Sanctions against Russia

[Jerry_Atrick]

Yes - Britain supplied tanks to encourage others to do so  Poland wants to supply a lot of the Leopards they have but we're waiting for more than a nod from Germany. Germany were naturally hesitant to be seen as a potential aggressor, but I also have a feeling there is some line of communication  they have open with Putin. Either way, they weren't going to supply without a commitment by the US. The US finally agreed and due to its unsuitability, is providing a token amount to shift Germany, and although the numbers are not enough, hopefully Poland will now step up and export some.. 

 

BTW - I am not suggesting the US were the problem

 

 

Edited January 25, 2023 by Jerry_Atrick

[willedoo]

4 hours ago, Jerry_Atrick said:

but I also have a feeling there is some line of communication  they have open with Putin

That sounds logical. When Scholz was East Germany's favourite West German Marxist, he visited the East at times. He possibly knows Putin from when he was in the KGB in East Germany. If he didn't know Putler, he certainly would have been followed around by him or his underlings.

[willedoo]

17 hours ago, kgwilson said:

The consensus though is that the German Leopard 2 is the best fit for use in Ukraine.

I wouldn't mind betting that in the post war environment, Ukraine would take a serious look at the Korean K2 as a unified main battle tank system. It's a very good tank and has a lot of advantages for Ukraine. Firstly, they would be free of U.S. or German control over their tanks. 

 

Adding to that is a lot of logistical reasons. Next door neighbour Poland is moving to the K2 and has a license production agreement with South Korea. Initially, South Korea is building and supplying 180 K2's to Poland, the first of which started arriving in December 2022. The license build agreement will see Poland build 820 K2PL's from 2026. Ukraine could have the potential to go into a joint venture with South Korea and Poland to acquire the K2.

 

Having the tank production plant next door would be a good thing, and also having tank repair facilities in Poland would make strategic sense in the event of the Russians have another go at Ukraine in the future. That might not be a likely scenario if the Russians cop a good flogging now, but it's good insurance to be able to train tanks out of the country to be repaired and maintained in a protected NATO country.

 

 

[willedoo]

An interesting quote from writer/historian Owen Matthews on Putin:

"He gained a fifth of Ukraine and increased the size of Russia by half a per cent. The price of his illusions was not only thousands of lost lives, but also a lost future for Russia."

[facthunter]

No one could have united  Eastern Europe better than Putler has managed to achieve and at the same time weakened his Counties position in the World as anything to be able to be relied upon. His WORD means NOTHING anywhere.  His CONTROL the only thing he operates by is also precarious. He OWNS this Fracas and IF it had succeeded  be very pleased to accept the Praise. Like Trump It's really ALL about HIM, when the chips are down. He's YESTERDAYS MAN if ever he was anything  but a thug. and thief of the people's goods.  Nev

[willedoo]

Here's some random thoughts on the subject:

 

It seems to be widely accepted that Putin will not survive politically if he loses the war. If he wins, that's a topic for another time. But supposing Russia loses the war and has to give up all occupied Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. In that event, Putin would be gone for sure. The reality in Russia today is that there are no nice cooperative people in the wings to replace him. The replacement could be just as bad, worse, or at best only slightly less bad than Putin. Since February 2022, Russia has degenerated into a national insanity where paranoia and delusion has been normalised. The extreme right wing press is now the new normal MSM in that country.

 

In an environment like that, there's always the risk that another whacko will try the same thing on Ukraine at a later date. If the Russians are pushed out of Ukraine, NATO membership won't come overnight, and could take years. So how to deter future Russian aggression, at least until Ukraine is a NATO member? There's lot's of things that could be done, but maybe there's some merit in using neighbour Poland as a cloak. Poland and Ukraine have a very good relationship which has become even stronger as a result of the war. Why not have strategic reserves of arms and equipment stored in Poland under the umbrella of NATO. An attack on those facilities would be an attack on NATO, yet the equipment could be sent to Ukraine very quickly in the event of another conflict.

