Sanctions against Russia

[willedoo]

It's a BPM-97 apparently, with windscreens. The driver might not have been able to see very well with that mob on the bonnet.

 

[willedoo]

This is a short clip of 10x Ukrainian M113 APC's on the move. The Ukrainians must be really liking all the foreign gear they are receiving. I knew they had GM engines so looked it up and they are 6V53T motors. Bird scarers.

 

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1586425991194632192

[onetrack]

Yep, they're a top old rig, and it's amazing that they're still going, so long after they were first produced (1962). The 6V53T is the screamingest of all the screaming GM (Detroit) diesels.

The ones we had in SVN weren't turboed, I think they were 240HP back then. They run a 4 speed Allison automatic. The newer ones are turbocharged, and are 275HP.

The Cav lads used to race them to see who had the fastest one. They're supposed to peak out at 66kmh, but we regularly saw over 70kmh out of them.

 

The noise inside the hull at 70kmh is pretty deafening. The beauty of them is they're light enough to not get bogged too badly. They'll float and slide over deep mud, paddling through it, even though the tracks aren't touching firm ground.

They have a sheet of about 40mm thick aluminium armour plate under the hull to protect the driver and riders from mine blasts. This was a modification we had to install during the Vietnam War, as quite a few drivers got killed early on, when they hit a mine without the armour sheeting underneath.

 

The Australian Army had all their M113's totally rebuilt in the early 2000's, and they chucked the 6V53's and installed an MTU V6 (Mercedes) diesel. I hate to think how much the rebuild exercise cost, they were totally gutted, and rebuilt from a basically bare hull.

Typical of all Defense "upgrades", Tenix ran into a heap of problems, not the least of which was excessive heat from the new engines, that were rated at 260Kw (350HP). 

The heat was cooking the drivers, so MTU knocked the engine output down by 25% - which comes out at 195Kw or just over 260HP - less than the 6V53T's.

 

But the rebuilt M113's are now 18 tonnes, as compared to the 13 tonnes of the originals, so the rebuilt/upgraded ones must be a bit gutless. The Americans still use the 6V53T.  Mercedes bought Detroit Diesel in 2000, and they still manufacture new 6V53's today for the U.S. Military. The U.S. military still run 13,000 M113's!

 

https://chevytrucks.org/detroit-diesel-series-53-engine-guide/

 

Interesting fact: The M113 was designed and built by the FMC Corporation - which stands for Food Manufacturing Corporation. FMC made so much money from building food manufacturing equipment in the early 1900's, they became a global giant, with major interests in chemicals, pharmaceuticals, minerals, manufacturing, and ordnance.

 

https://www.fmc.com/en/company/our-history

[willedoo]

Surely there must be a fundamental problem with Russian society today. This photo shows the Russian pre -school version of show and tell where the military visits and shows them a variety of weapons.

 

[willedoo]

Ukraine has picked a group of pilots to start training on western aircraft. My best guess would be training in the U.S. on F-16's. The F-16 would be a good fit for Ukraine, being a multi role fighter. They can carry a bigger payload than the Su-25 for the ground attack/combat air support role and have a similar number of hard points. Being single engine and lacking the armour of the Su-25, they are not as survivable, but probably a lot more versatile.

 

The post war building of the Ukrainian military will be interesting to follow, particularly with all they've learnt about their adversary. Eventually, they'll have to move away from older Soviet era gear, but there's no reason they can't develop a very successful domestic defence industry manufacturing capability to supplement imports of western equipment. They have a long history of manufacturing military and civilian machinery going back to Soviet times.

[rgmwa]

Presumably the US and others are planning to give Ukraine some F16's or whatever they're going to train the pilots on. Given how much western hardware they've already got, Ukraine will probably end up effectively being a member of NATO in terms of integration even if they don't join formally. Putin won't be happy. 

[kgwilson]

4 hours ago, willedoo said:

Surely there must be a fundamental problem with Russian society today. This photo shows the Russian pre -school version of show and tell where the military visits and shows them a variety of weapons.

 

Putler Youth at the start up stage. Guess who else tried that 80 years ago.

[onetrack]

Quote

Surely there must be a fundamental problem with Russian society today. This photo shows the Russian pre -school version of show and tell where the military visits and shows them a variety of weapons.

