Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

The internal solution is not that clear as the question is, who would step up to the plate. All politicians who could be described as dictators, get to that position by surrounding themselves with weaker underlings. There's no obvious stand out candidate there, although it's anyone's guess what's going on behind the scenes. Once the true impact on his supporters sinks in, there will no doubt be some rumblings.

 

The obvious thing would be a military coup of the Russian government to kick Putin out and start to restore some sanity. That would most likely be only a faction of the military as defence minister Shoigu seems to be fully in the Putin camp. There's going to be a pile of influential people who have foreign assets frozen and who cannot travel anywhere, and they're bound to get a bit cranky about that.

[Jerry_Atrick]

A UK government representative was asked on a talkback radio show whether they would send the SAS in to "take out" Putin. His response was, that apart from it being a logistical nightmare because of how well guarded Putin is (which says to me it may have been a suggestion at some stage), that from history, killing a protagonist plunged us into WWI.. and this would be no different. He also went on to say that they believe Putin will be eventually stopped from within - whether the party, military, or interestingly (for me), his oligarchy, who are apparently starting to reverse their original support for the war.

[Jerry_Atrick]

An interesting video popped up on my youtube feed:

 

[Marty_d]

Yeah it's on Tik Tok too apparently (one of my neighbours is addicted to it).

 

May be true - may be not.  They say the first casualty of war is the truth.  I wish all of the Ukrainian fighting forces the very best, including the Ghost (if he exists!)

[willedoo]

Not sure whether he exists or not, but the footage originally posted as being his aircraft in action is from a video game.

[willedoo]

I've noticed the last eighteen months or so that Putin hasn't been himself. He hasn't had his usual spark and has looked puffy in the face, tired and drained. If you follow him regularly, you could see it in his eyes. Video footage of him on holidays at the defence minister's hideaway in Siberia showed him a bit unsteady on his feet in the bush. It's always possible he might be getting early dementia or some other illness and has decided to go out with a bang and leave some great legacy. He'll leave a legacy alright, but it won't be what he has in mind.

[Marty_d]

Well, if it's terminal, I hope it's quick.  Tonight or tomorrow would be perfect.

[Jerry_Atrick]

I was going to agree with that, but who would replace him, and would they be more hardline?

4 hours ago, Marty_d said:

May be true - may be not.  They say the first casualty of war is the truth.

Absolutely true. Nike have announced they will not be welling online into Russia or shipping anymore goods into Russia and gave the reason that getting Shipments to Russia is nigh on impossible... and if people want to get Nike gear to go to their nearest retailer.. but that has somehow been translated to another private sanction. I read it is as commercial imperative rather than an intentional sanction

Edited March 2, 2022 by Jerry_Atrick

[willedoo]

This quote from the Sydney Morning Herald is very telling:

'The Kremlin’s decision to launch war - after months of denying such plans - has shocked Russians accustomed to viewing Putin, their ruler of 22 years, as a methodical strategist.'

A lot of truth in that. Putin has stuffed up badly this time.

 

In today's news, Russia has said they've had 500 soldiers killed and 1500 wounded. That sounds a bit more realistic than Ukraine's claim of 7,000 Russian soldiers killed. Given that the Kremlin probably would be under calling the numbers, the true figure might be somewhere between the two. It's certainly not going as Putin planned.

 

The weakness of Ukraine's air force and air defences really shows with the stalled Russian convoy outside Kiev. Hundreds of Russian tanks and military vehicles have been parked on the highway for two days, virtual sitting ducks. Easy pickings if you had some control of the skies, but if they get to Kiev it will be a real problem.

Edited March 3, 2022 by willedoo

[kgwilson]

You would think that in those 2 days Ukraine could have organised getting artillary or at least snuck up enough firepower to knock out a lot at he front of the line so it does seem that the Ukranians are stretched to the limit. The have or had 200,000 troops and thousands have been signing up since this started. As well able bodied males between 18 & 60 are not allowed to leave.

 

The longer this is drawn out the better it gets for Ukraine & worse for Putin. It has been reported that Russian conscripts have been captured or given up and the told their captors they had no idea that they were be part of an invasion. This may or may not be true but things are definitely not going to plan for Putin at the moment

[Yenn]

Is Putin putting his best troops into the battle, or is he using them as cannon fodder and keeping the tough ones to attack a weakened Ukraine?

That miles long convoy should have had its head and tail smashed to stop it moving forward.

