Sanctions against Russia

[nomadpete]

8 hours ago, willedoo said:

When it comes to regime change, the West needs to stop looking for flavour of the month poster boys and start having a real good think about suitable candidates.

Foe a minute there, I thought you might be referring to (notso) Gt Britain, or (notso) United States.........

 

[willedoo]

11 hours ago, rgmwa said:

Heard a BBC journalist based in Moscow today comment on what the Russian population think. He said his team had travelled widely through the country talking to people. His view was that a very vocal 10% or so were fully behind Putin, while a less vocal 10% were totally opposed to the war. The rest were being fed a steady diet of official propaganda but also hearing lots of stories and rumours that were making them feel uneasy, but not enough to take any action. Basically they were trying to ignore Putin and the war and just getting on with their lives. His view was that the longer this drags on the more likely the silent majority may start to show some real opposition to what’s going on. No doubt Putin is well aware of that risk too.

At times I've read where journalists have said that traditionally there was always an informal compact between the Russian people and their government. That  arrangement was that people turned a blind eye to the corruption and antics of those in power, and in return, the government largely stayed out of people's lives. It's now said that Putin has broken that compact as his war is impacting the average person more and more as time goes by. People are getting increasingly unhappy with the way things are going, but I can't see any sort of Russian Spring uprising ever happening. If there's ever any regime change, it will be driven by the elites.

 

 

[willedoo]

12 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

however, would Navalny be able to achieve true reform that both Gerbochev and Breshnev couldn't

Jerry, I think there's also another issue with Navalny. Theoretically, in the future, if Navalny was able to gain widespread public support (a fantasy in my opinion) and was to gain political power to the degree where he was looking like a real chance as a candidate, he would probably get bumped off. Over the last few years, he's upset a lot of rich and powerful people. But if the oligarchs didn't get him, Kadyrov would. Navalny is a leopard who changed his spots ten years ago to gain western support. Previous to that, his nationalistic, anti-immigration, anti Muslim, anti Chechen stance would have made an enemy of Kadyrov for life.

 

As an indication of the sort of person Navalny is, this old video is still up on his youtube site. In the video, Navalny is likening Chechens to a species of cockroach. The rest is self explanatory, and he ends the video advising people to buy a gun. His views haven't changed, only when he talks to the western press. In my opinion, the man is a total fraud. Certainly not fit to be in any position of power.

 

 

[willedoo]

Just as an edit to the above post, this video was made quite a few years ago before Navalny was known world wide. At the time of making the video, he was a relative nobody compared to his fame now. Back then he was mainly pushing nationalism and gun rights for citizens and basically just being a far right, racist dick. He has past form appearing as guest speaker at neo Nazi rallies, and generally anywhere people would listen to him. Earlier this century he had a shot at politics and joined a right wing party. He wasn't there long before he was expelled for his extreme views. But who knows? Maybe he has changed and just woke up one morning and decided to be Mr. Nice Guy.

[onetrack]

The U.K. Telegraph has run an article about how the Russian military aircraft losses are related nearly as much to "friendly fire", as much as they are to Ukrainian air defence prowess.

Obviously, there's a major lack of communication and co-ordination between the Russian Air Force and the Russian air defences that are operating within Ukrainian territory.

The Ukrainians are chuffed, and reckon they'll put on a gala dinner for the Russian air defences, such is their helpfulness.

By the same token, I'll wager the Russian troops on the ground have probably suffered losses via Russian Air Force attacks that were mismanaged, too.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/30/russian-jets-shot-sky-almost-downed-moscow-air-defence-systems/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by onetrack

[willedoo]

1 hour ago, onetrack said:

The U.K. Telegraph has run an article about how the Russian military aircraft losses are related nearly as much to "friendly fire", as much as they are to Ukrainian air defence prowess.

Obviously, there's a major lack of communication and co-ordination between the Russian Air Force and the Russian air defences that are operating within Ukrainian territory.

The Ukrainians are chuffed, and reckon they'll put on a gala dinner for the Russian air defences, such is their helpfulness.

By the same token, I'll wager the Russian troops on the ground have probably suffered losses via Russian Air Force attacks that were mismanaged, too.

