Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

[old man emu]

5 hours ago, Old Koreelah said:

And another thing: why is it that that Russia, which has far more territory than any nation, wants more?

Because it's there.

[Old Koreelah]

Singapore seems to do quite nicely with it’s tiny little landmass; Russia is overdue for a major mindset change.

[onetrack]

The simple answer to your question is that Russia wants the Ukraine for its very large area of incredibly rich soils and its ability to be the food bowl of Europe.

I suspect Putin also just wants to enslave all the Ukrainians under his dictatorial and all-encompassing powers. He truly is a power-tripper.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Yes - Russia already has Europe over a barrel (pin not intended but works( with gas and oil- food would seal the deal

[willedoo]

Putin's doomsday plane has been seen flying over Moscow.

 

[willedoo]

The fires and explosions at factories and strategic sites in Russia is becoming an almost daily occurrence. A huge paper and cardboard factory north east of Moscow has gone up in flames, also the Perm powder works has gone up with a bang. It manufactures powder for multiple launch rocket  and air defence systems.

[willedoo]

Sounds like these drone operators enjoy their job.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1521631421412036608

 

Edited May 4, 2022 by willedoo

[onetrack]

It's quite possible the fires are a result of computer viruses sent by hackers, melting hard drives in computers. Even a voltage surge can set fire to small electrical items.

 

I lost my house in a country town due to a voltage surge, the 3 phase wires along the road to the house got slack, then got crossed up in a violently gusty, windy day. 

This crossing up of the phase wires and neutral wire leaked 90V into the neutral wire - which normally carries no current to the premises. The 90V in the neutral wire combined with the 240V in the active wire, melted the little clock radio alongside my bed, which set fire to the curtains - then it was "curtains" for the house, as no-one was home when it happened.

 

You can also simply have a power surge where the (active wire) line voltage exceeds the standard Australian AC voltage threshold of 253V. There can be any one of a dozen reasons for an AC power surge.

 

It's most unfortunate that Mr Putin's country is having all these mysterious fires - he must have the same cheap and nasty equipment as the Iranian nuke mob - they seem to have an awful lot of mysterious fires, too!

[willedoo]

This misadventure of Putin's will be remembered in history as one of the dumbest military campaigns since Napoleon and Hitler's attempts at taking Russia. It will feature in military textbooks as a prime example of how not to wage war. What a half-baked, stupid plan. He made far better use of his military previous to February 24th.. ie: creating a bluff to the world of the second most powerful army. After six weeks of war, the world knows it's the second best army in Ukraine. What's the saying? - all tip and no iceberg.

 

First he starts out with run down, poorly maintained gear, poorly trained troops lacking any norm of military discipline, and all overseen by third world standard leadership and command. The command structure at best, could be described as pathetic. Hoping for a Hitler like blitzkrieg to cut off the head, he splits his forces in the mud season with poor logistic planning and support.

 

The comedy of errors just snowballed from there. At every turn, the Russians ran into strife. Even their secure encrypted communications systems failed. They had to resort to using their mobile phones on Ukrainian networks. This not only gave away their communications, but also enabled geo location of their units to be hit by artillery and drone strikes. Putin's failing was overestimating his military's ability, and underestimating Ukrainian will to fight (and fight smart) and Western nations will to pull together to provide support.

 

Putin is now at a dead end and there's no easy way out for him. An estimated 65% of his fighting forces are in Ukraine and a lot of them will have to be brought back to Russia eventually. If he declares a victory and tries to hold on to what he's got, he won't be able to sustainably hold on to it. Especially not now that Ukraine and the West can smell blood and are prepared to wear him down in a war of attrition.

