Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

To add to their woes, hackers affiliated with Russian opposition partisan group, the National Republic Army, have reportedly hacked 1.2 terabytes of critical security data from nearly a dozen companies providing national security and defense contracting services for Russia. Today they released the data to the public. It's being said that it's one of the biggest IT-security breaches in Russian history and could have a big impact on national security.

[willedoo]

Russia's new overall commander of forces in Ukraine, General Sergey Surovikin:

 

[facthunter]

Imitating HITLER more every day. Believing your own bull$#1t is fatal. Surrounding yourself by YES men also. Nev

[willedoo]

Putin can't defeat Ukraine on the battlefield, so he does what he does best - attacks civilians. It's looking like their present strategy is freeze the Ukrainians over winter by knocking out their energy grid. A post on Twitter said the Ukrainians are joking that if Putin leaves them with no electricity it will backfire on him, as in nine months time there will be more Ukrainians. A fair point; we all know how people spend their time during blackouts.

[onetrack]

What about Putins declaration of Martial Law in the 4 regions he's annexed? Martial law is the substitution of a civil government by military authorities, with unlimited powers to suspend the ordinary legal protections of civilian rights and civilian laws.

In other words, Putin doesn't want any blowback on his troops disgusting behaviour in Ukraine, because the Russian military will simply be setting all the rules.

 

The only problem I see with this, that Putin obviously fails to see, is that you can't declare Martial Law in areas you don't control - and it's entirely likely he will not be able to control those areas, anytime in the near future, either.

[willedoo]

The front lines aren't moving much at the moment. I suspect the wet weather is having a big bearing on that as they are fighting in sticky black mud in a lot of places. I saw one video of Ukrainian artillery crew working in the mud. They'd made a long duckboard out of empty shell cases leading up to the breech.

 

Russian mercenary group Wagners have been digging a WW2 style Siegfried Line trench system in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, extending all the way over to the Russian border. Taking into account the location of the trenches, it doesn't look like the Russians have any confidence of holding the northern half of Luhansk Oblast. Ukraine is fighting a 21st. century war and Russia a 20th. century war. My money is on Ukraine.

 

The Russians lay out a double line of tank barriers, which are pyramid shaped objects, probably concrete. Back from that, they've had a trenching machine dig a trench, throwing the dirt on their side. It seems a lot of work, possibly for nothing. The Russians don't have enough manpower to hold the lines. Ukraine could suppress the enemy with drone controlled artillery while the engineers breach the defences, then it's all over. A tracked engineer's machine with a dozer blade would make short work of the tank obstacles and trench. All they have to do is get to the other side of the trench, and all the dirt is mounded up ready to fill in trench crossings. They could doze a slot down to get their machine across the trench, then swing around and doze all the excavated dirt back in the trench to get crossing points for the rest of the vehicles.

 

The trenchers they are using are an old type.

 

[willedoo]

3 minutes ago, onetrack said:

What about Putins declaration of Martial Law in the 4 regions he's annexed? Martial law is the substitution of a civil government by military authorities, with unlimited powers to suspend the ordinary legal protections of civilian rights and civilian laws.

In other words, Putin doesn't want any blowback on his troops disgusting behaviour in Ukraine, because the Russian military will simply be setting all the rules.

 

The only problem I see with this, that Putin obviously fails to see, is that you can't declare Martial Law in areas you don't control - and it's entirely likely he will not be able to control those areas, anytime in the near future, either.

The people in the recently occupied areas might not see any difference in the way they are treated under martial law. It seems to have been that without being called so. One difference, under martial law, they can conscript Ukrainians and try to force them to fight their own people.

[Old Koreelah]

3 hours ago, willedoo said:

The trenchers they are using are an old type.

 

Sure looks to be derived from the hundreds of thousands of Studebakers the Soviets received from Canada and the US…

[nomadpete]

Not the nine o'clock news......

 

 

[onetrack]

The trencher is a BTM-3 model. Interesting bit of gear, it looks like the Russians picked up on the Buckeye trencher design, and added it to a T-54 tank basic structure. 

The cabin is a ZIS or ZIL military truck cabin, substantially widened.

 

The rotating trencher wheel idea is sound, but the tank structure is not designed for "industrial-type" work, as construction equipment is designed to operate in.

The track gear is too light, and the gearing is generally too fast - although I guess they would have geared the tank drivetrain down. 

 

At the end of the day, the bucket-wheel trencher is only useful in the right soil conditions - firm clay to sandy clay, with no rock. So if you want trenches in rocky ground, forget it.

There's also the fact that these things are a nightmare of rotating, moving, spinning, and wearing components - shafts, gearboxes, teeth, bearings and bushings.

They need a lot of maintenance, so the Russians had better be right up there with the maintenance crew levels. But I'll wager some Russian general hasn't organised the repair crews or parts supply yet.

 

http://www.military-today.com/engineering/btm_3.htm#:~:text=The BTM-3 is a,motorized and mechanized infantry units. 

[pmccarthy]

Russia 'plans false flag attack on hydroelectric dam to FLOOD Kherson' in latest attack on energy plants as Ukraine brings in four-hour blackouts to tackle electricity shortages

General Sergei Surovikin, Putin's new commander in Ukraine, has been warning that Kyiv's troops are plotting to attack a dam at Nova Kakhovka

Analysts concluded this is likely preparation for a Russian 'false flag' attack

Blowing the dam and flooding Kherson would cover Russian troops' retreat and provide a distraction from Moscow's latest battlefield humiliation, they said

It would further damage Ukraine's power grid, with blackouts set to begin today

[onetrack]

Time for Ukraines troops to be on high alert at all Ukrainian infrastructure points, and to increase their level of protection and patrolling at those points.

