Sanctions against Russia

[facthunter]

If you're wise, you only chase what wants to be caught.  Nev

[Marty_d]

1 hour ago, facthunter said:

If you're wise, you only chase what wants to be caught.  Nev

Unfortunately, wisdom in young men is also rare.

[facthunter]

They would be the ones the tigers got in the forest in the cave days.. Nev

[Jerry_Atrick]

If this article is true, it shows how little the human race learns from its own history...

https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/polish-president-says-calls-with-putin-like-speaking-to-hitler-20220609-p5asoa.html

 

(As usual, open in private mode to beat the paywall).

 

[onetrack]

It's good to see the Polish President taking the hard line. The European countries taking the soft line with Russia are terrified of what will happen to their energy supplies and economies if Russia turns on them. I must say I'm really surprised at Macrons soft line on Russia, what is he? - some kind of Russian sleeper?

Putin and Russia need to be humiliated, big time, for their ruthless, murderous, destructive actions, that have not garnered them a single friend on the whole planet.

I'd love to see Putin end up in a war crimes court, but it will never happen, he will die first. 

[facthunter]

Those who live by the sword should die by the sword. Putin's a thug and a bully and tells the  odd porky. Just WHO could trust him?  Nev

[old man emu]

I can't help but have a feeling of dejavu. Wasn't the lead up to WWII Russia and Germany facing off in the Spanish Civil War and using it to battle-test their military equipment? And while that was going on, wasn't Japan invading Manchuria and China and testing its military equipment? And at the same time Britain, France and the USA were busily recording their observations of the results in order to get direction on the development of their military equipment.

Meanwhile, Australia happily exported raw materials to potential enemies.

[facthunter]

R G Menzies was known as "Pig Iron Bob" for exporting it to Japan just before the war started. Japan was already at war with China and Korea.  US had cut off it's rubber and oil supplies.. Nothing is as simple as it seems. Nev

[willedoo]

35 minutes ago, old man emu said:

I can't help but have a feeling of dejavu. Wasn't the lead up to WWII Russia and Germany facing off in the Spanish Civil War and using it to battle-test their military equipment? And while that was going on, wasn't Japan invading Manchuria and China and testing its military equipment? And at the same time Britain, France and the USA were busily recording their observations of the results in order to get direction on the development of their military equipment.

Meanwhile, Australia happily exported raw materials to potential enemies.

The big difference is that Putin is not battle testing his equipment in the lead up to a future larger war. He's squandering his equipment, with the result that he will have no practical ability to launch anything bigger than what he's doing now. At least not for a lot of years to come.

 

In the previous cases, Germany and Japan were on the rise. The way I see it, Russia as a conventional power is now waning in a big way. The worry is, he's still got those nukes.

[facthunter]

And he is criminally insane. A desperate, cornered, rabid animal  with illusions of grandeur who is capable literally of doing anything. Nev

[willedoo]

The war has settled in to a long grind of attrition, with both sides taking big losses for not much change in the lines. In my opinion, the only way forward is to keep arming Ukraine and keep fighting. That will depend solely on the West not blinking. I wish I felt more confident that they won't. Putin's strategy now is holding on long enough until the West does blink. He's trying to stare us down, and if he succeeds in that, he wins. The biggest problem with the Western alliance is the western European countries. It's like herding cats, and very nervous ones at that.

 

In any negotiated cease fire or peace deal, Putin has everything to win, and Ukraine can only lose. A peace deal or cease fire soon will enable Putin to hold what he's taken, and put a stop to the depletion of his forces. That's what he's currently doing - trying desperately to get the last remaining land grab in before his ability to do it diminishes beyond the point of no return.

 

On the other hand, continuing the fight continues the depletion of Putin's forces, which has a negative impact on his future ability to hold and defend. With a cease fire or peace deal, he can use minimal forces to defend, giving him breathing space to regroup, rebuild and rearm. People like Macron must be dreaming if they think Putin will give anything back in a deal, or Ukraine happily agree to giving away a big slab of their most productive and strategic land to a blatant aggressor.

 

Again, it comes back to the West's resolve to stand up to Putin and support Ukraine. One big problem there is that France and Germany are weak and self interested. Putin knows that well and plays on it. He sees it as a card up his sleeve and where the first cracks will appear in the Western alliance.

[willedoo]

Summarising the above, Macron and Co. want to put a bandaid on a boil. The boil will always be there unless they get rid of it, and they won't get any better opportunity than right now. Putin is not in good health and has just made the biggest strategic mistake of his life, so it's the time.

[facthunter]

 Russia has long borders with many Countries who now trust it LESS (if at all) with Putin driving. The truth of the WAR will become more evident also. You can't HIDE what has happened for ever. The WORLD also Knows how WEAK Russia is militarily.. Usually you leave people a face saving way out. I doubt that's possible but you can't blame Macron for trying. ALL wars must come to an end some way.  The 1st World war was only an armistice. It never really ended. Nev

[willedoo]

The problem for Ukraine is that any amount of face saving for Putin involves losing a lot more land that that lost pre February 24th.. For Putin to agree to withdraw to those starting boundaries is a humiliation and total defeat for him. For Ukraine to give him what he currently occupies is a win for Putin and a significant loss for Ukraine. Ukraine can't get any sort of acceptable deal unless Putin is almost defeated and is desperate for a way out.

