Sanctions against Russia

[old man emu]

We are concentrating on the military, but the big World problem is that the Ukraine is Europe's grain bowl. Putin has blocked sea transport of grain from Ukrainian ports. That means Europe, the Middle East and parts of Africa will face famine. Last year's harvest is sitting in silos. Who knows how much area the Ukrainians can plant this year, and if they do, where will they store that harvest. I heard an expert speaking on Radio National today saying that our grain reserves can only sustain us for about 3 - 4 months before flour gets scarce and expensive. I'll give the bog rolls a miss and spend up on bags of flour.

 

If the Ukrainian grain doesn't get moved to the rest of the world, you can expect famine. And famine causes revolution - French Revolution, Russian Revolution, The Arab Spring, and who knows how many in the past in Asia. I was talking to a local farmer today who told me that the ground is still too wet to get the ploughing done. That will delay this year's winter cereal crop. And more rain is expected later this week across the wheat belt. 

[onetrack]

The grain "expert" is simply wrong. We have grain silos overflowing here in the West, after a record harvest, bigger than anything W.A. has ever recorded.

Overall, Australia's grain harvest is the same story, with record grain crops in the Eastern States.

Australia has had two consecutive years of bumper grain harvests, and we're exporting grain at a record rate - the estimate is we will export 27.5M tonnes of the 36M tonnes of wheat we produced this harvest just gone (2021-2022).

Australias domestic consumption of wheat is around 5M tonnes. W.A. produced over 22M tonnes this harvest just gone. We are struggling to ship it, thanks to shipping bottlenecks and our country grain silos are still overflowing. We could stop exporting wheat tomorrow, and the grain held just in W.A. silos could keep the country going for at least 3 years.

 

Grain production is estimated to ease over the next couple of years, simply because it's historically nigh-on impossible to have 4 bumper crop years in a row. The cost of fertiliser and fuel is uppermost in most farmers minds - but the simple fact is grain prices are at record highs.

Canola has hit over $1000 tonne, up from $400 a tonne a couple of years ago, and wheat is around $450 a tonne, around $120 a tonne more than it was 18 mths ago. The only problem we face is that our bread, pastry and pasta products are only going to get dearer - not in short supply.

 

The Ukrainian situation is indeed grim, with the amount of Ukrainian grain being able to be harvested possibly down by 30% or 40%, thanks to war disruption. If the war continues and Ukrainian farmers are struggling to plant a normal size crop, then a lot of Europe and Africa will certainly go a bit hungry. But the world grain production levels have a habit of sorting themselves out. One bumper year in America, and the world is flooded with grain.

The problem then is that much of the American wheat crop is soft red wheat, and is not in demand like Australian hard white wheat - which makes the best breads and pastas.

 

This is the site for grain production records and forward estimates - the PDF report at the bottom is worth a read, too. This report was written prior to the Russian invasion.

 

https://www.awe.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-outlook/wheat#opportunities-and-challenges

 

https://www.world-grain.com/articles/16827-australia-anticipates-large-2022-23-grain-crop#:~:text=Wheat production is expected to,some supply challenges%2C FAS said.

 

 

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by onetrack

[onetrack]

Here's an excellent video of the 128th Ukrainian Brigade taking out another Russian tank, which is hiding in trees next to a house.

 

The Ukrainians are claiming this hit was from one of the recent Western-supplied 155mm howitzers, and they're wrapped in the howitzers ability to take out a Russian tank so precisely, at a range of 20 kms!.

 

At 15-16 secs in the video, you can actually spot the flash of the round dropping above the telephone/power pole to the left of the house, and another flash of the round dropping between the pole and the tank, right before the tank explodes. Expand the video to full-screen size, to get a better view.

 

https://www.facebook.com/128brigade/videos/3190404381279957

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by onetrack

[old man emu]

9 hours ago, onetrack said:

We are struggling to ship it,

That could be where the problem for Europe lies. Russia has blocked water transport, and road/rail can't make up the shortfall. We can't get the ships to move our supplies. That's going to cause problems next harvest, especially if last Summer's rain has ensured no water stress for this Winter's crop, and we get a super-bumper crop. Luckily, we seem to have solved the problem of silo-less storage. But, if there is a bumper crop, the mice will breed up ...

 

"We'll all be rooned," said Hanrahan, In accents most forlorn,"

[willedoo]

Scrap metal businesses in Ukraine will have plenty of supply thanks to Russia. Most of the heavy tanks and armoured vehicles are burnt, so it's hard to see much of it being salvageable for parts. The videos of artillery strikes show intense heat in the explosions and resulting fires. I would think that would make a lot of structural parts and hatch covers etc. brittle from the heat.

 

[Bruce Tuncks]

I don't understand why the Russian soldiers are not being told they are trespassers and murderers.

Many of them would have no idea that this is what they are actually doing.

The only reason I can think of is that our pollies don't want to give our own troops ideas, just in case they want our troops to do something similar.

And, I would treat Russian prisoners to the confiscated oligarch's mansions and chefs. And I would get at least one granny to challenge Putin to a duel in a Ukranian paddock, both armed with AK 47's.

I would not even bother to get Putin involved, just his soldiers.

