Sanctions against Russia

[Jerry_Atrick]

I know from the discussion the late Yenn and I got into over Israel and Palestine, it is a lot more nuanced than the maps above. I can't remember it all now, and I only went back to 1948, but as I recall, Israel accepted the UN resolution of a two-state solution and declated itself a country (independence) sometime in 1948. The next day, virtually aall of its neighbours attacked it. I can't remember, but I think there was some war or skirmish in the 50s.

 

The problem with wars (especially in those days) is that they often involved taking or losing territory. In the 67 war, Israel took the Sinai, but later handed it back in exchange for the promise of peace. That didn't go too well for them and they were attacked again in the 70s. Since then, when they have gasined territory, they probably have kept itm as it is as much for the security of their citizens than athe spoils of war.

 

They have been continually attacked, and of course, last week is no different. I can't recall it all, but I remember some part of Jerusalem being on higher ground and Hamas or the PLO or something decided they were going to make life difficult for the Israelis.  So, the Israelis took it.

 

I know that in relatively recent times, the settlements on the West Bank have been contraversial and likely illegal. And yes, this is being done (yet again) under harder and harder leaning right wing governments.

 

The Palestinian people seem to be a pawn in this whole sorry episode. As far as I can tell, Hamas does not give a stuff about its people - it is fighting on ideology, and as far as I can tell, Israel's government is lurching further to the right and wanting the whole area to itself.

 

The rhetoric coming from Israel after what in reality was a live declaration of war on it was firghtening; it was going to annihilate the Gaza. Their tone has tempered somewhat to restricting their annihilation to Hamas (and presumably Hezbollah). They have warned ordinary Palestinian folk to leave Gaza.. I think Israel has opened the gate it's side, but progress would be slow as it would check everyone. However, remember, Gaza borders Egypt and strangely, there is a wall and a gate their, too. And Egypt is not opening its door for Palestinian refugees. So, let's be honest, it is not only the Jews that don't want them, it is also their own kind (religiously or ethinically speaking).

 

I am in no way saying Israel is a model international citizen - not by any means. I am saying, however, that the maps don't tell the whole story.. and I don't accept the colonisation or aparthied accusations either. I wil lleave you with this clip I recall, from the son of a Hamas founder.. We never hear this side of the story:

 

UN Watch, by the way, pointed out the lunacy of the UN Human Rights Commission for visiting Australia to investigate oppression of women - the same human rights commission that has Saudi, Yemmen, Qatari and many other human rights abusing countries sitting in it.

 

[Old Koreelah]

All true, Jerry. Thousands of Palestinian families still carry the keys to their ancestral homes, from which they were forced by Israeli terror gangs, generations ago. Many joined resistance movements we regard as terrorists.

How would you or I react to having our country stolen?

 

I find it amazing that Bible Belt Americans give total support to Israel as it gradually squeezes Christian Palestinians from their homes in Biblical places like Bethlehem.

I have no solutions, but we cannot be blind to the brutal realities of this conflict.

[Jerry_Atrick]

As was pointed out to me here, Palestine was not a country. Also pointed out was the Zions purchased most of the land the turned into their country.  Although the amount is disputed, what is not disputed is it was a lot and not done under duress.

 

I haven't done the research, but the history is long and chequered with Jews living in Israel before the Romans turfed them out and renamed it Palestine - or something akin to it. How far back do we go?

 

In terms of the current conflict, it is brutal and I think Israelis reaction was overreaction.., although I understand why. One of the problems they have is that Hamas is a terrorist organisation that embed themselves in civilian infrastructure, Israel does not and Hamas could have limited themselves to military installations.., they chose not to.

 

The sad reality is that the Palestinian people are going to feel the brunt of this. Given Egypt also consider Hamas a terrorist organisation and for a long time have not even offered Palestinians humanitarian aid from their end of the Gaza border, they have nowhere to go.

 

All i am saying is it is more complex than colonialisation and apartheid, both of which actually do not appear to be the case. Israel generally don't attack until they are attacked or the threat is real.

 

West Bank settlement is defo an issue... 

[willedoo]

7 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

I can't recall it all, but I remember some part of Jerusalem being on higher ground and Hamas or the PLO or something decided they were going to make life difficult for the Israelis.  So, the Israelis took it.

Jerry, you're not thinking of the Golan Heights are you?

