Sanctions against Russia

[Bruce Tuncks]

I reckon the ukranian surface drones show that people with navy ships ( US, EU, Aus etc ) don't want to know about these things.

On a similar tack, is there a country in the world which uses greed AGAINST the drug sellers? The perps do it for money, but a country has unlimited money and can offer new identities and immunities as added inducements to betray the bosses.

I don't think it should be an even fight, all but the loyal idiots would be scrambling for the better deal. My men's exercise group would all be out trying to buy drugs for the rewards and the cops would be lording it over all.

[Bruce Tuncks]

Spacy, Don Dunstan actually was the premier and he tried to stop subdivisions happening on the best farmlands ( around Elizabeth ) by establishing Monarto for future growth.

I well remember how he was pilloried by the papers and this eventually helped with the downfall of labor in the state.

[willedoo]

The Ukrainian deputy prime minister has told the Ukrainian people to prepare for a long protracted war. Since the Ukrainian offensive began, they've realised how difficult it is to break through the massive Russian defences. They seemed to be a bit over confidant before the start, but that might have also had an element of propaganda spin. There was a general assumption that Ukraine would rapidly break through the Russian lines leading to a breakdown of the Russian defence, but that's clearly not going to happen at this stage.

 

The so called Surovikin Line stretches from the Dnipro delta to Belarus and consists of trenches, minefields, tank barriers and entrenched artillery. Mostly there's a forward defence line with the main line of defence further to the rear. So far Ukraine has had to fight for every inch of land and have liberated a handful of settlements and captured open ground, but the cost has been high in people and equipment. In the first couple of weeks of the offensive, they lost 20% of the foreign supplied equipment that was committed to battle. Taking into account the uncommitted reserve forces, that number would reduce to probably less than 10% of total foreign equipment.

 

Since their early failures to breach the line, the Ukrainians have reverted to their former tactics of attrition, concentrating on strikes on logistics, supply, and command and control posts. The time for a full frontal assault on Russian lines was back last year when they had major success in Kherson and Kharkiv province, but they had to stop because they didn't have the trained forces, supplies and equipment to go further. This gave Surovikin the opportunity to dig in and it's ironic that the one capable general who has saved putin's butt now spends his days under house arrest for to his connection with Wagner's aborted coup attempt.

 

While the west has been procrastinating and drip feeding needed equipment to Ukraine, the Russian excavators, barrier construction crews and mine layers haven't stopped working. This plays right into putin's hands as he's best at the long game. He's banking on sticking it out to the end and outlasting the west, and so far, he's achieving that bit by bit. One problem facing Ukraine is that with mobilisation, putin has access to unlimited meat to fill his trenches. They may be low quality troops, but the strength of the fortifications means that Ukraine must lose well trained and equipped troops to force them out. It was hoped that a lot of the Russian line would collapse due to the poor quality of their troops, but they are not running as the Russians have made sure there's nowhere to run to. In a repeat of their WW2 tactics, retreating Russian troops are shelled and fired on from their own side, or imprisoned in a hole in the ground at best. Their best hope of surviving is to hold the line or be captured alive if it's taken.

 

It's sad that there's not some overarching united body in charge of supplying equipment to Ukraine. A lot of the equipment they are using now, at one stage was refused supply with all sorts of excuses like 'it will lead to escalation'. And now they have that equipment and all those months have been lost due to western hand wringing. Biden still won't provide ATACMS which is a game changer Ukraine needs. The stupid thing is that they will eventually be supplied just like all the other delayed equipment. I really hope the delays and indecision are are result of either incompetence or technical issues, and not by design to prolong the war. If the planners and suppliers in the west think they can stretch it out to weaken Russia's army, it might backfire on them.

 

Here's an up to date map of the Russian fortifications.

 

Edited August 18, 2023 by willedoo

[Bruce Tuncks]

Thanks Willedoo. I'm surprised that fixed defences are still viable more than 100 years after WW1.

When I saw drone attacks on trenches ( I think it was the Azerbijan war) it seemed to me to be the very end of such things. These days, with drones reporting to artillery, I would still have said that fixed defences were obsolete....  well, looks as if I was wrong huh.

[Jerry_Atrick]

On 18/8/2023 at 6:02 AM, willedoo said:

It's sad that there's not some overarching united body in charge of supplying equipment to Ukraine.

Indeed, although I would say there was, but they didn't step up to the plate. NATO, of which member countries are supplying the lion's share of the equipment and supplies, logistically it would have mad sense. Of course, NATO itself didn't think it could be seen as directly involved in the effort as Putin used them as the justification for his special military operation, although what is quite so special about it, I am not sure. 

