Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

8 hours ago, Bruce Tuncks said:

I would have thought the black sea naval headquarters was a valid HIMARS target.

It is Bruce, but the Americans have been hesitant to give them the long range ammo. Officially, at present time, the longest range ammo they have is 80klm.. They've been using that to knock out ammo dumps and command posts closer to the front lines. The closest the Ukrainians can launch from to hit Crimea is around 220klm.. The long range munition the Americans wouldn't give them has a range of 300klm..

 

I recon if the Americans gave them that ammunition, the war would be over in no time. They'd be able to wipe out the Black Sea Fleet, the Crimea bridge (which is road and rail), plus the air bases and ammunition storage. If Ukraine knocked Crimea out of the equation, Putler wouldn't have many options left. Only nuclear, and he knows that means goodbye Russia if global nuclear war happens..

Edited August 21, 2022 by willedoo

[willedoo]

46 minutes ago, pmccarthy said:

Revolver drone

 

There's been a lot of footage of small drones dropping mortar rounds and  self propelled grenade rounds onto tanks and armoured vehicles. In a lot of the footage, the tanks and vehicles look like they've been abandoned. My theory is that the Russians have abandoned them intact in an area that's too risky for Ukrainian forces to capture and retrieve them. So the Ukrainians take the second best option and use the drones to destroy the vehicles, and deny the Russians further use of them. Because they've been abandoned, a lot of them have hatches left open and the Ukrainian drones have been scoring bull's eye hits straight down the hatch to explode inside.

[willedoo]

The Russians are saying a few soldiers are in hospital with botulism and they're claiming Ukraine has used chemical weapons. The truth is probably that they found some in a bottle and drank it. This is the same army that captured the Chernobyl disaster site and dug in with ground level bunkers in The Forest, which is the most contaminated, no go part of the whole area. They had a fat old time for a couple of months glowing in the dark in their radioactive bunkers.

 

Meanwhile, the Russian press is in a contest to see who can come up with the most loony tune post of the day. After the war started, most of the sensible and moderate staff and editors either quit or were fired and replaced by the three stooges. All the foreign contributors and commentary writers who previously provided some balance are all gone. The latest trick is using ten year old photos of Putler from when he was skinny, before the steroid bloated face and rheumy eyes. How to make the public think he's healthy? - easy, only show them old photos.

[willedoo]

It looks like Putin finally got his way. Russian tanks and armour are in the centre of Kiev city.

 

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1561334866758836224

 

 

 

 

[onetrack]

Now, the guerrilla warfare is right up to Putin. A Landcruiser belonging to one of his staunchest supporters has exploded - but unfortunately, the bomb didn't get the target, it got his daughter, because she swapped cars with him today.

Putin's response to this will be interesting, I reckon we'll see a heap of locals arrested and tortured now, trying to weed out the instigators.

But I reckon Putin will be sh***ing himself every time he hears a backfire now, though. I wouldn't be in the least surprised to see Putins limo go up with a hidden bomb in the road, like the Mafia got the judge, Giovanni Falcone.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-21/darya-dugin-dies-in-moscow-car-explosion-reports/101355084

 

Edited August 21, 2022 by onetrack

[facthunter]

Token wins won't work. It gets very dirty  after this.  Nev

[willedoo]

20 hours ago, willedoo said:

The closest the Ukrainians can launch from to hit Crimea is around 220klm.

Just a small correction there. That's an approximate distance from the Ukrainian front lines to the Belbek air base that was hit last week. Belbek is halfway down the west coast of Crimea. Some of the northern parts of Crimea are less distance from front lines, but still more than the current HIMARS munition range of around 80 klm..

[willedoo]

The Ukrainian HIMARS are causing a lot of logistic problems for the Russians. After losing a lot of ammunition storage dumps, the only safe option is to place the dumps further from front lines, out of HIMARS range. This is slowing down the transport and supply to Russian front lines. Another dump was destroyed last night in Donetsk Oblast, more than 60klm from the front line.

