Sanctions against Russia

[kgwilson]

In Western movies a cowboy (the star) can hit a man between the eyes riding a horse flat out at 300 metres with a Colt 45. The Russians need to send their best troops to Hollywood & then redeploy them to the Ukraine front line with Colt 45s. The Ukrainians would all die from laughing too hard.😁

[pmccarthy]

Video of rifles fired from trenches shows the barrels are often pointed upward at about twenty degrees. So they are not even giving suppressing fire, except in the audio sense.

Edited October 14, 2022 by pmccarthy

[Old Koreelah]

Long ago a researcher (American, from memory) discovered most troops never aimed at their opposite number; it takes quite a a bit of motivation and training to overcome human decency.

[facthunter]

Or witness a massacre done by the other side. Nev

[onetrack]

The latest news from Putlers bunker is interesting. Putler has declared that they don't need to keep bombing the crap out of Ukraine, because they've achieved their objective.

He's also declared that he doesn't need to mobilise any more troops, the current mobilisation, stalled at 222,000 troops, out of the 300,000 originally-stated objective - he says, is also quite adequate.

 

In the wondrous world of a malevolent dictator who specialises in breathtaking deviousness, one has to try and make sense of what these declarations/decisions, actually mean.

One has to surmise that the reduction in the level of attacking Ukraine, is simply due to one or more of the following factors;

 

1. The Russian military has exhausted its supplies of weaponry and ammunition, to the point where supplies of both, are starting to become extremely tight.

2. There simply isn't enough Russian troops to carry out military objectives. Reports are, that total Russian Army desertions have reached 170,000 troops.

3. Putler is becoming concerned the murmurs of resentment and discord, both amongst his own inner circle of supporters, and amongst the general Russian population, are becoming overly loud - enough to make him worry about outright revolt, if he tries to keep up the level of attack on Ukraine.

 

In amongst that news, is the news that his favourite General, General Shoigu, has no military training whatsoever - and there is almost open revolt amongst the professionally-trained, high-ranking military officers under his control, simply because they reckon he's an idiot, who has no idea about how to run a large military operation - and political objectives feature more pointedly in his decision-making, rather than dedicated military objectives.

 

I reckon the knives will be flashing in large numbers over the coming weeks, with many Russian "senior operatives" finding themselves on the outer of Putlers inner circle - but the changes will probably be little more than re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-15/putin-says-no-need-for-massive-new-strikes-on-ukraine/101539486

 

In other news, the only advance made by Russian troops, was a small advance in the Donetsk region, in the town of Bakhmut, led by the Wagner Group mercenaries.

However, Ukraine scored big again with another very successful hit on another Russian ammo/explosives stockpile in Belgorod, eliminating another source of ammo supply for the Russian Army.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63261600

 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-strikes-back-multiple-explosions-rock-russian-border-towns

 

 

[kgwilson]

You would think he would learn from history. Stalin did the same when he purged the military and installed political hacks with no knowledge or experience of such things and it took 2-3 years to find some military chiefs by which time they'd lost several million people. At that time it was the full Soviet Union & they had overwhelming weight of numbers and their armaments factories were well beyond the German reach. Not so this time & they are running out of equipment, ammunition and willing canon fodder.

[onetrack]

The Ukrainians officially authorised cash payments earlier in the year, to Russian soldiers who surrender - and who bring with them, Russian military equipment in good working order.

 

I'm not sure how that worked, up to now - but since the major mobilisation order by Putin last month, the Ukraine has established a hotline for Russians who not only want to surrender, but who want to avoid the draft as well. Apparently, that hotline has been inundated.

 

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-zelenskiy-russians-surrender-dodge-draft/32051023.html

 

https://visitukraine.today/blog/928/how-not-to-join-the-russian-army-or-surrender-step-by-step-instructions-for-the-occupiers

 

Then there's the gripes of those Russians mobilised, asking what will happen to their loans, mortgages, families, etc. It seems like they have had no worthwhile answers to their questions, and the Russian military has put little planning in place to accommodate the conscripts gripes.

 

 

Edited October 15, 2022 by onetrack

[willedoo]

onetrack, here's my two bob's worth on a couple of points or three:

 

6 hours ago, onetrack said:

1. The Russian military has exhausted its supplies of weaponry and ammunition, to the point where supplies of both, are starting to become extremely tight.

2. There simply isn't enough Russian troops to carry out military objectives. Reports are, that total Russian Army desertions have reached 170,000 troops.

3. Putler is becoming concerned the murmurs of resentment and discord, both amongst his own inner circle of supporters, and amongst the general Russian population, are becoming overly loud - enough to make him worry about outright revolt, if he tries to keep up the level of attack on Ukraine.