Not a lot different to American society, unfortunately. The number of American gun fondlers and military people training their children to handle firearms at a tender age is downright scary - and they should be charged with child abuse, IMO.

 

I can remember one f***wit American gun fondler with a Yootube video showing off his collection of 113 firearms, and showing him teaching his 3 and 4 yr olds how to use his firearms.

One would have to hope one of the kids took him out with an accidental round, one day. But that's America, they just shrug off kids killing adults via guns left lying around like toys.

[willedoo]

Putler must be hoping for a miracle to save his bacon. He won't be able to sustain the level of missile bombardment for too much longer. Stocks are already low, and estimates of the cost to launch this morning's barrage are between 400 to 600 million USD. It's equivalent to half the annual budget of the third and fourth largest cities in Russia. The Russians can't make any advances on the ground and are struggling to hold ground, so the only offensive he can carry out is bombardment of cities from the air.

 

As Ukraine is rapidly acquiring air defences, half these missiles are being shot down. I think he's trying to hang on until winter, hoping the cold will hold the fighting off enough so that his rabble can dig in, re-arm, rest up, and have another go in the new year. He might get a bit of a surprise as the Ukrainians now have plenty of gear to carry on over winter. The frozen ground will help their mobility. Another factor is that the Ukrainians have a plan, whereas the Russians have lost offensive capability and their only plan is to dig holes and hope they are still there next year.

[willedoo]

The Ukraine Air Force has said that the IRIS-T air defence system supplied by Germany had a 100% success rate on targets it engaged in yesterday's barrage. All up, they are saying Putler launched more than 50 missiles and 44 were shot down. An expensive game for Russia, as the KH-101 cruise missiles cost 13 million USD each. There was a report that a bunch of soldiers shot one down with small arms fire. They claim they got every rifleman they could muster and let loose with a barrage of bullets that the missile flew into. The cruise missiles fly as low as 30 metres.

[willedoo]

The long range of these missiles means that they will always be a threat. I think the KH-101 cruise missile has a 3,000klm range. Air launched, it's usually carried by Tu-160 and Tu-95 bombers, and are being launched from Belarus and Russian airspace. Some of the sea launched missiles are coming from as far away as the Caspian sea. They destroy facilities and infrastructure, but don't do much to take or hold ground.

 

I recon post war, Ukraine will be looking at ways to stop those boots on the ground, like the case of early in the war when Russian troops swept into large portions of lightly defended Ukrainian land. Keeping the integrity of their borders in the future will be a big priority. Unfortunately the location of the border doesn't do them any favours. Lots of wiggly lines and pockets of Ukrainian land extending into Russia and vise versa.

 

The security of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, will always be a problem being so close to the border. A lot of defence industry is there, like tank building and maintenance. Anything critical like that will possibly be relocated further west. I can see in the future more military bases in the east with an emphasis on air defence and artillery units. A lot of those rail lines crossing into Russia would be better off being dismantled. Overall, they need some way to stop a repeat of February 2022 where the Russians used road and rail to sweep into the country. Making it hard for them to do that again would be good. I don't think there was any doubt before, but now Ukraine definitely knows who their enemy is and where he will come from.

 

Eventual NATO membership will probably be their only long term security. Short term, being a NATO ally and having a military capable enough of deterring Russia will help, so long as there's not another wacko waiting in the wings to replace Putin.

[willedoo]

Further to that subject, prior to the February invasion, western supporters of Ukraine were hesitant to help arm the country to the degree required to deter Russia. They thought by doing so they would provoke Russia into conflict. It turns out that Putin himself let the genie out of the bottle. In that case, there should be no future barrier to the west helping Ukraine build defences to prevent it happening again.

[Old Koreelah]

Long-term I suspect Russia will remember Putin as the madman who lost them their ancestral home, much like the Serbs are still chafing about losing Kosovo. This war has firmly moved Ukraine into the western sphere. Russia has alienated almost the whole world and little Ukraine has collected lots of friends.

 

One of my first impression when arriving in Britain for the first time was seeing the flag of Ukraine prominently displayed at the airport with a phone number for refugees to contact for assistance. I bet the same is found across western Europe.

[willedoo]

Yes, Ukraine has certainly gained a lot of new friends and respect. The war might be the circuit breaker to move away from the entrenched corruption and towards EU and NATO membership. Those issues will need to be addressed post war, but I would guess being in a fight for the country's survival has been nation building and would go a long way toward weeding out the negatives. It's been like a coming of age for their administration.

