Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

Wagners are a professional military contracting company similar to the American Blackwater. I don't know how good their abilities are though. The Americans allegedly wiped out around 200 of them in Syria in a battle. The other mercenaries are a bit rough around the edges, especially the Chechens. They just seem to want to fight and yell out Allan's Snackbar with every burst of fire. I don't think they're interested in the money, just the fighting. The Ukrainians definitely have the stronger reason to fight.

[facthunter]

So far the ONLY real fact that's emerging is that Putin's army is not so good and has been perhaps mortally wounded. IF more truth emerges who will it disadvantage Ukraine or Russia? I  suggest the latter. Russia is in more Jeopardy than it was 6 months ago.  Nev

[Marty_d]

Yeah - as decisions go, invading Ukraine is on a par with that guy who spent 10,000 bitcoin on a couple of pizzas.

[willedoo]

More helicopters are arriving in Ukraine, this time from Latvia who has given two Mi-8MTV-1 and two Mi-2 units. There is also still talk of the MiG-29s coming from Slovakia, possibly up to 12 aircraft.

 

It's been an ongoing trend for the ex Eastern Bloc countries to hand off their old ex Soviet and Russian gear to Ukraine. It's a win/win situation. Ukraine gets immediate weaponry they are familiar with, meaning less training time, and the other countries are able to offload their old gear and re-equip with newer NATO gear.

 

[willedoo]

15 hours ago, facthunter said:

So far the ONLY real fact that's emerging is that Putin's army is not so good and has been perhaps mortally wounded. IF more truth emerges who will it disadvantage Ukraine or Russia? I  suggest the latter. Russia is in more Jeopardy than it was 6 months ago.  Nev

I think if it drags on, Russia will definitely be mortally wounded to the point where it would be many years before they could do something like this again with conventional forces. Hopefully by then, Putin would be long gone and some sanity might prevail in the Kremlin.

 

Analysts world wide were shocked to see the true state of Russia's military when the war erupted. Previously, there were estimates that Russia could take the Baltics in three to five days (sounds familiar); other estimates that NATO would struggle to win a conventional land battle against Russia. The truth has emerged that Russia has a lot of old, badly maintained gear, window dressed by a much smaller amount of high tech newer developments. It just goes to show how effective propaganda is with announcements of new weaponry and impressive parades of military might. I can't help but wonder if China is in the same boat with all their pomp and might.

 

Aside from equipment, the other part of the equation is the Russian military's terrible command structure. They have an outdated command structure that is fundamentally flawed, combined with high levels of incompetence and corruption. Even if Putin or his successor was to be able to eventually re-build the equipment strength of the army, it would take many years to reform the military structure and thinking to come up to par. The rot is so entrenched, it won't go away in any short time. They have fat, lazy, incompetent generals, a huge gap in capability of middle ranked officers, and a big mass of confused, poorly trained grunts at the bottom of the ladder.

 

The only reason Russia has been able to get to this point is their massive stocks of heavy artillery and conventional munitions. They've pounded their way into Ukraine due to their superior artillery numbers. That's the big challenge for Ukraine and it's Western suppliers. Take Russia's artillery out of the equation, and they haven't got much else left.

 

 

[onetrack]

What a lovely playout of Karmic payback - for the Russians to now be on the receiving end of the armaments they designed and built, with the primary intention of destroying their enemies?

[facthunter]

I reckon flying a chopper there wouldn't be much safer than being in a tank. You mightn't fry so quickly but with Lased guided weapons about you'd be just as dead..   Nev

[kgwilson]

There is a 4 part doco on Netflix called "The Age of Tanks". It is French produced but in English and tracks the history of Tanks from their invention through many wars, invasions and insurrections etc to the modern day. It is well worth watching. The end conclusion is that while there are some pretty impressive technological developments in recent times their time is basically up.

[facthunter]

Probably Manned Submarines too. Nev

[Yenn]

As far as I was concerned the time for tanks was up in the fifties. I worked on them and also drove them and was lucky I never had to go to war in them. The mid fifties saw tanks so large that they could only be transported on massive transporters and they would no be capable in the mud of a lot of European countries. They could not get across river bridges, either because thay were too wide or too heavy and would destroy the bridge and most of the raoads they travelled on.

If you see the damage done to a tank by anti tank weapons, you would never want to be inside one.

[willedoo]

1 hour ago, Yenn said:

As far as I was concerned the time for tanks was up in the fifties. I worked on them and also drove them and was lucky I never had to go to war in them. The mid fifties saw tanks so large that they could only be transported on massive transporters and they would no be capable in the mud of a lot of European countries. They could not get across river bridges, either because thay were too wide or too heavy and would destroy the bridge and most of the raoads they travelled on.

If you see the damage done to a tank by anti tank weapons, you would never want to be inside one.

I seem to remember something in the history of the Coral and Balmoral battle that the Centurions had a bit of trouble on the way there with bridges bearing the weight. At one stage, they used the Centurions at Coral for clearing the VC/NVA out of the B-52 bomb craters. They were using the craters for cover and setting up MG posts, so the Centurions were routing them with anti personnel shot at point blank range from the crater rim. South Vietnam was probably our last active use of them. I don't think we ever deployed any to the Middle East effort, as far as I know.