 

The U.S. already has a similar thing in Israel with a huge underground storage of ammunition and weapons. If Israel finds itself at war and runs short of ammunition, the U.S. sells them more which is conveniently already in Israel. I have an idea they had to dip into it during the last Gaza conflict. There's no reason the same thing couldn't be done for Ukraine. The West will have to accept that Ukraine has lost a lot of blood and treasure to shore up Europe's backyard fence. In my opinion, they owe Ukraine big time, and not the other way round.

 

Maybe other ways in the short to mid term post war future would be to have some joint force agreement with Poland. Sort of like a one way exchange programme; no NATO troops in Ukraine, but Ukrainian units in Poland doing permanent joint operations. If they had some Ukrainian squadrons of F-16's, plus some artillery units and a tank brigade or two in Poland, it would be a good reserve to bring home quickly if Putler MK2 tried stepping over the boundary.

[willedoo]

This pooch earns his keep. He was found as a stray by Ukrainian border guards who named him Banana because of his shape. He accompanies them everywhere and when he hides behind them, they know there are incoming artillery rounds on the way. The dog's superior hearing works like an early warning system.  

 

Edited January 26, 2023 by willedoo

[Jerry_Atrick]

Handsome canine, too..

8 hours ago, willedoo said:

It seems to be widely accepted that Putin will not survive politically if he loses the war. I

I would say in the eyes of his still alive opponents - you know, the ones on your side until the time is right - he has already lost it. If the war ends with him still holding onto Crimea, he has not met the restated aim, which is to liberate the Donbass regions. If he manages to hold on and recapture what he has lost, his ardent opponents will remind the public, and importantly the machinery of the Kremlin, when the time is right, they the stated objective was to take Kyiv, and stop NATO's advancement, and if Turkey relents, he will have failed at both, as well as the "de-Nazification of Ukraine", whatever that means. Also, if it was to take advantage of a fragmented and disunited west, he has manged to achieve the exact opposite. These are the outcomes his real enemies won't forget. He isn't stoopid at all..

 

The problems is, his opponents and successors are made from the same system that he was.. They are not whackos - they are products of a whacko system. When I last left Aus, I sold my beloved Jackaroo to a Vietnamese or Thai chef. We got talking and it turned out he lived in Israel for about 15 years before he moved to Australia. I asked him what living in Israel was like, and he loved it. He said, despite the media, it was a place you could leave your doors open (I guess he was there in the 90s; I sold him by machine in 2006), apparently crime was low, the social life and nightlife was excellent, schools are great, etc etc.

 

So, I asked him if it was so great, why did he leave? His response was after the Russian Diaspora moved in, they place went south and it became more crime ridden and the whole atmosphere changed and became more hostile. I guess it is the same was we perceive immigrants do to our countries (well, some of us, anyway). It is purely anecdotal,  but I livced in Phialdeplhia for about 9 months all up.. and there was a big Russian population there. I can honestly say, that in the 'hoods where they lived, I was probably most fearful.

 

However, as a young bloke in Melbourne back in '83, I dated a Russian lass (she was in the country maybe 2 years when I met her). Her family was one of the most lovely families I have met; her father was a very hard worker and doted his family, and integrated into the commuinity very well.. In fact, I met her at a local/paddock  Aussie Rules match, where her father brought them to integrate with their new society.

 

What has this got to do with the above? Well, if my anedotal observations that 2/3 of my experiences (1 hearsay, admittedly) are of a problematic culture, then it is likely to be a cultural thing.. and not a whacko thing. I have watched the local Russian reaction to the war, and, being in banking we have a few Russian mathemagicians also commenting and showing us Telegram and other social media. One of them made the point that national proide is a strong thing even when they know their country is doing the wrong thing. I asked them about the de-Nazification of Ukraine.. their response was to keep the Russians out.

[nomadpete]

9 hours ago, willedoo said:

Here's some random thoughts on the subject:

From my position as a MSM fed pleb, the future looks very grim whichever way the current Ukraine war goes.

The variables I see are....

