Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

Here's a close up of the floating dry docks in Sevastopol Bay. I'm no ancient mariner, but I would assume they are more suited to less major work like hull maintenance and repainting. Losing the hard dry docks for a few months will cause a few logistical problems. I'd say given the fact the Ukrainians are starting to knock out the Crimean air defences, the Black Sea Fleet would be getting a bit nervous about their present digs. There might be a few duffel bags getting packed for a move to the harbour at Novorossiysk on the Russian mainland.

 

[willedoo]

The British MoD in their assessment of the shipyard attack also said the Rostov on Don was one of four Black Sea Fleet subs that are cruise missile capable. That's a pretty good effort in one day to get a landing ship and also knock out 25% of their submarine cruise missile launch capability. The other two Black Sea Fleet improved Kilo class subs are out of the Black Sea; one is on deployment in the Mediterranean and the other is at a St.Petersburg shipyard for repairs. The Russians would feel the loss of any landing ship as they will be the main supply method if the Ukrainians cut the rail route.

[Old Koreelah]

Putin and his diminishing circle of “friends” have one thing in common: they despise and fear western influence, because it threatens their unlimited power to control and exploit the poor, ignorant bastards inside their empires. Time for the democratic world to stop drip-feeding support to the front line.

 

As we sit by watching from afar, young people are being maimed in minefields, defending Europe and the rest of us from totalitarian dictators.

[willedoo]

Putin and his cronies seem to be preparing for a long war. The authorities have announced that all the mobilised and contract troops will now have to stay until the war ends. They will get some leave back home every six months, but that's it; they are there for the duration.

[facthunter]

Just a bit longer than 3 days.   Nev

[willedoo]

If Kadyrov kicks the bucket, putler might have Chechen war No.3 on his hands. Press reports say he's been in a coma for a few days and some Russian Telegram channels are making unverified claims that he's died. The last thing putler would like at the moment is a second war to fight.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Of course, social media is full of BS, and I have no idea how authentic or accurate this video is, but it would not surprise me if there was a price on Putin's head by the Wagner group:

 

[willedoo]

I agree with you there Jerry; it certainly wouldn't surprise me if there was some truth in it. You would think as long as Wagners has financing, support and strong leadership that they would remain a threat. It's been said that the number of private military companies putin has authorised numbers in the dozens at federal and local levels. It might turn out to backfire on him.

[facthunter]

THOSE who Live by the Sword will die by the sword. One can hope.  Nev

[Marty_d]

1 hour ago, facthunter said:

THOSE who Live by the Sword will die by the sword. One can hope.  Nev

More likely that those who live by the sword die by those that live by the Glock, but I take your point. 

[onetrack]

What supposedly happened to Kadyrov? Did he get a cupful of polonium tea, because he was starting to look like he might replace Prigozhin? Kadyrov has posted a YooTube video in recent hours, stating he's alive and well and showed him strolling around. Maybe the Ukrainian news about him was a little premature, and the bomb hasn't actually gone off yet? 

[red750]

This news is likely to upset Vladimir Putin. Ukrainian troops are employing a clever tactic to escalate the war costs for Russia.

 

While pro-Russian media report a successful attack on a P-18 radar, the internet is amused. The supposed radar was nothing but a cheap decoy.

 

The company Metinvest is building decoys for the Ukrainian armed forces. Russia was recently lured into a trap by a meticulously faked radar installation. Using expensive ammunition, Russian soldiers destroyed the decoy.

 

The company reported the deception on Facebook.

 

"Metinvest's technical installations are proving successful on the front lines. The aggressor's forces destroyed a model of the Ukrainian P-18 Malachit radar, manufactured in our factories," reads the statement.

 

"The enemy was unable to distinguish the model from a real radar station and expended costly precision ammunition to destroy the plywood and metal replica."

[red750]

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner Group, a private military company, died in a plane crash near Moscow on August 23. While the cause remains uncertain, Russian President Vladimir Putin is suspected of orchestrating the event.

 

According to Yahoo News a meeting at the Kremlin shortly after Prigozhin's failed rebellion against Russian leadership suggests that Putin was waiting for the right moment to take over Wagner, a significant player in Russian foreign policy.

 

Five days after Prigozhin's failed rebellion, Putin convened a meeting with him and his commanders. During the meeting, Putin proposed a new leader for the group, Alexei Troshev.

