Sanctions against Russia

[kgwilson]

They have increased the penalties for desertion etc. What a great way to motivate troops. There will be plenty of so called reservists pretty keen on disappearing so they don't become canon fodder. The "I'm not bluffing" bluff is the beginning of his desperation. I'd say there are plots for removal being worked on right now. The referenda are a joke to everyone except Putin & his henchmen and his mates are starting to openly criticise his increasing desperate measures. The only card left is the nuclear one so I hope that those who are actually in charge of the big red button stop if he ever says go.

[willedoo]

The mobilisation memes are starting to roll in already.

[willedoo]

Putin started the war as a fair bit of a dickhead, but very rapidly elevated himself to total dickhead status. For instance, this scenario doesn't sound so fanciful:

 

Putin gets his bum kicked badly in Ukraine.

Russia goes to the pack with Kremlin coups, an unhappy populace and a severely degraded and combat incapable army.

Xi has enough of it and moves into a big slab of south east Siberia where a lot of Chinese already live and work.

The West and most of the world doesn't give two hoots what China does to Russia.

The end.

[onetrack]

Surely there must be some apprehension and increasing disbelief of the "Putin line", amongst the general Russian population, as more and more soldiers return home with stories of losses, stuff-ups, lack of military leadership, and low troop morale in the Russian Army operations in Ukraine.

 

At some point the general population rumblings must start to worry the political leadership in Russia, particularly when the general population sees no territory gains inside Ukraine, and the BS stories of Russian "victories" really start to ring hollow.

 

Putin wouldn't dare use nukes of any kind, as he knows what the end result will be. But he's a master of threats and bullying and brinkmanship. The European countries, the U.K. and the U.S. have to stand firm and counter Putins threats with promises that pushing the big red button will be the last thing he'll do, before Moscow is levelled to the ground.

[willedoo]

1 hour ago, onetrack said:

Surely there must be some apprehension and increasing disbelief of the "Putin line", amongst the general Russian population, as more and more soldiers return home with stories of losses, stuff-ups, lack of military leadership, and low troop morale in the Russian Army operations in Ukraine.

 

At some point the general population rumblings must start to worry the political leadership in Russia, particularly when the general population sees no territory gains inside Ukraine, and the BS stories of Russian "victories" really start to ring hollow.

The signs of that apprehension among general Russians have started to show lately, especially since Ukraine's success in Kharkiv province. That was a very brave act the other day by those St. Petersburg district deputies that signed a petition calling on Putin to resign. They could go to jail for that.

 

People in Belgorod, not far over the Russian border from Kharkov city, have known for a long time all is not well. They've had military storage facilities nearby struck by missiles, and have witnessed a lot of night time Russian missile failures that have dropped short after take off. The orcs have been launching a lot of S-300 missiles from Belgorod and having a few failures, probably from using very old stock. The S-300 is an air defence SAM, but they're so short of surface to surface missiles that they are using them (inaccurately) to strike ground targets.

 

Last week, I saw some videos and interviews with Belgorod residents. They were shocked to see hundreds of troops who had fled over the border from Ukraine wandering aimlessly around town trying to buy food and basics from local markets. The locals were in disbelief that the army couldn't supply them with the most basic items like food and clothing. A lot of civilians have been packing their bags and going on the late night Moscow train, so word of Putler's f***up will be getting back to the big city. Surely it's just a matter of time before he goes down.

[rgmwa]

I heard he’s planning to mobilise up to two million reservists. The Russian population must be starting to wonder why this is necessary when the special military operation has been going so well. On the other hand I also heard that 75% of the population support what Putin is doing - up until now anyway. It will be interesting to see if that figure changes after this announcement.

[onetrack]

The Ukrainians published a video of a pair of heavily loaded Russian SU-25's taking off from an unknown airstrip (reported to be Millerovo, Rostov, by those familiar with the region) - and one SU-25 appears to hit the wake turbulence of the other SU-25, develops what is obviously an unplanned right bank - then overbanks to the left in response, which leads to an accelerated stall, and the aircraft hits the ground and explodes in a fireball. 

