Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

12 minutes ago, rgmwa said:

As the war drags on, I'm becoming more pessimistic about Ukraine ever getting the Russians out of their country unless something happens to break what is now almost a stalemate. Unless Putin gets deposed by his own side, he now has time on his side to wait for the West's resolve to slowly diminish as they run out of ammunition and equipment themselves. It's now been 500 days, and Ukraine's counteroffensive is obviously going nowhere fast due to thousands of mines, WW1 style Russian defences and lack of air superiority. Meanwhile Russia keeps sending over barrages of cheap drones that require expensive missiles to intercept and which can't stop all of them.  It's not a good situation.

I think as long as putin stays in power and can supply men and equipment, he'll keep plodding on. He's banking on the long game working in his favour. For him, it's now all or nothing. If he loses now, he's stuffed, but if he can outlast the west he will have the opportunity later to rebuild their military losses to the point of having an effective defence force again.

[facthunter]

With Counties all around who really hate his guts and most of the world unable to believe a word he says or a deal he makes .

.Merkel gave him  a good go which wouldn't look like a good idea now . Nev

[pmccarthy]

Ukraine is making steady and increasing progress. The more ammo and weapons the West can send them, the sooner this will be over.

[willedoo]

It looks like Turkey is not as close to Russia as they once were. They've released the Azov POW's who were supposed to stay in Turkey until the end of the war by an agreement with Russia. They're also stepping up arms supplies to Ukraine, with the latest announcement being the supply of Turkish T-155 self-propelled howitzers. putler is running out of mates. Erdogan might think there's no point in supporting a loser any longer.

[willedoo]

I read that the cluster munitions being supplied to Ukraine are the M864, the variant with the smaller mount of sub-munitions (72). The reason for the smaller payload is that the M864 variant shell has a base bleed system to increase range by 20% to 35%. The lost payload space is to house a gas generator at the base of the shell. It doesn't create any noteworthy thrust; once ignited, it bleeds gas into the low pressure wake of the projectile and by reducing turbulence, the base drag is reduced. The sub-munitions  are dual purpose,  both armor-defeating and antipersonnel.

[facthunter]

I think they are now not opposing Sweden's entry to  NATO. (Turkeye)  Nev

[facthunter]

 What the Ukranians want is more important than our mutterings . They are the ones suffering and dying for 500 days. People fight hard when it's their homeland being taken. Putin will NEVER  treat them well or fairly  Nev

[Bruce Tuncks]

I really am unhappy about the cluster bombs. I wish that russia alone used them and we sent more fighter planes instead.

[Old Koreelah]

Putin is not beaten yet. He might be hoping to hold out till the accursed Republicans regain the White House. He knows that America has a short concentration span when it comes to war; the US has been defeated by peasant armies from Vietnam to Afghanistan.

 

Lots can happen before Ukraine evicts the Russians. As Western allies concentrate on Ukraine, they have good reason to not run down their strategic reserves of missiles and ammunition.

China is becoming more assertive over areas it claims were former former territories. Taiwan and the SC Sea are known flash points, but don’t be surprised if Zi takes back a huge slice of land around Vladivostok.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/10/24/as-russia-gets-weaker-xi-jinping-may-forgo-taiwan-to-grab-eastern-russia/?sh=204dc6886

 

[willedoo]

Ultimately, it's Ukraine's decision to use the cluster munitions. The only issue with them is long term risk to the public because of UXO. Ukraine has had to weigh up risk vs benefit. On the one hand, there is a long term passive risk of civilian casualties from UXO caused by the cluster munitions. On the other hand, as long as they have the Russians on their land, civilians will continue to be maimed, killed, raped and tortured in numbers. Ukraine has already had more than 9,000 civilians killed, including 500 children. Added to that is a much larger number seriously maimed and injured for life. The cluster munitions could make a big difference on the battlefield, and Ukraine is prepared to take the long term risk on cluster munitions to help stop the killing of their people now.

 

Any future civilian toll from the UXO  would be  much lower than that of letting Russia bomb their cities for another year. Even if the UXO toll was 1,000 in ten years, it's still a better option than losing 10,000 per year to the Russians.

[willedoo]

This article gives a good overview of the cluster munition deal.

 

https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a44465526/why-is-the-us-sending-ukraine-cluster-munitions/

[willedoo]

Zelensky's joke:

 

Two Jewish guys from Odesa meet up. One asks the other:

   "So what's the situation? What are people saying?"

         - and he replies " What are people saying? They are saying it's a war."

    " What war?'

          - " Russia is fighting NATO."

    " Are you serious?"

          - " Yes, yes! Russia is fighting NATO!"

    " So how's it going?"

          - " Well....70,000 Russian soldiers are dead. Their missile stockpile has almost been depleted. A lot of their equipment has been damaged and blown up!"