Infrastructure protection has to have absolute priority and maximum protection during war.

[willedoo]

It will be interesting to see what happens with the dam. If they blow it, the timing would depend on how many Russian troops they are prepared to leave stranded on the west bank. There are varying estimates of numbers west of the Dnieper River, but most are between 15,000 to 20,000 troops. Either way, some will be captured if the west bank falls to Ukraine. The only crossing points are a pontoon bridge at Kherson which is within HIMARS range, and ferries operating just south of the dam wall. It looks like the bridge crossing at the dam wall might be out of action again.

 

If the Russians blow it, it would impact water supply to Crimea and increase troops lost on the west bank, but Putin wouldn't be too worried about that. Putin's new overall commander, General Sergei Surovikin, is an air force general supposedly loyal to Putin. It's known that there's no love lost between Putin and the army. There's not much scope for Russian advances on the ground, so Surovikin will probably just keep bombing infrastructure. 

[willedoo]

This is one of the former Russian prisoners now fighting with mercenary group Wagners. Some of them have a bit of age, but they figure it's a better life than dying in prison. They are given a pardon if they fight, so if they survive Ukraine, they can go home a free man. Whether true or not, there's been reports of some ex prisoners doing a runner back to Russia. This bloke has just been given the 'For Courage' medal and is sporting an AK-12 with extended 45 round magazine. Wagners troops seem to be well equipped, and it's said they are the only Russian troops making any advances on the ground at present.

 

 

[willedoo]

This is an interesting article written by an ex CIA intelligence officer. It mainly deals with Putin's thinking and logic, and whether he would use tactical nukes, and America's likely response if he did.

 

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addressing-putins-nuclear-threat-thinking-like-the-cold-war-kgb-officer-that-he-was/

[willedoo]

Another one of General Surovikin:

 

[willedoo]

Putler seems hell bent on turning Russia into a larger version of North Korea. He's signed a decree to abolish the Federal Tourism Agency. He's obviously not expecting any visitors to the country anytime soon.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Russia isn't at the top of my list to spend a holiday - unless I guess I want to be mobilised... Don't Panic Mr. Mannering.. Don't panic!

[onetrack]

The reports are that tourism numbers into Russia are down by more than 95%. Hardly any flights, no credit cards work there any more, no electronic visas, pandemic restrictions, and general discouragement by other nations towards visiting Russia, means tourists would have to be really dedicated to try and get into the place.

And I'd imagine you'd get treated with great suspicion and followed everywhere, if you did rock up, as the Russians are probably getting paranoiac about strangers wandering around in their midst, right about now.

[willedoo]

Even if the war stopped now, the damage is already done to their economy and international reputation, and will be like that for a long time to come. Putin has wrecked his own country. He thinks he can isolate from the western world and economically survive with links to China, India, the Middle East, Africa and the CIS states. Maybe he can to a degree, but he's sentencing a lot of Russians to an isolated future.

 

The countries that will continue to deal with Russia do so out of self interest, and not some form of loyalty or envisaged common future. They get energy and trade with Russia, and can buy cheap arms, no questions asked and no U.S. style lectures on human and civil rights. Putin has made it quite clear that if you have the money, Russia will sell you almost anything.

 

But what happens as Russia goes further down the gurgler? I recon as some of those countries gradually run out of reasons to be an ally of Russia, they will drop off one by one. I can see Putler having less friends going forward, not more. Surely their big arms export industry will shrink. The way his military has performed in Ukraine is not exactly what you would call good advertising for Russian arms sales.

[facthunter]

Russia is weakened and everyone knows it now. The world also knows Putins word is worth NOTHING that he is a murdering ruthless thug and has amassed a lot of money for himself.   nev

[nomadpete]

Willie, the same observation applies to those countries that buy arms from US, France, UK, etc. All arms purchase are absent of ethics, morally. And no arms purchase assumes any national loyalty to the supplier.

 

Certainly Russia's poor military performance has suddenly tarnished the perceived quality of their armament products on sale to others. But that only impacts Russia's income stream. Putin doesn't care about that, his own wealth is still astronomical, he separates his power structure from the national economy.

 

Putin cares not for other countries judgements, I believe he only cares about his own immediate power

[willedoo]

Russian mobilisation:

 

https://twitter.com/s_mihailovich/status/1583488465861083137

[kgwilson]

I note that Yevgeny Prigozhin who came to the fore as Putins Chef has now admitted he is the head behind the Wagner Group & still in Putins inner circle though has begun to join the ranks of those critcising the Armed forces.

 

One of Putins most ardent critics Mikhail Khordorkovsky is upfront about the bloke, who before becoming wealthy spent a number of years in jail, got into the restaurant game and then started meddling in US politics to get Trump elected in 2016.

 

"Prigozhin is under the control of Putin today," he said.

"But he's also getting ready for life after Putin."

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-23/yevgeny-prigozhin-the-rise-of-vladimir-putins-so-called-chef/101555386

[onetrack]

This the reason the Russians don't stand a chance, long term. They have little to counter this level of NATO intelligence that's instantly available to the Ukrainians.

 

Premium grade electronic intelligence from 20,000 feet - run by a consortium of nations. If Putin launches a nuke, it will be known about in seconds.