Sanctions against Russia

[kgwilson]

At the end of WW2 thousands of returning Russian soldiers were pulled out of the lines and shipped East to the Gulags. Stalin imprisoned over 18 million people from 1920 till his death in 1953. The song by Al Stewart "Roads to Moscow"  is an anthology of a Russian soldiers life from Hitlers invasion to incarceration at the end of WW2. Great song about 8 minutes long.

[kgwilson]

 

Edited January 6, 2023 by kgwilson

[willedoo]

This is an interesting article by retired U.S. General Mark Hertling. He writes of the M2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles that are soon to be supplied to Ukraine. One interesting feature is their tank killing ability and the fact that they out range the Russian tanks.

 

https://www.thebulwark.com/what-bradley-fighting-vehicles-will-mean-for-ukraine/

[willedoo]

The Kremlin idiocy is going from bad to worse. The Russian Defence Ministry is claiming a missile attack on Ukrainian troops housed in two buildings in Kramatorsk has killed 600 Ukrainian troops. They say it was a 'retaliation operation' in response to Ukraine's recent HIMARS strike in Makiivka. The western press has been at the site, and not only are the buildings empty with no sign of Ukrainian troops, but the Russian missiles didn't even hit the buildings and only blasted a couple of holes in the ground. The usual BS from the Russians.

 

If they've come up with a figure of 600 Ukrainian troops killed, you can bet the Russian death toll in Makiivka was at least 300. It's just the sort of thing they would do for propaganda - fabricate a retaliatory figure x2. Some sources are saying the Russian death toll in Makiivka could even be as high as 600, as they are saying a battalion strength group was there at the time. A Russian officer who survived the blast has said they were ordered to gather there to watch Putin's New Year's Eve address. A bit ironic that they died listening to Putin tell them that the Special Military Operation is all going according to plan.

 

 

[willedoo]

I'm not usually in the habit of making predictions for a new year ahead, but I wouldn't be surprised if Putin exits mortal life this year. The Putin regime is blindly continuing the war as they have boxed themselves into a corner, and are desperately trying to survive. If they stop the war now, their regime will not survive, and if they keep fighting they will get weaker and weaker. Most likely the same result in the long run and either way, Putler and his cronies are f'd.

[Bruce Tuncks]

you are right as usual willedoo. The big worry is that Putin might try and use nukes if he has nothing more to lose. We must have those who would have to carry out the order believe that they will die sooner if they obey Putin and their only hope of survival is to not do his bidding.

This is asking a lot....   they will die if they defy Putin and he is not replaced real fast.

[kgwilson]

The counter attack a few months ago in the Luhansk was the major eye opener then the retreat from Kherson. The Russians have concentrated their attacks around Bahkmut but have made no progress in months. They keep probing to the North and South & gain a block or a paddock & then get beaten back again. The infamous Wagner group of mercenaries has been severely weakened as well & they will be running out of prisoners to send as new canon fodder. Ukraine has been hitting Russian airfields and their positions in Crimea and other select targets as they are smart enough to know that firing off artillery all the time will just use up reserves which is what the Russians have been doing. They have far superior intelligence and partisan contacts which the Russians lack.

 

How long it will take for Putin to go I am not prepared to guess. The cap on the oil price, reduced gas supply and sanctions will be biting harder now that the Europeans have now got alternative supplies.

 

I said it somewhere before but I like the statement Churchill made after the allied victory in North Africa. "This is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, it is perhaps the end of the beginning".

 

Churchill was right. Stalingrad & North Africa were the turning points in WW2.

 

The Ukrainian gains in the North and liberation of Kherson I think will be the turning points in this war. Putin may have another go (something like the battle of Kursk or the battle of the Bulge) possibly from Belarus in another attempt to seize Kiev. If he does and it fails he is gone 100%.

[willedoo]

4 hours ago, kgwilson said:

The Russians have concentrated their attacks around Bahkmut but have made no progress in months. They keep probing to the North and South & gain a block or a paddock & then get beaten back again. The infamous Wagner group of mercenaries has been severely weakened as well & they will be running out of prisoners to send as new canon fodder.

I was reading where Wagner boss Prickozhin has said he wants the Bakhmut/Soledar area because of the salt mines there. There is a huge network of underground connected tunnels and caverns that the Russians want for equipment and munition storage. Conversely, they would be eager to deny the Ukrainians of that capability.  Apparently some caverns are big enough to hold football matches. At this stage, I think the Ukrainians control most of them.

Edited January 10, 2023 by willedoo

[willedoo]

4 hours ago, kgwilson said:

The Ukrainian gains in the North and liberation of Kherson I think will be the turning points in this war. Putin may have another go (something like the battle of Kursk or the battle of the Bulge) possibly from Belarus in another attempt to seize Kiev. If he does and it fails he is gone 100%.

I think that's spot on. It's hard to see how Putin would survive a failed push from Belarus. His chances of success there would be nearly zero. Normally you would say he wouldn't be stupid enough to try that with another under-strength and low quality force. However, since the beginning of the war, the Russians have redefined the meaning of stupid, and there's been nothing but precedence for stupid on a massive scale.