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/30/russian-jets-shot-sky-almost-downed-moscow-air-defence-systems/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr

 

 I thought the Ukrainians showed a bit of class attacking the Engels bomber base for the second time on Boxing Day. The 26th. is Russia's national day of air defences, and they obviously didn't work. The Russians are a bit jitterish now; after the Boxing Day attack, they shot down one of their own Su-27's killing the pilot near Engels.

 

There's been some interesting debates as to what the Ukrainians are using that has a 800klm+ range to be able to hit Engels. Most are saying they've modified the old Soviet Tu-141 Strizh recon drone, while others are saying no to that theory.

[Old Koreelah]

Anyone hopeful of this war ending with Putin being overthrown from within might learn a bit from the video below.

With Imperial Japan on the ropes, their war cabinet still took eons to finally get the Emperor to record a surrender speech. Despite this, at least three separate groups of diehards tried to overthrow the government and continue the war. 

 

Current regimes in Russia and North Korea are in a different situation, but it shows how hard it is for a country to actually stop a war.

 

 

[onetrack]

Ukraine has hit back with a deadly HIMARS strike on a vocational school in Makiivka, in the Donetsk Peoples Republic - which was housing a large number of Russian soldiers.

 

The Ukrainians identified a large increase in mobile phone communications in one building in Makiivka on NYE, apparently with the assistance of ECHELON. 

 

The Ukrainians waited until just on midnight, as a large gathering of Russian troops in the building were celebrating the New Year, and just starting to watch Putin's official NYE address.

The Ukrainians lobbed a reported 3 HIMARS missiles onto the building over a couple of minutes, and totally destroyed it - aided, apparently, by munitions that were also stored in the building.

 

Furthermore, the buildings destruction resulted in at least 10 military vehicles, or military equipment items, being destroyed as well. Many of the Russian soldiers were apparently buried or killed by falling rubble.

Of course, the Ukrainians are crowing about having killed 400-500 Russian troops - while Russians admit only to a loss of 63 troops.

No doubt, more accurate casualty info will trickle out later, probably from Russian soldiers phone intercepts, as they call family and relate the news.

I would not be surprised to see the final toll reach at least 200. There are possibly still more victims buried in the rubble. But then again, the Russians have been known to get rid of soldiers bodies to reduce the body count, so what better way than to just say the men have just gone missing, and they probably deserted. The Russians will probably not even bother with digging in the rubble.

 

This is an astoundingly successful whack on Russian forces and equipment, and one can only hope, just a taste of what's to come for Russian forces, as Western countries keep up the supply of missiles and armaments to the Ukraine - and as Ukraine continues to utilise them with great effect.

 

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1609764123633659904

 

https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Удар_по_лагерю_российских_солдат_в_Макеевке

 

http://wikimapia.org/226237/ru/Кремлёвская-ул-48

 

https://charter97.org/ru/news/2023/1/2/530546/

 

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2023 by onetrack

[red750]

Soldiers' widows group calls on Putin to order major mobilisation for Ukraine war

 

Read report.

[facthunter]

One way to expand the organisation of War Widows. It's a bit like after a bushfire. My House burned down why didn't yours?    Nev

[Old Koreelah]

That thinking is not confined to the Russians; in Australia during The Great War, civilian men were often accosted by women whose menfolk had gone off to war. White Feathers were often sent.

[facthunter]

Conscription has questionable legitimacy.  The government should do the wishes of the populace or they are YOUR enemy. Speaking out against  Putin requires strength and bravery..You have to be ready to  die for your beliefs if you oppose the "MAN"..  He set himself up in power.  Then makes it impossible to be removed. Nev

[onetrack]

Now the Russians have admitted that 89 soldiers were killed in the Ukraine HIMARS strike - "with many more possibly buried under the rubble".

 

This admission of more confirmed soldiers deaths, simply shows the Russians are struggling to hide major military losses - and no doubt there will be some heads rolling in the military leadership for this disaster.

 

However, thanks to the ineffective, corrupt and badly-led Russian military, any changes to leadership will probably have only minimal value - and their losses due to poor leadership and poor morale will only continue.

[willedoo]

Considering that Russian units have been significantly under strength since the start of the war, the loss in this strike could be the equivalent of one of their battalions in numbers. That's a lot of cannon fodder that never made it to the trenches. Makiivka is virtually an outer suburb of Donetsk city, and I think it's where the main rail supply line comes in from southern Russia. It's probably the main holding area for new reinforcements brought in by rail and bus.