 

While the commanders agreed, Prigozhin, unaware of their response, declined. This meeting may have sealed Prigozhin's fate.

 

Preparing for Prigozhin's elimination
Matthew Orr, a Eurasia analyst at RANE, stated that the meeting aimed to show the discord between Prigozhin and his commanders, preparing them for his eventual elimination.

 

The lack of notable dissension after Prigozhin's death suggests that the meeting achieved its goals.

With Prigozhin and other key figures gone, it may be easier for Putin to bring Wagner under state control. Moscow is likely to use its security and intelligence services to ensure that Wagner's operations align with Russian state interests.

 

Reports indicate that Russian military officials began assuming control of Wagner's operations even before Prigozhin's death.

[willedoo]

6 hours ago, onetrack said:

What supposedly happened to Kadyrov? Did he get a cupful of polonium tea, because he was starting to look like he might replace Prigozhin? Kadyrov has posted a YooTube video in recent hours, stating he's alive and well and showed him strolling around. Maybe the Ukrainian news about him was a little premature, and the bomb hasn't actually gone off yet? 

Kadyrov has reportedly had health problems for some time now. There's speculation it's what's caused his bloated face of late. A lot of stories and rumours that his kidneys are on the way out. Time will tell, no doubt. The video he released might be current, but also could be an older one he did to dispel rumours of his health. The speculation about his health has been going on for a few months now. But then again, putin has been dying on social media for a couple of years now, and he's still here.

[willedoo]

These are claimed to be photos of the damaged submarine Rostov on Don. I don't think it will buff out.

 

 

[onetrack]

Those photos could be of anything. Why pixellate everything but the sub? Could you imagine anyone besides Russian Naval personnel, getting anywhere near that close to a Russian sub??

[Marty_d]

Looks like a model to me.

[willedoo]

The pixillating is suspect. Also the conning tower looks too short for a Kilo class sub. My first thought was a fake. It will be interesting to see if any non edited photos appear.

[willedoo]

12 hours ago, onetrack said:

Could you imagine anyone besides Russian Naval personnel, getting anywhere near that close to a Russian sub??

Yes, shipyard workers and contractors. A few days ago, close up video footage appeared of the damaged landing ship in the drydock beside the submarine. In the footage you can see people in civilian clothes.

 

https://t.me/krymrealii/25205

 

 

[willedoo]

In the latest round of support for Ukraine, the U.S. has said no to supplying the ATACMS. There was some hope they finally would come to the party this time, but it was not to be. The HIMARS and M270 MLRS launched missile is highly desired because of it's 300 klm range and penetrating high explosive blast fragmentation warhead. The range of the ATACMS would cover all of Crimea from current Ukrainian positions. The British and French supplied Storm Shadow/Scalp-EG cruise missile has a larger 450kg warhead in comparison to the 230kg ATACMS, but is air launched by Ukraine's Su-24 which they only have in small numbers. The ATACMS is less powerful but more flexible with the highly mobile HIMARS ground launchers.

 

The Americans have copped a lot of flak over their refusal to supply the ATACMS, but they probably have good enough reasons. First, they don't have a huge amount of stock themselves, and second, they don't want to supply missiles that could be used to attack Russia. The U.S. has declared Crimea to be a valid target as it's considered sovereign Ukrainian territory, but they don't trust the Ukrainians with the missiles when it comes to strikes on Russian territory. It's one thing to supply Ukraine with weapons to defend their own country, but if the U.S. starts supplying weapons to strike Russia it could lead to some bad outcomes. I think the Americans are hoping Ukraine will get their own missile programmes up and running so they won't need the ATACMS. Ukraine has had a fair bit of success with their domestically produced Neptune missile and it's modifications, but it's still not as mobile and flexible as the ATACMS.

[willedoo]

Just a couple of observations from footage aired on social media.

 

No.1 is helmet cam footage of front line battles. The Ukrainian infantry is using an extraordinary amount of rifle ammunition when clearing Russian positions. That would present the usual logistic challenges. The majority of rifles used are the AK-74 chambered for the 5.45x39 round. Even though it's a light round, carrying half a dozen 30 round magazines on the body is more than 2.5 kilos not counting the magazine weight. It's not so bad when they are fighting from trenches and dug-outs as they have a stockpile of ammo boxes and assistants loading magazines for them. But where they use the most ammunition is when they move forward to clear the Russian positions, and they rely solely on what they are carrying on them.

