Sanctions against Russia

[Old Koreelah]

On 23/6/2022 at 7:32 PM, willedoo said:

The two seat MiG-15 was around for a long time as there were no two seat MiG-17 or Mig-19 versions built. The UTI MiG-15 was the primary fast jet trainer until the MiG-21 came out with a two seat trainer variant.

I was once near the runway at Narromine to witness a pilot and his young son climb into a two-seat MiG-15. The painfully long take-off was stressful to watch. I feared a fireball was about to happen, but it finally lifted off near the end of 29.  
 

It made up for the slow take-off; on the walk back to my camp I phoned my wife to tell her what I’d just seen. She was in the backyard in Tamworth and said the MiG was just passing over her!

 

[willedoo]

1 hour ago, Old Koreelah said:

I was once near the runway at Narromine to witness a pilot and his young son climb into a two-seat MiG-15. The painfully long take-off was stressful to watch. I feared a fireball was about to happen, but it finally lifted off near the end of 29.  
 

It made up for the slow take-off; on the walk back to my camp I phoned my wife to tell her what I’d just seen. She was in the backyard in Tamworth and said the MiG was just passing over her!

 

They're a bit slow to accelerate. They probably need a minimum 5,000' runway. On take-off, you'd easily use up 1,500'. On take-off they leave the Sabre behind due to the MiG's higher thrust to weight ratio. The Sabre is almost two tonnes heavier. They say the MiG-15 is a bit of a handful to fly. At least the Polish built ones that made their way out here are a better build quality than their Soviet built counterparts. The Russian factories had a lot of quality control problems.

[willedoo]

Here's a screen grab of a Maxim machine gun mounted on an old Soviet era wagon. Apparently a common setup for the Territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine, which by my understanding are a bit like the CMF or Army Reserve. The Ukrainians seem to be very resourceful. Another thing they are doing is using commercial off the shelf drones to drop munitions on landmines to do mine clearance of roads.

[willedoo]

Russian tanks.

Edited June 25, 2022 by willedoo

[Yenn]

So far the whole world seems to agree that Russia is an aggressor and that it is committing war crimes. We seem to be sitting around like a load of old women, bemoaning the fact that we are gutless when it comes to Ukraine. Biden said before Russia invaded that the USA would not send troops, or in other words he invited Putin to attack.

Now we have no strategy for ending this war, just a policy of pouring munitions into Ukraine until they run out of soldiers to use the weapons.

The NATO group are getting ready to fight WW2 again and are bolstering their numbers.

It appears that all except Russia and a few other places such as Belorous are afraid of what will happen if the Ukraine gets on top of Russia. Putin will then be a cornered animal and will use nuclear weapons against NATO.

If Russia prevails and the Ukraine is defeated, what next? It is obvious that Putin would then continue has aggression. Are we going to stand by again and watch another country destroyed?

The clowns that are making the most noise about this problem, Biden, Boris Johnson and all the other politicians need to look at the future. We need someone to spell it out to Putin that any use of nuclear weapons will result in immediate annihilation of Russia. Maybe London and Washington would be attacked, but retaliation should limit the extent of the devastation.

If we don't point out to Putin that this will happen we are just going to see countries devastated and the whole world thrown into war again.

[willedoo]

Putin might not be physically using nuclear weapons, but his nuclear weapons are winning for him because the possession of them is the only reason the West is too scared to put boots on the ground in Ukraine. Nukes aside, with Western boots on the ground, the whole thing would be over in weeks.

 

Yenn, I agree that Putin needs to clearly understand that the use of nukes will result in the total destruction of Russia. In other words - you fire one nuke, we obliterate your cities. It all comes down to who has the biggest cohones or at least, the most bluff. Putin preys on any Western weakness. He is where he is because of it. He's playing a game to see if the Western alliance cracks before he runs out of money and arms. Between the two, something has to give.

[Old Koreelah]

In our enthusiasttic support of Ukraine and condemnation of Putin, we tend to forget the Military-Industrial Complex that Eisenhower warned about; the arms manufacturers are going gangbusters to fill massive orders, bankrolled by the taxpayers of western democracies. With their massive profits, they can buy more politicians.

 

[onetrack]

I don't believe Putin is stupid enough to use Nukes, I believe he's a real brinkmanship merchant, taking his cues from the Little Fat Wun. But maybe I'm wrong, maybe he is just deranged enough to believe he can use them and win. However, IMO, no-one could win a Nuclear war, and I hope that Putin fully realises that.

[Jerry_Atrick]

I wouldn't be so sure.. He is not stupide enough to use them too early, but he is quoted as saying a workd without Russia isn't a world worth keeping or some such words. Now, a lot of his words are merely hollow threats, but there is always a shred of substance to his threats. So, when cornered, I think he will serioulsy consider nuclear attack as an option, and no doubt, London will be on his hit list.

 

This is an early April video, and I may have previouslly posted it, but this could explain why the west hasn't been quite so hasty in being more active:

 

 

 

[willedoo]

The Ukrainians have retaken Snake Island in the Black Sea after bombarding it with missile strikes on Thursday night. The Russians did a runner and are claiming they decided to withdraw as a 'gesture of goodwill'. It's hard to keep a straight face when you read stuff like that.

 

Snake Island is critical to keeping the Russian Navy out of that part of the Black Sea leading to Odessa. The Ukrainians really need to fortify it with anti-ship long range missile batteries and some heavy duty surface to air defence units that can knock out the Russian ship and submarine missiles. If they don't, they're just another temporary tenant.