 

I guess the nature of war is based on two opposing sides being unable to reach an agreement. Almost all wars end on a negotiated agreement, but it's hard to see a settlement with this one for a while. The only way to end it in the short term would be if the Europeans wind down support, forcing Ukraine to accept loss of occupied territory as a defeat. The English speaking Western nations are strong in their support; if anyone blinks, it will be the Europeans who are economically dependent on Russia.

[willedoo]

Hindsight doesn't really tell us if this war would never have happened if things were handled differently in the 2014, 2015 period. Perhaps Putin has always had a long term plan to take part of Ukraine, and nothing would have changed history.

 

In the early time of the Donbass breakaway regions, public opinion in those areas was split fairly evenly three ways. One lot wanted to become part of Russia, another wanted to break away from Ukraine and remain independent. The third lot wanted to remain part of Ukraine, but with a stronger degree of autonomy. Poroschenko was set on taking back the Donbass by force rather than negotiating any autonomy agreement, and that's when the war started back then.

 

Leading up to the Minsk Agreements, the Russians were pushing the idea of a federated Ukraine, which would give the Donbass provinces status of states under a Ukrainian federation of states. Ukraine rejected the idea and remained a non federal country made up of local provinces. The pro autonomy, or statehood within Ukraine group were hoping to be able to remain part of Ukraine, but have the power to legislate from a state perspective on issues like language in schools and government. Presumably, they would have pushed for revenue in the form of levies or royalty payments for exports of coal, iron ore and grain to other parts of Ukraine.

 

As history didn't go that way, we'll never know how it would have worked out if the Ukrainian Poroschenko government had offered a form of autonomy within Ukraine peace deal instead of the military option. The ironic thing is that the current Ukrainian government has Poroschenko on charges of treason and funding terrorism because his government purchased coal from the breakaway regions throughout the conflict.

 

 

Edited June 10, 2022 by willedoo

[old man emu]

Probably the only way that a Full Stop would be put to this war is the death of Putin and an overthrow of his cohorts. Then perhaps a new generation will bring Russia back to a peaceful co-existence. There's no need to change them from being a communist system if that's what the Russian people want. Maybe when they see how Putin and his cronies have hogged the wealth in a positively un-communist way, the Russian people might rise up against corruption. Maybe Albo can sell them a package deal on an ICAC.

[willedoo]

22 minutes ago, old man emu said:

Probably the only way that a Full Stop would be put to this war is the death of Putin and an overthrow of his cohorts. Then perhaps a new generation will bring Russia back to a peaceful co-existence. There's no need to change them from being a communist system if that's what the Russian people want. Maybe when they see how Putin and his cronies have hogged the wealth in a positively un-communist way, the Russian people might rise up against corruption. Maybe Albo can sell them a package deal on an ICAC.

A bit late to the party. ome. They dropped communism in 1991. The Communist Party is still one of two main opposition parties, getting around 15% of the vote. The only thing vaguely resembling their communist past is government shareholding in a lot of crucial industries. There's the underlying authoritarianism, but that's not only restricted to communist countries.

[Old Koreelah]

 

 

 

This video is well worth watching. It outlines Russia’s dependence on exporting oil and gas to Europe and how they’ve gone to war to prevent their neighbours exporting in competition. The most facinating aspect was the recent discovery, by BP and others, that Ukraine has massive reserves of gas and oil and could rival Russia in supplying Western Europe. Putin has invaded most of those gas fields and seems set to strangel Ukraine’s ports.

[onetrack]

Hmmmm ... this 2020 article is interesting, I didn't know how important Ukraine was, in the overall scheme of European, and Russian, oil and gas supplies.

Now we can actually see some method in Putins madness.......

 

https://hir.harvard.edu/ukraine-energy-reserves/

[rgmwa]

The Europeans and US are probably.just as aware of Ukraine’s resources and hopefully as keen to keep them out of Putin’s hands as he is to get his hands on them.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Hope you don't want to buy a Toyota in Russia:

 

[onetrack]

I doubt very much that many average Russians could afford a new Toyota before the Russian-Ukraine War, anyway - and new car prices have gone up substantially around the world as the manufacturers all decided they were going to make more money on each vehicle produced - as production numbers have been curtailed drastically, thanks to COVID-19, the semi-conductor shortage, JIT failures due to shipping and supply shortfalls - and even ships catching fire and going down with thousands of new cars on board!

 

One thing's for sure - the drug dealers and crims with profitable scams will still be able to have their new luxury vehicle requirements filled!

 

 

[facthunter]

Mafia STAFF Cars. Nev

[willedoo]

Another Russian Su-25 made it back to base after a Ukrainian MANPADS hit.

 

[willedoo]

Ukraine has received 22 155mm Howitzers from Norway and crews are being trained on them in Germany.