[willedoo]

There was an unverified report of air defences firing in Rostov in Russia to try to bring down what appeared to be a balloon. Someone commented that it would be a good tactic for partisans in Russia and the occupied territories - get some helium, fill up large balloons and let them go at night so the Russians deplete their air defence ammunition.

[willedoo]

The HIMARS strikel in Makiivka has made a lot of news reports, but it brushes over the regular losses in the field that the Russians are getting. The toll around Bakhmut is staggering. It's reduced to a senseless slaughter, as the Russians have been trying to take a not so strategic town for months now. I think it's just become a stubborn pride thing for the Russians to take Bakhmut. All just for the Kremlin to spin it to the public as a brave victory after a long struggle.

 

The Russians there are reduced to attacking in piecemeal platoon or section strengths, and the troops have the choice of dying there in battle, or retreating and suffering a worse fate from their own side. By the weekend, temperatures are forecast to drop to -10 or lower, so there will likely be big Russian losses from the weather alone.

[onetrack]

I saw where Prigozhin of Wagner fame (or rather, infamy), is complaining about the Ukrainians "turning every house into a fortress" in Bakhmut, thus making his troops struggle to make any headway.

 

Prigozhin himself is a common crim, having served 9 yrs for robbery. Little wonder he's happy to round up Russian criminals to do his dirty work.

 

The lack of military resources for Russian forces is now showing up - unlike the Ukraine, where many Western countries are still supplying a large amount of the necessary hardware and ammo to them, to ensure the Russians don't win.

 

 

 

[red750]

Todays news says Australia has ordered half a dozen or so HIMARS.

[Jerry_Atrick]

Yes.. $1bn worth, apparently.. Very impressive showroom is Ukraine...

 

France have announced they are sending some light armoured vehicles to Ukraine, and then claimed they are the first western light armoured vehicles to be sent. I think he means either European or Northern Hemisphere: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-send-ukraine-light-combat-vehicles-kyiv-wants-tanks-allies-2023-01-04/

 

Also, the US is going to send some as well.. However, Zelensky is asking for tanks. So far, falling on deaf ears.

 

Edited January 5, 2023 by Jerry_Atrick

[spacesailor]

Conscription has questionable legitimacy. 

In the UK. A old King outlawed PRESS GANGS ( conscripting drunks into service ) .

BUT he Was mad .

It also started a war with America .

spacesailor

 

[willedoo]

The Russians are trying to disguise their fuel trucks as logging trucks. I doubt it would do them much good. The Ukrainians are smart enough to know where and when logging is taking place, and what sort of trucks they use. Also, the resolution of the recon drone cameras is fairly good.

 

[Old Koreelah]

It seems Russia’s biggest handicap is cultural; the Motherland produces more than it’s share of great people, but they have to battle prejudice, incompetence and suspicion to acheive anything. No wonder so many give up and drink Vodka. 

 

This amazing true story of Soviet POWs who escaped a Nazi concentration camp by commandeering a Heinkel 111 should have inspired action movies; instead, the brave men who made it back to Russia with secrets about the German rocket programme were treated like criminals. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Devyataev

[facthunter]

I don't know how people like Josef Stalin can be admired when they are such ruthless Murderers of their own.   Nev

[willedoo]

Stalin issued order No. 270 that troops had to fight to the end and not surrender. His comment was "There are no Soviet prisoners of war, only traitors." Stalin was Georgian and had one of those unpronounceable Georgian surnames, until he changed it to Stalin, which is Russian for steel. So he became the man of steel; typical small-dicktator. Putin tries his hardest to emulate him.

[willedoo]

I've read the autobiography of Anna Yegorova, who was a Il-2 Shturmovik pilot in WW2, and from memory the only female Il-2 pilot in the war. She was shot down and severely injured and burned in the bail-out, then captured by the Germans. When the POW camp was liberated, she was shocked at the treatment she received by the NKVD, and was held and interrogated for a while. She was eventually released, but was banned from party membership for a long time. Without party membership, job opportunities were limited. Eventually in the 60's Khrushchev era, she was rehabilitated and awarded the Hero of the Soviet Union award.