 

1. Ukraine 'wins' its territory all the way back to the Russian border. Or it doesn't.

 

2. Mr Putin stays boss in Russia. Or not.

 

3. Zelensky stays boss of Ukraine. Or not.

 

4. NATO grows to the Russian border. Or not.

 

Either outcome of item 1 doesn't guarantee peace.

 

Either outcome of item 2 doesn't bring peace.

 

Item 3? Sadly, if Zelensky loses his job, it is likely Russia resumes ownership of Ukraine, and the rest of Europe is at risk of another version of the present war as Russia continues to reclaim all its USSR countries.

 

Item 4. If it happens, Ukraine likely becomes scene of Russia's alleged fight against the West, to exist.

 

None of the above scenarios make the world safe from nuclear escalation.

Edited January 26, 2023 by nomadpete

[kgwilson]

The Soviet union imploded because economically the USSR was bankrupt. They had spent 40 years building a nuclear arsenal, a huge military in terms of personnel and masses of equipment through a process of systematically stripping everything possible from the other Soviet republics without causing enough major dissent to fuel large internal rebellion. They had the best rocketry technology in the world, superb military aircraft and heavy tanks and the worst consumer goods and equipment imaginable.

 

Opening up Russia provided the perfect spawning ground for the rise of Oligarchs and massive corruption while the general populace slowly found better quality food and consumer goods from the West to keep them happy.

 

This was the perfect environment for Putin and others like him to work their way back in to gaining control and authority The Tsars had done this for centuries until dissent amongst the masses got the Bolsheviks in using Lenins philosophy as a cover. It took no time at all for the utter brutality to set in and control was established and once Stalin rose to the fore it reached fanatical levels with millions killed, imprisoned or enslaved.

 

Putin became emboldened with oil and gas reserves that Western Europe was gobbling up at ever increasing rates and the 2014 annexation of Crimea and support for the Donbas rebels caused nothing but a minor irritation from the West who basically stood by and watched.

 

Now Russias economy is in tatters. Putin and Oligarch mates have stripped the money from the country and they have been depleting the Soviet era build up of arms and equipment to the point where the next move is probably the last. Russias reserves are severely depleted but they do have a huge population to throw in as canon fodder. And there is the nuclear option although much of the old arsenal is probably inoperative.

 

So who will make the next move? Russia has been sending equipment and personnel to Belarus on the pretext it is for military exercises. Putin is desperate for any ally but Lukashenko who supports him is deeply unpopular with Belarusians most of whom share more affinity with their other neighbours, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine. There are only 9.4 Belarusians so it would not be hard for Putin to take control if Lukashenko was deposed. No wonder Poland is keen on building up its arms capacity and supplying Ukraine.

 

The token Challenger 2, Leopard 2 and Abrams M1 tank supply to Ukraine is useful in a logistics and training perspective but also as a possible deterrent as Putin has nothing that can match any of these. More are likely to follow once the infrastructure for them is established. Another go to take Kiev is pretty unlikely to succeed given they will have no element of surprise and even without the supply of other equipment and ammunition Ukraine will most likely beat them back.

 

It is 11 months since the start of the war. Another 12 months will hopefully see an end with the Russians pushed out and Putin gone. The problem the will be which other nutter will take over while the Russian brainwashed population continues to suffer.

[pmccarthy]

The more I view video from Russia, both covert and by interview, the more it is clear that the whole culture is deviant and alien to our values and our way of life. Sooner or later, even if in 100 years, their nuclear arsenal must be taken away from them and then they can learn to behave as part of the international community.

[red750]

Kick those idiots at the tennis with Russian flags out of the country. Particularly those ones with Putler's ugly face on them.

[kgwilson]

Especially Djokovics father who was saying Long live Russia in Serbian next to the dickhead with the flag with the other dickheads mug on it. Many Serbs are Slavic and they were the ones who created the Omarska concentration camp in the 1990. They had a policy of ethnic cleansing & 4-5000 prisoners were killed & their bodies disposed of at the camp. I'll bet Djokovics father was a supporter of the ethnic cleansing given his support for Putin.