[willedoo]

I hope Ukraine can hold out long enough for donated arms to start arriving. There's a risk that all the offers of help will come too late. There must be a lot of logistical problems to get the equipment into the country and to the military units where it's needed. It's not clear which bits of airspace are controlled by Russia and which parts by Ukraine.

[willedoo]

Germany has seized billionaire Alisher Usmanov's $600 million dollar yacht. He could lose a lot more as he has two estates in the UK that are reportedly valued at a combined $280 million, as well as luxury homes in Munich, Germany; Lausanne, Switzerland; and Sardinia.

 

 

[Jerry_Atrick]

I am no military tactician by any stretch of the imagination, but Ukraine has far less ultimate conventional firepower than Russia. Russia has shown its hand and so has the west in its resistance to get militarily involved - in BoJo's words to the Ukranian reported, putting a ny fly zone in would necessarily mean shooting down Russian warplanes and he has no appetite for the consequences that will bring. If Russia has brought in the trainees, then it may not pay Ukraine to go too hard initially as they will expend resources and people before the additional supplies arrive to handle the real deal that would be sent in shortly after it.

 

What this had shown is how pi55 weak, corrupt, and betraying the west has become. Our response has been tepid - I wonder if threats of disruption of the oil supply to the US or if the aggressor was an order of magnitude weaker would have resulted in a different response? Russia has shown time and time again it is prepared to use brute force almost entirely mercilessly, but the west have cosied up to them for their short term gain, provided sanctuary to launder their dirty money (as evidenced by being able to seize them with relative ease) and when a country (that the west also utilised) is invaded by them, be basically betray them.

Edited March 3, 2022 by Jerry_Atrick

[nomadpete]

As you suggest, Jerry, this whole episode serves to highlight the duplicity of the wesrern world. Until now, everyone happily lapped up the obviously corrupt millions being spent in the west by the oligarcs. In the end, Western capitalism is no cleaner than communist greed.

I'm sure that the west 'intelligence' was aware of the intense propaganda that Russia spread throught the eastern Ukrane. And everyone dilly dallied when Ukrane tried to become part of EU. Ukrane seems to have been divided since the 1930's but only by a minority in their eastern area.

The 'west' knew about that and that Putin could use it to justify 'demilitarisation' and unifying the area against the will of the majority but nobody did anything about it. 

 

US stayed out because it didn't threaten their oil supply.

 

The only reason there is a fuss now, seems to be that retaliating to Russia will trigger a nuclear war. Also, the problem that Russia have a 'no holds barred' agreement to further their ambitions to teach the world a lesson.

 

Russia and China together is nowadays a unbeatable alliance.

Edited March 3, 2022 by nomadpete

[nomadpete]

PS nobody is posting pics of American owned mega yachts and mansions. Or how they got the money for it.

 

Glass houses,

Stones?

Edited March 3, 2022 by nomadpete

[nomadpete]

If I stir you guys up, you will teach me stuff that I need to know

[willedoo]

25 minutes ago, nomadpete said:

And everyone dilly dallied when Ukrane tried to become part of EU.

I was of the understanding that to gain membership of the EU, a country needs to satisfy certain benchmarks. Ukraine hasn't been able to qualify as they haven't made much inroad into corruption and civil rights and political abuses to name a couple. Corruption at an official level is one thing they have in common with Russia and is the main thing holding them back. I think for the current president, entrenched power was too hard a nut to crack.

 

NATO membership is also out while there's any internal territorial disputes. To come anywhere near qualifying for NATO membership, Ukraine first would have had to settle the Donbass dispute. If they tried a military option, it would mean war with Russia. The only other option was to honour the Minsk agreement and negotiate a peace settlement with the rebels, which hasn't been done. I'm fairly sure you can't join NATO if you have any unresolved civil war in your country. You have to be at a state of peace to join.

[Marty_d]

Bloody hell, Barmy is reading this site, and what's worse, the bugger is quoting me.

 

How embarrassment.

 

On 01/03/2022 at 8:35 PM, Marty_d said:

It's like us invading NZ.

 

https://www.news.com.au/finance/work/leaders/barnaby-joyce-likens-russia-to-australia-in-strange-comment-on-ukraine-conflict/news-story/6c514cff8c1dd7cf7d144c67634d432a

[nomadpete]

I didn't get the feeling that the Ukrane mob were squeaky clean in the corruption department, but can you show me any government that is?

 

Thanks for enlightening me on that NATO requirement to have basic peace in your country prior to acceptance to join the club.