Edited July 2, 2022 by willedoo

[facthunter]

I ask .Who could now trust Putin (even the Chinese)? You do a trade deal and then use it as a weapon. Not on. Maybe ONCE. but no more. They also openly lied to the UN and everybody else and Putin keeps the truth from his own people. Trump thinks He (Putin) is clever by deceiving but it all comes out (eventually).  They are BOTH stand Over men.  Nev

[willedoo]

Correction on Snake Island: The Ukrainians haven't physically re-occupied the island. The bombardment drove the Russian forces off the island. (Russian version - withdrew as a gesture of goodwill). At this stage it's unoccupied. The Russians since have launched missiles at the island to destroy the gear they left there.

[Jerry_Atrick]

5 hours ago, facthunter said:

You do a trade deal and then use it as a weapon. Not on. Maybe ONCE. but no more.

Hmm. Sadly, I think there are those that will want to make money or win votes come what may [edit] and some (i.e. of the population) that are happy to be complicit as long as what they get is cheap. 

 

Just look at the people who vote these clowns in and continue to do so.

Edited July 3, 2022 by Jerry_Atrick

[willedoo]

I see Albo has made a visit to Ukraine, promising more Bushmasters, APC's and drones. It's refreshing to see him out and about so early in the new term and trying to do the right thing. Maybe I'm a bit too cynical regarding his predecessor, but I think if SFM went there, it would be mainly for the spin and PR to gain voter support at home.

 

Views on Albo might change over time depending on his performance, but at this stage he seems fairly genuine. A big danger for Ukraine is if the West grows tired of it and start waning in support. That Western weakness trait is exactly what Putin is aware of, and what he is banking on. I'm not a fan of Boris Johnson, but he seems to have been unwavering and strong in support. Let's hope we can keep it up as well.

Edited July 4, 2022 by willedoo

[rgmwa]

It looks like Putin will soon get the Donbas region, or what's left of it. The question is will that be enough for him to claim victory for his Special Military Operation and stop there, or will he keep going with the war? If so, what's his end game?  If he pushes on to try and get the rest of Ukraine, at which point does NATO step in or finally step away?

[Marty_d]

The war's not going to end if Russia claims Donbas and says "that's it".  

There would be an ongoing guerilla campaign of assassinating senior Russians or Russian puppets.  Apparently it's already started with 3 car bombings recently.

[rgmwa]

It would only work if the Ukrainians also agreed to call it a day.

If they don't, which seems likely as long as they keep getting weapons and are willing to keep fighting, then Putin won't be able to stop either, even if he decided he'd won round one on points.

Hard to see any outcome other than a long and bitter fight.

 

[kgwilson]

While the Russians now control most of the cities in the Donbas they have nothing to offer as they have a scorched earth policy so most of the cities are rubble and burned out buildings devoid of people. Ukraine says it still controls 45% of the Dondas region.

[willedoo]

2 hours ago, Marty_d said:

The war's not going to end if Russia claims Donbas and says "that's it".  

There would be an ongoing guerilla campaign of assassinating senior Russians or Russian puppets.  Apparently it's already started with 3 car bombings recently.

Most of the partisan activity has been outside the Donbass, around Kherson and Melitopol of the Kherson and Zaporizhzia Oblasts respectively. In those southern areas, most people are Russian speaking but are loyal to Ukraine. That will make it a much tougher area to hold for the Russians as opposed to the two Donbass Oblasts where there is a lot of Russian support.

 

From Ukraine's point of view, the south region is critical to their Black Sea access for exports and imports. Odessa is the only major port left in Ukrainian hands and they can't ship from there now because of Ukrainian defensive mines and the threat of Russian Naval ships and submarines. I think Ukraine would like to get back a slab of the south before entering any peace deal. Unless they were to re-take Crimea, I think they might as well kiss goodbye to any ports in the Azov sea. But aside from the lost Azov Sea ports, the Dnieper River and Kherson are critical to Ukraine to get back under their control.

[willedoo]

7 minutes ago, kgwilson said:

Ukraine says it still controls 45% of the Dondas region.

More likely 45% of the Donetsk Oblast. Russia now controls the whole of Luhansk Oblast after the Ukrainians withdrew from the last remaining city there. The remaining part of the Donetsk Oblast in Ukrainian hands will be hard for Russia to take as they would have to take forces away from the  south and north east which would weaken those areas now held by Russian forces. The other factor is that the Ukrainians were fighting in the Luhansk province inside a salient with narrow, threatened supply lines. On the other hand, the front line in Donetsk region is broader, with better supply lines and options.

[willedoo]

Some more Ukrainian innovation. Here they are converting a Unimog to be used as a lightweight multi launch rocket system; 4 launch tubes salvaged from destroyed Russian BM-21 'Grad' launchers are used.

[willedoo]

Here's a couple of photos of a Russian bulk carrier unloading stolen Ukrainian grain in Turkey. I think the West only tolerates Turkey because they are strategically so important in the area. They are all over the place - a Russian friendly member of NATO supplying arms to Ukraine to kill Russians who supply them with oil, gas and a large section of their tourist dollars. And to top it off, they're now buying grain stolen from the people they are arming to kill the people who are paying them for the grain. Turkey gets curiouser and curiouser.

[rgmwa]

22 hours ago, willedoo said:

Some more Ukrainian innovation. Here they are converting a Unimog to be used as a lightweight multi launch rocket system; 4 launch tubes salvaged from destroyed Russian BM-21 'Grad' launchers are used.

... and using a welder from Bunnings to put it together.

 

[willedoo]

I like this one.

[facthunter]

Putler knows how to motivate  troops, but only the enemy ones.. Just WHO would want to operate under his regime, given a free choice. Same with China and Taiwan. If China is so good why would they not unify freely?  If I  smash you all up will you LOVE me, eventually?  I can't see anywhere that happens. Nev