Conjecture is that the Russian Airforce is using inadequately-trained pilots, and this crash is a result of a pilot still "learning the ropes". No doubt the aircraft was at, or near, MTOW, full of fuel and loaded with armaments, so it would've been a handful at that point. This is reportedly the 21st SU-25 loss by the Russians, I wonder how many of them were due to poor piloting skills?

 

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/32152-russia-su-25-crashes-after-takeoff

[onetrack]

Those highly dangerous Russian buildings appear to have claimed another "accident" victim, one Anatoly Gerashchenko, who was the former head of Moscow's Aviation Institute (MAI).

It's been reported he took a nasty tumble down a flight of stairs at the Headquarters of the Institute. Those Russian buildings really are death traps, people falling out of their windows, and falling down their stairs - someone needs to be held accountable for their terrible design failings. 

 

Gerashchenko is just the latest in a sizeable number of Russians who had have encountered nasty accidents. Funnily enough, they all seem to fall into the category of opposing Putins military moves, or fall into the category of posing a power threat to Putin.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11234941/Russian-former-head-Moscow-Aviation-Institute-dies-falling-flights-stairs.html

[willedoo]

[willedoo]

[Jerry_Atrick]

Flights out of Russia sell out after Putin orders military call-up
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-21/flights-out-of-russia-sell-out-after-putin-orders-partial-call-/101464280

[facthunter]

Called voting with your feet.   Nev

[red750]

On Austrtalia's Border Force a couple of nights ago, Border Force officers hauled in a guy who claimed he was coming to Australia to attend a conference which was already over. When confronted with this, he broke down in tears and admitted he was a Russian living in Ukraine, with a wife and two kids. He said he was being conscripted to the army to kill his countrymen, and had fled the country. His visa was cancelled and he was returned to the Ukraine the next day.

[willedoo]

13 hours ago, onetrack said:

Those highly dangerous Russian buildings appear to have claimed another "accident" victim, one Anatoly Gerashchenko, who was the former head of Moscow's Aviation Institute (MAI).

It's been reported he took a nasty tumble down a flight of stairs at the Headquarters of the Institute. Those Russian buildings really are death traps, people falling out of their windows, and falling down their stairs - someone needs to be held accountable for their terrible design failings. 

 

Gerashchenko is just the latest in a sizeable number of Russians who had have encountered nasty accidents. Funnily enough, they all seem to fall into the category of opposing Putins military moves, or fall into the category of posing a power threat to Putin.

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11234941/Russian-former-head-Moscow-Aviation-Institute-dies-falling-flights-stairs.html

 

[Yenn]

Sounds reminiscent of the late part of the Vietnam war.

I wonder how many Russian servicemen are going back to Russia to spread the word. It seems a lot have stayed in Ukraine on an involuntry basis.

[onetrack]

I like the latest prisoner swap deal, glaring for the inequalities. It seems the Russians think 4 Ukrainian POW's are worth 1 Russian POW.

 

But the Russians have released important Ukrainians, such as the defenders of Mariupol, and others, including foreign fighters, that they said were sentenced to death.

 

On that equality basis, the Ukrainians should be able to get all their POW's released, just for letting a few more Russian POW's go.

 

I'm sure the Ukrainians must have plenty more Russian POW's, or did all the Russian soldiers run like rats?

The Sept 12th report by ABC news (U.S.) said the Russian POW numbers were so large, the Ukrainians were running out of places to house them.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-releases-10-foreigners-captured-ukraine-after-saudi-mediation-riyadh-2022-09-21/

 

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ukraine-initiative-claims-reached-russian-border-89736000

 

Edited September 22, 2022 by onetrack

[Yenn]

The new kind of warfare. Send millions of incompetent troops to attack intending them to defect or get captured and become a big drain on the enemy resources.

During WW2 there was training for British troops so that they could escape or otherwise cause havoc to the German military. It was run I think by MI9.