[spenaroo]

Problem I see is the Palestinian's themselves aren't differentiating themselves from Hamas,

look at the protests in Sydney and the videos of them ripping posters of kidnapped kids down,

 

its one thing to say what about the Palestinians and protection of their children, but you have to denounce the terrorist actions in the same sentence... something they are not doing.

which is why they are unlikely to gain sympathy - the protests aren't seen as respectful

Edited October 13, 2023 by spenaroo

[willedoo]

Regarding the Ukrainian summer counter-offensive, there's a lot of figures given of the amount of area regained, but not much mention of net gain allowing for the Russian gains in territory. According to the Belfer Center at Harvard, Ukraine made a net gain of 8 square miles of territory the month to Oct. 10.. The way that reads, it's a figure for a one month period. It would be interesting to know the net gain figure since the start of the summer campaign.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russian-forces-improving-positions-along-front-line-ukraine-2023-10-15/

 

Meanwhile the Russians are throwing everything but the kitchen sink into their attempt to take Avdiyivka on the outskirts of Donetsk city. There's been reports of big losses of men and equipment by the Russians. A lot of it has been a result of armoured columns bunching up on limited access points and being hit with drone directed artillery. It just goes to show how hard it is for either side to make major advances.

 

At least Ukraine learns from experience. They tried the frontal assault with armoured column tactic at the start of their summer campaign and came to grief, so have abandoned that and are concentrating on the attrition of Russian forces and their logistics. Their only way forward is to weaken the Russians to the point where they can then advance. The Russians on the other hand, haven't learnt, and are still trying major armoured assaults across narrow roads and minefields that are under Ukrainian fire control and drone surveillance. The Russian defeats at Avdiyivka are a rerun of last year's failed assault on Vuhledar. 

 

Battles like what's been happening at Avdiyivka where Russia expends large amounts of life and equipment for little tactical gain surely must be a political decision made in desperation for a victory to announce to the Russian public. Either that, or the generals really are incompetent.

 

I don't know how accurate this chart is, but it compares the daily artillery fire rate of Russia and Ukraine and shows Russia's fire rate dropping below that of Ukraine for the first time since the start of the war. It could mean Russia is low on ammunition and conserving it, or that they are short on replacement barrels for their artillery, or a combination of both.

 

 

 

[willedoo]

[onetrack]

Ukrainian sappers have so far uncovered over 700,000 items of unexploded ordnance and mines in the Ukraine. No doubt, a lot are still just simply marked, and haven't been neutralised yet.

 

Something like 30% of the cropping land in the Ukraine is unusable due to mines and UXO, or is in the possession or reach of Russian troops.

 

https://kyivindependent.com/over-700-000-explosives-discovered-by-ukraines-sappers/

[willedoo]

11 hours ago, onetrack said:

Ukrainian sappers have so far uncovered over 700,000 items of unexploded ordnance and mines in the Ukraine. No doubt, a lot are still just simply marked, and haven't been neutralised yet.

 

Something like 30% of the cropping land in the Ukraine is unusable due to mines and UXO, or is in the possession or reach of Russian troops.

 

https://kyivindependent.com/over-700-000-explosives-discovered-by-ukraines-sappers/

I saw recently where the Ukrainian sappers said they had encountered anti tank mines that the Russians had booby-trapped by placing a grenade underneath. Specifically done to try to kill the sappers when they are de-mining.

[Old Koreelah]

10 hours ago, willedoo said:

I saw recently where the Ukrainian sappers said they had encountered anti tank mines that the Russians had booby-trapped by placing a grenade underneath. Specifically done to try to kill the sappers when they are de-mining.

We’re starting to see more of that evil tactic. Russians lobbing in an extra missile just as rescue workers arrive. Second car bombs being laid, timed to kill first responders. Utterly without humanity.

[willedoo]

I saw a short video clip of a Russian truck convoy that had been hit by HIMARS launched M30A1 rounds. The M30A1 is the one that contains 180,000 BB sized tungsten steel balls, designed to eventually replace the cluster munitions. As an anti-personnel round, it looks to be more effective than the cluster munitions judging by video evidence. The M30A1 blast seems more contiguous and concentrated. All the video I've seen of the cluster munitions hitting Russian troops gives the impression of inefficiency and a sloppy blast pattern. The sub-munitions seem to hit everywhere but where they are required. From the circular blast pattern, it looks like you would need several cluster munition rounds to achieve the effect of one M30A1 for use on personnel.