 

I was looking at a map of Crimea that showed the area where the ammunition dump in central northern Crimea was destroyed last week. There's reports that the train line from Russia is cut at present time, and it could have been taken out in that same attack. The rail line comes across the Crimea bridge, then heads north west straight through the town where the dump blew up. There's always the possibility that rail wagons loaded with munitions went up, taking the rail line with it. The majority of Russian supplies are coming by road and rail across the Crimea bridge.

[willedoo]

You would think most of the destroyed Russian ammunition dumps were the result of Ukrainian attacks. There would always be the possibility that one or two were accidents. The Russians have been stockpiling a lot of them out in the open in temporary storage areas. Their stocks are getting down and they are getting into old stored stock which could have some safety issues. That combined with the need for a lot of physical manhandling of the munition stocks  could cause problems.

[facthunter]

It's starting to look like the Keystone Cops, or Police Academy Z. Nev

[willedoo]

26 minutes ago, facthunter said:

It's starting to look like the Keystone Cops, or Police Academy Z. Nev

Keystone Cops often come to mind.

 

It's easy to understand the lack of morale among the Russian troops when you see this photo. It's from the diary of a Russian airborne soldier from a regiment that is supposed to be an elite paratrooper unit. It shows the garbage food they were fed in Crimea during training just before the war started. A plate of sloppy buckwheat, a slice of chemical ham, a small tin of butter, stale bread, a bun, small carton of milk and some soft drink looking stuff. Imagine feeding our commandos or SAS on that and expecting them to fight. On the front, they mainly get dry ration packs which is just junk in a fancy package. If that's how they treat their elite troops, I wouldn't want to be an ordinary grunt from an infantry unit.

 

Edited August 22, 2022 by willedoo

[willedoo]

The administration officials in occupied Mariupol have posted screenshots of texts being sent out to Mariupol residents. They're being offered 200,000 to 300,00 Rubles per month too sign up to a Donetsk Republic military contract. That's around 3,300 to 5,000 USD per month. Throwing that sort of money at an untrained, unmotivated recruit goes to show how desperate they are getting. Everything Russia is doing in Ukraine is unsustainable.

 

Like a lot of dictators, Putin just can't admit defeat. From here on, Russia's role is solely as a wrecker. Like a big pack of cards that will come tumbling down one day.

[facthunter]

 Poutler..If I can't win I'll smash up all your stuff and take my bat and ball home. The Ukraine leader is now playing the Kossack card.  Nev

[willedoo]

The ISW (Institute for the Study of War) run very good daily assessments with updated maps of the entire front activities. Here's some observations based on their assessments:

 

The Russians continue to make some very small gains from small force assaults in various areas. They seem to be unable to commit enough resources to any one offensive operation to regain the momentum necessary for significant territorial advances that translate to operational successes. It's looking like they've stalled and are unlikely to be able to carry out any more major offensive actions that will give them large territorial gains. They're under resourced and spread thin over a front hundreds of kilometres long. For any major assault, they would have to transfer troops from other parts of the front. If they gain in one area, they lose in another.

 

Russia's small assaults are enabling the Ukrainians to strategically withdraw to better defensive positions, and prepare for pushback. Even though the Russians gradually make small gains daily, they are on the losing end of it as they have troops and equipment tied up for no significant tactical gain.

 

It's no wonder the Russians have been hoping for a settlement deal where they get to keep some land. Also understandable that Ukraine want's to keep fighting, as every day they do, Russia gets weaker. Putin complains that the U.S. is seeking to prolong the war by arming Ukraine. You don't need to be a brain surgeon to realise that. Stopping the war now means Russia has a win of some sort. Prolonging it means Russia will be defeated. Putin is trying to make the U.S. and NATO the baddies, but the reality is that he knows that he will be stuffed if the war drags on.

 

There might be a considerable increase in activity soon as Ukraine needs to make some serious headway before the winter sets in. If the current lines don't change before winter, it will give the Russians breathing space to regroup, dig in and create better defences. That will make Ukraine's job of regaining territory that much harder come next spring.