[facthunter]

IF Putin was that  smart HE would not be in the situation he is in.  The Germans just shot any who attempted to escape.   THEY won't try that again. Easily fixed. Nev

[willedoo]

For anyone interested in reading Putin's alternative reality nonsense, here's the Kremlin's English language translation of his address to the nation regarding mobilisation of forces. Interesting to note, he attempts to convey the message that it was the idea of the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff, and not his. Setting up scapegoats for when it all goes to shite.

 

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/69390#sel=8:18:Wvp,8:33:41G

 

Just as a side note, the page takes some time to load.

Edited September 23, 2022 by willedoo

[willedoo]

Another thing Putin is doing is trying to convince the Russian population that Russia is fighting for it's survival, and that they are at war with NATO and the West by proxy. It's a case of "don't look here, look over there". By pushing that line, he hopes the suckers won't get the idea that his special military f***up is failing badly. It will take time for a considerable amount of the population to realise the truth. When that happens, he'll have problems. But in the meantime, Russia has a population of 145 million, and by the law of averages, there would be quite a few dumb ones to believe his propaganda.

[willedoo]

[willedoo]

Putin is sending more ancient T-62M tanks to Ukraine by rail. It looks like they are going to pad them up with ERA blocks and hope they last more than a couple of days. I doubt the Ukrainians would entertain the thought of using any captured ones; they'll probably put them in a museum where they belong. Talk about scraping the barrel.

[willedoo]

On 22/09/2022 at 11:12 PM, onetrack said:

I like the latest prisoner swap deal, glaring for the inequalities. It seems the Russians think 4 Ukrainian POW's are worth 1 Russian POW.

 

But the Russians have released important Ukrainians, such as the defenders of Mariupol, and others, including foreign fighters, that they said were sentenced to death.

 

On that equality basis, the Ukrainians should be able to get all their POW's released, just for letting a few more Russian POW's go.

 

I'm sure the Ukrainians must have plenty more Russian POW's, or did all the Russian soldiers run like rats?

The Sept 12th report by ABC news (U.S.) said the Russian POW numbers were so large, the Ukrainians were running out of places to house them.

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-releases-10-foreigners-captured-ukraine-after-saudi-mediation-riyadh-2022-09-21/

 

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ukraine-initiative-claims-reached-russian-border-89736000

 

I'm thinking the numbers might reflect the status of the prisoners. I read where Ukraine swapped Viktor Medvedchuk and and about 54 other prisoners or war for 215 Ukrainian POWs, including 108 members of the Azov Battalion that defended Mariupol. Medvedchuk is a high profile civilian. He was a pro Russian opposition leader in Ukraine, under house arrest on fraud charges and was then locked up and charged with treason when the war broke out. He's also a good friend of Putin, who is the godfather of Medvedchuk's daughter. Medvedchuk most likely would have been Putin's annointed Ukrainian President if the orcs had captured Kiev. Maybe the other 54 were senior rank officers; it's just a guess that might explain the imbalance in numbers.

[willedoo]

I don't have any sympathy for the protesters in Russia at the moment. It would be different if they were protesting against the violence perpetrated on Ukraine and it's people, but very few are doing that. Up until this point, most Russians haven't given a thought to the suffering of Ukraine, and have comfortably watched the war from their lounge rooms on state TV, in the same way we watch sport. The reality is, they are protesting the draft now that they realise the war may impact them or their kin. They are self interest protests. All I can say to them is don't forget to pack your brown corduroy pants before you leave for the front. Welcome to the real world.

[willedoo]

In the Russian news today:

"The commander responsible for the army’s logistics and technical support has been relieved of his duties. 

Colonel General Mikhail Mizintsev has been appointed Russia’s deputy defense minister in charge of “material and technical support,” the ministry said in a statement on Saturday.

Mizintsev is replacing Army General Dmitry Bulgakov, who the Defense Ministry said is moving to an unspecified position."

 

Bulgakov's biggest worry would be if that 'unspecified position' is a desk job in an office with a really big window.