Points one and two, for sure. In general, weapons and ammunition are getting low. Some estimates put their total missile stock at 50% depleted, some categories two thirds gone. Not enough troops and the longer they go on, the more the quality and ability of the troops gets worse. Bearing in mind the standard wasn't high when they started.

 

Point three, Putler is stuck between a rock and a hard place. There would be some elements that want him to stop, but I think his biggest worry is the hardliners. Most of the talking heads on Russian media these days are the far right. Their major grumble is that Putin and Co. haven't done enough, haven't gone hard enough and should have declared war with full mobilisation long ago. They are baying for blood and want to see Ukraine totally subjugated, preferably ethnic Ukrainians liquidated, and they are really p*ssed off that the government and military have been carrying out a half hearted conflict that has only squandered men and equipment. There's a lot of opinion that Mondays blitz was to placate the hard right who were criticising the government after the Crimean bridge attack and have been demanding a response.

 

It's the most probable scenario and Putler is worried enough by the hard right's influence, that he was prepared to waste hundreds of missiles out of a critically short stockpile. He's desperate to cling to power. Initially, he was desperate for a victory; now he's desperate to save his job and his neck. From now on, I think more and more of his decisions will be based on his attempt to survive and maintain power.

 

6 hours ago, onetrack said:

In amongst that news, is the news that his favourite General, General Shoigu, has no military training whatsoever

Shoigu is a career politician, mostly in emergency services. He was emergency services minister before moving to defence. Pollies get a uniform in Russia. As emergency services minister, he had a military style uniform. Putler must have thought he looked so good in it that he would make Shoigu a big general running the army. Shoigu should have stuck to firefighting because he sure won't put out this one in Ukraine.

 

6 hours ago, onetrack said:

In other news, the only advance made by Russian troops, was a small advance in the Donetsk region, in the town of Bakhmut, led by the Wagner Group mercenaries.

Bakhmut has been one big Wagner disposal unit. Thanks to the Bakhmut defenders, Wagners barely exist now. Nearly every day they've been throwing themselves at the Ukrainian positions and getting beaten back. And for how long? It must be a couple of months now, the orcs have been trying to take Bakhmut and suffering significant losses. It's a strategic town, but it shows the stubborn mentality of the Russians. The Bakhmut defenders have done it hard and are true heroes. Their bravery and resilience has tied up a lot of Russians for a long time and has given the other fronts the breathing space to succeed.

 

6 hours ago, onetrack said:

I reckon the knives will be flashing in large numbers over the coming weeks, with many Russian "senior operatives" finding themselves on the outer of Putlers inner circle - but the changes will probably be little more than re-arranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.

Well said.

[willedoo]

22 hours ago, kgwilson said:

In Western movies a cowboy (the star) can hit a man between the eyes riding a horse flat out at 300 metres with a Colt 45. The Russians need to send their best troops to Hollywood & then redeploy them to the Ukraine front line with Colt 45s. The Ukrainians would all die from laughing too hard.😁

They need those Hollywood six-guns that keep on firing without ever having to reload. They should call them forty seven-guns, or fifty nine-guns. I don't think I've ever seen them shoot six and reload.

[willedoo]

20 hours ago, pmccarthy said:

Video of rifles fired from trenches shows the barrels are often pointed upward at about twenty degrees. So they are not even giving suppressing fire, except in the audio sense.

Poor man's Howitzer. Sometimes it's the only chance of a round reaching their positions. Some would be just making noise and some would be doing it on purpose. If you take the range of an AK, depending on distance, a flatter trajectory will ground out while a lobbed shot is still traveling overhead. The flatter trajectory won't run out of puff before the lobbed shot, but it can drop enough to strike the ground while the lobbed shot is still going.

[red750]

I see Putin has moved nuclear bombers to the front line.

[willedoo]

I was talking to a mate recently who owns a Ural motorcycle and sidecar and asked him what will happen to sales and parts now with the sanctions. I don't know whether it's true or not, but he said Ural transferred to Kazakhstan so they could still supply the international market. He said Putler wasn't real happy with them.

[red750]

Russian government officials are reportedly quitting in droves after a colleague who was conscripted as part of President Vladimir Putin's mobilization decree died in Ukraine.

 

Russian journalist Roman Super, citing Kremlin sources, said on his Telegram channel that Moscow government employees are handing in their notices following the killing of Aleksey Martynov, the head of a department within the Moscow city government.

[willedoo]

You couldn't make stuff like this up. An internationally bound Russian plane had to disembark all their passengers because the co-pilot had been handed mobilisation papers and wasn't allowed to leave the country.

[red750]

How much longer before someone takes the nutcase out?

[onetrack]

This is a worthy news site (link at bottom), producing the real story of the shambles inside Putlers Russia. The first link is the news article about the untrained conscripts dying at the front.