Edited August 22, 2022 by willedoo

[willedoo]

Reading the daily reports of small Russian gains can make you think that the Russians, given time, will eventually grind the Ukrainians down. I can see it the other way. Ukraine is trading small areas of territory to grind down, tie up and frustrate the Russians. I'm continually in awe at Ukraine's fighting ability and their intelligent approach right from the beginning. The world had certainly underrated them until this started.

[willedoo]

16 hours ago, onetrack said:

Now, the guerrilla warfare is right up to Putin. A Landcruiser belonging to one of his staunchest supporters has exploded - but unfortunately, the bomb didn't get the target, it got his daughter, because she swapped cars with him today.

They don't seem to know at this stage whether he alone or both of them were the target. He's a nasty piece of work. Some say he was a driving force behind Putler's decision to invade Ukraine. Alexander Dugin is a staunch nationalist who has long called for all Russian speaking land to be incorporated into a greater Russian empire. In 2014 he called modern Ukrainians a degenerate race that crawled up from the sewer and are deserving of genocide. His daughter was a journalist and political analyst who often appeared in the media in support of her father's extreme views. I don't think she was an innocent victim. They were both leaving a nationalist festival when it happened.

[facthunter]

Yes It's very NASTY stuff they BOTH spit out. I understand HE was going to travel with Her but pulled out.  They are more extreme even that Trumps rednecks. . Do THEY realise how like the Nazis they  speak?  Nev

[willedoo]

Maybe it's karma. He might get an idea now of the loss thousands of parents in Ukraine feel as a direct result of his push for war in Ukraine.

[facthunter]

That's an effect that will become more widespread as people in Russia come to realise how costly of life it's for THEM. The Body bags from  Vietnam going back to the US was similar. When It's your OWN the numbers count. You demonise the others so they don't count. This war has a  long common boundary and it more resembles the American civil war than most other wars do.  There's NO winners in this one. The LEGACY is more HATE.  ANY war of significance is going to disrupt vast areas of the planet as we really are so Interdependent and there's no slack anywhere to absorb changes of supplies. We here have practically NO reserves of liquid Hydrocarbon fuels. How DUMB is that?    Nev

[willedoo]

Gee, the Russian FSB must be brilliant investigators. Within two days of the car bombing assassination, they've cracked the case, identified the perpetrator and released all the details and video footage of her entering the country and the victims apartment block, then leaving the country. Of course it was a female Azov battalion neo-nazi working for the Ukraine security services. Just amazing work. Putin should pay them more.

[facthunter]

Impossibly quick and therefore SUSS.. Any thinker can see that but crank up the propaganda machine another notch for another day of triumph for the Gloria Sleeda. Nev

[willedoo]

Like all crime investigations, motive is a big part. Ukraine has no motive to carry out terrorist attacks; they know it will have no bearing on the outcome of the war. Ukraine needs arms shipments, not terrorism. On the other hand, there would be a dozen different reasons why the FSB would have the motive to do it.

[onetrack]

Great work on the part of the FSB! Of course, we all know only nasty Neo-Nazis today, or Chechens in the 1990's, carry out bombings.

 

https://css.ethz.ch/en/services/digital-library/articles/article.html/105850

[willedoo]

It's been a roller coaster ride for the Russians. They've gone from security people and officers pre arranging accommodation in Kiev just prior to February 24th., to now doing readiness checks on air raid shelters in Sevastopol.

[onetrack]

I was quite amused by an article in the Guardian where they point out that the FSB has been able to ID the bombing perpetrator (a Ukrainian woman with a 12 yr old daughter in tow), was able to track her around the country, ID her as the bomb setter, and then track her as she leaves Russia to return to the Ukraine - and all this within a couple of days of the bombing! - yet this result is from an agency that has a room full of unsolved murder, assassination and bombing cases in Russia!  

 

And of course, if they were able to track her and ID her rapidly, carrying such nefarious intent, one has to wonder why the Russian security forces didn't act to arrest her at any stage of her assassination trip? You'd imagine that that both Dugin and his daughter would have security forces watching over them almost constantly - even if it was only to see if they were plotting against Putin!