Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

It's looking like the orcs are in real trouble in the north. The Ukrainian offensive in the last 48 hours appears to have reached the outer regions of  Kupyansk. Kupyansk is another town critical to Russian logistics as a major road and rail hub for supplies. The bridge on the east of town over the Oskii River is destroyed, cutting off all road transport into  Kupyansk from the east. It means the Russians can't reinforce from or retreat east. The rail bridge is just south of the road bridge and will be the next target if it's not already destroyed.

 

If the Russians move troops from other regions to reinforce Kupyansk and Izyum, it leaves them vulnerable somewhere else. They've spread themselves thin to their absolute limit and now it's biting them on the bum. If Ukraine has success here and can hold what they take, it will severely impact Russia's abilities in the northern Donbass region.

[willedoo]

This is drone footage of a Russian T-72 tank retreating from Balakliya, that was liberated by Ukrainian forces yesterday. It shows the tank going like a bat out of hell - three soldiers fall off the top of it before the driver loses control and hits a tree head on.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568407015742914561

 

There are unconfirmed reports that the Russian forces in Izyum are falling apart at the seams. I saw one video of a Russian war journalist and his crew in Izyum fixing a flat tyre and saying they had to get out of Dodge asap. There are other unconfirmed reports that the Russian Lt. General commanding that region has been captured. If true, it would be a good propaganda coup for the Ukrainians.

[willedoo]

I'm wondering whether the Ukrainians have been playing rope a dope with the Russians, or whether they're just showing a good ability to adapt and exploit opportunities. For the last couple of months, there's been speculation about a big Ukrainian counter offensive in the south to retake Kherson. To counteract this, the Russians have reinforced the Kherson region by pulling troops from the north east. The Ukrainians have exploited a weaker line in the Russian defences in the north east, and using speed, armour and the element of surprise, have delivered a big blow to the orcs.

 

The next couple of days will be interesting as more confirmation of Ukrainian gains appears. There's plenty of rumours and unconfirmed reports flying around. Some reports say that Izyum and Kupyansk are completely surrounded. Probably a bit early to believe that one, but if true, and the Ukrainian forces are able to roll up the cut off Russians, there would be big Russian losses and possibly big numbers of Russian POWs. That would be a bit difficult for Putler to sugar coat for the domestic audience back home.

 

A lot of things point to Putler and his ship eventually sinking, but the question is how long before it happens. I can't see anything sustainable in what he's doing. It can only get worse for them from here. That is, as long as the Ukrainians can maintain capable force strength, and the supplying nations don't blink.

 

 

[Marty_d]

5 hours ago, facthunter said:

How does a Pallett float on water with 3 guys on it?  Nev

When you can see the pebbles on the river bottom, you may have your answer.

[willedoo]

I only counted two blokes. Maybe they pushed the third one off to get more freeboard.

[willedoo]

If a lot of the reports coming in are true, it will be a great morale boost for the Ukrainians. Reports are coming in from the Russian side on Telegram channels saying Izyum has surrendered and that the Russians have bugged out from Lyman, and also from Svatove in Luhansk province. Let's hope the reports are true. There's also photos appearing online of Ukrainian troops in Kupyansk. It sounds like the Russians are up sh*t creek without a paddle. It doesn't sound like they are putting up much of a fight, more like a panicked retreat.

[willedoo]

This video is interesting; it shows a Mi-26 loading an armoured vehicle, allegedly to reinforce the Kharkiv area. An amazing helicopter.

 

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1568520217822642176

[willedoo]

A good point:

[willedoo]

When something big happens like the current Ukrainian push against the orcs in the north east, social media erupts in a frenzy. These days everyone has a phone camera and can upload within minutes of an event occurring. The challenge is to filter misinformation and speculation from credible material. It's either that, or wait for the main stream media to catch up a day or two later.

