Sanctions against Russia

[onetrack]

As always, there will be a major change in the course of the war, that comes entirely out of left field - and the sudden death of Putin or even his assassination (in an internal power struggle) is entirely likely to be that left field occurrence.

 

Russia will then give up the war (remember, it's driven entirely by Putin, and the desire for the war effort dies with him), and end up still reasonably intact - but financially and economically weakened - while the States surrounding Russia that were formerly Russian satellites, will see their chance to become emboldened and more independent.

 

The oligarchs will appoint a successor to Putin and things will continue in the "Russian way" of treating the peasants like mushrooms, and ensuring that all the countries major economic assets still stay in those oligarchs hands.

When it comes time to find someone to drag out for war crimes, all fingers will point to the dead Putin, and the other actors will claim they were only operating under duress.

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by onetrack

[Old Koreelah]

Let’s hope they put that plan into operation soon!

[onetrack]

Any assassination won't start being planned until it becomes obvious the oligarchs finances and ability to operate, are going seriously downhill, and their lifestyle is becoming threatened.

I believe more needs to done by the West and NATO nations to ensure the oligarchs suffer steadily increasing losses. The seizure and sale of a few luxury cruisers hasn't really dented their lifestyle properly, yet.

 

Edited July 30, 2023 by onetrack

[Old Koreelah]

Right now, some of Russia’s neighbouring countries are swamped with draft dodgers. Their welcome might be wearing thin.
After this Special Military Operation is over, huge numbers of Russians are likely to go home. I doubt they’ll be too popular with those who stayed and especially those who fought. Hopefully, they’ll bring an overdue outside perspective to their country.

[nomadpete]

As far a assassiations go, I am surprised that Zelenskyy is still alive.

He is more likely to die soon than Mr Putin.

[facthunter]

Who ever killed Zelenski would be torn to pieces in his own country and who did in Putin  would be doing the world a favour but would best be quiet about it.  Nev

[nomadpete]

Agreed, Nev.

But I hazard a guess there is a bigger pot of money on Zelenskyy's head.

[Jerry_Atrick]

From teh articles of journos that have visited him, the security is very tight indeed. I also recall reading articles about how the Russians had made quite a few attempts at locating him and to kill hius wife and himself. I would imagine this is a daily occurence now.

 

[Bruce Tuncks]

It took some time, but I finally found that Ukraine had signed the nuclear non-proliferation treaty many years ago. It seems to me that this treaty has done nothing to help them from being invaded and subject to nuclear threats by Russia.

What does Australia get from having signed this treaty?

[facthunter]

Support for  like minded others GIVEN and be on the side of  SANITY. Look at the mess the Russia-Ukraine war has caused and imagine one on a much bigger scale We are ALL dependent on each other.   Nev

[Bruce Tuncks]

Nev, are you saying it was correct to sign the non-proliferation treaty for altruistic reasons?

[facthunter]

When you don't have any bombs,  why not align with those who have NO bombs.?   Nev

[Bruce Tuncks]

I would agree with that but you don't need a treaty which I think has been proven worthless.

Personally, I would have a thousand specially made drones with dirty bombs in them and inertial navigation systems to rain onto the victory parades in biejing, washington or moscow or wherever.

I reckon these drones skimming the sea surface would mainly get there, but you would only need one to avoid being shot down to do the thing.

[facthunter]

Thorough Psych test for LEADERS of things might help. Humans are psycho when they get power. Nev

[onetrack]

I would re-define facthunters statement to - "people who actively and aggressively seek positions of power and leadership, in many instances, display sociopathic and psychopathic tendencies, long before they become leaders or holders of power".

 

It seems that only those who become "accidental" leaders, due to unusual circumstances, are the ones who possess lower levels of sociopathic and psychopathic tendencies - and these people seem to make better leaders.

[Bruce Tuncks]

Bugger, Nev you have destroyed my last remaining thing that made me think things were not going to blow up... Those who are ( like Putin) dictators have such enormous power that it is hard to see any improvement in their lot, so ( I hope ) they will prefer to not launch a nuclear war.