 

It seems to me as an outsider, that might have been the reason for Russia running a strong Nazi propaganda programme in the eastern states of Ukrane.

[kgwilson]

I think the only way to get to a cease fire is for the conflict to be dragged out for months, even years. It will take a long time for sanctions no matter how stringent to have an effect on the Russian people. At present Putin is too strong & while there is some opposition to him within Russian politics it is not enough. If enough pressure can be put on the Military heads for them to realise Putin is a modern day Czar as well as opposition to him becoming a groundswell of population he will be jailed or killed (by accident of course). Dragging it out will also give the West time for the logistics of arms and equipment support and training of Ukrainians to become stronger and bolster their unwavering willingness and determination to defend their country.

 

Putins raising the Nuclear readiness to level 2 is a sign of his weakness not strength. There are 2 more levels to go before the big red button is pushed anyway. 

 

Part of the problem is the Russian population has been fed so much propaganda that the Ukraine is run by Nazis. There are even huge billboards in Donestk and Luhansk proclaiming this as well as Putin claiming it at every opportunity. Tonight on 4 corners a 20 year old Russian who was in the Donbas region for humanitarian work was convinced of this and that Ukraine had killed 14,000 people since 2014. She had absolutely no evidence of this & felt that the invasion was a liberation but was returning to Russia for her own safety. Putin has been spouting this BS for years even though they have most of the photographs and details of these people on public memorials in Kyiv. Later, on Q&A a Russian born Australian said he supported Putins invasion & stated 13,000 people in the region had been killed by Ukranians. This bloke eventually got kicked out of the audience for supporting & advocating violence.

 

Propaganda has been a powerful weapon exploited by every country for centuries but now with Television & social media it seems to have taken a massive turn for the worse. Look at the US and the belief millions of people still have in Trumps claim the election was stolen. It degenerates all the way to Q-Anon & other nut job outfits. I think this will be the hardest thing to overcome because a heck of a lot of Russians want to believe it & they can't accept that the Ukraine is a sovereign state when it was part of the Soviet Union and essentially Russian from 1917 till 1989.

 

 

[onetrack]

The story about the "Ghost of Kyiv" is pure propaganda, and fabricated BS. Think about it. Where are the crack Ukrainian fighter pilots that have been put through their paces against other crack fighter pilots? There are none. The Ukrainian Air Force is a shadow of a proper Air Force. This is a country where the annual average income is US$3700 - on a par with the Phillippines or Libya. This despite the Ukraines fertile soils, huge grain crops and mineral wealth.

Then to say this bloke shot down no less than 6 of the best fighter aircraft that Russia possesses in 1 day, is simply pure fantasy. Remember, this isn't WW2, where you sneaked up on your (relatively slow piston-driven) enemy pilot, who was distracted or switched off, and you gave him a burst of ammo at relatively short range (because there was no way of hitting him at long range in WW2).

Todays fighter aircraft can pick up enemy aircraft from 300kms away. They lock onto the enemy aircraft, and the missiles or rockets they carry are computer and laser guided to their target.

"BLAM", the enemy pilot never ever saw the rocket or missile coming, and he has little chance of avoiding it, because the rockets and missiles are travelling at twice or three times the speed he's doing, and they're locked onto his exhaust heat signature. 

Then there's the standard military strategy that every General and every dictator/warmonger knows off by heart. Control the Air, and you control the War. Russia has declared the Ukraine a no-fly zone. If the Ghost of Kyiv had even been able to get airborne (presuming he can actually find a Ukraine military aerodrome that is still functional and not surrounded by Russian troops), he'd have been downed within 2 minutes of getting into the air, such would be the total Russian control of Ukrainian airspace.

No, it's a sad case that the Ukrainian Air Force is simply a No-Show in this invasion, because if they really were a full-blown Air Force, up to combat speed, and in action, a heap of Russian tanks and artillery pieces would now be just fragments.

[nomadpete]

8 hours ago, kgwilson said:

This bloke eventually got kicked out of the audience for supporting & advocating violence.

But.... That person was voicing his belief based upon what he has heard. Is that audience behaviour simply a proof that our propaganda (as is his) is controlling  us?

 

It is indeed a war of propaganda.

Edited March 3, 2022 by nomadpete

[octave]

Well I certainly hope this turns out to be false.    

 

Russia-Ukraine war live updates: Europe's largest nuclear power plant on fire, mayor says amid Russian attack

[facthunter]

Be TOTAL stupidity to endanger a nuclear power site. Nev