Sanctions against Russia

[rgmwa]

They probably left all their ammunition on the other side of the river.

 

[willedoo]

2 hours ago, rgmwa said:

They probably left all their ammunition on the other side of the river.

 

That's ok, Ukrainians are generous people. I'm sure they'll send it all back over to them.

[willedoo]

3 hours ago, nomadpete said:

I am still peplexed. I expected the Ruskies to obliterate Kherson city as soon as the Ukranian flags went up.

I don't believe they will let go so easily. Unless they really are getting more unstrategic (is that even a word?)

I think the retreating Russians are in a bit of disarray. They might not have their artillery set up yet, along with it's associated logistics and infantry cover, drone support etc..

 

These are all unconfirmed, but there's reports of the Ukrainians taking an area on the Kinburn Spit on the east bank. Also gunfire and explosions heard in another town on the east bank, south of Kherson city.

 

Another report said that HIMARS strikes on the retreat crossings at Kherson city left 10,000 to 12,000 Russian troops still on the west bank who hightailed it up to the Nova Kakhovka dam wall and crossed there on foot. The Russians had previously knocked out the road bridge in front of the dam wall so they couldn't drive across. Other reports today are saying the Ukrainians struck a 500 strong concentration of Russian troops in a small village just south of Nova Kakhovka, killing and wounding a lot of them. There might be limited truth in some of the reports, but the general feeling is that the retreating Russians are struggling. A Russian media outlet said Russian forces are pulling back from the east bank area to establish defensive lines further east.

 

My best guess is that the Russians are trying to save their artillery for the defence further east. They know the Ukrainians now have a swag of HIMARS and supporting drones just across the river. As soon as the Russian artillery gave away their position by firing, they would probably get HIMARS'd very promptly. This Surovikin character seems to be a bit smarter than the previous Russian commanders. He seems to have some sense of force preservation.

 

As far as long range missile strikes go, the Russian stocks are down to about one third supply. Maybe they want to save them to hit more critical infrastructure around the country, rather than expend them on hitting Kherson.

[willedoo]

One problem the Russians are going to have in holding defensive lines is that the Ukrainians have gained a lot more strength in recent times. The Russians don't have enough troops and if they move them to shore up support in one area, they leave another area vulnerable. The conscripted rabble is not going to give them any long term advantage. At this stage, the Russians seem to be just using the mobilised troops to soak up Ukrainian ammunition.

[willedoo]

President Zelensky is in Kherson today for the official flag raising ceremony. A big difference in the two leaders; I couldn't imagine Putler coming out of his bunker to a hot zone for something similar. Zelensky has big ones, but Putler has no balls at all. Not even a left one.

[spacesailor]

Could be your grammer showing !.

" at their Least strategic  " .

spacesailor

 

Edited November 14, 2022 by spacesailor

[nomadpete]

I am guessing, but I suspect that this war might have a positive outcome in one way. Ukraine used to have the same corrupt reputation as Russia. But Zelensky realises (it seems) that he risks losing all that lovely support if he allows the Ukraine administration and military to sink to their old levels. Hopefully they will create a more honorable, less corrupt new Ukraine when they get around to rebuilding. 

[willedoo]

Here's some footage of gear left by Russians who swam across the river to escape.

 

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1592140293025009664

[facthunter]

IF you are going to swim in fresh water you don't need to be weighted down with anything..  Nev

[willedoo]

9 minutes ago, facthunter said:

IF you are going to swim in fresh water you don't need to be weighted down with anything..  Nev

They're practicing for later on when they have to swim the Kerch Straight to escape Crimea.

[Old Koreelah]

16 hours ago, willedoo said:

That's ok, Ukrainians are generous people. I'm sure they'll send it all back over to them.

I doubt that, but there is a precedent. The story goes that during the Maori wars the Pakeha ran out of ammo and the locals were so enjoying the battle that they sent them some more!

[willedoo]

1 hour ago, Old Koreelah said:

I doubt that, but there is a precedent. The story goes that during the Maori wars the Pakeha ran out of ammo and the locals were so enjoying the battle that they sent them some more!

What I meant was that they would return it in a rather hot fashion.The odd thing is, the Russians don't appreciate getting it back. A thankless lot.

[onetrack]

I wonder what the chances are of Russian deserters being picked up? Seems to me like they could do a bunk and keep a low profile, and the Russian military wouldn't have any idea of where they were, or what had happened to them - or even care what had happened to them.

They could turn up after the war was over, and claim they'd been held captive by Ukrainians, and the Russians probably wouldn't even check with the Ukrainians.

But no doubt the deserters would still be treated like deserters, even if the Russians had no proof they'd deserted, and they'd still be jailed.

[Old Koreelah]

21 minutes ago, onetrack said:

I wonder what the chances are of Russian deserters being picked up? Seems to me like they could do a bunk and keep a low profile, and the Russian military wouldn't have any idea of where they were, or what had happened to them - or even care what had happened to them.

They could turn up after the war was over, and claim they'd been held captive by Ukrainians, and the Russians probably wouldn't even check with the Ukrainians.