 

The US has allows the Danes and Dutch to provide the Ukrainians with F16s, but it will be 6 months before the pilots will be ready to use them. That leaves it to March next year. This is a decision which has been mulled for months and why they couldn't select pilots to train earlier is beyond me. This also gives 6 months of time for the Russians to further prepare. Sometimes I wonder if the west is really wanting Ukraine to win this war. If I was Ukrainian at the moment, I would be wondering if North Korea would have been a more reliable partner, especially with Sarkozy's cosying up to Putin and was it the chief of staff suggesting Ukraine forever forget about Crimea. 

 

On another note, I read on the ABC news app, but can't find it on their website, that there is now real dread of the Wagner prisoner recruits returning to their homes. They have been granted pardons as a result of their service, there is no support to reintegrate them into society, and some of them committed atrocities. Apart from an insight into Russian life, where, for example, one victim was totured for hours before being killed and dismembered, in that time, no police responded to calls from residents who could hear the blood curdling screams for hours. And the article then claimed all sorts of violence in normal life is hushed under the carpets in Russia all the time. Not really a nice place at all, apparently. 

 

It also shows - if people are not willing to stand up because of the potential cost, the cost is much higher later.  Those in the areas the prisoners are returning to may be about to find out.

 

 

[willedoo]

2 hours ago, Bruce Tuncks said:

Thanks Willedoo. I'm surprised that fixed defences are still viable more than 100 years after WW1.

When I saw drone attacks on trenches ( I think it was the Azerbijan war) it seemed to me to be the very end of such things. These days, with drones reporting to artillery, I would still have said that fixed defences were obsolete....  well, looks as if I was wrong huh.

It's mainly the minefields that are the problem. The armour and vehicles get stuck in the minefields, then the artillery opens up on them. They only have a limited amount of mine clearing machines and they are just as vulnerable to artillery as anything else. Apart from laid mines, both sides have artillery launched mines. Each shell holds a few mines which exit out the rear end at a certain time. They are on a self destruct timer after a set time to make it easier for the side that launches them to advance. It makes it costly to whichever side is on the offensive. Defence is definitely the safest option of the two.

 

One of the biggest problems for Ukraine is lack of air support for their offensive. With air support, they would be able to cover the ground equipment and give the Ukrainians a decent chance of breaching the line. The U.S. has only just now given approval for countries to supply F-16 fighters to Ukraine. If the U.S. had ok'd them back when they were requested instead of making lame excuses, by now the Ukrainian pilots would be trained, the F-16's would be providing air support, and the Ukrainians would have already breached the lines and be knocking at Crimea's door.

 

The problem with the Americans and Ukraine is that there's no good alternative American leadership, just one that's less worse than the other. Biden has been weak and indecisive, but at least equipment is flowing, albeit in drip feed mode. Despite Republicans saying their support for Ukraine is bipartisan, I don't believe them for a minute. If they win back the presidency next year, it could be goodbye Ukraine, hello Russia.

[nomadpete]

Sadly, America needs a big bad bogeyman threat, to try to reunite the states against a common outside enemy.

'Hello USSR' might be useful to them next election.

[Bruce Tuncks]

Those russians sure are doing a good job of being the bad guys huh. I wonder why the republicans, who I think represent the rich, are more friendly to Russia than they used to be.

[nomadpete]

There is nothing quite like having a war to unite a country. Well, as long as it is not a 'civil' war.

Even a perceived war will do the trick, like the cold war.

 

When the ruskies claim Ukraine as it's own, old mate Puttin will feel he has recreated his beloved USSR.

 

Then USA can use the good old, well entrenched fear of communists ploy to get their rebellious plebs under control.

[Jerry_Atrick]

7 hours ago, Bruce Tuncks said:

Those russians sure are doing a good job of being the bad guys huh. I wonder why the republicans, who I think represent the rich, are more friendly to Russia than they used to be.

There's money to be made in them thar hills

[willedoo]

The Ukrainian strike drones are getting good long range capability. A couple of drones hit the Soltsi airbase which is not far south of St. Petersburg; the strike was more than 650 klm from the Ukrainian border. It's one of the Russian bomber bases that hosts Tu-22M3 bombers that have been launching cruise missiles at Ukraine. There's photos with a big plume of smoke, so there was damage.

 

I often read the opinions of one particular ex U.S. defence contractor who is usually fairly accurate. He pointed out that the plume of smoke is not consistent with jet fuel, so bombers were probably not hit. According to him, the smoke is consistent with RDX plastic explosive that is in the Kh-22 cruise missiles that the bombers use. He says the missiles are stored unfueled (the fuel would burn black like jet fuel) and satellite photos show missiles stored in the open. Possibly they've hit a cruise missile munition dump. I think those cruise missiles cost around a million dollars each.

 

[willedoo]

An interesting quote from the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell: "China is a real geopolitical player, while Russia is an economic dwarf, it is like a gas station whose owner has an atomic bomb."

[onetrack]

The main problem is he's a deranged gas station owner and no-one knows what he'll do with that atom bomb. I would expect that the largest proportion of the worlds leaders believes that Putin is bluffing over A-bomb use, but he's deranged enough to let a few off. The thing is, A-bombs can be made quite small and only affect a relatively small area.