 

The Russian Ministry of Defence press release on their defeat is hilarious; obviously they have no intention of giving up comedy for a living. They are saying they have done a strategic withdrawal of forces to carry out the goals of the special military operation of liberating the Donbass. Also to minimise risk to their forces in transit, they've killed many  thousands of Ukrainian troops and destroyed masses of Ukrainian equipment. Well, that's in the alternative reality of the Kremlin. The truth is that in the last three days, Russia has overtaken all other countries as the largest arms donor to Ukraine. The orcs have run like rabbits and left behind vehicles, armour, artillery and all their intact ammunition storage dumps.

 

It's great to see towns liberated without a shot being fired. Last night, there were videos showing up of emotional civilians greeting the liberators with hugs, tears and kisses. Meanwhile, over the border in Mordor, the press was reporting it as long columns of civilians in vehicles desperately trying to flee the Ukrainian liberators by heading to Russia. Dream on, Vladimir.

[willedoo]

Hopefully the next few days will be as good for Ukraine as the last few. They have the momentum and initiative at the moment; it would be good to see the ball keep rolling. The Russians are on the back foot and would have limited capacity to carry out counter offensives. Most likely by now, they would be trying to figure out how to keep the two main Donbass cities, Luhansk and Donetsk. As of last night, Donetsk was under heavy artillery bombardment. The front line has always been very close to the city, from 2014 until now. If the Ukrainians can take the two capitals, it will be hard for the Russians to hold out.

 

Putin will most likely fight to the last man, or until one of his cronies assassinates him. Yesterday, while the Russian line was crumbling in the north east of Ukraine, he was carrying on in Moscow as if nothing was happening. Russian news headlines were more interested in Putin casting his vote in local elections, meeting school kids, and opening amusement parks. Like Nero fiddling.

[facthunter]

Yes I  don't know where the 3 came from. I must have been russian my post

[willedoo]

59 minutes ago, facthunter said:

Yes I  don't know where the 3 came from. I must have been russian my post

That's ok Nev. Since the war began, almost all Russian units have been understrength compared to claimed numbers.

[Jerry_Atrick]

4 hours ago, willedoo said:

These days everyone has a phone camera and can upload within minutes of an event occurring. The challenge is to filter misinformation and speculation from credible material. It's either that, or wait for the main stream media to catch up a day or two later.

You think the mainstream media are any better than those that just upload their phone vids and presenting the truth? 😉

 

4 hours ago, willedoo said:

The Russian Ministry of Defence press release on their defeat is hilarious; obviously they have no intention of giving up comedy for a living.

They don't care what the rest of the world thinks.. Although it looks like their chances are reducing by the day, they have to keep Josef public believing their narrative to have any hope of keeping supply of fodder to the front lines (if they can even get them there) to have a hope of winning their "special military operation".

 

4 hours ago, willedoo said:

The truth is that in the last three days, Russia has overtaken all other countries as the largest arms donor to Ukraine.

Very benevolent of them, and nice to hear 😉

 

[willedoo]

6 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

You think the mainstream media are any better than those that just upload their phone vids and presenting the truth?

The short answer is no. Most MSM coverage is late to the party, usually someone else's re-hashed story, and any evidence presented is usually based on social media leaks we've already seen. I think a lot of the MSM is staffed by unimaginative hack journalists. Either that, or they're constrained by their editors. All in all, a rather pedestrian bunch.

[willedoo]

Jerry, how do you think Liz Truss will go in relation to this thread topic? Boris has had almost rock star status in Ukraine due to his support and boosted by his personal visits. Liz Truss has given me the impression in the past of being hawkish on the Russia/Ukraine issue. Hopefully the support will continue.

[Yenn]

If as everyone wants the Ukranians do overcome Russia, what do you think will happen?

Do you really think Putin will fold? I think he is mad enough to resort to nuclear weapons and the only sane way out of that situation is for the Russian generals to get rid of Putin. Will they do it? Do they even see a reason to do it? Maybe they are as mad as Putin.