     " And what about NATO?"

          - " What about NATO? NATO hasn't even arrived yet!"    

            

          

 

[willedoo]

putler's plan to keep NATO at bay is backfiring. Erdogan has agreed to send Sweden’s NATO membership application to the Turkish parliament for ratification. Once Sweden is a member, Russia's naval ships leaving St. Petersburg will be sailing past NATO countries all the way to the Atlantic Ocean.

[facthunter]

Putler's done something for NATO that no one else could accomplish in such a short time. Must be one of the best "Own Goals" in History. Nice LEGACY for VLAD. Nev

[willedoo]

According to CNN, German weapons manufacturer Rheinmetall are going to open an armored vehicle plant in Ukraine within 3 months. The plant will be located in the west of the country. Its estimated cost is $218 million. Production capacity will be about 400 tanks per year. Rheinmetall is also going to train Ukrainians in the manufacture and servicing of the armoured equipment.

 

Currently, Ukraine's armoured vehicle and tank manufacturing facilities are in Kharkiv, very close to the Russian border. It would make sense for the future to move critical defence industries out of Kharkiv and locate them in the west of the country. If Ukraine can expel the Russians, they might be able to create a future deterrent by having a large domestic military manufacturing industry. A lot of the long range weapons they have had to beg for might eventually be replaced by domestically designed and produced versions. One thing they would have learned in this war is that a lot of Ukrainian blood can be shed if relying on the whims of the west to drip feed arms to them. I would think the ultimate goal for Ukraine would be to have the means to defend themselves without relying on the permission of others.

[willedoo]

One good thing about the Rheinmetall deal with Germany is that the tanks will be in Ukraine if a future conflict breaks out. The Germans can stop Ukraine from exporting the tanks to a third country, but they can't stop them using them in their own country.

[willedoo]

These posters have been appearing in the streets near the Russian Consulate in Sydney.

 

Edited July 11, 2023 by willedoo

[willedoo]

Another Russian general has been deleted in a storm shadow strike yesterday on a command centre in Berdyansk on the Azov Sea coast. The Lieutenant General was the deputy commander of the southern military district. The Russians have one more general rank than we do with the addition of a Colonel General rank. In ascending order of rank they have Major General, Lieutenant General, Colonel General, and Army General. Highest military rank above all is Marshal of the Russian Federation, but they've only ever had one Marshall and none since.

[onetrack]

I see where someone took out one of the Russian sub commanders, who was responsible for lobbing missiles on Ukraine. He was silly enough to put up his jogging trials and times on an App, and someone filled him full of lead while he was out jogging. Funnily enough, no-one saw anything, and no cameras in the area have provided any record of the assassin/s. I'd say they did the planning particularly well.

 

Of course, the Russians have nailed a 64 yr old "suspect" who will no doubt "confess" to the murder - and they claim the Ukrainians had nothing to do with the murder. Funnily enough, the Ukrainians knew all the details of the killing, including the timing and weather conditions (heavy rain) at the time.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/11/senior-russian-draft-officer-shot-dead-while-running-in-park

 

 

[spenaroo]

9 hours ago, onetrack said:

I see where someone took out one of the Russian sub commanders, who was responsible for lobbing missiles on Ukraine. He was silly enough to put up his jogging trials and times on an App, and someone filled him full of lead while he was out jogging. Funnily enough, no-one saw anything, and no cameras in the area have provided any record of the assassin/s. I'd say they did the planning particularly well.

 

Of course, the Russians have nailed a 64 yr old "suspect" who will no doubt "confess" to the murder - and they claim the Ukrainians had nothing to do with the murder. Funnily enough, the Ukrainians knew all the details of the killing, including the timing and weather conditions (heavy rain) at the time.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/11/senior-russian-draft-officer-shot-dead-while-running-in-park

 

 

is that the one where the head of Ukrainian intelligence "liked" his run on the app...
just to add insult to well killing

[nomadpete]

Today Aljazeera reports:-

 

Traffic on Russia’s Crimea bridge stopped amid reports of blasts

Officials report ’emergency’ on bridge linking Crimea to Russian mainland and urge residents not to travel via the overpass.

[willedoo]

I think it's the span bringing traffic from Russia.

 

 

Edited July 17, 2023 by willedoo

[willedoo]

I just saw some Russian video footage of the damage and it looks like both sides are out of action. The span opposite the badly damaged span has also shifted. It's split open at the join and dropped a bit. First screengrab is the badly damaged span, second one is the span beside it.

 

The worst span will be out of action for a few months; the other one, at a guess, a couple of months. All they have to do now is knock out the rail section. putler will not be amused.

[willedoo]

The current rumours are that it was naval surface drones that did the damage.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Yes.. I saw some YT footage of tracers being fired at them.. Not sure  of its authenticity, though.