 

If he abandons his 'special operation' and declares war on Ukraine, he can mobilise the population through conscription. The problem is, that will be as handy as a hip pocket in a singlet. He doesn't have the skeleton training regiments with skilled NCO's and Officers to train them. Most of the skilled NCO's are in Ukraine fighting. If he sends heaps of raw recruits into Ukraine, it will be a turkey shoot for the Ukrainians. If that happens, and the war drags on, eventually the public in Russia will learn some of the truth about what's been going on. Which ever scenario you look at, Putin is extremely vulnerable. His only real power is nukes, the elephant in the room. That's the scary bit, especially now that Putin is showing all the signs of having become mentally unhinged.

[willedoo]

I was reading an article about the Russian Navy's vulnerability in the Ukraine war. They only have a certain number of surface combat ships available, plus some submarines. The rest of the Black Sea Fleet consists of lower threat vessels like patrol boats etc.. Some estimates say Putin has expended at least half of his missile stock, so if true, the long range missile strikes might slow down soon. He also can't bring in more naval ships via the Bosphoros Straight as Turkey has closed it to warships as per international treaty for the duration of the conflict.

 

The only way Russia can reinforce the Black Sea Fleet is to bring ships from the Caspian Sea Fleet via the Volga/Don canal. It consists of a lot of narrow locks starting at the higher elevation Don River, and ending at the Volga at Volgograd (Stalingrad). A bit of lock blowing up by saboteurs would slow down that option of naval reinforcement.

[rgmwa]

If he declares war on Ukraine and starts conscription, the Russian population won't be happy. They may soon begin to question whether this `special operation' is going as well as they've been told, and that maybe the fringe protesters are on to something after all. I can't see that conscription and war is going to enhance Putin's popularity in Russia. It would be a risky step for him to take politically.

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by rgmwa

[Old Koreelah]

1 hour ago, willedoo said:

The only way Russia can reinforce the Black Sea Fleet is to bring ships from the Caspian Sea Fleet via the Volga/Don canal. It consists of a lot of narrow locks starting at the higher elevation Don River, and ending at the Volga at Volgograd (Stalingrad). A bit of lock blowing up by saboteurs would slow down that option of naval reinforcement.

Just traced that long and tortuous route on Google Earth. Looks like it would take weeks. 
 

The size of those big rivers is impressive compared to our tiny streams. There are quite a few large cargo ships if you zoom in.
 

During WWII the forerunner of Mossad planned to sink a large barge, blocking the Danube to Hitler’s oil imports. It might have shortened the war.

[Jerry_Atrick]

This is the only article I can easily find on the possibility the Russian military/KGB/FSB are getting tetchy and Putin could be at risk:

 

Vladimir Putin facing possible coup as senior generals 'look to push out Kremlin boss' (msn.com)

 

 

[kgwilson]

If the reports of him going to hospital for cancer treatment are true they have a great opportunity to end it then and save face for Russia by then appointing someone who will negotiate first a cease fire & then a withdrawal of Russian troops. In the long run though I can see Ukraine becoming ever more bold and demanding a full return of the Donbas and Crimea and their eventual admission to NATO which by then will include Sweden & Finland. As has been said the elephant in the room is the 4000+ nuclear weapons.

 

If there can be a negotiation to remove the nuclear threat in return for economic aid and a boost to Russias economy coupled with freedom of the press and expression then we'd have a very secure Europe. Maybe that will be when pigs fly and just as we destroy the planet with our failure to keep the rising temperature down below 2% anyway.

 

The squeeze is continuing with Europe now beginning to stop imports of Russian oil as they secure new supply from other markets. The news for Putin is all bad.

Edited May 5, 2022 by kgwilson

[Jerry_Atrick]

Do you think any of their nuclear arsenal actually work? They are quite old (or what I read they were). Why would that military program not suffer the same issues as all their others with respect to corruption, siphoning off funds, etc.?

 

Of course one doesn't need all of their arsenal serviceable - just some would do, I guess.

 

The problem I have with Russia, is that we can swap nuclear disarmament for economic aid, but once they are back to an even keel, what would stop them re-arming? Sadly, Russian history, especially of late is not one the exemplifies being terribly trustworthy... I would like to add that they implement a strong and enforced constitution, where the military are incentivised to enforce it, and they implement true democracy... And, ttbh, that the economic aid would be such that if Russia reneged in the future, sanctions would be swift and bite hard.

