot off.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/26/50-years-after-the-vietnam-war-ended-its-bombs-continue-to-kill

[willedoo]

1 hour ago, nomadpete said:

 

Nobody has suggested how many bomblets are in a shell.

Depending on the variant, either 72 or 88 M42/M46 grenades.

[willedoo]

The safest, most effective anti personnel round is the M30A1 rocket with the Alternative Warhead (AW). Each rocket air bursts 182,000 BB sized inert tungsten balls. The only problem is that a HIMARS is needed to launch it and Ukraine has very few of those, and I think the U.S. only had limited M30A1 supplies to give to Ukraine. I suspect they've run out of them as there hasn't been any new footage of mass Russian troop casualties for a few months.

 

The DPICM 155mm cluster munition has the advantage that it's lots cheaper and more available than the M30A1, and can be fired from anything that takes 155mm shells. The downside of course is the legacy of UXO. They are an awful weapon because of the long term risk to civilians, but I hope any potentially outraged allies save a percentage of that outrage for the Russians who have been using cluster and phosphorous incendiary bombs in Ukraine for a long time now. If those outraged allies had got off their butts and given Ukraine the weaponry to expel the Russians in a timely manner when they needed it, they wouldn't have to be delivering cluster munitions now. The slow drip-feed of arms has led to the current situation where Russia has had months to construct massive layered defences and minefields.

[Old Koreelah]

21 minutes ago, onetrack said:

The Vietnamese have lost 100,000 people to unexploded ordnance from the Vietnam War..

- in addition to the countless people maimed each year. Yet for decades after that war, all we heard from the US was outrage at their former enemy about a few GIs being MIA. No mention of the carnage that had inflicted.
 

Has America ever paid reparations to Vietnam? 
I believe the Quakers, despite never participating because of their pacifist beliefs, provided lots of post-war aid to Vietnamese farmers, including heaps of shovels, which are less likely to set off mines than the traditional hoes.

21 minutes ago, onetrack said:

In Vietnam, we even had AP mines with plastic casings, so you couldn't pick them up using a mine detector. They were just blast mines, not shrapnel mines, designed to just blow your foot off.

These insidious weapons are designed not to kill, but to maim; military planners know it’s more economical to injure rather than kill an enemy.  
An injured solder needs care, which takes several out of action. I suspect that’s one reason for the switch from 7.62mm ammo to 556.

 

There should be a special place in Hell for some people in the weapons industry; during that war I read American accounts of their planes dropping millions of small, plastic booby traps. Brightly coloured, even moulded to resemble fruit or toys, they were designed to appeal to the young kids carrying munitions down the Ho Chi Mihn Trail.

[willedoo]

4 minutes ago, Old Koreelah said:

An injured solder needs care, which takes several out of action. I suspect that’s one reason for the switch from 7.62mm ammo to 556.

Weight is one factor. For a given weight, an infantryman can carry a lot more ammunition with 5mm rounds.

[onetrack]

The 5.56mm round actually has more knockdown "punch" than a 7.62mm round because of its higher velocity. It doesn't really make a lot of difference if you're hit with a 5.56mm or a 7.62mm round, you won't be getting up again in a hurry, if hit by either one. The 7.62mm has slightly better hitting power at longer distances - we were told the 7.62mm still has effective killing power at 300M, but it takes a good careful steady shot to kill an enemy combatant at 300M.

[nomadpete]

I maintain that regardless of the background rationale, cluster bombs are unconscionable.

 

From Willie's numbers - at least 72 grenades from each 155 projectile.....

 

72 x 3,000,000 shells = 216,000,000 grenades. Of which at least 2% will remain as UXO.

That leaves 4,320,000 live grenades lying around, primed and ready to go off. Probably mostly in the mud, to be 'discovered' by innocent civilians.

 

I know war is crazy and the Russians have already been using cluster munitians, but to turn their own land into a minefield is beyond crazy.

[Old Koreelah]

I once used to think it a good thing that armies would run out of ammunition, but the world cannot afford any win for Putin. 

South Korea is under pressure to send some of its huge stockpile of ammo; with a neighbour like theirs, I understand their reluctance.

[willedoo]

I think the powers that be have learned a lot from this war. Mainly about the need to have large stocks of artillery ammunition on hand, or the ability to quickly ramp up production. This war has been mainly an artillery war, and whoever runs out of ammunition loses. Another more minor issue is having enough spare replacement barrels and manufacturing ability. The heavy emphasis on artillery might only apply when facing off against Russia. A conflict with China would probably be very different.

 

The problem in Ukraine is that regardless of all the modern technology available in modern warfare, it still comes down to one factor - enemy troops in trenches have to be physically evicted. putler has had a long grace period for a few months to construct a barrier of trenches, tank traps, minefields and dug in artillery along most of the front line. The defences are layered and up to 30klm deep in some places.

 

The Russians also have force numbers now. They might not be top quality, but they are filling those trenches, foxholes and dugouts with troops. Even though a lot of them are hungry, demoralised, under trained and under equipped, they are not going anywhere and have to be evicted by force, one by one. They don't have any option but to stay put, as they will be shot by their own side or locked in a hole in the ground if they retreat. Russia now has a reasonable force ratio to hold ground, if not enough for major offensives. That was their problem early last year; they invaded with an inferior force ratio of probably around 2:1 in Ukraine's favour instead of the reverse. A lot of things haven't changed since WW1.

[facthunter]

History tells us that stopping supplies works well. THIS episode by Putin can hardly be taken as PLANNED. (3 days and they will welcome you with roses)..  Don't start a war when you have to keep so many  secrets from your own populace which is only kept in line by FORCE and ignorance of the reality.. Nev

[willedoo]

24 minutes ago, facthunter said:

History tells us that stopping supplies works well. THIS episode by Putin can hardly be taken as PLANNED. (3 days and they will welcome you with roses)..  Don't start a war when you have to keep so many  secrets from your own populace which is only kept in line by FORCE and ignorance of the reality.. Nev

Nev, I hope we see that situation soon where Ukraine's degradation of the Russian supply lines reaches a tipping point. It's obvious by now that putin is not going to give up while he's still got even the smallest chance left. But there must be some point where it becomes not viable to keep going. I can't see the Russians leaving logically. They will possibly try to sustain a fighting retreat, trying to hang on to whatever they can. That scenario would drag on for years. To remove them from Ukraine in any near future would need a total collapse of their lines, logistics and command. That could happen if Ukraine's backers get serious and hold their nerve.

[rgmwa]

As the war drags on, I'm becoming more pessimistic about Ukraine ever getting the Russians out of their country unless something happens to break what is now almost a stalemate. Unless Putin gets deposed by his own side, he now has time on his side to wait for the West's resolve to slowly diminish as they run out of ammunition and equipment themselves. It's now been 500 days, and Ukraine's counteroffensive is obviously going nowhere fast due to thousands of mines, WW1 style Russian defences and lack of air superiority. Meanwhile Russia keeps sending over barrages of cheap drones that require expensive missiles to intercept and which can't stop all of them.  It's not a good situation.

[willedoo]

The Russians were slow to learn at first, but they've eventually adapted tactics in some areas. They send a heap of cheap imported Iranian attrack drones as decoys to deplete Ukrainian air defence stocks, meanwhile they add a few Kalibr cruise missiles into the mix.