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Sanctions against Russia


Bruce Tuncks

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The Ukrainian counter offensive has about another month of time left before the battlefield turns to a sea of sticky black mud, followed by the cold weather. Best guess is that a lot of current planning would be focusing on getting set up for next year's fighting season. The challenge will be how to attrit Russian logistics and assets during the quiet season so putler can't use the lull to build to a stronger position next year. Ukraine will need lots of drones, artillery ammunition and long range strike capabilities.

 

There's some talk that the Biden administration is finally considering providing ATACMS. If it happens, it will most likely be several months away. I hope Biden will pull his finger out. If he doesn't learn from his mistakes of last year, another repeat will be a win for putler. I feel sorry for the Ukrainians. They don't have much choice but to take whatever Biden drip feeds them. Biden is probably the lesser of two evils; I'm sure if it was a Republican administration, Russia would have won this war long ago.

Edited by willedoo
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Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg was at the joint meeting of the European Parliament’s Committee on Foreign Affairs and made a good point about so called experts criticising Ukraine for slow progress in the counter offensive. This is a quote from his comments:

'we were told by most experts that Kyiv would fall within days, and Ukraine would fall within weeks.The Ukrainians proved them wrong by pushing back the Russian invaders, liberating the north, around Kyiv, the east around Kharkiv, and then bigger territories in the south and around Kherson. And now they are gaining more ground, liberating more Ukrainian territory. And then the same experts that told us that Ukraine will fall within weeks are complaining about the speed of the defensive.'

 

The full text is not a bad read.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_218172.htm

 

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The Ukrainians have released some information on how they recently destroyed the $1.2 Billion S-400 air defence complex in Crimea. The Ukrainian Security Service first took out the radar stations with drones. Once the eyes were knocked out, the Ukrainian Navy hit the S-400 launchers with Neptune missiles. It just goes to show that for all the capability, complexity and cost of these systems, they are still vulnerable to drones that can fly under the radar. Photo is of S-400 launchers.

 

 

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This is a satellite image of the landing ship Minsk and the Kilo class submarine Rostov-on-Don that were attacked in drydock in Crimea. The sub is on the right and hard to tell the extent of the damage. Even if the hull is not breached, it would have been exposed to a lot of heat from the fire. The ship won't sail for a very long time, if ever. With the pressures a submarine has to handle, you wouldn't think it would be viable to repair after being burnt.

 

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I don't know, the subs are pretty modular today.
they cut shut and weld the subs all the time making them longer or repairing damage when they crash into sea mountains.

or just to refuel the reactor.
 

and if my memory is correct, most of the important stuff on the ship is purposely left off the bridge.

as its the first thing targeted, the controls including steering are deeper into the hull. the bridge is something that can be rebuilt more easily.

Edited by spenaroo
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The British Ministry of Defence has released some higher resolution satellite images of the landing ship and submarine that were struck at Sevastopol. Their assessment is that any attempt to return the submarine to service would take several years. They also said the job of removing both wrecks and fixing the drydocks would put both docks out of action for months.

 

In the second photo, I did a screen grab of Sevastopol Bay in Google Maps. The dry dock where the landing ship and submarine were attacked is at the end of Korabelna Bay (circled in red). I don't know how old the current Google Maps image is, but it shows a large four ship capacity floating dry dock and a smaller floating dry dock in Sevastopol Bay (yellow arrow).

 

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