[facthunter]

Big Rabble rouser about the last episode. You can't pick your relatives.  Nev

[Old Koreelah]

Many Serbs were raised on stories of their Croat neighbours helping Nazis commit atrocities against them.. I’ve watched Nazi film of Serbs being systematically shot and dumped into the river. Intergenerational ethnic hatreds run deep in that part of the world. A Croat brother-in-law told me of growing up in utter fear of reprisals from Serbs. 
 

Liberal democracies like Australia absorbed millions of people damaged by this sort of madness. As trump and his copycats have shown, it’s not hard to scrape off the veneer of decency to once again unleash man’s worst nature. 

[willedoo]

This article discusses Russia's wasteful use of tanks in Ukraine. Among other things,it mentions the high rate of barrel wear compared to artillery guns and howitzers, and the problems associated with replacing barrels. The fact that the Russians have used their tanks as artillery to shell enemy positions would account for the high number of Russian tanks captured by the Ukrainians. With a T-72 tank's HE shell having a range of 4klm, it puts the tanks in a vulnerable position close to the front.

 

https://wavellroom.com/2023/01/18/a-tank-is-not-a-howitzer/

[facthunter]

Tanks are your own personal crematorium. Not the way many would choose to die..  Nev

[Old Koreelah]

1 hour ago, facthunter said:

Tanks are your own personal crematorium. Not the way many would choose to die..  Nev

I once explored the interior of a Vietnam-era APC. Tried to fit into the gunner’s and driver’s seats but gave up. Got out fast with claustrophobia.

[onetrack]

We lost 7 blokes in one hit on an M113 APC on 12th June 1971. It was during the Battle of Long Khanh. Long Khanh was a veritable hotbed of VC and NVA bunkers and activity.

I was based at Courtenay Hill earlier in the year, but had moved back to Nui Dat when this APC disaster happened.

There were 3 APC's sent to check out reported bunkers, and they were spaced out as per protocol. Unfortunately, a number of "pogos" (clerks) from HQ Troop requested to go along for a ride in the 2nd APC.

So these blokes were sitting on top of the APC (because the APC's were stinking hot inside), when the first APC lost several Claymore mines (they were used as protection when in Harbour or Ambush).

The 2nd APC picked up the dropped Claymore mines and placed them on top of their APC (a common habit). But shortly afterwards, a VC or NVA soldier threw a satchel charge of explosive at the 2nd APC from alongside the track. This satchel charge would've been bad enough on its own - but it also detonated the collection of Claymore mines, thus exacerbating the blast.

All the blokes from HQ Troop died, and the 2 crew of the APC were killed, as well. There's a photo in the link below. This was the worst loss of life in an APC for the whole Vietnam War for us.

 

http://1csr.au104.org/stories/story-15.html

 

Edited January 31, 2023 by onetrack

[willedoo]

A couple of weeks ago the Russians started placing Pantsir air defence systems on top of multi story buildings in Moscow. This one on top of the Defence Ministry building has me wondering what is the purpose of the green camouflage net. It can't be to keep anything cool as it's still winter there. Is it to hide some details from public view?

 

Surely they're not that dumb that they think it will hide it from an attacking enemy. But then again....

 

[rgmwa]

Window dressing to.support the fiction that the enemy is at the gates?

[willedoo]

Apologies if this should be in the funnies section. Russia's Marker unmanned ground vehicles have arrived in the Donbass. No doubt just another pathetic propaganda exercise, and a complete piece of junk in my opinion. Maybe the plan is to deploy them, then attack with infantry while the Ukrainians are rolling on the ground laughing.

 

https://twitter.com/SamBendett/status/1621140036619223040

 

 

[willedoo]

It looks like it's got Lada shock absorbers.

[willedoo]

Even if they got the contraption to work, one $300 drone dropping a single grenade would take out the optics.

[kgwilson]

It would be OK for a picnic at the beach with 2 decent Esky's on the back.