 

The M30A1 is also very effective on non armoured equipment like the truck convoy as well. It doesn't destroy the vehicles, but the giant shotgun blast effect riddles the vehicles with BB sized holes. The most effect seems to be flattening of tyres and perforation of fuel tanks. It won't totally destroy a column, but will disable it and stop it in it's tracks.

 

On the subject of missiles, the U.S. press reports 20 ATACMS missiles have been sent to Ukraine. At this stage, it looks like they've only received the cluster munition variant M39A1 which carries 300 M74 bomblets. They hit Berdyansk Airport with them on Tuesday night, and while some claims of 9 or ten destroyed helicopters might be true, satellite photos show 6 destroyed. The ATACMS the Ukrainians really want is the M57 which is GPS guided and has a single 500 pound penetrating high explosive blast fragmentation warhead, same as the US Navy's Harpoon anti-ship missile. These would be the bridge and bunker buster missile the Ukrainians need but they will probably never get them.

[willedoo]

Ukraine's first use of the ATACMS has yielded some good results. While the numbers aren't rock solid, sources geoconfirmed with high resolution satellite images put the number of Russian helicopters damaged and destroyed at 21 in the attack on Berdyansk and Luhansk airports. Also destroyed was a radar station and possibly a Pantsir air defence system.

 

An edit to the previous post, the ATACMS variant supplied to Ukraine is the older M39, not the M39A1 as previously stated. The M39 is inertia guided and has a shorter range of 165km compared to the GPS guided M39A1 range of 300klm. On the plus side, with less propellant taking up space, the M39 carries 950 M74 bomblets compared to 300 in the later A1 variant. It makes sense for the U.S. to get rid of their older Block 1 ATACMS that are nearing expiry. The Americans would be more comfortable with the shorter range and the increased payload equates to more effect per missile. The M74 bomblets work as blast and fragmentation, so would be very effective for taking out parked aircraft with 950 per missile.

[willedoo]

The Russian assaults on Avdiivka appear to have slowed down a bit in the last few days. They've lost a crazy amount of men, armour and artillery in their attempts to take the town. In one day they lost over 1,300 men, a record loss in one day since the war began. The rumour mill has it that putler has ordered the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts to be taken by the end of the year. If true, he must be looking for some sort of victory to sell to the people.  

[red750]

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/the-dagger-putin-launches-operation-with-his-unstoppable-wonder-weapon/ar-AA1iGxxQ?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=2b6b6e40776f444cc55f1feb1a47a91e&ei=7

[red750]

Russian oil boss becomes third to die suddenly at company that criticised Putin’s war

 

See details here.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Died of "accute heat failure" and "from his injuries" suggest the accute heart failure may have ben caused by... oh, I dunno... maybe a bullet?

[nomadpete]

7 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Died of "accute heat failure" and "from his injuries" suggest the accute heart failure may have ben caused by... oh, I dunno... maybe a bullet?

Now you are just stirring the propaganda  stew.

 

With the high mortality rate of executives,  it is quite possible this one died from natural causes.

[Bruce Tuncks]

Here's the trouble with autocrats...  they have to murder to get in, then to stay in. So you are ruled by the best murderer around.

But how do they change over?  If this problem can be solved, it might be that autocrats will become more common.

In Nth Korea, I notice that they have dealt with the problem of the old guy dying with pure denial!

[willedoo]

10 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Died of "accute heat failure" and "from his injuries" suggest the accute heart failure may have ben caused by... oh, I dunno... maybe a bullet?

Jerry, two different people, if you reread the article, the third and fourth paragraphs start talking about his predecessor who was the one who died of his injuries (after falling out of a window).

[red750]

Heavy blow: Russia destroys Western ATACMS missiles

 

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/heavy-blow-russia-destroys-western-atacms-missiles/ar-AA1iS6nL?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=9118e3781e7b40309814fe0e8cb77934&ei=9

 

Disaster for Russia: 29 tanks destroyed

 

https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/disaster-for-russia-29-tanks-destroyed/ar-AA1iS8um?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=9118e3781e7b40309814fe0e8cb77934&ei=13

 

 

[red750]

Russians rebel against Putin and form a special battalion

 

Dissatisfaction is growing among Russian citizens against Vladimir Putin, the authoritarian leader in Moscow.