 

As a result of Zelensky's handling of the war effort, he will be politically better positioned in the future to tackle the powerful elements in Ukraine that have been holding the country back through their self interest. I think Zelensky will go down in history as one of the most inspirational war time leaders to his people.

[rgmwa]

Yes, they're lucky to have Zelensky at the helm. He has been very adept at dealing with all the Western leaders and using the media effectively to keep the focus on the war effort. 

[Marty_d]

Zelensky and Trump - two TV personalities that became President.  But what a difference!

[Jerry_Atrick]

19 hours ago, willedoo said:

Air launched, it's usually carried by Tu-160 and Tu-95 bombers, and are being launched from Belarus and Russian airspace.

Despite Putin getting angry when there is an attack on Russian soil (or Crimean), as far as I am converned, if their too cowardly to go into Ukraine airspace to launch their attack, all bets are off as far as attacking targets in Russian (or any other country that provides the ability for Russia to launch attacks) territory.

 

I also wonder what damage Putin is doing to Belarus and Chechnya in the process?

Edited November 1, 2022 by Jerry_Atrick

[onetrack]

I spotted a feed on my Google news on my phone yesterday, that said "Discussions taking place in Russia to replace Putin as President". But when I went to find it again, I couldn't.

Maybe the person/s initiating the "discussions" were encouraged to stand by an open Russian window? Or maybe it was just a fanciful piece of journalism from a Ukrainian sponsor?

 

EDIT - Yes, now I have found it again, and of course, the article is being disseminated by a Ukrainian spy chief.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1689518/putin-news-russian-president-replaced-kremlin-moscow-ukraine-war

 

Edited November 2, 2022 by onetrack

[willedoo]

3 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

I also wonder what damage Putin is doing to Belarus and Chechnya in the process?

Jerry, you've phrased that like Chechnya is an independent country, and not a part of Russia. But I would agree that the complications for Chechnya are probably more than the other Russian states due to the independence seeking opposition in Chechnya. Ukraine has recently recognised the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria as a temporarily occupied state and Chechen opposition people are fighting the Russians in Ukraine. There's always a possibility the war will strengthen the opposition and weaken Kadyrov's position.

 

I would guess the Belorussian opposition would be hoping for a similar outcome, where the war is the beginning of the end of Lukashenko.

[facthunter]

A  weakened Putler has a bleak future. The fight with Chetnya was quite bitter. Nev

[facthunter]

Long border with CHINA too.  Had issues not that long ago. Nev

[willedoo]

3 hours ago, onetrack said:

EDIT - Yes, now I have found it again, and of course, the article is being disseminated by a Ukrainian spy chief.

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1689518/putin-news-russian-president-replaced-kremlin-moscow-ukraine-war

I don't think we can ever know whether the Security Service of Ukraine is telling the truth; about all we can assume is that some statements have an element of truth and some don't. I don't see anything sinister about that in the context of an active war for Ukraine's survival. Propaganda is a valuable tool to keep the public encouraged, and to demoralise the enemy. I think they have a two part job, one is to gather intelligence and the other is to engage in psyops against the enemy.

 

Some examples are the daily telephone intercepts released by the SBU. They may be genuine, but they are impossible to verify being audio only. Whether genuine or made up, they serve the same purpose to gradually filter through to the Russian public and to troops on the front line. It all adds to the information warfare being used to encourage demoralised Russian troops to surrender.

 

I don't know the truth in it, but I've read that elements of the Russian and Ukrainian security services have a relationship going back to when they were all KGB under the Soviet Union. Some of the older people still in the services on both sides have allegedly remained friends and maintain contact. One of the Ukrainian spooks said a while back that they have people inside Russia. If all that is true, then a fair bit of Ukrainian intelligence on Russia would be accurate.

[willedoo]

6 minutes ago, facthunter said:

Long border with CHINA too.  Had issues not that long ago. Nev

It's not that fanciful to imagine south east Siberia becoming northern China.

[facthunter]

I can still remember "Tokyo Rose' and the Germans had them too.   Nev

[Yenn]

Hitler invaded Russia, as did Napoleon and in those days i think Ukraine was considered part of Russia and it was the part that saved Russia from being defeated. Of course Ukraine is no longer part of Russia or the USSR as it should really be called and Putin can feel the draught.