 

 

 

[rgmwa]

4 hours ago, kgwilson said:

If the reports of him going to hospital for cancer treatment are true...

Wonder if he'd risk an anaesthetic or try to live up to his macho image and stay awake. I'm sure he'd be worried that once he was under everyone might pack up and go home.

Edited May 5, 2022 by rgmwa

[willedoo]

I wonder how the orcs are going trying to start all those John Deere tractors and harvesters they stole from the dealership in Melitopol. They cleaned out the place; estimates varied between 5 and 7 million USD of yellow and green machines stolen. Of course, they're all computer and GPS controlled, so the Ukrainians have reportedly disabled them all remotely. One report said a few of them made it as far as Chechnya, and now they're trying to find Russian tech people who can override the electronics and get them working again.

 

It's proof that the theft from Ukraine has reached an organised level. Here's a couple of screen grabs from a video the Russians posted online where part of the convoy is pulled over. It was properly organised with a convoy of low loaders and escorts. There is always spoils of war, but it's a big difference between captured enemy military equipment and stealing from civilians.

 

[willedoo]

The Russians have captured a former high ranking foreign officer trying to escape from the bunkers at the Azovstal steelworks. Lt.General (retired) Trevor Cadieu was seven months ago appointed as the Canadian Army commander. He retired due to harassment accusations in April and went to Ukraine to fight.

[onetrack]

The bloke running the site below, seems to think the Russians are BS-ing about capturing Cadieu. He makes a lot of sense with his arguments that there's no proof Cadieu has been captured, and it's extremely unlikely he got into Mariupol earlier, because the city has been under siege since 17th March, and Cadieu did not retire until April 5th.

 

https://www.techarp.com/internet/russia-general-cadieu-azovstal/

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by onetrack

[kgwilson]

I wouldn't want to test the Russians ability to use their nukes old or not. They are not likely to have left them unattended or unmaintained. The US still has plenty of minuteman nuclear ICBMs from the 70s scattered all over the mid west in underground bunkers of farmers land. All are ready to go when the button is pushed.

[onetrack]

Drunkenness is the main Russian problem, as regards their effectiveness at fighting a war. Add in low morale of the Russian troops in the Ukraine, who have no clearly-explained reasoning, or any real idea of what they're fighting for, and drunkenness will once again become a predominant problem in Russia's fighting ability.

 

Drunkenness led to the greatest nuclear disaster the world has ever seen, it will likely be a key component of the defeat of Russia's troops by the Ukrainians.

 

As has been pointed out, the Russians are being conned into fighting for a dubious conquest - but the Ukrainians are fighting for their country and their lives with an energetic passion - plus help from many other countries. The only thing the Russians have, is superiority in numbers, but that has never guaranteed success in battles.

 

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/09/how-alcohol-conquered-russia/279965/

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by onetrack

[willedoo]

13 hours ago, onetrack said:

The bloke running the site below, seems to think the Russians are BS-ing about capturing Cadieu. He makes a lot of sense with his arguments that there's no proof Cadieu has been captured, and it's extremely unlikely he got into Mariupol earlier, because the city has been under siege since 17th March, and Cadieu did not retire until April 5th.

 

https://www.techarp.com/internet/russia-general-cadieu-azovstal/

 

It wouldn't surprise me if he's right. The photo I saw that was allegedly Cadieu as a prisoner was so indistinct, it could have been anybody.

[willedoo]

It will be interesting to see if there's truth in some Ukrainian claims that the Russian Guided Missile Frigate 'Admiral Makarov' has been hit by Neptune missiles and is on fire. If true, it would be another big blow for the Russian Navy. The Admiral Makarov is not very old, only commissioned a bit over four years ago.

[willedoo]

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov is a bit of a character.