 

 

Edited May 25, 2022 by Bruce Tuncks

[willedoo]

3 hours ago, Bruce Tuncks said:

And I would get at least one granny to challenge Putin to a duel in a Ukrainian paddock, both armed with AK 47's.

My money is on the grannies.

 

[Yenn]

Putin is not really aiming to win this war, what he is trying to achieve is the destruction of Ukraine as a state, so that he can take it over into Russia again.

He doesn't have to consider the troop losses as serious, at least if past Russian history is anything to go on.

The troops are just cannon fodder and probably poorly educates as well as brain washed.

The material losses may just be enough to slow him down and Ukraine having a surfeit of scrap steel may be of little use if Putin succeeds in destroying Ukraine's steel industry.

[willedoo]

A 63 year old Russian retired Air Force Major General has been killed in Ukraine. He'd come out of retirement and was flying a Su-25 for PMC Wagner Group (Russian contractor/mercenaries). He was pulling out of a bombing run in Luhansk province and copped a Stinger up the rear end. As the old bloke in Dad's Army used to say, they don't like it up them. It's one way to end your retirement; he should have stuck to golf.

[willedoo]

This is a photo of the retired Major General referred to in the previous post. Some smart alec on Twitter said it was probably a hat seeking missile that got him.

 

[Marty_d]

Pardon the pun, but the Russians (and North Koreans, come to think of it) really go over the top when it comes to officer headwear.

Can't remember the quote but someone made one about the loser of any war being the one with the silliest uniforms.

[willedoo]

5 minutes ago, Marty_d said:

Pardon the pun, but the Russians (and North Koreans, come to think of it) really go over the top when it comes to officer headwear.

Can't remember the quote but someone made one about the loser of any war being the one with the silliest uniforms.

Like the old saying about the cockies - the bigger the hat, the bigger the overdraft. I seem to remember hearing that one from a shearer.

[onetrack]

Or .. "big hat, and no cattle!"

[nomadpete]

Sounds like a critiqe of Banarnaby Joys or the Mad Hatter.... Err, Mr Katter

[kgwilson]

The North Koreans win hands down on the medals front. They often have so many they have run out of space to pin them on their tunic so continue them down their trouser legs.

 

[Bruce Tuncks]

It was interesting how Velinski promised that Ukraine would cure its corruption as soon as the Russians were finished.

I reckon this conflict has proven how much corruption hurts a country.  The story about how the destruction of oil depots inside  Russia may have been done by the generals ( but blamed on outsiders of course ) to cover up theft was compelling.

What has happened to the Ukrainian oligarchs? Not hurt, but disposessed I hope. Remember that Ukraine was a seriously corrupt country before the war. They don't need to wait to start fixing things I reckon.

I am reminded of how WW2 changed England, and how the troops didn't want to go back to being serfs  afterwards. So they voted against Churchill. who didn't understand this and lost in a landslide.

[old man emu]

52 minutes ago, Bruce Tuncks said:

So they voted against Churchill. who didn't understand this and lost in a landslide.

It's interesting that although the surviving young just after WWII didn't like Churchill's pre-war society, they still were able to love and respect him, despite his faults and bad calls in two wars. That's the mark of a great leader. 

[willedoo]

3 hours ago, kgwilson said:

The North Koreans win hands down on the medals front. They often have so many they have run out of space to pin them on their tunic so continue them down their trouser legs.

 

Personal ERA (explosive reactive armour).

[facthunter]

Goofball gong lovers. Look $!&** ridiculous.  Nev

[kgwilson]

They probably award the medals to themselves. Maybe 1 for every month they survive under Kim Jong-un

[willedoo]

The Russians are bringing old T-62 tanks out of storage. The T-62 was produced from 1961 to 1975. One big issue with them is that they need a four man crew due to a lack of an auto load system. They'll need to train crew members to perform that role.

 

 

[willedoo]

6 minutes ago, kgwilson said:

They probably award the medals to themselves. Maybe 1 for every month they survive under Kim Jong-un

It might be like Russia where a lot of medals are commemorative or proficiency medals. It's almost like they get a medal just for showing up. The bulk of them would be what we call tinnies.

[old man emu]

They probably got the idea from the Yanks,

 

 

[willedoo]

Putin's so called reasoning for this war was that he wanted to:

1. de-Nazify and de-militarise Ukraine.

2. ensure he didn't get any more NATO countries on his border.

 

As far as the Nazis go, he's still tilting at windmills three months later. On the subject of de-militarisation, Ukraine is now much more heavily armed than at the start of the conflict. Due to Russia's huge losses, Russia is now considerably less armed than three months ago. He's achieving de-militarisation alright; the only problem is he's doing it to his own country.

 

He also is facing the possibility of starting the war with four NATO neighbours, and ending up with six if Finland and Sweden join. Brilliant plan, Vladimir.

[nomadpete]

Nazis are Putin's equivalent to USA's WMD that were excuse enough for them to invade a foreign country. And like the mythical WMD's, the nazis don't have to particularly exist, so long as the plebs believe the propaganda long enough for the top players to get away with murder.

Edited May 26, 2022 by nomadpete