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Sanctions against Russia


Bruce Tuncks

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1 hour ago, facthunter said:

He's hardly likely to rage against the "official View" where he is. He DID say that he was well looked after in the USA. IF I recall correctly..   Nev

Being a bit of a legend, he might have had a bit of street cred while he was in jail. He stuffed up badly when he got caught in that staged sting operation in Thailand. He would never normally expose himself like that in person, but the one time he did, he was caught. I'm sure the Americans would have had a history of employing his talents, but it seemed like he stood on a few toes, or talked too much.

 

A lot of people say Nicolas Cage's character in the movie Lord of War was based on Viktor, but in a book I once read, the author said that was a common misconception, and that it was actually based on another arms dealer. In the movie Kandahar (the Russian movie, not the other one), where the Russian crew of a Il-76 were held captive for a year by the Taliban before escaping with the plane, I'm fairly sure that was one of Viktor's planes. Also that abandoned Il-76 near Sharjah is one of his, as far as I remember. Nobody could really keep track of his planes with a heap of shelf companies and constantly changing registrations.

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Well, there it is - Putin's master plan. It's gone from taking Kiev in three days to digging defensive trenches on the beach in Crimea.

 

There's also reports coming in that Wagner's barracks in Melitopol has been HIMARS'd, with almost no survivors and 300+ mercenaries eliminated. Quite a few other strikes on other Russian bases and positions as well. It looks like the Ukrainians will continue to soften up the Russians while they wait or the ground to freeze over.

 

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The Pushkin State Museum of Fine Arts in Moscow caught fire yesterday. It's the largest museum of European art in Moscow, housing around 700,000 art works and archaeological objects. The Pushkin holds iconic works from European painters such as Rembrandt, Cezanne, Degas and Vincent Van Gogh. At the rate the fires are going, Russia will run out of firefighting foam soon.

Edited by willedoo
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Another day in Russia, another big fire (or two, or three). Another shopping centre on the outskirts of Moscow has gone up in flames. That's the second one in two days. Also a synthetic rubber plant on fire to compliment the tyre manufacturing plant that went up in flames two days ago. The fire brigades must be stretched for resources; they barely get a day off these days.

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This is a short clip of a Ukrainian IFV churning through the mud. The Russians will be in trouble when the ground freezes. By that time, a lot of them will be down with frostbite, hypothermia and malnutrition, and the Ukrainians will be coming for them. The only positive step the Russians have made during the lull in offensive operations, is to build up their fortification and trench system. It might slow the Ukrainians, but it won't stop them.

 

Some of the anti tank trenches the Russians have dug are not wide enough. With a bit of speed, tanks can travel straight over them. As far as their concrete Dragon's Teeth barricades go, my guess is that they would crumble under armoured vehicles. Some photos have been showing up online of the concrete breaking down and pieces falling off. Going by the general state of Russian military acquisition, the chances are that the contractors would be skimping on the required cement content to pocket the cash difference.

 

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1602796258460065793

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Almost ten months after the start of Putler's special thing, he has said in an interview that there are no issues or problems with how his special military operation is going at the moment. Move along, nothing to see here. Apologies if this should be in the jokes section.

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Worrying what World Putler Lives in.  3 days and you will be welcomed with roses. 100 times what was told in the Original SELL still going with mounting casualties of the Russians and "don't call it a WAR" or you are an enemy of the state. . It would be a very short list of People who would want to change places with Our Vlad at the moment.  Nev

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2 hours ago, facthunter said:

Worrying what World Putler Lives in.  3 days and you will be welcomed with roses. 100 times what was told in the Original SELL still going with mounting casualties of the Russians and "don't call it a WAR" or you are an enemy of the state. . It would be a very short list of People who would want to change places with Our Vlad at the moment.  Nev

I think he can sense his end. I'd be very surprised if he's still the president of Russia this time next year.

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From the report that Red posted, given he concedes there are issues, and that is prepared to enter into negotiations, it certainly looks as if he knows something drastic doesn't happen soon, it will be game over - in more ways than one, I would imagine. What this episode has shown is that, while in the west we have our war hawks, they are completely outclassed in the likes of Russia, Chechnya, etc. I was quite amazed and just how rabble rousing and blood-thirsty most of them were - for what seemed the sake of it.

 

And the BS that they pedaled, that a good chunk of the population at least publicly seem to swallow is also concerning in that a whole population will go along with it. At the moment, my admiration is for the people of Iran standing up to, what on the surface is a much more hardline regime and facing almost certain death for their involvement. Maybe the straw hasn't broken the camel's back in Russia, yet.. or maybe because the fighting and deaths are largely in foreign soil - who knows? But it was interesting to see the potential recruits to mobilisation flee the sinking ship rather than stand their ground.. I can't say in the same position I would not have done the same, to be honest - iot would have depended on my situation (family to feed, etc). Yes, there were some isolated protests, but..

 

I am not so certain I believe the press that the Russian people are good.. Why would good people not collectively act against what is happening in the 21st century. It is not like the country was on its knees econcomically, or was under any real threat - and the population knew it. But then, maybe we would all (or at least the vast majority of us) would act exactly the same in the same circumstances. Humanity is a very worrying philosophy at times.

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Putler is definitely seeing the writing on the wall. The Kremlin has being saying for a while now that they are ready to negotiate (as long as Russia gets what it wants). The latest one is that they will cease fire if Ukraine gives them the four occupied territories and leaves Crimea alone. I would guess it's just one last desperate gamble that Ukraine might be dumber than the Russians are. I wouldn't hold their breath if I was them.

 

The Russians know that they have a very small and shrinking window in which to be able to negotiate from any sort of position of strength. In another three to four months, they are likely to be in a world of pain. So far, their strength has been entirely in the field of missiles and artillery. They are completely hopeless on the ground, so have had to rely on massive artillery barrages to see them through. This article from Defence One is probably close to the mark:

 

'Russian forces could find themselves out of artillery and rocket ammunition within months, a senior U.S. military official said Monday. 

“We assess that at the rate of fire that Russia has been using its artillery and rocket ammunition, in terms of what we would call fully serviceable artillery and rocket ammunition, they could probably do that until early 2023,” the official told reporters. Because their ammunition stocks are “rapidly dwindling,” Russian forces are likely using more ammunition in “degraded conditions,” which may not fire or explode correctly, the official said.

 

“This essentially puts Russian forces in a position to have to make a choice about what risks it's willing to accept in terms of increased failure rates, unpredictable performance, and whether or not these degraded munitions would require any type of refurbishment,” they said.

 

Russia has used older munitions, some up to 40 years old, since its February invasion, the official said.

As for precision-guided munitions, the official said, the Russians “have used quite a bit of their stockpile,” which has “really diminished their ability to sustain their current rate of fire.”

 

Pentagon officials also believe that “the Russian military will very likely struggle to replenish its reserve of fully serviceable artillery and rocket ammunition through foreign suppliers, increased domestic production, and refurbishment,” the official said.'

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There's reports of attacks on the oil refineries at Angarsk in south central Siberia. Russian media is reporting one refinery completely destroyed and the neighbouring one seriously damaged. Apparently the explosion was so powerful that seismographs registered it as an earthquake. Angarsk is claimed to be the largest industrial zone in Asia.

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