Sanctions against Russia

[Jerry_Atrick]

I would not be surprised if his security envoy is independent from the military for that very reason, otherwise, I would have thouight it would have happened long ago. Let's hope the person who actually launches the nukes has a calm head and refuses...

 

Although we are about as far away from Russia and Ukraine in Europe as one can be, I am watching the developments very closely.

[willedoo]

52 minutes ago, onetrack said:

I'm just waiting for the Ukrainian HIMAR missile to land on Putins office, or his travelling convoy, that will immediately solve a lot of problems.

You can bet your bottom dollar the Americans have all the information they need, to hand over the target co-ordinates to the Ukrainians - right down to the number plate on his limo.

It could be a long wait, the HIMARS doesn't have that range. The longest range round the Ukrainians have for it is 80klm range.. Even if the Americans gave them the ATACMS, they would still have to launch from 200klm inside the Russian border. The real Russian border that is, not the imaginary one Putler thinks he's created. Maybe some undercover special forces could get him.

[willedoo]

43 minutes ago, Old Koreelah said:

Why make Putin a Martyr when it’s very likely his own generals will soon take him out?

They don't seem to be capable of doing much more than tying their shoelaces. I think Jerry is right about the security being independent of the military.

 

 

[red750]

From NEWS.COM.AU

 

Vladimir Putin’s heath is “dramatically deteriorating” and his secret conditions have impacted his judgment over Ukraine, it is claimed.

 

Political analyst Valery Solovey – whose earlier claims about the Kremlin leader’s poor health were denied – alleges that Mr Putin’s secret medical conditions have impacted on his judgment on the war, The Sun reports.

 

The desperate tyrant is due to announce the illegal annexation of four Ukrainian regions on Friday in defiance of strong opposition from world leaders.

 

His move is seen as a way of escalating the war and is expected to trigger new wave of Western sanctions.

[facthunter]

There are a lot of Russians going to Kazakstan and the people there are worried Putin will try the same stunt there. Nev

[onetrack]

I have my reservations about the shoelace tying ability of the Russian military leadership. I think too many purges have relieved the Russian military of any capable leadership.

[Jerry_Atrick]

There may well be some truth in the assertion of Putin's health... But ther are so many theories (some conspiracy), that allthough I wouldn't be surprised if there was an issue, is it really that bad. that his judgement is that impaired? I think it stems from the type of person he is, more than an illness.

Edited September 30, 2022 by Jerry_Atrick

[facthunter]

He's the sort of person who kills people without remorse. KGB trained and proud of it.   Nev

[onetrack]

The article below is from May this year, and things have deteriorated for Russia, since then - but the article gives a good insight into how Putin lives in his own world of fantasy, that is fed by his favoured underlings - who are not only feeding on their own lies and BS, they are fearful of telling the truth anyway, because it will mean the end of the promotions and the good jobs for them.

 

https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/how-putin-decided-go-war

[Old Koreelah]

At least twice during the Cold War, a soviet officer risked all to save the world from Armageddon; their respect for humanity saw them refusing to follow orders to launch. 

 

The brutal soviet regime produced these decent men; will Putin’s kleptocracy do likewise?

 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasily_Arkhipov

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov

 

[willedoo]

Putin is really showing desperation now. The mobilisation was an admission that Russia is failing in the war, and when that didn't go down too well at home, he's played the last hand he had - annex the four Ukrainian provinces and back it with a nuclear threat. He would be hoping that will turn around dwindling public support while he tries to sell it as fighting the good fight to preserve Russia's boundaries.

 

The West has two choices. One is to back down and let him have what he wants out of fear of nuclear confrontation. This is exactly what Putin is hoping for and is his last shot in the locker. The second option is to ignore the cross-eyed little twerp and keep assisting Ukraine to achieve a total defeat of Russian forces in occupied Ukraine. I don't see option one as any solution as it's rewarding bad behaviour and will only encourage more. The only chance for any de-escalation is the deceasement of Putin.

 

He must be one of the only world dictators who has annexed land that his forces are actively retreating from. The important town of Lyman is the next to fall, with the Russian forces there practically surrounded and their only escape route covered by Ukrainian artillery. In the next couple of weeks, Ukrainian forces will probably start to push back into Luhansk province once Lyman is back under control. I think the front lines are deceptive. Looking at day to day maps, it's easy to think that Ukraine is not advancing much, but I think the real story is that any lines that Russia are holding are coming at enormous cost. The toll on Russian men and equipment is staggering and Ukraine is grinding them down.

 

It's time for Biden to give Ukraine the ATACMS so they can finish the job. If Putin now considers the occupied provinces as Russian soil, it negates the logic of withholding the 300klm range ATACMS. If the front line is now considered Russia by Putin, then all existing Ukrainian weapons are capable of hitting it. Withholding the ATACMS after the sham annexation is just stupidity.

 

 

[willedoo]

Putin's referendums in the occupied territories have inspired me to hold a poll of my own:-

 

On the question of who blew up the Russian Nord Stream gas pipelines, which country do you think was most likely responsible?

a)  Russia

b)  Russia

c)  Russia

 

[kgwilson]

Option c, but it could also have been either b or a. 

[nomadpete]

But really, will we plebs ever know who did it?

 

Will EU manage to prevent mass frozen voters when/if they stop using Russia energy?

[pmccarthy]

A timer on a bomb in a pipeline pig is the easy way to have done it.

[kgwilson]

Putins latest speech has got him digging the hole even deeper and the last possible exit is all but closed now. Like all dictators he has taken the bait and is now trapped. He is now apparently giving direct orders to his military commanders and personally rejecting requests from those in the Kherson area for strategic retreat.