 

More likely, he's trying to make noise there to divert Ukrainian forces to the north, and in doing so, leave weaknesses in the south east front that they can exploit. If Putler doesn't have some significant gains in the next three months, the Russians are in real trouble. By that time, the massive amount of gear that has been promised to Ukraine will start to become operational. By the middle of this year, Ukraine should have a much more superior conventional force and will have a good offensive capability. I recon if Russia is still fighting by mid year, they won't have much of an army left back in their own country.

 

Putin is unlikely to back down in the interests of his country. For him, he must win to survive and he seems prepared to trash his whole country to achieve that. There must be a point of no return where the Russians can stop the war and still have a viable defence force left, or keep going until they are completely stuffed..

[rgmwa]

It will be interesting to see how the Russian public reacts if he decides on another round of conscription. That would surely make them question the alleged success of the SMO.

 

[willedoo]

There's rumours that they will soon announce another 500,000 mobilisation. It might not happen, but the Kremlin is counting on the Russian public being brainwashed enough to believe the narrative that they are fighting for Russia's survival. Since the war started, they've got rid of all the independent press which helps keep people deluded.

[rgmwa]

They may be deluded but they're not stupid. Eventually the penny will drop, especially as it seems most of the population is becoming more uneasy about the increasing time and cost of this quick victory that they've  been promised.

 

[Old Koreelah]

I presume the West is going all-out to provide alternative information to the Russia population. If not, it’s a hell of an oversight.

[willedoo]

34 minutes ago, Old Koreelah said:

I presume the West is going all-out to provide alternative information to the Russia population. If not, it’s a hell of an oversight.

There's plenty of information for them through the general western press and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, plus the Moscow Times. Possibly part of the problem is that only the more educated will access news via the internet. Most of the sheep will just swallow whatever the nightly TV dishes up, which at the moment, is a fantasy based parallel universe. Since the war started, the Russian television stations have descended into a state of mass insanity.

[onetrack]

The news will gradually filter back to the average Russian from disgruntled soldiers, and dissidents that have moved to other countries. But the real hit to Putin will come when the ordinary Russians start to suffer as a result of sanctions or shortages, or a cut in the value of the buying power of their pensions. That's when the rumblings from within will become a real worry for Putin.

 

Unfortunately, I believe that Putin is likely to die from some medical ailment, before that actually happens.

[facthunter]

What's HE got to lose when HE's already a dead man walking.? Pull the Temple roof down about his head as the final act.   He's effin dangerous.  Nev

[kgwilson]

It will be hard to shake the dyed in the wool older ex Soviet Russians who believe the nightly BS served up on State TV. Even when real information is available they don't believe it.

 

The same can be said for the 50 million Trump nutters in the US who still believe the election was stolen despite not a single piece of evidence ever having been produced, the courts throwing all the appeals and lawsuits out & the lawyers being disbarred. Ultra right wing outfits are gaining ground everywhere. Look at Brazil.

 

Long term though hopefully there will be enough dissent and disgruntlement to force through enough change to reverse the "Russian Empire rebuild" policies of Putin & his idiot followers.

[Old Koreelah]

1 hour ago, onetrack said:

The news will gradually filter back to the average Russian from disgruntled soldiers…

Someone recently pointed out that every time the Russians lose a war, with masses of disillusioned and wounded soldiers going home, their government has been overthrown.

1905 after they were trounced by Japan.

1917 after they signed a humiliating peace with Germany and

1991 after they were beated in Afghanistan.

 

Presumably Putin’s regime knows this; the worry is how they intend to stop history from repeating.

 

 

[facthunter]

The Yanks sided with the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan. I doubt Russia would forgive THAT quickly and look at that place now. A total disaster.  Nev

[kgwilson]

The yanks have lost just about every war they have been in since WW2. They just keep fighting themselves at home with about 1.3 guns for every human alive & more than 1 mass shooting a day. Even 6 year olds are shooting teachers now. Their government changes every 2 years anyway so they don't need to get overthrown, though it was close a couple of years ago.🤐

[willedoo]

Russia is still playing musical Generals. Surovikin lasted three months before being demoted. Army Chief of Staff Gerasimov is now head of Putin's special thing. The rumour mill has it that Surovikin was thought to be gaining too much power by dealing directly with the little bunker man, and bypassing the other two drongos, Gerasimov and Defence Minister Shoigu. Surovikin will serve as Gerasimov's deputy. The Russians are saying that it will improve the combination of force. Having an air force general run the show was always going to be difficult for the army.

[kgwilson]

It looks like Wagners have had a small gain in Soledar with Ukrainian forces withdrawing so as not to get cut off in a pincer movement. Ukrainian defence was pretty thin here. Wagners still can't make any progress in Bahkmut though where they have been losing mostly ex Russian prisoners for months.

[Bruce Tuncks]

I never thought that overthrow in the US was close. You would need the army on your side, and they didn't have that.

And US army people have an oath to the constitution I think....  do russians have anything similar?  I know that WW2 germans had an oath to Hitler personally.

[nomadpete]

Wasn't our Aust military oath of aleigence made to the Queen?

[Bruce Tuncks]

I think that's correct nomad....   I hope its safe to assume the royals will never be our enemies. But if we become a republic, I hope that the oath will be to defend the constitution, and not some particular person.