 

Check out the YooToob video, "280mm Atomic Cannon", from 1952 (also known as the M65 Nuclear Artillery weapon). I have no doubt Russia has small nukes, just big enough to damage wide areas of Ukraine without affecting Russia.

I wasn't aware until about 25 years ago, when I started dealing in U.S. military surplus, and studied up on the "Federal Supply Classes", that the Americans have Nuclear Depth Charges amongst the FSC's.

[willedoo]

Re: the training of Ukrainian F-16 pilots. The U.S. has approved the Netherlands and Denmark to supply F-16's to Ukraine when pilot training is complete. I'd assume in parallel to that would be the training of maintenance and supply crews. Some sources say the shortest basic F-16 pilot training is six months, which includes English language courses. One problem at present is that there's only a handful of existing Ukrainian fighter pilots fluent in English.

 

Six months training might be enough for current combat experienced Ukrainian pilots if they can master English fairly quickly, but much longer training would be needed for a fresh crop of new pilots out of flight school. At least they would have the advantage of being embedded among the combat experienced pilots who would have a mentoring role over the newbies.

 

Ukraine has a sizeable foreign legion made up of many volunteers from western nations fighting in infantry roles. Surely there would be quite a few retired F-16 pilots around the world itching to get back to a bit of action. Russia has been using private contractor fighter pilots (Wagners), so what's wrong with Ukraine hiring a bunch of foreign bored adrenaline junkies who happen to be recently retired, highly experienced F-16 pilots. It would speed things up a bit. I suspect now the F-16 supply announcement has been made, they'll start coming out of the woodwork to put their hand up. A lot of them who don't have wives and kids would probably do it just for the buzz of being back in the saddle and getting the chance at some real combat. Fighter pilots train for war, but most work their entire career in peacetime. Not being able to do what they train for frustrates some of them. Others are probably glad they never had to fly in real combat.

[Jerry_Atrick]

The difference is if Ukriane captures POWs from Russia, they generally treat them OK even if they are mercenaries; if Russia captures foreign nationals fighting for Ukraine, they are deemed foreign mercenaries and under Russian laws are put to death.

Also, the western pilots could gfive Russia more information (under torture) that would be useful than vice versa.

Edited August 20, 2023 by Jerry_Atrick

[willedoo]

I guess the safest role for foreign pilots would be stand-off work with long range missiles.

[willedoo]

Zelensky has said the Netherlands has agreed to supply 42 F-16's.

[Bruce Tuncks]

You cannot speed up language training too much. There was a case in SA where Flinders University demanded a 2 weeks "crash course in english" for chinese students.

I think those students lived together and spoke chinese at home.Anyway, they learned NOTHING in the 2 weeks.

At a minimum, you would have to remove the students right away from their native tongue and take 6 months. Even then they would not be good.

There are some people talented at picking up a new language and some are the opposite. I well knew an opposite guy, he was smart enough in his job but he spoke a broken Polish/English mixture and nobody could understand a word he said.

While I knew him, he went back to poland ( first visit since 1939! ) and nobody could understand him there either.

Here was a non-stupid guy removed from his own language for 50 years!

Edited August 20, 2023 by Bruce Tuncks

[Bruce Tuncks]

I once had a student who was of French extraction but his English sounded good. he was not a student of mine except once i filled in for a sick colleague. I set them an assignment which included the question "write a paragraph on arc welding under each of the following headings...(1)Amperage (2) polarity (3) electrode size.... etc

Well I saw this student trying to  meet me around the place, when he finally did he asked me " why I wanted them to write about  "zee arvesteur".

It took some doing, but i finally discovered that the word "headings" had fooled him. A slang word for a harvester is a header.

I have since wondered how much he was learning in his classes.

[red750]

When you look at Asian drivers and how little they understand the road rules and signs, you have to question why they are issued licences. Just watch an episode of Highway Patrol or Motorcycle Cops.

[willedoo]

In Asia, you might as well stay at home if the car horn doesn't work.

[nomadpete]

Yes, it is a big culture shock for some of our new Australians when they get their car licence.

 

For a start, they have trouble staying on only the left half of the road. Back home it is fair game to drive on any part of the road that isn't already occupied. And I've seen one place where, at night, they only turn headlights on for brief moments. So the darkened street gets a burst of one set of headlights, and it frighteningly silhouetted half a dozen  bikes and cars all going about their business  in darkness. I never got an explanation  from them as to why?

 

And traffic control lights are just pretty decorations.

 

Of course, even when headlights don't work, the horn never stops.

[pmccarthy]

Truck drivers on many country roads in Africa don't use headlights at night. They believe they can see better using natural light and don't want to dazzle others. A big surprise for the visitor.

[spenaroo]

Which is probably why they are able to hit the only tree in the desert

 

[Bruce Tuncks]

Are there any scientific tests done on this?