I cannot see Putin doing a Hitler when the time comes. But if he did I would be the first to make a donation for the petrol to speed him on his way.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Despite the US offering far more per GDP than the UK, Boris has rock star status as he was the first major European leader to offer serious arms support to Ukraine. In fact, I think they named a road after him in Kyiv. On that basis, it would be hard to see Truss reaching those heights of admiration, but she is showing she will continue Boris' legacy in that regard, so she will be fairly popular when her words are backed by action. 

 

The risk is, dare I say, Truss will do whatever it takes to hold power, so if for some reason, the public back away from support, or it is no longer in the minds of the British public, if there is something more popular for the public to allocate resources to, she will, regardless of merit. Although BoJo definitely has is issues, one of the things I admire about him is he has his integrity - however misguided it it.

[Jerry_Atrick]

I get my news from this guy and try and treat it with a dose of reality, but this is looking very positive for the Ukranians.

 

[willedoo]

38 minutes ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

I get my news from this guy and try and treat it with a dose of reality, but this is looking very positive for the Ukranians.

Jerry, you're pretty safe with this bloke as an information source, in my opinion. His assessments are accurate, he doesn't indulge in loose speculation and he makes a point of adding disclaimers about confirmation pending. All his info checks out with multiple reliable sources, and he's also very careful not to breach opsec. By the time he makes and posts the video, there's obviously a lag and a lot can happen in the meantime. The good news for Ukraine is that all his projections in regard to that map have now happened.

 

I think it's a good source if you want an all round overview that's reasonably up to date. And it saves you trawling through a million sources like I do to get to the same destination.

[willedoo]

I like this observation from Major General Mick Ryan:

The three great Russian euphemisms of the Russo-Ukraine War:

1. Good will gesture.

2. Smoking accident.

3. Regrouping.

[willedoo]

[willedoo]

Have been viewing some photos and reading about all the booty left behind by the Russians around Izyum. Huge amounts of new gear for the Ukrainian Armed Forces - tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, self propelled howitzers, trucks, APCs, mobile radar units, artillery, the list goes on and on. The orcs were even kind enough to leave behind the ammunition for them.

 

What a mess the Russians have got themselves into. At this stage, unconfirmed reports are talking about a possible 10,000 POWs at Izyum. Before the encirclement, some estimates put the troop numbers there at 15,000 to 20,000. Despite the Kremlin's delusions, there was no orderly withdrawl; it was a case of get out of dodge the best way you can. Whole units had to hoof it on foot with just their small arms. They're probably still wandering around in the bush wondering where their next feed is coming from. This is starting to look like the beginning of the end.

[kgwilson]

Lets hope it is the beginning of the end. Hopefully the Ukrainian supply lines are able to keep up with their advance, the West keeps up its support in armaments, training and technology & Putin gets his comeuppance.

 

I always liked Winston Churchills speech after the victory in North Africa in 1943.

"This is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, it is perhaps the end of the beginning". It was a pretty prophetic and historically accurate statement.

 

That video of the Russian tank trying to escape sums up their attitude to a tee.

[willedoo]

Here's the Russian Defense Ministry's version of their 'regrouping', from a Russian news source:

 

“In order to achieve the goals of the special military operation, a decision was made to regroup troops in the areas of Balakleya and Izyum in order to build up efforts in the Donetsk direction,” the Russian military said in a statement on Saturday.

The troops stationed in the area have been re-deployed over the past three days into territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic, the ministry claimed. During the operation, the military has performed a “number of distracting and demonstration activities imitating the real action of troops,” it added, without providing any further detail on said maneuvers.

In order to prevent damage to Russian troops, the military has been subjecting Ukrainian units in the area to powerful artillery, missile and aircraft attacks, the ministry said, claiming destruction of over 100 armor pieces and artillery, as well as elimination of more than 2,000 Ukrainian and foreign fighters in the past three days. End of quote.

 

I like this bit - "During the operation, the military has performed a number of distracting and demonstration activities imitating the real action of troops”.  I thought they'd been trying to imitate the real action of troops since February 24th..

 

Edited September 12, 2022 by willedoo

[willedoo]