 

Most of the fighting is in an environment of large, open black soil fields bounded by narrow tree lines. These tree lines are where the Russians are dug in with a combination of trenches, small dug out bunkers and foxholes. This is where the heavy ammunition usage comes in. The undergrowth, foliage, and the ground slope in the tree lines means the Ukrainians advancing through the tree lines can't see the Russians ahead of them. The only way to advance is to lay down a mass of covering fire to keep the Russians pinned down in their holes. They just fire in the general direction where they are hearing the Russian gunfire. If they can keep the Russian's heads down, they can advance close enough to clear the Russian positions with grenades. It's an enormous amount of small arms ammunition used, but there doesn't seem to be any other way. Manufacturing, supply and logistics determines who wins as much as tactics and strategy does, it seems.

 

Observation No.2 is from drone footage of cluster munition hits. After seeing a lot of footage of cluster munition strike patterns, I find it hard to see their value. I suppose they are better than nothing if you are short on standard fragmentation shell supplies, but that's about all I can say for them. They seem to drop the sub munitions in a large, roughly circular pattern which looks ineffective. They might get the odd enemy or two with each shell, but it seems to scare them more than kill them. In my opinion, all they are doing is wearing out howitzer barrels for little gain.

[red750]

Crimea: Severe damage to Russian air base

 

According to an unnamed Ukrainian intelligence source who spoke to Reuters, the SBU security service and the Ukrainian Navy attacked the air base south of Saky in Russian-occupied Crimea last night.

 

According to the source, they caused “considerable damage”. The base is located right next to the village of Novofedorivka. Russian forces, on the other hand, claimed to have destroyed 19 Ukrainian drones over Crimea and the Black Sea, but did not provide details on casualties or damage. Reuters could not independently verify the reports.

 

According to the source, drones were used first, followed by Neptune cruise missiles. At least twelve combat aircraft and man-portable air defense systems were reportedly located at the western base in Crimea, according to the German news platform n-tv.de. The base also functioned as a training camp for drone pilots.

 

This information comes from a party to the conflict and has not yet been independently verified / confirmed. For this reason, the report must be evaluated with reservations. In war, it can be advantageous for parties to make false statements about the course of the conflict in order to strengthen their own position or weaken the position of the opponent.

 

 

[red750]

British Ministry of Defense: Russian troops are exhausted

 

Every day since the escalation of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine in February 2022, the British Ministry of Defense publishes its assessment of the situation in the conflict. On September 21, 2023, the issue is the failure to rotate combat units.

 

According to a British assessment, Russian troops in Ukraine are suffering from inadequate recovery time, as the German news website n-tv.de reports. On the anniversary of Russia’s partial mobilization, the British Ministry of Defense stressed that the lack of rotation of combat units was one of the main reasons for the low morale of Russian soldiers. It also affects the Russian army’s ability to adequately train its troops.

 

It was pointed out in London that the lack of such training most likely contributes to the challenges Russia faces in successfully implementing complex offensive operations. The ministry was referring to remarks made by former General Andrei Kartapolov, chairman of the defense committee in the Russian parliament. Kartapolov had stressed that mobilized soldiers would be required to serve throughout the “special military operation,” as the war against Ukraine is known in Russia. Moreover, he said, it is not possible to rotate personnel out of the combat zone. This, he said, is seen by the British ministry as a reaffirmation of the difficult situation on the front lines.

[red750]

Russia has lost an astonishing amount of equipment in Ukraine

 

Over 12,000 pieces of military equipment have been taken out

 

When Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his invasion he was hoping to take control of the country in just three days. Instead, the Ukrainians put up a fierce defense and Russia has been embroiled in a conflict that's cost the Kremlin tens of thousands of lives and pieces of military equipment. But just how bad have Putin's losses been?

 

View slideshow here for details

[Bruce Tuncks]

I'd like willedoo's reaction to the dog idea. After seeing "Private Benjamin" as a movie, I read that in reality half the US platoons had dogs. The dogs would range ahead and easily sniff out germans among the treelines. Next, those germans would be targeted by artillery or airstrikes. The story said that the platoons with dogs had half the casualties of the rest. ( I dunno if the dog's lives were counted or not)

I have always reckoned that my uncle Jack, who was nearly killed fighting Japanese near Milne Bay in WW2, suffered from a lack of dogs. Imagine the plight of a would be Japanese sniper left in a tree with a bloody dog barking up at him...

 

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