Sanctions against Russia

[Litespeed]

As they should be.

 

Trump is Putanas arse licker. He congratulated Putin for getting a great deal on the prisoner swap. 

 

Treasonous does not seem sufficient.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Looks like Ukraine has pushed through the Russa8n border: https://youtu.be/QFv_6t8tLOI?si=jwcUaU7XOhuprrj_

 

[nomadpete]

1 hour ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

Looks like Ukraine has pushed through the Russa8n border: https://youtu.be/QFv_6t8tLOI?si=jwcUaU7XOhuprrj_

 

He does sound a bit biased. My takeaway, is that unless that little incursion turns into a new front (the land is held), it amounts to very little in the big picture.

[willedoo]

Some commentators are describing it as a dumb action that makes no strategic sense. The Ukrainian line on the Ukraine side of the border in that area is thin due to lack of troops and someone has sent two brigades to run around over the border for no strategic gain.

[onetrack]

You'd only do that to outflank the enemy, and then come in sideways behind them in a pincer movement. It can be an extremely successful move.

Most senior military officers are very aware of outflanking manouevres, and crap themselves when they see it happening. 

[onetrack]

Poo-tin has announced that the Ukrainian incursion onto Russian soil is a "major provocation" and accuses Ukraine of indiscriminately killing Russian civilians.

This is pretty rich, coming from the scumbag who has already killed hundreds, if not thousands of Ukrainian civilians with his indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian villages and cities.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-08/putin-accuses-ukraine-of-a-large-scale-provocation/104197958

[pmccarthy]

It is a brilliant move! Draws off Orcs from elsewhere, makes the citizens in Moscow realise that this is all for real, boosts Ukrainian morale, gives territory for trade-off in negotiations, and may be the beginning of a much larger strategic move.

[willedoo]

It might turn into a modern day Kursk Bulge.

[willedoo]

7 hours ago, pmccarthy said:

It is a brilliant move!

That will depend on whether it works or not. It's a fine line. The exact same action can be called a brilliant masterstroke if it's successful or a strategic blunder if it fails.

[facthunter]

It lets ordinary Russians KNOW there IS a WAR going on and it can come to THEM.  Nev

[willedoo]

It might generate some interest in the cities but most wouldn't care less unless it was happening to them. The average Moscow resident's interest in Sudzha would be along similar lines to a Sydney dweller's interest in what goes on in Fitzroy Crossing. It would bug Putler and his cronies a lot more than the general public in the big cities. Putler would see it as a humiliation. Having to bomb their own towns is not a good look.

 

No word has been released as yet on the reasoning behind the incursion. It could be for different reasons or a combination. Some of the possibles are a morale boosting exercise for the government, a diversion for another push about to happen somewhere else and/or to draw Russian troops away from another area, or the hope of keeping some occupied territory as a bargaining chip. Another possible is strategic - to take the high ground and have fire control over the Russian northern group's GLOC. Either way, it's a very ambitious move and the most ground the Ukrainians have gained for quite a while.

[onetrack]

Quote

the hope of keeping some occupied territory as a bargaining chip

This would have to be the main aim of the Ukrainians, in their push into Russian territory, IMO.

[willedoo]

6 minutes ago, onetrack said:

This would have to be the main aim of the Ukrainians, in their push into Russian territory, IMO.

You could sum it up in one word - Trump. The Ukrainians don't have much time left if he wins in November.

[willedoo]

In reference to the above post, I mean time left to gain bargaining chips in the event Trump pulls the plug and forces them to the negotiating table with Putler. The negotiating would be how much of Ukraine does Putler get to keep.

[Jerry_Atrick]

An interesting video on some of the domestic Russian propaganda 

 

[willedoo]

It's all still happening in the Kursk region. The Ukrainians have now advanced into around 500 sq.klm. of Russian territory. The Russians are bringing in reinforcements, meanwhile at the same time, idiot Russian TV reporters with camera crews are filming and broadcasting live the movements of Russian columns. It saves the Ukrainians having to wait for satellite information; all they have to do is turn the TV on to find the Orc convoys. A Russian convoy of reinforcements traveling through Rylsk was wiped out by a HIMARS barrage, with about 100 killed and a dozen trucks destroyed.

[willedoo]

Other reports are saying that Ukrainian intelligence hacked the roadside security cameras and have been using them to monitor Russian troop movements.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Interesting.. I could be a conspiracist and say that Putin wouldn't mind sacrificing a few thousand troops to even further whip up anti-Ukraine sentiment and justify his war. 

 

He makes socio- and psychopaths seem caring and sharing. 

[willedoo]

There's still a bit of guesswork with what's going on in the Kursk region. The Ukrainian authorities have an opsec ban on any publication of troop movements, so the only available information is coming from Russian Telegram channels, and what they are reporting doesn't sound good for the Russians. Any MSM news is a couple of days behind. They've certainly stirred the Russians up, with about 78,000 people claimed to be evacuated in the district. It could turn into something big if the Ukrainians had enough forces. It would be very difficult to take the two large cities of Kursk and Belgorod, but cutting them off would be a huge problem for the Russians as they are both the major logistic hubs for Russia's northern group.

 

It could play out in a lot of ways. Ideally, Ukraine could take enough land to have a sizeable bargaining chip. As a result, Putin loses his grip on power and falls in a coup. Then Ukraine negotiates with his successors to exchange the Kursk and Belgorod region territory for the Russians retreating back to the 1991 boundaries. Great theory, but it would take a sizeable Ukrainian force to do it.

[onetrack]

The push is designed to make Putin look incompetent and have his supporters lose confidence in him - and hopefully, it will work.

[facthunter]

The more info the average Russian gets the worse it is for Poutain. Nev

[willedoo]

Getting that info to the public is the tricky part. Since the war started the government has tightened it's grip on the press to the point where there's really no independent press left that's worth noting. Virtually all of it is compromised by the government and their propaganda. In the Kursk region, local media has interviewed people saying that Polish speaking Nazis are firing on civilians. Obviously paid stooges for the news crew. The sad part is that a lot of people believe it.

 

On the up side, locals in the region know they have been largely abandoned to their own devices. They know if the Russian military can't put down the incursion straight away, then something is wrong at the top. Anything that makes putler look weak has to be a plus.

 

There's also been a lot of bad blood and infighting in the Kremlin and they are not one big happy family these days. putin knows he's dead if he can't hold his grip on power. The power struggle between him and Shoigu might come to a head soon and if this operation continues to advance and take Russian territory, it could accelerate events in Moscow. I think putler would be starting to feel like a scared rat. He might be a trapped rat soon.

[willedoo]

33 minutes ago, facthunter said:

The more info the average Russian gets the worse it is for Poutain. Nev

I doubt there will ever be any big public uprising against the government, but the more unpopular he gets and the more blame that is directed at him increases the chance of a Kremlin coup to get rid of him. It's hard to see any successor wanting to continue the madness in Ukraine; at least not at the all or nothing, go for broke method of putin. If the war went his way they'd stick with him. If it goes bad for Russia, eventually the blame will fall on putin after he tries blaming everyone else. If that happens, he's stuffed.

[facthunter]

You're not allowed to call it a WAR. Nev

[Marty_d]

3 hours ago, willedoo said:

He might be a trapped rat soon.

Trapped rats can lash out.