But if power makes them insane, this might not apply!

I always thought that it was poor people who went the silliest when getting great power, as Hitler and Stalin showed. Those who were born rich ( like Churchill) seemed to be less insane as time went by ... I dunno where Putin is on this scale, but I worry, and Trump was silly but born rich I think. Maybe my theory is not so good huh.

[facthunter]

Better to  find the right person and talk into/ force them to take the job than TAKE the most anxious to get it because there's often a Hidden agenda  motivating the keen ones.. IF their plan goes awry, they pull the Temple down as they leave.  Like "A.Bot" If I cant have  it, can I keep the WRECK?."  Nev

Edited July 31, 2023 by facthunter

[Old Koreelah]

4 hours ago, facthunter said:

Better to  find the right person and talk into/ force them to take the job than TAKE the most anxious to get it because there's often a Hidden agenda  motivating the keen ones…

Harry Truman is one of the best examples of that; promoted because of his outstanding ability, he found himself in the top job when FDR died. Nobody expected much from him, but he proved to be one of the best the US ever had.

After handing over to Ike, he drove himself and his wife to his small hometown. Besides his small army pension from serving in WWI, he was broke.

A grateful Congress created the first Presidential Pension and made sure it was also paid to Hoover, so Harry would not be embarassed.

[red750]

US: No more military aid for Ukraine  - Z-LIVE NEWS AU

Donald Trump, the former U.S. President, has called on Republican members of Congress to focus their investigation on U.S. President Joe Biden.

 

The demand is to suspend military aid to Ukraine until the White House cooperates in the investigation of Biden and his family. Trump is facing charges over his handling of classified documents and hush money payments. A special prosecutor is investigating Trump’s role in storming the Capitol in Washington in January 2021 and his efforts to influence the outcome of the 2020 presidential election as the German news website tagesschau.de reported.

 

Moreover, the affair surrounding the Russia contacts of Donald Trump’s confidants continues to put pressure on the U.S. administration, as the German news website tagesschau.de reported. Trump reacted angrily to corresponding media reports and rejected the accusations. In a Twitter post, he called the reporting by the “false news media” conspiracy theories and blind hatred. He stressed that any possible connection to Russia should be dismissed as “nonsense” and was merely an attempt to explain the election defeat of his Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton.

 

Trump accused both the “New York Times” and the “Washington Post” of illegally obtaining information. He stressed that the real scandal was that confidential information was carelessly shared by intelligence agencies, which he called un-American. The Russian president’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, also firmly rejected the reports. He stressed to journalists in Moscow that anonymous information should not be believed because the newspaper report was not based on facts.

[Bruce Tuncks]

I reckon every bit of news from Ukraine about how bad the russians are should be hurting trump. Mind you, although I would not have voted for him, I well understood that some of those who did were hoping for anti-corruption action...."drain the swamp" resonated with me.

Well what a big mistake huh, he was as corrupt as any we have seen.

I don't think he will ever get back.

[Marty_d]

I really hope you're right about him not getting back in, but I'm not going to underestimate the stupidity of the US voting public. 

[facthunter]

What about the whole Republican Party? Trump says HE has DIRT on all of them and IF HE gets back he will revenge himself on those who didn't help him enough (in his TINY mind.)  Nev

[Bruce Tuncks]

I'm so sure that he will not get back that I will bet a bottle of red....  any takers? I bet the won wine would taste extra good!

[facthunter]

Everyone thought that the first time. IF HE gets soundly defeated, ONE wine won't be enough and IT has to be Champagne even though I like a good Shiraz. Nev

[octave]

I think the Republicans have a real problem.  Trump is way ahead in poling for the primaries.    The far-right policies such as limiting women's reproductive rights anti trans etc. are very popular with a large section of registered Republicans and MAGA crowd.  This is why Desantis is trying to move further right than Trump.  This is an advantage when it comes to the Republican primaries.  The problem is that these things are very unpopular with the electorate as a whole.   in other words, the policies that will get a presidential candidate elected in the Republican primaries are also the policies that will likely ensure that Trump loses in the presidential election.