 

Ukraine has surrounded the city of Lyman & cut off up to 8000 Russians in the last day or so. They seem to be slowly working towards retaking Sievierodonetsk and cutting more Russian supply lines. While Russia appears to have good defensive lines around Kherson their supply lines rely on only a couple of damaged bridges so if Ukraine was to mount a major offensive here (unlikely as they don't have the numbers) then about 30,000 Russians may be caught out.  

 

Putin is now as irrational as Hitler was when he ordered his Generals on the Eastern front beginning with Stalingrad to wage losing battles when they should have withdrawn. 

[Old Koreelah]

13 hours ago, willedoo said:

He must be one of the only world dictators who has annexed land that his forces are actively retreating from.

Gold!

[Bruce Tuncks]

I hope you are right old K about putin underlings refusing to fire the nukes. But I think that the probable result of their own deaths within hours might just help as well as their humanity feelings.

[red750]

Has anyone noticed the similarity between Putin and Trump? A deranged lunatic surrounded by sycophants, by the look of that statement address.

[Yenn]

Putin and Trump are both dangerous. Putin more so because he is getting cornered. What is needed is for the UN or USA to state that any use of nuclear weapons against Ukraine will be matched by the West. It will not affect Putin, but it may make the Russian Generals think.

I don't think USA will do that as Joe is too scared of the Republicans to stand up and be counted.

[willedoo]

The latest ISW report made an interesting point. There has been speculation for a while now that Putin is very cross with his top military commanders and has been trying to micromanage operations himself. Much like Hitler did, which was a failure. On the Russian side, there's a lot of criticism of the fact that the areas in the north east recently lost to the Ukrainians hadn't been properly reinforced and equipped.

 

The opinion of the ISW is that the decision not to reinforce was almost certainly Putin's as he places more importance on holding the south than on holding Luhansk and northern Donetsk. He doesn't have enough men and equipment to securely hold the entire front line, so has to choose between what to lose and what to hold. It makes sense that he would value holding the south. It denies Ukraine most of it's Black Sea access and provides water, electricity and a secure buffer zone for Crimea. Also, if the West were to eventually chicken out and go for appeasement, the southern occupied territories would provide a future springboard for Putin to advance further east to the Transnistria border. 

 

He's now trying to reinforce the line with thousands of unfit, drunken, untrained and inexperienced conscripts. I can't see that ending well for them.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Putin obviosuly has a problem.. How to get the younger, fitter cannon fodder to the front lines. Outside of a war, he cannot "legally" send the conscripts to another country (the first wave apparently were duped to sign contracts as soldiers - given the exodus of fighting age men from Russia, that may not work a second time). Also, to put a ban of men of fighting age leaving the country  after his mobilisation of reserves (which includes more than reserves outside the major cities according to intecepted phone calls I watch on YooToob), would be an admission the Special Military Operation is not quite going to plan. The additional laws put in to punish avoiders is already a tacit admission.

 

So, the annexation of parts of Ukraine, to me, are not designed to keep the west out with the threat of nuclear war. Nope. In fact, I think Putin is somewhat of a coward and fears for his family in such a situation.. It is designed so that when Ukraine enter these annexed areas (and even the Crimea), he can claim to his people that there is an invasion of sovereign Russian land, and therefore, the only alternaitve is war. He can then declare war  on Ukraine in retaliation of them invading sovereign Russian land, which will legitimise conscription on a wider scale, and sending them to another country.

 

Quite frankly, I think the west shoudl start to call his bluff.. Because, if he isn't kidding, it will probably happen anyway.

Edited October 2, 2022 by Jerry_Atrick

[Old Koreelah]

3 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

(annexing) is designed so that when Ukraine enter these annexed areas (and even the Crimea), he can claim to his people that there is an invasion of sovereign Russian land, and therefore, the only alternaitve is war. He can then declare war  on Ukraine in retaliation of them invading sovereign Russian land, which will legitimise conscription on a wider scale, and sending them to another country..

Strikes me as very similar to Australia in WWII, when we had a critical need for troops to defend our north. Curtin was legally forbidden from sending conscripts overseas, but PNG was considered Australian territory.

[Bruce Tuncks]

I think the north of australia didn't actually need defending at all, but I agree that most people at the time thought so.

There were two big naval battles, Midway and Coral Sea, after which the Japanese were no longer an invasion threat. After the second of these battles, Japanese ships were hunted down all over the Pacific.

Kokoda comes to mind as a triumph for our troops, but as unnecessary strategically. If we were intent on occupying , say singapore, would we offload troops at port moresby and collect the survivors much later at Lai ? This is not to belittle our troops and the way they fought. 

The americans come out as being the only side in ww2 that cared for the lives of its own troops. They didn't indulge in stupid actions like Kokoda.

[onetrack]

Wars are full of stupid actions, generally caused by a lack of decent intelligence about the region or the enemy - and often made worse by dreadful military leadership.

PNG in 1942 was unable to provide any worthwhile intelligence on either Japanese troop movements or numbers, and the level of mapping in PNG was abysmal.

So the Australians were operating blind in PNG in early 1942, all made worse by a dreadful lack of communications. 

 

But the Americans most certainly carried out many stupid actions during WW2. Study up on the Battle of Huertgen Forest, one of the most idiotic battles the Americans ever fought.

It cost the Americans 34,000 lives, all because one U.S. military leader decided the U.S. forces had to go through the Huertgen Forest to attack the Germans - when there was no need to advance through the forest, they could have easily bypassed it, because the Americans were on top of the recent actions, and the Germans were on the run.

 

https://usacac.army.mil/sites/default/files/documents/cace/DCL/DCL_MGCota.pdf