 

During WW2, my dad did the standard infantry training with tanks, learning to fight alongside them. The training camp was at Bribie Island in Queensland using Matildas and Lee tanks. The yanks were there involved with the training as well.

[willedoo]

3 hours ago, facthunter said:

I reckon flying a chopper there wouldn't be much safer than being in a tank. You mightn't fry so quickly but with Lased guided weapons about you'd be just as dead..   Nev

They don't have much protection, only deploying chaff. In the footage from early in the war when there were fleets of Alligators attacking around Kiev, you could see them laying out a continuous stream of chaff as they flew low to the target area. Once they run out of that, they're sitting ducks. The Kamov Alligators have ejection seats, but they're far from an exact science in a chopper, especially at those low levels.

[willedoo]

The weapons used to bring down the aircraft are usually heat seekers and will often strike around the jet nozzle area. That's about the only chance you would get in an Alligator, if the cockpit didn't get a direct hit. I think you would need all your ducks lined up to get a successful ejection from one. I think the seats work alright when the cockpit is in an upright position, but not sure how good they are at angles far off vertical. They're a totally different seat system to the fighter planes. The blades and frangible canopy blow, then pilot and co-pilot seats are yanked out by a rocket unit. They are pulled out rather than propelled out like the fixed wing seats. There's a lot to go wrong.

[willedoo]

This video on Twitter is the latest Crimean ammo dump hit. It's like cracker night. It needs the sound turned on. It looks like they've lost their entire stock.

 

https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/1559687759522062338

Edited August 17, 2022 by willedoo

[willedoo]

They're game to be sitting in that bus filming. Some of those exploding munitions seem to be getting fairly close.

[willedoo]

I think after multiple sabotage attacks in Crimea recently, the Russians will be getting a bit nervous about the safety of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol harbour.

[Bruce Tuncks]

I have been wondering if the "anti-nuclear" speech by Putin was not forced on him by his subordinates. If you are Russian, starting a nuclear war would mean that you and yours will be dead before the day is out. Putin himself would be deep underground, but would meet his end when he finally surfaced to a much worse country than in his memories.

[nomadpete]

We have a 'God help America' thread.

This is turning into a 'God help Russia' thread.

[facthunter]

Valid point. Nev

[kgwilson]

That is if you believe there is a god. Putin has to as his aggressive efforts to date have seen his armed forces severely weakened and his country and people suffering as well as being ostracised by almost everyone except Kim & Xi.

[willedoo]

1 hour ago, kgwilson said:

That is if you believe there is a god. Putin has to as his aggressive efforts to date have seen his armed forces severely weakened and his country and people suffering as well as being ostracised by almost everyone except Kim & Xi.

It would be good if it was just Kim & Xi. I think part of the problem is the amount of countries that have failed to condemn him and vote for censure and withdrawal of his forces in the U.N.. It's around 27% of U.N. member countries. It's mainly Africa, the Stans, China, India, Mongolia and a handful of S.E. Asian and South American countries, but it's enough for him to claim it's only the West against him.

 

Most of those countries play it safe because of their trade and economic ties, plus their dependence on Russian arms. Others that don't help are the ones with ties to Russia who are having a bob each way with their soft approach. Most obvious in that category is Turkey and the Middle Eastern countries, including Israel. The problem is Russian money and influence is right through those countries. Hopefully in the future, that will change.

[willedoo]

It makes you wonder whether this is all the result of one warped individual. Is Putin the only one with delusional dreams of securing a Soviet style Greater Russia? If he dropped dead tomorrow, would it all wind down and Russia cease to become any form of long term threat to European and World security? With Putin's KGB styled centralist way of consolidating power, it's hard to identify a Putin MK.2 waiting in the wings.

 

Personally, I don't think the brain dead sycophants surrounding him would have it in them to pursue similar policy collectively. Also, any up and coming strongman with a shred of logic could see it as being much more profitable to completely reverse Putin's path. Logic in the Kremlin. Now there's a revolutionary idea.

[facthunter]

Putin has gone to extraordinary lengths to cement his position as a DICTATOR  based on KGB tactics. I can't see circumstances permitting  a repeat of this phenomenon. I doubt a repeat could be arranged especially as the Older Ruskies pass on. Russia's future must be less assured with the residue of distrust and weakened power resulting from this little effort. Nev

[Old Koreelah]

51 minutes ago, willedoo said:

… it's hard to identify a Putin MK.2 waiting in the wings.

Strong leaders from Menzies to Stalin purged potential rivals, leaving a class of sycophants who knew to keep their heads down.
A small number of Russia’s elite has spoken out against his invasion, presumably positioning themselves for the aftermath of his inevitable demise.

[facthunter]

Watch out for the glorious Death where it all goes west with him.  He's bat$#!t crazy you know... Neev (from Keev