But no doubt the deserters would still be treated like deserters, even if the Russians had no proof they'd deserted, and they'd still be jailed.

Never underestimate the cruelty of Russian leaders. After The Great Patriotic War, trainloads of soviet soldiers who had somehow survived Nazi POW camps were taken straight to Siberian labour camps. There are many stories of returning prisoners being shot on the docks.

[facthunter]

  I omitted to send tis yesterday. Hop0e it's still relevant.

       In WW1 The Germans were short of rubber tyres and the brits needed magnetos so exchanges were arranged.  That's true. I guess the show must go on.. Also the British Parliament didn't want to attack  the Ruhr as many had investments in Krupp Stahl.  Nev 

[Bruce Tuncks]

I like nomadpete's idea, and that is that the russians will not change their corrupt regimes but the Ukrainians will. I base this partly on what happened to Churchill after ww2. There was no way that those who fought would want to return to being serfs. But that is exactly what the conservatives of england wanted.

[willedoo]

4 hours ago, onetrack said:

I wonder what the chances are of Russian deserters being picked up? Seems to me like they could do a bunk and keep a low profile, and the Russian military wouldn't have any idea of where they were, or what had happened to them - or even care what had happened to them.

They could turn up after the war was over, and claim they'd been held captive by Ukrainians, and the Russians probably wouldn't even check with the Ukrainians.

But no doubt the deserters would still be treated like deserters, even if the Russians had no proof they'd deserted, and they'd still be jailed.

There must be a few different categories of deserters. The Russian troops in civilian clothes being rounded up around Kherson are not really deserters. More like stranded soldiers, as their last orders were if you are trapped on the west bank, change into civvies and get out as best you can.

 

Some mobilised conscripts have fled the front line, but gone to the Russian rear. Most of the ones publicised have done it in significant groups rather than alone. Authorities in the rear have given them the choice to return to the front or be locked up. It's risky business for Russians surrendering as they are risking being shot by their own troops from behind. According to some reports it's been happening.

 

There's been a lot of publicity in the last few days about that Wagners convict recruit. He was captured and said in a video interview that he would like to join the Russian League fighting for Ukraine. Being a convicted murderer and Wagners volunteer, he had Buckley's chance of that happening. He ended up being sent back in a prisoner exchange, then was sent back to Wagners where they executed him with a sledge hammer for treason. The treason part wasn't being captured, but going down on record as wanting to join the Ukrainians.

 

In all the videos of prisoners returning in prisoner exchanges, there's a big difference in the body language between the Russians and Ukrainians. The Ukrainians look happy and are probably looking forward to getting back in the fight. With the Russians on the other hand, they look far from happy. They know their best chance of survival is in a Ukrainian POW prison. With exchange, they know they'll be sent straight back into the meat grinder.

 

 

[Bruce Tuncks]

WW1 was completely different. The nearest thing to "good guys" was the Germans, but they were pretty bad too.

There was a historian who placed the blame on 60% england, 30% germany and 10% all the rest who didn't even try to stop it.

Austral]ia could have stopped it for example. 

Stopping ww1 would have prevented Hitler and Stalin which would have made the stopping worth while.

Edited November 15, 2022 by Bruce Tuncks

[Bruce Tuncks]

But I grew up influenced by South Australia which was 50% ethnic german. Since becoming a Victorian, I have come to realize that this was unusual in Australia, if not in the USA. Most of australia was much more anglophile than SA. 

At the time of ww1, we apparently regarded ourselves as english. How stupid, say I.

[red750]

Two people killed in Poland by a missile, suspected of being Russian. Some say it may have strayed from an attack on Ukraine, others not sure. Hold onto your hat!!

 

My late uncle, Henryk, (married my father's sister) was a WWII refugee from Krakow, about 200 km from the Ukraine border, as the missile flies.

[Old Koreelah]

3 hours ago, red750 said:

My late uncle, Henryk, (married my father's sister) was a WWII refugee from Krakow, about 200 km from the Ukraine border, as the missile flies.

Red you’ve coined a new turn of phrase : as the missile flies.

 

My sister spent a few months in rural Croatia with her hubby’s folks, where she was treated like royalty.  She loved it, despite the language barrier and privations due to the war. While joining in the farmwork, she often watched Serb missiles passing over on the way to Zagreb.

[Bruce Tuncks]

IF it was a mistake, the russians will apologise and pay compensation....  if not, then we will know it was a deliberate test.

[Bruce Tuncks]

I reckon that after the war, there will be a great amount of tourism. In fact, there could already be a big market for people who want to see a war.

[facthunter]

Trump is running again. The next war may come to you.. Only HE ca FIX America (according to him). More likely to throw off the court cases following him and give him immunity again.   Nev

[Old Koreelah]

He stacked the Supreme Court and his lackeys have won the lower house. Expect them to block anything the Democrats try to do, just like they did to Obama. (He tried to reach compromises with the Republicans but they openly said they’d don’t do deals; they’d rather bugger up their country than do deals with the Libs.)