 

https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/14/the-head-of-a-moscow-government-department-died-at-the-front-he-had-no-combat-experience

 

https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/10/07/people-are-scared-shitless-around-him-but-it-s-fear-without-respect

 

 

[facthunter]

Those that live by the SWORD should die by it. He's pretty good at seeing/having people killed . No one would grieve.  Nev

[red750]

Russia: 11 shot dead by two volunteer soldiers in attack at military firing range, defence ministry says.

 

Read more

[willedoo]

On 16/10/2022 at 10:48 AM, red750 said:

Russia: 11 shot dead by two volunteer soldiers in attack at military firing range, defence ministry says.

 

Read more

They're saying that one of those killed was Lt.Colonel Denis Lapin, son of Army Group Centre's commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin. Lt.Colonel Lapin was in the news six months ago, being awarded a medal by his dad.

 

The story at this stage is that three Tajiks first shot Lapin, then opened fire on the others. The Russians later shot two of them, the third was wounded and is still on the run. It's alleged that Lapin called Allah a coward, so the Tajics shot him. A dumb thing to say when so many volunteers are Moslems.

[willedoo]

Kids are back playing in the military infrastructure target playground in Kiev, the one where Putler carried out a precision strike on a swing that was threatening Russia.

 

Edited October 17, 2022 by willedoo

[facthunter]

Can't have swings in Putler's politics. Nev

[willedoo]

12 minutes ago, facthunter said:

Can't have swings in Putler's politics. Nev

Children's swings are Nazi nonsense. If he doesn't nip it in the bud, Russians will start demanding swings. His worst nightmare is slippery slides. Come to think of it, I think he's on one.

[Old Koreelah]

5 minutes ago, willedoo said:

Children's swings are Nazi nonsense. If he doesn't nip it in the bud, Russians will start demanding swings. His worst nightmare is slippery slides. Come to think of it, I think he's on one.

That reminds me of a terrible story told by one of my hometown’s returning soldiers. After escaping a German POW camp in Silesia, he joined Czech partisans, spending a winter avoiding both the Red Army and the Germans. 

On one occasion they watched as Soviet tanks paused at a playground. The tank crews sat and watched the German-speaking children playing for half an hour, then machine-gunned the lot of them before moving on.

[willedoo]

How the mighty have fallen, from a believed to be second best army in the world to second best in Ukraine, and that's only because there isn't a third one there. Some analysts are saying that Russia has expended two thirds of it's precision strike missiles. Monday's country wide missile and drone attack put a big hole in their already low stocks.

 

It does make you wonder whether there's a lot more to things than what meets the eye. Some analysis believes that the Crimean bridge was hit with the ATACMS. Supporting that theory is the lack of scorch marks under the bridge, satellite imagery of blast scorching on the top road surface, and a downward depression of the other two lane span at the section closest to the downed span. The photo taken from below the downed span shows part of a gaping hole in the span. When they lift the span out of the water, any available images of the impact point might shed more light on it.

 

So far, the U.S. has been hesitant to supply ATACMS for fear of an escalation. They argue that the Ukrainians could use the 300klm range ATACMS to strike Russia and give Putler the excuse to escalate with possible tactical nuclear weapon use. There is some belief that the U.S. has supplied them on the quiet without acknowledging it. If so, they would be strictly controlling the use of them, no doubt.

 

Without getting too much into conspiracy theories, this might not be as silly as it sounds: The U.S. supplies ATACMS and authorises and coordinates the bridge strike, then waits for Putin's response. Putin predictably unleashes a nation wide barrage of missiles on Ukraine. Zelensky has long called for the skies to be closed, so this barrage clears any political obstacles to supplying Ukraine with much more air defence capability. As a bonus, Russia's missile stocks are depleted further. This enables future select use of the ATACMS for high value or important tactical targets. If true to form, Putin will then unleash more missiles as a response, most of which will not reach targets because of the increased air defence as a result of the previous barrage.

 

That would be a win/win for Ukraine, getting rid of more Russian missile stocks with minimal damage to Ukrainian life and infrastructure. Depending on whether the U.S. decided it was time to start getting the job done properly, they could point to Putin as the one escalating and then supply ATACMS officially.

 

They say Putin is increasingly isolated and insular, only listening to advice from a small circle. He also is known for not having much to do with the internet, so he might not know that he and his military are the laughing stock of the world. Their munition supply is so depleted that they are importing drones and missiles from Iran, which will be a finite source. Iran will only be able to supply what they can without compromising their own defence capabilities. The missiles that Russia begged from Iran are very ordinary Iranian knock-offs of the old Soviet Luna-M short range missile. They won't be any game changer.

Edited October 17, 2022 by willedoo

[onetrack]

I'm just waiting for the Ukrainians to bomb the crap out of one or two Russian oil refineries. A good hit there would be a crippling blow, not only to Russia's military efforts, but a major blow to their oil income, which is financing their war .... sorry, "special military operation".