 

However, due to stringent laws that almost entirely prohibit criticism of the regime, few dare to express their discontent openly. Despite this, many Russians are actively engaging in efforts to overthrow Putin, according to Bloomberg reports.

 

Several Russians who oppose Putin's regime have joined the Ukrainian military. A unique battalion has been formed, consisting entirely of Russian citizens who are fed up with Putin's brutal rule.

 

"We must destroy the Kremlin government," says a 29-year-old member of the battalion according to YLE. Another soldier in his 40s adds, "As a Russian, I feel responsible for this."

 

Another member emphasizes that Russia is an "empire that must collapse."

 

The battalion, known as the "Siberia Battalion," is made up of 60 men, all volunteers, and none are recruited from Russian prisoners of war, according to a Ukrainian military official.

 

Security Measures and Future Plans

Ukraine has conducted background checks for nearly a year to ensure that no one is attempting to infiltrate their forces. They are also encouraging more Russians to join their ranks. Unlike other volunteer Russian resistance groups, such as the Freedom of Russia legion, this battalion is part of the regular Ukrainian army.

[willedoo]

 A proportion of that Siberia Battalion are Yakuts and Buryats from eastern Siberia. A lot of the ethnic minorities aren't very happy with the Kremlin. They've been used as cannon fodder and make up a disproportional number of the casualties. When they are killed in action, their family is given firewood or potatoes, while war widows in Moscow are given a Lada. It's no wonder some of them want to fight against the Kremlin.

[willedoo]

putler will be happy, he now has two leaders of EU/NATO countries in his pocket as good allies. The waste of oxygen PM of Hungary, Victor Orban, is a long time Kremlin supporter, and since the recent elections in Slovakia, the pro Kremlin party holds the reins of power. Orban and Slovakian PM Robert Fico have announced in advance they will not be supporting the allocation of a €50bn aid package to Ukraine from the EU fund. The EU budget update requires the support of all 27 EU members.

 

[willedoo]

There's been media headlines and stories about a mob storming a Russian airport looking for Jews arriving on a flight from Israel. It happened in the Muslim majority Republic of Dagestan in Russia, and it turns out it wasn't the flight from Israel. A later flight from Israel was diverted due to security.

 

As usual, social media gets a bit carried away with it all. In some reports, they are using this photo to claim that the mob even searched inside the engine cowlings for Jews hiding. My bet is that the bloke has never been that close to a jet engine before and was just curious to see what it looked like inside.

 

[willedoo]

The rumours of putler dying a few days ago don't seem to be getting much traction. As far as the MSM coverage, I've only seen it referenced on a couple of Indian outlets and Sky. It all started with a claim he had a serious heart attack recently. The claim was made by the same dude that said putler fell down the stairs and crapped his pants a few months back. He's a Russian Telegram blogger and Youtuber who goes by the moniker of General SVR. He claims to have contacts in the Kremlin but none of his claims are ever verified or sourced.

 

Ukrainian journalist Dmitry Gordon has interviewed Russian political scientist and historian Valery Solovei on the subject. Solovei said putler is dead as a door nail and is in cold storage in his home at Valdai. Solovei's story is that putler was getting life prolonging cancer treatment from the Israelis until they stopped it due to putler transferring technology to Iran. Then came the heart attack a week ago culminating in putler croaking it last Thursday. Solovei has a history of spreading putin rumours that don't come true.

 

Here's the Sky article about the claimed heart attack.  Sky quotes a source who claims to have sources. This is what journalism has come to, running news articles based on people making unverified claims on social media. Also another link to a Business Insider article discussing General SVR at the time of the claim of putler crapping his duds. Who knows, General SVR could be an attention and click seeking blogger or could even be the FSB indulging in red herring psyops. Starting rumours of leaders dying or falling ill is supposed to be an old Soviet era KGB trick to identify those loyal or disloyal, and to find any potential coup plotters.

 

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/russian-president-vladimir-putin-suffers-cardiac-arrest-in-presidential-bedroom-an-insider-group-reveals/news-story/c02c8dff64dd79a4c8e53bec6ae8f3d8

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/who-is-general-svr-telegram-account-seeding-wild-putin-stories-2022-12